Monthly Archives: February 2016

Religion, Pasquale Cirillo, Costco, Olive Oil, Narcissism, Gene Editing, Clintons

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@wcsoto “Religion isn’t so much about telling man that there is one God as about preventing man from thinking that he is God.”
N. N. Taleb
@nntaleb Permalink 8:44 AM – 13 May 2015

@nntaleb 2nd accepted paper this year w/Cirillo.
We need a paper on statistical properties of squid ink to have a good y. https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/697796849713967104   Permalink 7:04 AM – 11 Feb 2016

@nntaleb The problem with mental clarity is that you need to have mental clarity to understand what it means. Permalink 6:56 AM – 11 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Costco buys it in Italy @ArrogantMonkey Permalink 6:19 AM – 11 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Any olive oil expert in the room? Great to see that Costco, a large corp, doesn’t cheat.
https://c1.oliveoiltim.es/library/ucd-2010-report.pdf   pic.twitter.com/UMKDaPhlGr Permalink 6:00 AM – 11 Feb 2016

@nntaleb My understanding of narcissist is that they think they are the center of the world/others are objects, bt they DON’T show it like sociopaths Permalink 11:56 AM – 10 Feb 2016

@yaneerbaryam Top U.S. Intelligence Official Calls Gene Editing a WMD Threat https://www.technologyreview.com/s/600774/top-us-intelligence-official-calls-gene-editing-a-wmd-threat/#.VruTWntnw5w.twitter   Permalink 11:45 AM – 10 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Answering questions on gamblers ruin (technical) pic.twitter.com/sSRhV2c25J Permalink 11:42 AM – 10 Feb 2016

@nntaleb My understanding of narcissists is here: they don’t have empathy. pic.twitter.com/8HSuoFuzvP Permalink 10:56 AM – 10 Feb 2016

@nntaleb A narcissist tries to please pple to manipulate them,treats them like tools. Not the case w/The Donaldo @realDonaldTrump More like B.Clinton Permalink 10:51 AM – 10 Feb 2016

@bankofengland Nassim Taleb’s One Bank Flagship Seminar will be webcast live here http://goo.gl/XVRLiU   on 18 February at 16:15 hrs GMT #BoETaleb Permalink 8:48 AM – 10 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Additional reason I am more impressed by erudition than “intelligence”: to have erudition requires NOT reading the newspapers (#vianegativa) Permalink 8:07 AM – 10 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison used the State Department to promote Monsanto overseas/lobby against GMO-skeptics while Bill was paid by them. Permalink 7:56 AM – 10 Feb 2016

@nntaleb It hit me from the origin of the term halal that morality has minority dynamics
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf   pic.twitter.com/JMuRpmXiET Permalink 7:42 AM – 10 Feb 2016

@nntaleb In past Jesuist priests had monstrous erudition & practical sense; there was a huge demand by industry for few who left orders @JasonSCFung Permalink 6:51 AM – 10 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Clintons: As becoming a Jesuit priest to build a CV to get job w/~Goldman Sachs is unethical, so is using public office to get rich later. Permalink 6:43 AM – 10 Feb 2016

@nntaleb The Clintons managed to convince many, many people that they were not sumbags… but it is eventually like keeping a balloon under water. Permalink 5:27 AM – 10 Feb 2016

2-Country Paradox, Devaluation, Deutsche Bank, Law of Large Numbers Under Fat Tails, Charles Eugster | Twitter

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@nntaleb The certificate in Real World Risk Management: the decision of this month that required the most effort. pic.twitter.com/zt895wZt4Q Permalink 2016-02-09 15:14:00

@nntaleb Dottore Borghi don’t be upset but as FX deriv traders we banned trainees from talking to economists
@borghi_claudio @1svensktiger @went1955 Permalink 2016-02-09 14:58:00

@nntaleb This proves IMF bureaucrats make BASIC math errors. I tolerate errors in Italy because of the food. @borghi_claudio @1svensktiger @went1955 Permalink 2016-02-09 14:36:00

@nntaleb Incorrect. A currency “appreciates” by 100% its inverse will “depreciate” by 50%@borghi_claudio @LorenzoWVilla @braveheartmmt @went1955 Permalink 2016-02-09 14:29:00

@nntaleb When you change the sign you ALSO change the quantity (+150% <=> -60%). ELEMENTARY! @borghi_claudio @LorenzoWVilla @braveheartmmt @went1955 Permalink 2016-02-09 14:21:00

@nntaleb No wonder with such confusion economists blow up when they trade currencies. @borghi_claudio @EVonHoccheim @1svensktiger Permalink 2016-02-09 14:15:00

@nntaleb No, laws of mathematics are UNIQUE, except for BS vendors and economists. @borghi_claudio @EVonHoccheim @1svensktiger Permalink 2016-02-09 14:13:00

@nntaleb Devaluation for a currency != – reevaluation for another. See my text @1svensktiger @borghi_claudio @went1955 @lello_mascetti_ @a_presbitero Permalink 2016-02-09 14:06:00

@nntaleb It is deceiving & sensationalizing journalism to say 150% when it is only 60%. @felixsalmon @went1955 @NakedKeynes Permalink 2016-02-09 13:55:00

@nntaleb Which brings us to the 2-country paradox (Dynamic Hedg)
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/twocountryparadox.pdf
@felixsalmon @went1955 @NakedKeynes pic.twitter.com/rpr28LaYJn Permalink 2016-02-09 13:42:00

@nntaleb That is what I would call a 60% devaluation of the currency. @felixsalmon @went1955 @NakedKeynes Permalink 2016-02-09 13:28:00

@nntaleb Someone needs to explain to me very, very slowly what -150% means. I promise to listen calmly, without interrupting. https://twitter.com/went1955/status/697166056301977600   Permalink 2016-02-09 13:20:00

@nntaleb I had no concern over Deutsche B until the German Finance Minister stated we should have no concern over Deutsche B pic.twitter.com/w4YRC0fC8F Permalink 2016-02-09 08:08:00

@nntaleb I can tell the market is down & anxiety is high, without looking on the screen, when that day I am not trolled by finance people. Permalink 2016-02-09 05:49:00

@nntaleb Finally completed the “law of large numbers under fat tails”.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/LargeN.pdf   Permalink 2016-02-09 04:04:00

@nntaleb Look at the video of CHarles Eugster: much sharper at 94 (now 96) http://www.charleseugster.net/videos
@Pete_Spence Permalink 2016-02-09 03:30:00

@nntaleb Winning an argument on twitter is equivalent to being victorious in a debate on a barge in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. Permalink 2016-02-08 10:54:00

@nntaleb The Obama era is one of crony capitalism: Geithner blocked the punishment of JP Morgan, now paid for it. No! https://twitter.com/jamessaft/status/696714204800270336   Permalink 2016-02-08 07:25:00

@nntaleb Tell Hillary to give back the $335,000 she received from Monsanto’s top GMO lobby group – http%3A%2F%http://2Fwww.fooddemocracynow.org  %2Fnode%2F3432 Permalink 2016-02-08 07:04:00

@nntaleb If the word “Risk” comes from Arabic, then it comes from Aramaic; root means “share” or “portion” (of property).
https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/696304516405264384   Permalink 2016-02-08 04:36:00

Pranks, Dietwald Clauss, Saudi King Salman, Rizqo | Twitter

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@nntaleb My best prank was: lecturing in 1998 at the Tokyo Press Club faking a Japanese accent. Nobody complained, nobody laughed. Permalink 1:06 PM – 7 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Did you ever try to read in a public place a book with the cover mistakenly glued upside down? Permalink 12:39 PM – 7 Feb 2016

@nntaleb GMO lobbyist Dietwald Claus sneak into group vacation, live at your expense, then smear you. Despicable man. @dietwaldclaus @Bigsmiffy438 Permalink 11:31 AM – 7 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Liar, liar! I paid for Dietwald Clauss, GMO lobbyist “accidentally” meals/board 3 days, planned 2 m in advance @dietwaldclaus @Bigsmiffy438 Permalink 11:29 AM – 7 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Has anyone tried filling up a large mayonaise jar with custard & eating it with a large spoon while sitting on a bench in a public place? Permalink 9:36 AM – 7 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Let us ask his majesty what he is doing in Syria.
Saudi King Salman calls for others not to interfere in kingdom http://reut.rs/23RlIXV   Permalink 8:09 AM – 7 Feb 2016

@nntaleb From Skin In the Game: The Logic of Risk Taking.
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SITG.html
@business901 Permalink 5:46 AM – 7 Feb 2016

@AssalehAmer @nntaleb Nassim, I think they use “لا ضرر ولا ضرار” Permalink 1:52 PM – 5 Feb 2016

@nntaleb We don’t know what we are talking about when we talk about risk. pic.twitter.com/yS6utaf73h Permalink 5:11 AM – 7 Feb 2016

@nntaleb The Semitic root =>sharing pieces => property/endowment. Writing a piece showing “risk” is meaningless in modern sense.15min
@peterfrankopan Permalink 4:40 AM – 7 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Discovery du Jour: Origin of “risk” thought to be from Arabic (via rischio) in fact has Syriac-Aramaic origin: Rizqo pic.twitter.com/0Ehh5NiCLF Permalink 4:08 AM – 7 Feb 2016

Hippocratic Oath, Trump, Al Gore, Necessary Proofs, Heuristics, Squid Ink | Twitter

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@nntaleb When someone is described as “likeable” by those who know him superficially, suspect a crook. Permalink 6:02 AM – 6 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Many are conflating perfectionism (in one’s own work) for nitpicking ( misfocus in other people’s work). Kapish?
https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/695356660307525634   Permalink 1:11 PM – 5 Feb 2016

@nntaleb The version of the Hippocratic oath oath in Arabic Medicine, translated from Syriac by Ibn Hunein. pic.twitter.com/29XZ6ndIJf Permalink 12:27 PM – 5 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Does anyone know the Arabic Medicine equivalent of “first do no harm”? Thanks. Permalink 12:11 PM – 5 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Trump. Counter to impression. He actually wrote: protect your tail and let other risks take care of themselves. https://twitter.com/PlumpTurkey/status/695653052225748993   Permalink 9:02 AM – 5 Feb 2016

@nntaleb I need to send Al Gore #Antifragile showing science grew historically in convex tinkerging undirected. #BSbusting https://twitter.com/algore/status/695380751898931200   Permalink 8:03 AM – 5 Feb 2016

@nntaleb How math in economics is BS and how to produce NECESSARY proofs using general never specific proba distributions. pic.twitter.com/KETz4UTHbc Permalink 6:07 AM – 5 Feb 2016

@nntaleb 2/ Heuristics are functionally a different process as they prefer biases (i.e. slightly wrong) to noise (bias/variance). Apply to religion. Permalink 5:32 AM – 5 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Approaching elections as Via Negativa: pick the candidate(s) you DON’T want. Mine: Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison & Ted Cruz. Permalink 2:42 AM – 5 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Heuristics as processes are slower hence much less noisy than equations. Hence Burkean, small increments. https://twitter.com/normonics/status/695432487447580672   Permalink 2:31 AM – 5 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Back in NY, NY squid ink. pic.twitter.com/Im7thyuwfl Permalink 3:40 PM – 4 Feb 2016

Alex Reviews Fooled By Randomness

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Reader Alex submitted his review of Fooled By Randomness. Here’s a snippet and a link to his full review.

Fooled By Randomness (FBR) by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (NNT) made me rethink everything I thought I knew about how the world worked. Although it appears in the Business or Finance sections at the bookstore, its lessons are relevant in any area of life that involves risk, uncertainty, or luck.

Why do you recommend this book?

The central message of FBR is that people tend to incorrectly draw strong conclusions about why something happened. In particular, when looking at success in a variety of fields, people tend to discount the role of dumb luck.

http://www.lexaholik.com/book-review-fooled-by-randomness-by-nassim-taleb/