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Surgeons Should Not Look Like Surgeons | Medium

Surgeons Should Not Look Like Surgeons

Why? Simply the one who doesn’t look the part, conditional of having made a (sort of) successful career in his profession, had to have much to overcome in terms of perception. And if we are lucky enough to have people who do not look the part, it is thanks to the presence of some skin in the game, the contact with reality that filters out incompetence, as reality is blind to looks.

How economists should dress

Strategic Data Analysis – May 1-5 2017 Washington DC | Event

Featured Presenters:
Yaneer Bar-Yam, President and Professor,
New England Complex Systems Institute

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Real World Risk Institute,
author of The Black Swan and Antifragile

Math, White Helmets, Election Forecasting, GW Bush, Kapish, John Gray, Kenneth Roth, Salafasism | Twitter

@nntaleb 3) Had anyone asked me if I met with a RUssian official, my answer would have been flatly “NO”. Permalink 3:37 PM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 2) He sat 3 seats down, partook of conversation but I didn’t focus on who he was. You only know when pple remind you of it (he just died) Permalink 3:22 PM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Meeting w/Russian Ambassadors w/o being aware: Just discovered I had dinner w/the late UN Russian amb in NY, Oct 24 w/o realizing. No plot. Permalink 3:20 PM – 2 Mar 2017

@mdvex This centralisation thing works well   Permalink 2:07 PM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Just added a chapter. For comments, thanks!   Permalink 1:03 PM – 2 Mar 2017

@NECSI What is #fragility? via @nntaleb, who will teach our May program on Strategic Data Analytics w/ @yaneerbaryam   Permalink 12:56 PM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb It took me a while to realize you can’t convince economists; but we can work on the dismantlement of the DC economic machinery.   Permalink 10:56 AM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb .@ottorosseforp @PZalloua To the contrary. Means STATISTICALLY “there is NO definition of Phoenician THAT matches tribes w/J1”. Kapish? Permalink 7:44 AM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Phenician expansion in Med, 1 mill BC did not export J1 gene, so there is evidence population was not Semitic. @ottorosseforp @PZalloua Permalink 6:36 AM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb J1 correlates with Semitic genes, does not equate with them. But absence indicates non-Semitic population @PZalloua Permalink 5:45 AM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb 1) Way to see our theory that Phoenicians, Assyrians & N Caananites were not Semites: J2, J2a (light Green) v/s J1 (dark Gr) @PZalloua Permalink 5:44 AM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb …and b****t is using a generic statement from some wisdom handbook that can apply indiscriminately to anything you don’t like.   Permalink 5:06 AM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Are there other societies where the person on top is not a risk-taker? How about devoid of rituals?   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:32 AM – 2 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Skin in the game, almost finished Permalink 6:13 PM – 1 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Mathematics and baldness.   Permalink 3:29 PM – 1 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Fake news tricks: NYT distorts my words, making it look as if I (not them) made an association w/”shame”. @realDonaldTrump is right. Permalink 7:20 AM – 1 Mar 2017

@nntaleb Adult Math olympiads @MoMath1 Permalink 6:41 PM – 28 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The clip summarizes my problem with scientism/GMO charlatans   Permalink 10:43 AM – 28 Feb 2017

@nntaleb A quant/engineering approach. @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 7:11 AM – 28 Feb 2017

@nntaleb We should have special treatments/cures for neo-cons.   Permalink 7:02 AM – 28 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The more you go into the tails, the less people & things should look like they way they should look like   Permalink 6:37 AM – 28 Feb 2017

@nntaleb MSM = propaganda; Insult to 9/11 victims.They are wittingly/un promoting White Helmets in spite of evidence it is AlQaeda cover w/Saudi PR.   Permalink 10:11 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Mini-Probability Mooc (6 min) Continuous Time Election Forecasting   via @YouTube Permalink 10:00 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Levantine roots, Part 2 (plus some grammar) @PZalloua Permalink 9:02 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Levantine roots, Part 1. @PZalloua Permalink 9:01 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb For those into Orthodox lent, this is the Greek calendar. @ektrit @sustain05 @nanexllc Permalink 8:53 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb We also want answers from GW Bush on WMD. And the “victory”. And the “stabilization” of Iraq/Afghanistan. And the costs of the war (s).   Permalink 6:49 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Nero was slandered w/he performed as “actor” which was the worst possible thing a Roman could do. @robby_red @fidempor @SnappyIsSoHappy Permalink 6:01 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Justinian had to get a special permission to marry Theodora because she was actress & daughter of actress @fidempor @SnappyIsSoHappy Permalink 5:49 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@CristiVlad25 @nntaleb I made an animated review of Fooled by Randomness. hope you like it :)   Permalink 4:50 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Kapish is not from italian capisci but from the Kalabrez Kapish. Kapish? @BJ_Lancaster @bat8bat8 @SantiagoPombo Permalink 4:49 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Imbecile, a generalization is ALL not MOST or “usually”. Kapish?@SantiagoPombo Permalink 4:04 AM – 27 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Actors are usually not very bright people; they don’t know how to act like actors. Permalink 5:48 PM – 26 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Simple rule: When you see “conditional” in science, exclude all subsets that fail to meet the condition. @badral @DrHasanAlam @hayfarani Permalink 5:05 PM – 26 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Can’t believe doctors can be argumentative & fail to see the diff between conditional & unconditional probability @DrHasanAlam @hayfarani Permalink 4:50 PM – 26 Feb 2017

@nntaleb A picture is worth a thousand integrals. @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 2:30 PM – 26 Feb 2017

@talraviv Does Medium have a Mega-Recommend button? This by @nntaleb put words to a nagging feeling I’ve had since college   Permalink 12:42 PM – 26 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Thanks @CutTheKnotMath for training the clarity of mathematical thinking. It is like weightlifting for the mind. Permalink 11:57 AM – 26 Feb 2017

@nntaleb You want to send your kids to college so they come back intellectually stronger, not pre-bureaucrats. #Antifragile   Permalink 11:08 AM – 26 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Wittgenstein’s ruler (in Fooled by Randomness): Under some conditions the table will be measuring the ruler than the other way around.   Permalink 9:13 AM – 26 Feb 2017

@nntaleb .@DrHasanAlam @colorfulfool he is clueless doesn’t get your question in particular or controlled variable in general Permalink 1:44 PM – 25 Feb 2017

@nntaleb You visibly aren’t grasping the point.Substance may correlate w/style, but CONDITIONAL on same record removes correl @DrHasanAlam @hayfarani Permalink 10:46 AM – 25 Feb 2017

@nntaleb You didn’t understand the text. Read again & look up “conditional” (everything else equ). Then think. Then tweet. @DrHasanAlam @hayfarani Permalink 10:32 AM – 25 Feb 2017

@nntaleb A Saturday without mathematics is like Mediterranean food without garlic. @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 9:33 AM – 25 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The paper on responses in biology, volatility in feeding.   Permalink 7:33 AM – 25 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Given their track record, I would recommend hiring academic economists and do the OPPOSITE of what they advise. For they aren’t even random.   Permalink 1:28 PM – 24 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I just published “Surgeons Should NotLook Like Surgeons”   Permalink 6:52 AM – 24 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Interesting discussion around the speculation of link between lifespan hearbeats/breathing and Jensen’s inequality.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:01 AM – 24 Feb 2017

@nntaleb From: 1986 New Declassified CIA Memo Presents Blueprint for Syrian Regime Collapse   via @libertarianinst Permalink 3:43 AM – 24 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I made a deal with John Gray where I would stop writing nontechnical books and just promote his as they read as if I wrote them myself.   Permalink 4:24 PM – 23 Feb 2017

@nntaleb We can visualize the solution obtained via calculus (optimization). @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 3:49 PM – 23 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Me neither   Permalink 8:54 AM – 23 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Mr @ianbremmer please take students and visa-immigrants (former students whi stayed) from sample and show us results. Permalink 8:29 AM – 23 Feb 2017

@normonics The Minority Rule. cc @nntaleb   Permalink 6:36 AM – 23 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Friends, thanks for the votes. Here is the passage from Skin In the Game. Business Plans shd not look like Business Plans Permalink 6:29 AM – 23 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Statistical BS: compare cohort to cohort. “Muslims” in US (Iranians & Leb Shiites, Indo-Pakistanis) don’t compare to Sunni Muslims outside.   Permalink 5:48 AM – 23 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Precisely: as self-righteous imbeciles like Tatchell spreads fake numbers they become consensus @PeterTatchell @lecaester @GreenRupertRead Permalink 5:44 AM – 23 Feb 2017

@john_f_hamer “The problem of knowledge is that there are many more books on birds written by ornithologists than books on birds written by birds.”—Taleb Permalink 3:24 PM – 22 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Facts: 1) The press is free. 2) Media is acting as propaganda. Now explain analogies to Hitler/Fascism that don’t lead to reverse. #Idiots Permalink 1:44 PM – 22 Feb 2017

@nntaleb For those into stochastic volatility, a result (maybe for book with @DrCirillo) Permalink 8:10 AM – 22 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Fucking idiot, you mean the nonviolent AlQaeda? @PeterTatchell @Darius1296 @GreenRupertRead Permalink 7:52 AM – 22 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Nobody represents more the intellectual fraud faking *doing good* as Kenneth Roth. Good news: Frauds get eventually terminally busted.   Permalink 6:38 AM – 22 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The good news is that the 2nd order effect is the strongest summary, locally convex or concave 97% of info. @normonics @YanKan_ Permalink 6:35 AM – 22 Feb 2017

@nntaleb A deeper view of Antifragility:primacy of n-th order effects, all these (Asymmetry, convexity) are from nonlinearity=2nd+ deriv. @YanKan_ Permalink 6:29 AM – 22 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Libs can’t get #Antifragile as they think in 1st order. Exmpls: to themmin wage income; comfort health; variation stability; Permalink 6:00 AM – 22 Feb 2017

@sanjayk_13 @rhianna @nntaleb It’s not hyperbole, the trader most likely to blow up with a spectacular loss in the real world will win Permalink 4:58 PM – 21 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Also EPA colluded with Monsanto to cover up cancer data   Permalink 1:58 PM – 21 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Schools have “trading” competitions. W/o enough risk/skin in the game, incentive is to shoot for Probability not Exp. The WORST trader wins. Permalink 1:10 PM – 21 Feb 2017

@nntaleb UN Ambassador Samantha Something & Obama’s State Dept conveyed and acted on fake news.   Permalink 10:42 AM – 21 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Will give 2 lectures May 4 (& 5) in the NECSI program.   Permalink 6:46 AM – 21 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I can kapish uproar ag. one suggesting pedophilia. But where is the reaction ag. salafascist preachers who condone it? TwoFaced PseudoLibs! Permalink 6:32 AM – 21 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Worse: they defend, cover up for, even embrace Salafasism.   Permalink 5:49 AM – 21 Feb 2017

@nntaleb To teach someone a real skill, teach him how to take risk & fail. He will never learn this in school. No nonrisktaker can ever teach it. v 2 Permalink 5:43 AM – 21 Feb 2017

@nntaleb If you want to teach someone a real skill, teach him how to fail. He will never learn it in school. Permalink 6:45 PM – 20 Feb 2017

@nntaleb My friend Peter @PeterJTanous managed to cross James Bond with a Catholic priest. A thriller.   Permalink 6:28 AM – 20 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Mildly mistranslated: Greeks should be “Hellenes”, Hellenistic diaspora.   Permalink 5:08 AM – 20 Feb 2017

Naive empiricism, terrorism & Ebola

Published on Feb 14, 2017
How “evidence” about the risk of terrorism as shown in the NYT and by BS vending journos makes no sense statistically. Explains the difference between classes using principles of Extreme Value Theory EVT without any math.

Lindy, Noah Smith, Sufis, Trump, Greenwald, Pinker, France, Tversky | Twitter

@CCavafy We the Alexandrians, the Antiochians, the Selefkians, the countless other Greeks of Egypt & Syria, & those in Media, Persia, & all the rest. Permalink 5:23 PM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The smell of mathematical inequality on Sunday evening. @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 5:05 PM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Other elementary thing *Former Belgian PM* doesn’t get is Pax Americana in W. Europe, Pax Russiana in E. Not his EU ShmEU bureaucratoBS Permalink 4:46 PM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb For those who can’t see it, here is the link between fat tails and weightlifting   Permalink 8:07 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb He came to take my risk/probability class, and look what happened.   Permalink 8:03 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The point is that you NEVER NEVER gauge wars by FREQUENCY but by INTENSITY. Kapish? Permalink 5:03 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb What I mean by Lindy: she and only she is the real expert.   Permalink 4:24 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The Lindy effect is Lindy compatible. “Use laws that are old & food that is fresh”. Thanks Constantine @ctheofilopoulos Permalink 4:15 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The beauty of mathematical visualization early in the morning @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 2:50 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The hundred years war killed between 2K and 22K per year. Kapish? @surfnm Permalink 2:28 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb This former PM of Belgium doesn’t get that this is, simply, wrong. “Wars” used to be small squirmishes.   Permalink 2:06 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Anyone who reads Noah Smith has a problem   @DominikLeusder @Noahpinion Permalink 5:36 PM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I was expecting that Trump would reset the tax code, foreign relations, etc. But I never expected that he would reset the media. Permalink 5:28 PM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Particularizing from the general; vastly worse @Debradelai Permalink 1:34 PM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 2) For Salafis, Islam is immutable law, incompatible w/state. For Sufis, it is ~spirituality, compatible with secular state. @DalrympleWill Permalink 10:05 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Sufis are the future. Unfortunately 1 generation of Saudi Money in Turkey, Syria, etc. eradicated them. Luckily surviving in Central Asia.   Permalink 9:48 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Imbeciles think in words! A universal principle that holds AT ALL SCALES is rigorous. Think before tweeting. @IvarsNeiders @mikeharrisNY Permalink 8:00 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 3) Humanities academics are rejects w/no common sense substituting thinking w/universal slogans, destroying student’s discernment, reasoning Permalink 7:15 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 2) Love of humanity doesn’t force you to open your living room to ALL passers by. But you may invite a few. Complex systems are stratified. Permalink 7:02 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Education & intellectualization make people think in Universal terms for local problems, with no awareness of Scalability. #SkinInTheGame Permalink 6:32 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb At starbucks drinking “ethical water”.   Permalink 8:01 PM – 17 Feb 2017

@john_f_hamer @nntaleb “We love imperfection, the right kind of imperfection”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (revised 2016 edition) Permalink 1:48 PM – 17 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Friday squid ink and mathematics with @a_lesniewski Permalink 10:23 AM – 17 Feb 2017

@nntaleb For Math lovers, #FF Follow Friday: @CutTheKnotMath who makes you work very hard. Permalink 8:52 AM – 17 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I watched the press conference. Trump played the press like a violin. Calling this “Meltdown” proves that Huff Post is low-IQ propaganda.   Permalink 5:25 AM – 17 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The unnoticed fact revealed in the press conference: The @realDonaldTrump is heavily lawyered & has lawyered up even more post-Flynn. Permalink 4:49 AM – 17 Feb 2017

@AssalehAmer heuristic: when @nntaleb describe something to be bullshit the odds are overwhelmingly it’s bullshit   Permalink 8:33 PM – 16 Feb 2017

@john_f_hamer “People reveal much more about themselves while lying than when they tell the truth.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (2016) Permalink 1:02 PM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I blocked Louise Mensch for 1) mental incapacity/instability, 2) playing cheap games of sensationalism. @morningj @LouiseMensch @ABarnardNYT Permalink 12:25 PM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Journos & other idiots are confused as hell by the Donald Trump; don’t get that he may be the *only* recent leader who never had a boss. Permalink 10:52 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 3) And Saying let’s not fight terrorism because past incidence is low is like saying let’s remove pilots since planes don’t crash @foxjust Permalink 7:28 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Here is the difference between terrorism & falls from ladders seen from Extreme Value Theory @foxjust   Permalink 6:36 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Nice reference to my work @foxjust but Fishhoff NEVER made the distinction Thin/Fat tails, used Extreme Value Theory, mixes tails & variance   Permalink 6:25 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Maybe I should attend the class and make random arguments about what the aphorism meant.   Permalink 5:26 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@john_f_hamer “Anyone who likes meetings should be banned from attending meetings.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (revised 2016 edition) Permalink 5:36 PM – 15 Feb 2017

@nntaleb …imitating the choice of the most overweight male at the table…   Permalink 3:08 PM – 15 Feb 2017

@nntaleb True left (Greenwald) is vastly more rigorous than pseudo-left (NYT, Monsantoistic journos). You can agree or at least disagree with them.   Permalink 4:57 AM – 15 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Virtue signaling is the information age’s rediscovery of simony . Permalink 1:42 PM – 14 Feb 2017

@john_f_hamer “If you want strangers to help you, smile. For those close to you, cry.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (revised 2016 edition) Permalink 12:45 PM – 14 Feb 2017

@nntaleb pseudo-left pseudo-intellectual pseudo-lib pseudo-science pseudo-feminism pseudo-Dionysius the Aeropagite.   Permalink 12:25 PM – 14 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Mystery of why past planned cities worked: Alexandria, Antioch, Constantinople (semi-planned), Kairaouan, Fustat/Cairo. Where they planned?   Permalink 12:18 PM – 14 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Minority rule and asymmetry of demand!   Permalink 9:20 AM – 14 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Naive empiricism, terrorism & Ebola. Please don’t read the NYT.   via @YouTube Permalink 8:42 AM – 14 Feb 2017

@mns yo @nytimes @nytopinion @NickKristof your thinking is faulty, cc @nntaleb Permalink 11:57 PM – 13 Feb 2017

@nntaleb We think alike. From Silent Risk (this was 2014)   @ProbFact ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:28 AM – 13 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Knows how to handle the difference between evidence of absence and absence of evidence within probability theory.   Permalink 8:01 AM – 13 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Interesting story but it doesn’t seem to show in the DNA. They must have converted to Islam. Hitti, Salibi, etc. were fiction writers.   Permalink 3:44 AM – 13 Feb 2017

@nntaleb in 2016, Obama accepted ~11000 Sunni refugees and ~72 Christians frm Syria. Mr @ali_w_ali I am blocking you next to avoid twitter pollution. Permalink 9:06 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Please vote on this tweet (twitter polls don’t allow pictures). Thanks Permalink 8:50 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Nigel is spot on. True refugees are *persecuted* minorities, the ones Obama blocked (he accepted 20x more Sunnis in relation to ratios.)   Permalink 8:47 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Friends, question for our Fat Tails book with @DrCirillo. Which graph is nicer, top or bottom? Permalink 7:41 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb This book represents FooledbyRandomness & bullshit vending at its best: Pinker boy misrepresents/did not even understand his OWN data.   Permalink 6:59 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Genetics is a dream for bullshitphobic historians. Looks like Phoenicians & Assyrians (not Babylonians) were “Indo-Europeans”. @PZalloua Permalink 5:10 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Now, you have to choose between 2 competing chief executives. Which one should you pick? The one who looks “professional”? Permalink 5:04 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Baal invented sushi so people can pay a lot of money for a meal without gaining weight. Permalink 5:07 PM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb You have to choose between 2 surgeons in a hospital. Which one should you pick? The one who *looks like* a surgeon or the other? @jamessaft Permalink 12:45 PM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Economist hit a point: when you compare them in effectiveness to stamp collectors, philatelists get angry.   Permalink 5:54 AM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Mr @HalSinger after so much economics you need to relearn elementary properties of binary relations, such as symmetry many toddlers know. Permalink 4:09 AM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Mr @HalSinger, if someone who has “apocalyptic worldview” likes my book, does it make it apocalyptic? If a prisoners reads my book… #IYI Permalink 3:55 AM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Squid ink and Pugliese wine to rest after REWRI 4 Permalink 5:44 PM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Is this true? How do we compute iatrogenics?   Permalink 4:23 PM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb REWRI Day 5: “All markets are illiquid when you really, really need them”. Permalink 10:58 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@KS1729 @nntaleb thought of you when I saw this. complexity of the world vs successive generations of “risk management” Permalink 10:29 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 3 instructors at the same time.   Permalink 10:23 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Managing the economy without economists is like managing a war without stamp collectors.   Permalink 10:21 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb .@poetmorgan1 Expressing yourself in words doesn’t mean you thought “in words”. Kapish? And stop tweeting for Baal’s sake. Permalink 9:40 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb BTW I never say that mathematicians think in “numbers” but in axioms, objects, and inequalities: Permalink 4:33 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 2) Hence low risks of violence/ unrest. In spite of academics barkings, risk of fighting is much lower under Trump than it was under Obama.   Permalink 5:01 AM – 9 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 1)Cond. Prob. Conditional on having voted Trump, odds of owning gun is, say 30%. Conditional on owning a gun, odds of voting Trump is >90% Permalink 4:34 AM – 9 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Indeed.   Permalink 6:42 PM – 8 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Real World Risk-4, 50 pple: 1) 8 weightlifters (max DL 470), 2) 6 pple who returned, 3) 4 Italians, 4) 1 Canadian and …. 5) no vegetarian   Permalink 12:55 PM – 8 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Never expected that Antifragile would end up being influential in the White House. But I hoped for it.   Permalink 8:37 AM – 8 Feb 2017

@ScottAdamsSays Everything Taleb says is smarter than whatever you were thinking on your own. Especially if you are a word-thinker.   Permalink 11:31 AM – 7 Feb 2017

@nntaleb “There’s A Global Riot Against Pseudo-Experts” Nassim Taleb Exclaims “This Is Not About Fascism” | Zero Hedge   Permalink 10:07 AM – 7 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Which is why I never read and after a mistake never write for @prosyn   Permalink 5:06 AM – 7 Feb 2017

@nntaleb There is currently a global reaction against the pseudo-expert. Who is the real expert? Lindy.   Permalink 2:35 AM – 7 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Fooled by Randomness *precedes* Drunkards walk @investomedico . Kapish?   Permalink 5:13 AM – 6 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I systematically decline invitations to conf. discussing “populism” as if it were some type of pathology. Mere term “populism” misframes Permalink 7:51 AM – 5 Feb 2017

@nntaleb By indiscriminately attacking Trump, even when he does the right thing, the pseudoleft is elevating him & self-destructing. #Antifragile   Permalink 3:44 AM – 5 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Remember.   Permalink 1:52 AM – 5 Feb 2017

@nntaleb One of my yet unfulfilled predictions is to see the true left fight the pseudo-left over Trump’s foreign policy.   Permalink 6:21 PM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Syriacs are high J2 and very little J1, meaning Northern Mesopotamians had no intermixing w/Semites. Only language. @zaliin @PZalloua Permalink 6:11 PM – 4 Feb 2017

@BBassem7 This is an amazing exchange. Very courageous of Trump. #FoxNews Permalink 6:09 PM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb If an American entrepreneur is stupid enough to relocate to France, good news. It would improve the average of both counties.   Permalink 11:27 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Greek mytho has Europa from Tyre to Crete, Arcadia frm Ugaritic pple (Arwada). Bible has Canaan son of Ham not Shem. @wunderbearer @PZalloua Permalink 10:52 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 2) In other words the claims by Jews that they are different tribe from Cannaanites even if lang same appears true. @wunderbearer @PZalloua Permalink 10:42 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 1) Looks like the notion “Canaanites as Semites” is bogus empirically. Both Torah & Greek mythology say they aren’t. @wunderbearer @PZalloua Permalink 10:41 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb More interestingly, the probability of Koura people being of Arab origin is less than 1 in 1,000,000 @PZalloua Permalink 9:42 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Distribution of Genes of Greek-Orthodox in Koura (Amioun) appears *identical* to Greek Islands/Crete @PZalloua Confirms Byzantine theory Permalink 9:29 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Artificial stupidity comes w/ overriding the Lindy-compatible in favor of some bias invented by some ignorant nerd like @r_thaler Permalink 8:57 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb A. Tversky once said he didn’t care about *artificial intelligence*,he studied *natural stupidity*. I prefer to study *artificial stupidy*. Permalink 8:26 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 1)Historical Intrigue du jour: Phoenicians & Assyrians likely not of “Semitic” ancestry, yet spoke Semitic lang. @PZalloua will have more. Permalink 5:18 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@BBassem7 #Saudi tweep refers to the terrorist that attacked the Louvre as a “hero” Saudis are not covered by the Trump’s ban. Permalink 2:45 PM – 3 Feb 2017

@normonics Demonstrating the IYI allergy to discontinuities. Tiny changes often beget qualitative shift.   Permalink 9:30 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Actually, they would call it… “the left”.   Permalink 5:30 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I wonder what the Enlightenment people would call a “Left” that’s authoritarian, repressive, disciplinarian, & despotically normative. Permalink 5:06 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb . @arbedout Before tweeting, think in 2nd order of why I made such statement. Check amazon, it’s #1. Permalink 4:57 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Milo’s book is the highest selling book in America, 2 month before pub! #Antifragile   Permalink 4:48 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 1) Peace: Top or Bottom? Morrocan gov pro-Israel, but popul. hostile. Iran gov hostile, but not Iranians. Which peace is easier? Think Long Permalink 4:46 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Antifragile   Permalink 3:07 AM – 3 Feb 2017