Category Archives: Twitter

Celibacy, Data, Inequality and Wealth, Kilkenomics

CELIBACY and SKIN IN THE GAME (Facebook)
Imagine working for a corporation that produces secret harm to the collective, in hiding cancer-causing risk which kills the thousands but is not (yet) fully visible. You can alert the public, but would automatically lose your job and there is a gamble that the company’s evil scientists would disprove you, causing additional humiliation. You know the history of whisteblowers and realize that, even if you end up vindicated, it may take time for the truth to emerge over the noise created by corporate shills. You have nine children, a sick parent, and as a result of the stand, the children’s future is compromised. College hopes are gone. You feel severely conflicted between the harm to the collective and guilt from harm to your progeny. Thousands are dying from the hidden poisoining by the corporation. You would like to be a hero but it comes at a huge cost.

Society likes saints and moral heroes to be celibate so they do not have family pressures and be forced into dilemmas of needing to compromise their sense of ethics to feed their children. Some martyrs like Socrates had young children (although he was in his seventies), and overcame the dilemma at their expense. Many can’t.

The fact that people with families are vulnerable has been remarkably exploited in history. The Samurai had to leave their families in Edo as hostages, thus guaranteeing to the authorities that they would not take positions against the rulers. The Romans and Huns partook of the practice of trading permanent “visitors”, the children of rulers on both sides who grew up at the courts of the foreign nation in a form of gilded captivity. The Ottomans relied on janissaries who were extracted as babies from Christian families and, having no family (or no contact with their family), were entirely devoted to the Sultan.

Etc.

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/664871621354721284

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/664484066977292293

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/664159993617391618

INEQUALITY AND WEALTH (Facebook)
In the more rural past, wealthy people were not as exposed to other persons of their class. They didn’t have the pressure to keep up with other wealthy persons and compete with them. The wealthy stayed within their region, surrounded with people who depended on them, say a Lord on his property. Except for the occasional season in the cities, their social life was quite vertical.
It is in mercantile urban environments that socializing within social class took place. And, over time, with industrialization the rich started moving to cities or suburbs surrounded with other people of similar –but not very similar –condition. Hence they needed to keep up with each other, racing on a treadmill.

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/664086988811862016

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/663659172756606976

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/663643237459062784

Thanks @Kilkenomics. Only economics conference without uptight and constipated technocrats. https://t.co/TBxSz2izs5
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) November 10, 2015

Fascinating talk on #BlackSwan #antifragile @nntaleb – great to meet you @kilkenomics – great insights @davidmcw pic.twitter.com/LIbzXnGjm6— Shauna O’Boyle (@Shaunaob) November 10, 2015

Jotted down at Kilkenomics why neuroscience, evolutionary theory, behavioral econ, genetics, etc. are full of BS https://t.co/DZhn9cEkh4— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) November 9, 2015

Enthralled by @peterfrankopan ‘s book The Silk Roads and by @davidmcw ‘s @kilkenomics pic.twitter.com/ecvGEXGdXd
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) November 9, 2015

Fooled by Researchers https://t.co/lxOaNOWnwP
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) November 12, 2015

Becoming an academic if you like the pursuit of knowledge is like becoming an airport mechanic if you like flying. #uninterestingdetails
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) November 11, 2015

Here is the sheet of simulations where I show to be skeptical of big data, DNA promises, etc. IN PROGRESS. https://t.co/nEfq1EgSpg
— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) November 10, 2015

Irish Beer, Red Meat, Gamma Functions, Gini, Life Expectancy, Kuala Lampur, Data

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/662680049863237632

There is a debate around the perceived toxicity of red meat and bacon. (Facebook)
Regrettably few researchers get the point that you need to include *frequency of intake* in the testing rather than just the average intake (a point belabored in Antifragile). Everything nonlinear depends on second order effects.

How often matters much more than how much.

Populations in history have tended to eat meat irregularly ( the Greek ate meat only on sacrifice days) but like lions and other hunters/carnivores they gorge on it during these episodes. Orthodox Christians are vegan around 200 days a year, but they feast on fatty meat during feast days.
Having taken a look at the paper I can safely say that the authors missed the point. The report is based on statistical confounders.

Incidentally Monsanto missed the point with the crops that are genetically engineered to produce their own pesticides. As these crops release the pesticides continously, rather than by bursts, they are effective enough to represent a risk to your health, but not enough to harm the pests.
Jensen’s inequality, once again.

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/662627962248896512

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/662256614078967808

Many people keep boasting that we tend to live longer than our ancestors using the misinterpreted measure of life expectancy. (Facebook)

Life expectancy doesn’t tell you how LONG people live.
It mostly tells you how many children fail to survive. So reducing childhood mortality when it is high extends life expectancy much more than efforts aiming at making people live longer. For instance bringing childhood mortality down from 30% to what we have today, close to 0, extends life expectancy by about 25 years –which is the bulk of the gains since the middle ages.

If you want to really measure how long people live, use the expectancy at 40.

For those into these things, this is the perfect illustration of the beautiful concept of ergodicity.

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/661842761163739136

Halloween, Mini-Certificate, Beirut, Employees

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/660216033349775360

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/660182249858428928

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/660055825054957568

The Mini-Certificate

MINI-CERTIFICATE IN REAL WORLD RISK MANAGEMENT*

One-week intense workshop: Feb 22-26 2016, New York City, 9 AM-5 PM

Nassim N. Taleb will deliver about half the lecture and sign the certificate

2 day program (no mini-certificate), $2950*

5 day program (with mini-certificate),  $7400*
(Early signup discount $2200 and $5900 respectively before Dec 15 2015)

* Inaugural price

The venue is expected to be the Princeton Club of NY in Midtown Manhattan or an equivalent outfit.

Note: Discussions include no equations, but a lot of concepts and pictures

http://www.realworldrisk.com/

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/660050334543273984

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/659449114191523841

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/658987521074925569

The minority rule explains the new Halloween (and why Europe will eat halal, why GMOs bust) https://t.co/aqvZRfOBil https://t.co/MLqXhg53Ji

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 30, 2015
After all this (secret) unremitting work I finally completed my small personal time machine. Future vs present. pic.twitter.com/RFMjs3k7Nx

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 30, 2015
Finally, our Mini-Certificate in Real World Risk Management anti-BS anti-Nerd approach. https://t.co/MOQV9AvJmY

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 30, 2015

First book lecture in French; In Beirut with French Lycée classmates attending. pic.twitter.com/B6dm6dXANY

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 30, 2015
My point about Switzerland isn’t that it doesn’t have a government. What It doesn’t have is much of a *central* government: *subsidiarity*.

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 28, 2015
Employees are more risk averse, they fear being fired more than contractors do being sued. @ArthurB https://t.co/2VlvtOsuia

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 27, 2015

Halal, Eataly, Firms & Slaves, Coase, Strong Filtering, Flaneuring, Tails

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/658225528793661440

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/658263753339850752

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/658424106384277504

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/658448988555902977

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/658772186748948480

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/658773841435611136

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/657227011698663424

STRONG FILTERING as GENERALIZED FLANEURING
This page is not about finance except when the idea generalizes. Here it helps us connect flaneuring to successes such as those of Buffet.
The best thing is to not have to do anything *as a default*. So one commits in those cases that are way too obvious.
+ No schedule except when you can’t do without
+ Have no personal assistant.
+ Have no office, or only use one when strictly necessary.
+ Only write things that you find compelling.
+ Take only those offers that you can’t refuse.
—
So I figured out something about the success of Munger-Buffett. It is not in the strategies they run, but in their very, very, very strong filtering.
Simply it is generalized flaneuring. Charlie Munger: “We have no system for estimating the correct value of all businesses. We put almost all in the “too hard” pile and sift through a few easy ones”. “Warren (Buffett) talks about these discounted cash flows. I’ve never seen him do one”. (in Tren Griffin’s book)

The implication is that the nuances of the “genre” as strategy matter less than filtering. Because of such nonlinearity, Buffett’s performance is no longer correlated with that of the strategy.

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/657511851580923904

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/657166498679627776

Why Europeans will eat Halal before long; how morality came about; how GMOs are going bust: The stubborn minority https://t.co/aqvZRfx0qN

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 25, 2015

When I die I want to end up at Eataly in Milan: books, food, wine, & people. pic.twitter.com/YbwTuyKCNl

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 25, 2015

Why do firms exist? Because of the need for slaves. https://t.co/2VlvtOsuia

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 25, 2015

Here is Coase’s seminal paper on the theory of the firm. He missed the point of employee =risk control via SITG https://t.co/NH7WcAM8J4

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 26, 2015

Skin in the game workshop, 4 papers on SITG by PhD students at Zurich’s ETH. pic.twitter.com/Ff9PvqfA16

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 26, 2015

If you trust Italy’s GDP nmbrs, I have a bridge to sell near Napoli. Italy’s GDP fughedaboud theundergroundeconomy https://t.co/Vk3rHCZPeK

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 26, 2015

Strong Filtering as Generalized Flaneuring @trengriffin https://t.co/NjeaStJStQ

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 22, 2015

Wrong reasoning with the left tail/systemic risk. We don’t use the argument with plane crashes! https://t.co/z8spFgkiMO

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 23, 2015

Latest paper with @dottorpax on method to to do stats with fat tail that are not infinite. https://t.co/SlnjBNZXuH

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 22, 2015

Gini Coefficients, Powerlaws, Violence

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/654993514594443264

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/654728063775735809

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/654669667571658752

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/654060744951078912

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/653979493040803840

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/653909131783458816

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/653148001926553602

How to (Not) Estimate Gini Coefficients for Fat Tailed Variables by Nassim Nicholas Taleb :: SSRN http://t.co/SbWSuLd1La

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 16, 2015
Another paper @dottorpax on dealing with pseudo-powerlaws https://t.co/6azrRfHBhz

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 15, 2015
Slides for my flash talk at the Bloomberg QuantSeminar this evening at 5:30 (open to public w/rgstrtn): https://t.co/aWrw8rZtxz

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 15, 2015
Paper on Violence with @dottorpax , new version. No, no, no basis to say violence from wars has declined. https://t.co/DKkubeyYfo

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 13, 2015
Executive Workshop on “Complexity with Fat Tony” with @yaneerbaryam @Necsi next January http://t.co/oHr94wOnkx

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 13, 2015
The idea of e-learning misses that pple go to school to socialize; just as idea of e-book misses that pple read a book to hold an object.

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 13, 2015
Just as restaurants’ true mission is to sell wine (not food), French foreign policy’s true aim is to sell weaponry. http://t.co/3zBORDiZNN

— NassimNicholasTaleb (@nntaleb) October 11, 2015