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Tag Archives: convexity

Health benefits from fasting that was NOT associated with reduction of calories.

Thursday, June 25, 2015

Good news, but people in Medicine are a bit slow in getting the very notion of 2nd order effect /Jensen’s inequality and disentangling mentally the first from the 2nd order effect. Which is why few are getting Antifragile or the more general sensitivity to scale of a distribution. In the paper, Longo and associates saw […]

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It is a huge, huge deal that battery costs are falling rapidly…

Monday, May 4, 2015

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/594853060184182784 https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/595213136505933824

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Another problem of averaging under convexity…

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Another problem of averaging under convexity. Traditionally we have had *on average* slightly more than 2 children per woman (net of child mortality), which is the rate people converge to today. Except that in the past ~2 out of 10 children survived, today 2 out of 2. It means that we no longer have selection […]

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THE PERFECT TEMPERATURE IS CONVEX….

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

THE PERFECT TEMPERATURE IS CONVEX. Recall that pulmonary ventilators (for patients with weak or sick lungs) are more effective if one varies the intensity (x+dx, x-dx instead of the constant previously assumed optimal x). Also recall that convexity (Jensen’s inequality, antifragility) is a general rule in natural settings rather than the exception. It just hit […]

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OVERTREATMENT as short volatility…

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

OVERTREATMENT as short volatility: Huge vindication of the argument of Chapters 21 and 22 on the convexity of iatrogenics (only treat the VERY ill): Mortality is convex to blood pressure. Spyros Makridakis found this graph from the Farmingham study. The implication is obvious: only treat the seriously ill (and overtreat them!). But for every person […]

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