Monthly Archives: February 2016

Dynamic vs Static Ruin Problems

Leave a reply

Just found out (Facebook) I was not alone in finding something weird in economists not understanding dynamic vs static ruin problems.
It is a strange feeling to realize the answer to the question “Is it me or are they blind to something obvious?” is “no, it is not me”.
Murray Gell-Mann and colleague found the SAME point (though expressed in a more physical setting).

My literary treatment
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/rational.pdf

Gell-Mann and colleague:
http://phys.org/…/2016-02-exploring-gambles-reveals-foundat…

Exploring gambles reveals foundational difficulty behind economic theory (and a solution)
In the wake of the financial crisis, many started questioning different aspects of the economic formalism.

Nitpickers, Precautionary Principle, Dawkins, Squid Ink, Murray Gell-Mann,

Leave a reply

@nntaleb I’ve never met a rich nitpicker. Permalink 1:22 PM – 4 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Next Real World Risk Certificate June 6. Details.
http://realworldrisk.com/our_mini-certificate_in_detail/ Permalink 11:48 AM – 4 Feb 2016

@nntaleb 2/2 Finally clear. The Precautionary Principle is precisely for the situations when the TIME average is not the ensemble average. Permalink 10:57 AM – 4 Feb 2016

@nntaleb The ruin/benefit proof is assumptions invariant; most of economics is grounded in specific classes of distributions. pic.twitter.com/kQdHEIkxSe Permalink 9:10 AM – 4 Feb 2016

@nntaleb No more than “believing” in God(s) “as if” it (they) were nature. @01berto Permalink 8:59 AM – 4 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Some background to understand how the “rationalists” a la Dawkins have a nonscientific view of humans. pic.twitter.com/B4qACpgqgs Permalink 7:31 AM – 4 Feb 2016

@nntaleb Only squid ink I could find in Beirut (non homemade) was a risotto in an Argentinian restaurant! pic.twitter.com/8SamtpYyen Permalink 5:06 AM – 4 Feb 2016

@nntaleb 2/The problem of starting with the math then finding a problem as in economics (no constraint on BS) pic.twitter.com/DmDiI3R7mj Permalink 2:57 AM – 4 Feb 2016

@nntaleb News! Murray Gell-Mann found the SAME flaw in economics I did with prbm absorbing barrier.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/rational.pdf
http://phys.org/news/2016-02-exploring-gambles-reveals-foundational-difficulty.html Permalink 2:10 AM – 4 Feb 2016

@BugB And just coupla days ago @nntaleb spoke of better profitability of cheaper books ovr Kindle- http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/interviews/narendra-modi-is-an-ascetic-he-hasnt-disappointed-nassim-nicholas-taleb/articleshow/50813198.cms  https://twitter.com/dkberman/status/694639015736299520 Permalink 2:23 AM – 3 Feb 2016

Nassim Nicholas Taleb at ET GBS | The Economic Times

Leave a reply

What is your assessment of the oil industry?

Oil industry is going to be in a shambles. Solar is gaining market share.You have to find some argument for me to use oil if I can use free solar.The argument is solar is hard to store. Then your utility can get enough electricity during the day without storage and supplement it with oil in the night. That will chip away the market share of oil. You have talked about soccer moms (in the US) being bad example of parenting.

Is it because they don’t expose their kids to risks?

If you make a kid too comfortable he is not going to discover anything. You need to have enough variation but no risk. They think that no risk means no variation. Of course you have to minimise harm but have some little bit of roughing.

The schedule of a soccer mom is like a businessman. I want unpredictability in my schedule. They make children like office workers -5 o’clock this, 2 o’clock that. That’s not life.

We’re told you don’t like appointments..

Now I am here. Tomorrow I don’t have anything on schedule till I go and see the Bank of England in mid February . So I have two weeks without a schedule.

Full interview: India too democratic, but PM Narendra Modi forcing things to be done: Nassim Nicholas Taleb at ET GBS

Naan, Silent Evidence, Stoics, Narendra Modi | Twitter

Leave a reply

@nntaleb
Observe statistical ignorance at work in interpretation. Cruz has 8 delegates out of 1237, @realDonaldTrump has 7.
Permalink
11:11 PM – 1 Feb 2016

@nntaleb
“All technologies should be “old” technologies”.
Permalink
5:05 PM – 1 Feb 2016

@nntaleb
Narendra Modi is an ascetic, he hasnt disappointed: Nassim Nicholas Taleb – The Economic Times http://ecoti.in/Bj_Kba
Permalink
5:02 PM – 1 Feb 2016

@nntaleb
Here is the tutorial of why benefits don’t lower risk, for a nongeneral dist.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FoP32AesRzE
@normonics @AmirRAmini
Permalink
4:33 PM – 1 Feb 2016

@nntaleb
This is the most read article in (I was told) the most read English language newspaper in the world.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/India-is-too-democratic-but-Modi-is-forcing-things-to-be-done-Taleb/articleshow/50800166.cms
Permalink
4:08 PM – 1 Feb 2016

@nntaleb
Literary and Math versions. Proved that benefits NEVER offset tail-ruin probability. https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/rationality.pdf pic.twitter.com/Zo7TalFq6a
Permalink
3:52 PM – 1 Feb 2016

@nntaleb
Please please please help defeat Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison. Just to prove that voters aren’t suckers. https://twitter.com/food_democracy/status/694057212965031936
Permalink
11:04 AM – 1 Feb 2016

@nntaleb
2./2 Just as a Stoic is a Buddist w/an attitude problem, an Indian is an Eastern Mediterranean without our attitude problem.
Permalink
8:58 AM – 1 Feb 2016

@nntaleb
Coming from India to Levant, feel the diff betw Buddism and Stoicism (a Levantine product): “A stoic is someone who says “f*** you” to fate”
Permalink
8:55 AM – 1 Feb 2016

@nntaleb
This is explained at length in the general public book.
http://fooledbyrandomness.com/SITG.html
@zeroroguer
Permalink
7:14 AM – 1 Feb 2016

@nntaleb
Actually a bit more refinement in definition of \lambda slowly moving replacing x with |x|
Permalink
6:15 AM – 1 Feb 2016

@nntaleb
Cleaner pic.twitter.com/3KAfN53h1n
Permalink
6:01 AM – 1 Feb 2016

@nntaleb
Why uncertainty matters more than benefits: what looks like a proof FOR ALL probability distributions pic.twitter.com/6hE3pPxBnF
Permalink
5:55 AM – 1 Feb 2016

@nntaleb
8) Learning from Penrose. Thought Riemann surface was painintheneck for num integration. Central object for physics pic.twitter.com/k7soaneXO4
Permalink
6:11 PM – 31 Jan 2016

@nntaleb
Silent evidence: we think the earliest record of a discovery is the earliest actual discovery. #fooledbydata
http://www.ancient-origins.net/news-science-space/clay-tablet-reveals-ancient-babylonians-used-calculus-track-jupiter-1500-years-020720
Permalink
5:45 PM – 31 Jan 2016

@nntaleb
Or more like: 2100, 100 mill https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/693879496232009729
Permalink
11:33 AM – 31 Jan 2016

@nntaleb
Just as reaching 0 ↓ or ↑ produces ≠ results , getting to Lebanon from the East rather than usual West shows diff country. #framing
Permalink
11:32 AM – 31 Jan 2016

@freakonometrics
“Genetically modified mosquitoes released in Brazil in 2015 linked to the current Zika epidemic?” https://www.reddit.com/r/conspiracy/comments/42mhii/genetically_modified_mosquitoes_released_in/
Permalink
12:25 PM – 30 Jan 2016

@nntaleb
So journo @RichardDawkins “skeptical” abt religious practices, not skeptical abt the selfish gene, in spite of math. https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/692875333435981824
Permalink
10:03 AM – 30 Jan 2016

@nntaleb
Gigantic naan bread #onlyinbukhara pic.twitter.com/7pA4Xz5Syx
Permalink
9:33 AM – 30 Jan 2016