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Ergodicity, Immigration, Nudgers, Monsanto, Gold, Blue, Pedophrasty, Pinker, Harris | Twitter

@nntaleb Ergodicity part 2!   Permalink 2:12 PM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb He got ergodicity.   Permalink 2:08 PM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Of course.   Permalink 12:31 PM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 3) As a Christian Lebanese, saw the nightmare of uncontrolled immigration of Palestinians which caused the the civil war. & as a part-time resident of N. Lebanon, I am seeing the effect of Syrian migration on the place. So I despise these virtue-signaling open-borders imbeciles. Permalink 6:47 AM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The discussion is not about the invention of calculus, but about Leibnitz, the last of the real polymaths (although he didn’t lift weights), and how mathematics is something that one can pick-up later in life. Gabish? Permalink 5:48 AM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) OK, OK, my Indian friends. Rediscovered calculus. Works now? Permalink 7:33 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Leibniz was a legal philosopher who at the age of 26 decided to learn math, then (co)invented calculus.   Permalink 7:26 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) Controlled immigration is based on the symmetry that someone brings in at least as much as he/she gets out. And the ethics of the immigrant is to defend the system as payback, not mess it up. Uncontrolled immigration has all the attributes of invasions. Permalink 7:22 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@normonics It’s not just pol sci people. The idea that the scale of a system is relevant to its behavior is OBVIOUS; yet almost never accounted for.   Permalink 3:10 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb What intellectuals don’t get about MIGRATION is the ethical notion of SYMMETRY: OPEN BORDERS work if and only if the number of pple who want to go from EU/US to Africa/LatinAmer equals Africans/Latin Amer who want to move to EU/US Silver Rule in #SkinInTheGame Gabish? Permalink 2:05 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@Jeff_Fine Questions? Permalink 1:03 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb For real people, if something works in theory, but not in practice, it doesn’t work. For academics, if something works in practice, but not in theory, it doesn’t exist. Permalink 12:59 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) This illusion that one can work with abstract ideas WITHOUT embedding them is the reason “intellectuals” don’t get skin in the game. (thread w @ClaireBerlinski ) Permalink 9:44 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is some type of common reasoning defect shared by people in political “science”: they don’t get scaling “Democracy” is not scalable. They don’t understand my insults: it’s not about ideas but in what environments ideas can be practically executed #ComplexSystems   Permalink 9:42 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@Baloo1987 An article written by a toxicologist working for #Monsanto is then handed to regulators who then simply copy-pasted it into the EU regulatory review. The definition a revolving door. Unbelievable! #CIJsummer #MonsantoPapers Permalink 6:02 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Dorin Marghidanu’s Functional Equation   #FigureThat #math #algebra ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:43 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Hope @freakonometrics can comment, as a follow-up to our debate with @DrCirillo as to whether statisticians have considered such consequence of fattailedness. All comments, whether positive or negative, are welcome.   Permalink 2:53 PM – 29 Jun 2018

@GreenPlusAnE Congress set up non-profits to raise $ for @NIH & @CDCGov. They illegally hid info about their corporate donors. Meanwhile, US health experienced its worst decline in a century. Now they’re lying about it. Time for #skininthegame.   cc: @nntaleb Permalink 2:41 PM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Fraud Alert: QUORA ask Statisticians what they think of my work and get Unethical Mandari Narayan @neurostats to comment on anecdotes from Incerto, WITHOUT considering technical work. The fraud by Mandari Narayan sits for 3 y on the web. Comment on this!   Permalink 2:07 PM – 29 Jun 2018

@spyrosmakrid The initial results of the M4 Competition can be found/downloaded in   The ranking of the first half of methods can be seen below ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:46 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I’ve never been more excited to attend a conference! @NECSI’s #ICCS2018   Permalink 7:32 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The other counterintuitive aspect is that EVEN if Country X won EVERY past game, injecting a tiny bit of randomness into the system can make its probability of winning drop below, say, 10%. A tiny bit of randomness percolates quickly across the branches of the tree. Permalink 6:44 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is a set of probabilities that can give Germany 25% of winning without 100% probability of being in the semi-finals: that CONDITIONAL on making the semi-finals probability increases. However, the opposite holds: the higher up, the MORE 1/n. Gabish? Permalink 6:24 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Et cela continue   Permalink 6:21 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Very similar to elections. Under high variance, you go closer to 1/n probability per team, where n is the number of teams, with minor variations (except for the very bad teams such as Saudi Barbaria). The more uncertainty, the more distributed the bets.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:57 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Giving Germany a 25% chance of winning is a very arrogant statement, it is equivalent to giving Germany ~100% chance of making it to the semi-final. Don’t listen to bank research pple with no #SkinintheGame who talk about probability. Permalink 5:07 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Discovered something: negative kurtosis and negative kappa. Some distributions are thinner-tailed than the Gaussian (needs to be bimodal) Permalink 4:56 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Friends, thanks to the crowd-corrections @spyrosmakrid gave me a stay of execution. I got an extension. Permalink 5:13 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Les françaises et français commencent a aimer mon livre “Jouer sa peau”. Ils en ont marre de leur fonctionnaires. Permalink 4:47 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) Naturally it debunks some of the “nudgers” s.a. @r_thaler showing they don’t understand fat tails & probability. Permalink 4:00 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Friends, I was told in no uncertain terms by the editors & @spyrosmakrid that I get severely punished if I don’t meet the deadline for this paper (today). Please help find errors.   (cont) ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:59 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@StoolPoop I like that @nntaleb isnt left or right but rather local over global. I imagine he respects the harassing of pols in public. “Keep them close enough to kick them” Permalink 1:10 PM – 27 Jun 2018

@nntaleb If employees of UBS knew how to run simulations, they wouldn’t be employees of UBS, but customers of the Private Banking group of UBS. How can’t people think in 1 ½ order effects?   Permalink 9:44 AM – 27 Jun 2018

@Mangan150 The idea to eat a plant-based diet is based on 2 mistakes. 1. Blaming meat for what ultra-processed foods did. 2. Blaming cholesterol for what insulin resistance did. Permalink 9:31 AM – 27 Jun 2018

@nntaleb To prove to Spyros I am really working on it, here is the paper in progress. Friends can help with typos.   Permalink 8:06 AM – 27 Jun 2018

@nntaleb This is meta-Skin in the Game   Permalink 3:24 PM – 26 Jun 2018

@LucasVitorinoS3 ‘Homens fracos agem para satisfazer suas necessidades, homens fortes agem para cumprir seus deveres’ – @nntaleb Permalink 10:58 AM – 26 Jun 2018

@normonics If you’re concerned about what we’re doing to the climate by exposing it to a large amount of a non-novel agent You should be MUCH MORE concerned about GMO agr, as we are exposing ecosystems globally to massive amount of novel agents — including living ones that can replicate! Permalink 9:31 AM – 26 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Essay: Monsanto’s ghostwriting and strong-arming threaten sound science—and society   Permalink 5:43 AM – 26 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The heuristic is, simply, production of a commodity / volatility, signal/noise and you can see how much additional discovery/supply matters. Permalink 7:01 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I can understand that @JustinWolfers is just another academic living on charity; but surprised to discover that @neelkashkari is head of a Fed and doesn’t realize that existing gold stock is monstrous in relation to production. Who put him there? Permalink 5:26 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Quant Finance researchers meet Medicine Quants today: Permalink 3:36 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Antigragility: my lecktchur in 2 hours   Permalink 12:52 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb These idiots have never traded gold and seen forward contracts sold by producers. Permalink 12:46 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb In fact unlike with money supply, gold miners are distributed and in competition. Permalink 12:29 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb These 2 clueeeeeeeeless economists have no idea that the competitive mahket values gold in the ground as an asset with optionality. I mean clueeeeless. @JustinWolfers is particularly ignorant of everything.   Permalink 12:19 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@d_a_n Some things don’t scale. Consider how you react to a car blocking the road. Small community – I get out, say hi, ask if help is needed, chat happily for 30 mins City – I hoot, swear, call the cops, maybe resort to road rage (thanks to @nntaleb for the insight) Permalink 9:30 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb As I said the English “commoners” accept their GENETIC inferiority to the aristocracy but these hypocrites go on talking about political correctness with other commoners. Disgusting.   Permalink 9:26 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Background and solution Permalink 7:38 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@catoletters Robert Mueller was the biggest obstacle for Sept. 11 families who wanted to sue Saudi Arabia   Permalink 6:20 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Obama destroyed Syrian Christianity, something 1300 years of Arab rule didn’t do; Remember Christianity was born there, the NT was in the Greek of Antioch.   Permalink 6:16 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Mini-Lecture (5 min) today at BBQ (Bloomberg Quant Seminar) in Honor of Rabbi “Tony” Glickman, 1950-2018. “Life is Long Gamma” @DaliaGlickman Permalink 5:43 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb BTW to understand what is called “GMO”, see this   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 4:10 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A Canadian brewer, @SteamWhistle is being harrassed by shills for listing “GMO free” on its beer. Turned out it is illegal in Canada to say “GMO free” (without some disclaimer): who wrote that law?   Permalink 3:44 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@jj_mllr New Blogpost: How two tweets about a simple coin toss experiment by @drob and @nntaleb can cause an academic existential crisis: Coin Tosses, Markov Chains, and an Existential Crisis.   Permalink 2:40 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Finally, after 6 ½ years, someone found a mistake in Antifragile. Will correct ASAP. The ancients had a color for blue. All references on that are wrong.   Permalink 3:13 PM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Prove that limit Gamma[n,n]/Gamma[n]=½ as n->infinity Permalink 2:36 PM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Accidentally stumbling on a helpful identity on a Sunday morning… Permalink 9:48 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Big Ag using financially insecure journos/”sci communicators” to sell: GMO/Glyphosate = science HENCE technosalvation (pedophrasty: only they can help “starving children” ) Anecdote = “evidence based” Bezos got that better food distribution >>technoBS   Permalink 5:47 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@NicuMihalache #skininthegame, the book by @nntaleb starts gently and rather predictably for those familiar with the Incerto series (and his Medium articles  ) then it takes you for a series of spins so that you want to tweet every other paragraph Permalink 5:34 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb MONSANTO Charlatan Watch: ask BS vendor @mark_lynas to produce systematic safety studies. Also ask him why he is in favor of both GMOs and Glyphosate (except that GMOs are an excuse to >3x pesticides & fry your soil). Charlatan!   via @WSJ Permalink 4:54 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@HypPioneer @nntaleb weighs in scam artists exploiting children to get what they want politically (open borders, war, etc.):   Permalink 4:35 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Ralph Nader Asks Former First Ladies: Why No “Heartfelt Concern for Tens of Thousands of Children Killed or Seriously Maimed” by Their Husbands’ Wars? –   via @commondreams Permalink 3:18 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb All East Med citizens are nervously waiting for the selection of the new Byzantine Emperor. Permalink 3:42 PM – 23 Jun 2018

@thomas_quinlan Today’s word of the day: pedophrasty — the use of pictures of suffering children to advance an agenda.   This story via @zerohedge but term coined by the brilliant @nntaleb, here:   Permalink 3:31 PM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Let me dispell some mistakes. Do not conflate farniente with laziness. In the Med, idleness is never a virtue unless the person gets rich or does great things while exercizing it. That’s the difference with other cultures both further North and further South. Gabish? Permalink 12:06 PM – 23 Jun 2018

@ErwanLeCorre Ethically-evolved sports will avoid micro-agressions, turn sports fields into safe spaces. Next progress: kill the social-construct which is “competency.” The ultimate step: competition is elitist and inherently discriminatory. No more losers: EVERYONE WINS. Permalink 11:57 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Visually. We can also count the triangles Permalink 10:15 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@_benoux_ Exactly! I also like the clear distinction of @nntaleb on Sophrosyne (σωφροσύνη) vs. Rationality based on “graphs”, “facts” and “evidence”, all based on current state. Current state – one day – will collapse. It’s hybris to act on the presumption of immortality. Permalink 10:04 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb You can easily tell a Northener: he/she feels guilty doing nothing. Even doing nothing for them is programmed, labeled, and has to be learned using some Yoga instructor. Permalink 5:54 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Laura, but Naples for me is not monuments for tourists, but 1) narrow streets with laudry hanging from the window, 2) a f*** you attitude that permeates the place, 3) A (tiny) remaining Greek-Orthodox minority… Permalink 5:49 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Sorry, fughotaboud Genova, better choice than Venice. You need to find a place WITHOUT Goethe-inspired visiting Northerners who don’t know what sitting at a terrace doing absolutely nothing means. These include de-Mediterranized Northern Italians. Permalink 4:01 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb It always depends on the terrace. And I prefer Naples or Palermo.   Permalink 3:50 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@GuyMorant Attention manipulation. Le génial essayiste Nassim Taleb partage un cas troublant d’utilisation d’une photo d’enfant pour court-circuiter la réflexion. “Pédophrastie”, retenez ce terme.   Permalink 10:54 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Remember that just as surgeons don’t look like surgeons strong men don’t look like athletes in ancient Greek sculptures. Permalink 2:44 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Which is why it was necessary to coin the term “pedophrasty”.   Permalink 1:45 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb   Permalink 1:17 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb It continues… Mistake: he didn’t realize that people who really lift weights (instead of using machines) don’t have a thin waist. (cont)   Permalink 1:16 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #FF @CutTheKnotMath (Maestro Alex. Bogomolny) w/ whom just spent 3 h talking about Russian & NonRussian probability. Permalink 12:37 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Never speak ill of the dead. But one can stay silent about him if he CAUSED deaths. If he advocated the Iraq War/WMD nonsense, then without REPENTANCE, another regime change/war, one must stay silent. For extreme cases: damnatio memoriae יִמַּח שְׁמוֹ וְזִכְרוֹ Permalink 8:51 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) People here aren’t getting the aberration: +Book written in US; author in US; publisher in US; readers (of US edition) in US. +Printed in China <=> Chinese censorship. +Publishers & Authors find this NORMAL. This is one side of Globalism Globalists need to explain. Gabish? Permalink 8:32 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Note that my problem with Chinese printers was resolved amicably (they accepted) but I am SHOCKED that no other author had the guts to stand up to the weirdness Chinese censorship of a US book by a US author.   Permalink 6:34 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb If BS Vendor Pinker’s @sapinker’s book was a scientific paper, it would have been retracted. Pinker has not answered question w/@DrCirillo : Why is he making Richardson say something OPPOSITE to what he said? All his “evidence” reposes on that. Permalink 5:31 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@Zilvera1 Brilliant van @nntaleb over salafisme.The bureaucrats and representatives of the“elites” (Van Aartsen) are fooled by the label. They treat Salafism as just a religion –with its houses of “worship” — when in fact it is just an intolerant political system.   Permalink 5:10 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@market_fox An example of why “doctors should not look like doctors” @nntaleb   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:13 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb To summarize thread above, rationality is not about “beliefs” but actions, #SkinInTheGame. It is not scientific to evaluate raw “beliefs”. Gabish? Permalink 2:51 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@z3nblack Sometimes I find @nntaleb is standing against an army on his own. Then again, I realize these battles are not fought with guns or swords. One can project the power (& refinement) of their mind against the many, & the numbers *against* don’t matter. Interesting times to be alive.   Permalink 2:39 PM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The other problem with Charlatan @SamHarrisOrg is that he talks about “rationality” without even remotely knowing what it means. Charlatan.   Permalink 11:56 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@TMFStoffel This excerpt from @JohnCarreyrou’s Bad Blood shows Elizabeth Holmes carrying out a version of @nntaleb’s *Pedophastry* Dubious claims of a heinous act that are a smokescreen and weaken claims of real victims   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:05 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Christianity is not *only* 2000 y old. It is a mutation of >4K y of Mediterranean-Anatolian creeds, mysteries, and mythologies. And its structure dates from the early Roman republic. Atheism has no #Lindy to build on, continue and progress from.   Permalink 5:43 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@ggreenwald Is there any benefit or value at all in inquiring why these sorts of abuses generated so little attention and anger pre-2017, or should we just go ahead and ignore that question? See also:   Permalink 5:19 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Harris @SamHarrisOrg: style & content of the charlatan. 1 Arguments entirely strawman; engages in mocking for effect. 2 Imposture “neuroscientist” when he is just a journalist/writer: would a university/lab hire him as junior faculty in *neuroscience*?   Permalink 4:45 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Haha!   Permalink 3:38 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb For those who don’t get that Christianity is about church!= state   Permalink 3:24 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Arabism and the bigoteering by Arabists.   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 3:13 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) Religious statements are not epistemic (scientific, literal) claims, but risk-survival heuristics under incomplete understanding. Populations with the right risk heuristics survive. Others perish. 2) Christianity has a built-in separation church/state. #SkinintheGame   Permalink 3:10 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I just published “Pedophrasty, Bigoteering, and Other Modern Scams”   Permalink 1:45 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@rbarilla Maybe you still don’t “get” it. Without a proper vocabulary to describe unethical behavior, people cannot easily call out charlatans who exhibit such behavior. Given all of Taleb’s work, charlatans can now more easily be called out, including ourselves. Permalink 11:18 PM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I just published “Pedophrasty, Bigoteering, and Other Modern Scams”   Permalink 12:26 PM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Here is the text by Peter Henry Fonda   Permalink 9:23 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Remember the principle that we shd ignore actors’ own words, only listen to them when they mindlessly recite words written by pple with higher capacities of reasoning, when they impersonate much worthier humans. For the Romans, actors were the lowest form of human life.   Permalink 8:36 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@spyrosmakrid The paper with the initial results of the M4 Competition (with a small typo) can be found in the link   It can be also found in Science Direct shortly in the link   Good reading and apologies for the short delay. @robjhyndman Permalink 7:25 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A false accusation of rape has the side effect of inducing skepticism, causing genuine accusations to be taken less seriously. You are also harming the true victims. Permalink 7:16 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #SkinintheGame Permalink 7:07 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A light sentence is not sufficient. Under Hammurabi’s code, someone making a false accusation should bear the same penalty as if he were the perpetrator.   via @nypost Permalink 7:03 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Research by salaried laborers is becoming a rent-seeking citation ring consisting of large scale imitative rituals, with a decreasing number of results, an increasing cluelessness of participants, and a multiplication of useless rules. Permalink 5:45 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The antifragility from fragility equation!   Permalink 5:43 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@rma_adler @nntaleb Fantastic book, now my favorite gym shirt (self-designed). Best… Permalink 5:19 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@ektrit Factual persecution of Christians now enshrined in Canadian Law.   Permalink 4:17 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Andrew Gelman discussing the replication crisis: “There are 1 million scientific publications per year. Do we have one million scientific discoveries per year?” Permalink 3:57 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb My new policy is to respond to 10% of offenses, but hit > 10x harder. Better than responding to half the offenses, but hitting the victim twice harder. Exception is when I want to kill time in airports.   Permalink 1:29 PM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb With the statistical vigilante, the great Andrew Gelman and Joshua Miller @jben0 Permalink 12:54 PM – 19 Jun 2018

@sahouraxo The war criminal who oversaw the deaths of 500,000 Iraqi children, separating them from their families forever, now wants us to believe that he suddenly cares about children.   Permalink 11:06 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Work with @spyrosmakrid on weather/climate   Permalink 5:37 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Excellent news! Now if someone labels you as “Islamophobe” for opposing Salafinazism, you can sue. But try to squeeze more, a lot more out of them.   Permalink 4:10 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@drjohnm @EJSMD has called the #COI of clinicians being employed one of the greatest COIs. < As @nntaleb wrote about, if you want to own someone, employ them. Recently heard in the doctor’s lounge: “Shh. they are listening.” Said in jest but…   Permalink 3:51 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb This idiot @matt_blackwell is a pol “scientist” doing “statistics” & didn’t get that news isn’t spreading because a minor actress is complaining abt her car being burned, but because @Tesla. Would the news spread if it were one of the other 180K? #IYI   Permalink 3:43 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) There is this myth of “long run” data is thin tailed because of aggregation and “Central Limit”. A lot of BS. Just like “democracy”, “populism”, “racism”,”enlightenment”, the term “Central Limit” is uttered by parrots clueless of what they are talking about. Permalink 3:14 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) There are tests to see how Central Limit works: Summing data (say weekly returns) should produce thinner tails. Not the case. Permalink 3:07 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Nice example of #SkinInTheGame   Permalink 3:10 PM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Page 2, luckily there is no picture of me this time.   Permalink 11:29 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Thanks Shant. I am tired of people who come to my twitter account, dedicated to BS busting, expecting to hear some feel-good motivational sh*t. Permalink 7:46 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Milke Lawler @mikeandallie has done a grrrrrrrreat job explaining the Central Limit BS to his children. Preasymtotic behavior is CENTRAL.   Permalink 6:30 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb This is the kind of JUNK that has destroyed firms, social science/economics. CLT works at various speeds under fat tailed distributions.   cc:@spyrosmakrid   Permalink 6:24 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) The Markov chain: the expectation is 4 periods for one, 6 for the other. It is ONLY counterintuitive then you are trained/selected to think in Static terms. Permalink 4:17 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) This is a counterintuive property, an illustration of why you need to use DYNAMIC thinking into things that are dynamic, not STATIC. (cont)   Permalink 4:10 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There are 2 types of pple: Those who think in STATICS, those who think in DYNAMICS. Problem w/”intellectuals” & other idiots like @R_Thaler and @CassSunstein who become policymakers is that they can’t think in 2nd steps. Schools mismeasure intelligence w/low dimensional tests. Permalink 3:31 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb As a general rule: the more you institutionalize rules of ethical behavior that should be voluntary (say anti-racism, anti-sexism), the more they will be used as a cover for unethical actions. Moral: remove all diversity rules for the sake of diversity.   Permalink 2:33 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@AllonMessenberg My father always said: “If you go to work every day, you have no time to make money!” Permalink 11:18 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@MisterNuance Zakaria is a textbook example of what @nntaleb warns about: a fake “expert” who pays no price for being wrong.   Permalink 11:09 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There are 150K-200K car fires per annum. You take one event & an emotional statement of an actress & turn it into a statement about the safety of @Tesla. And this is 2018. I am blocking any commentator who doesn’t get it. In this and other similar situations. Finito. Permalink 8:08 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@CutTheKnotMath … a counterintuitive property of coin-tossing: If Alice tosses a coin until she sees a head followed by a tail, and Bob tosses a coin until he sees two heads in a row, then on average, Alice will require four tosses while Bob will require six tosses …   Permalink 5:35 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Proper approach: count the rate of these things for @Tesla, compare to other auto-makers, & adjust by other safety statistics. I can’t believe that 18 years after Fooled by Randomness this type of bulls**t is still rampant. Another rule: Never listen to actors except on acting.   Permalink 3:56 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2-a) Every time I return from the W. Med it hits me there is *something* intense & sophisticated that’s different in the E. Med (i.e.,+Armenia/Georgia), reported since Byzantium. Turned out: The SILK ROAD & that Persian thingy Convinced @PZalloua to read @peterfrankopan’s book. Permalink 2:46 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is no argument in favor of pedophrasty that is not pedophrastic. (Circularity).   Permalink 8:33 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) One only criterion for (material) success: not having a schedule. Permalink 12:44 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Barbara @chicaderock, please read books BY Seneca, who was the real thing (a doer), not something ON Seneca by some library rat with a modern perspective. They will miss something essential.   Permalink 12:05 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Moronic @hardsci, just 1 and we know which one it is.   Permalink 12:00 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A reminder that any argument (such as the one now used for illegal immigration) that is supported by pictures/narratives of children is called PEDOPHRASTY. Actually, use of children should weaken an argument. Permalink 6:48 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Corrected mistakes Permalink 4:13 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) The carpenter fallacy: do you hire a carpenter to understand the odds of a sequence at the roulette table? Or a probabilist? Moral: the more advanced a nondeterministic science the more it becomes the domain of the applied probabilist. Genetics is a probabilty problem. Permalink 2:16 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) The geneticist Pierre Zalloua visiting me in Northern Phoenicia, with Mount Lebanon in the background. THREAD: on the carpenter fallacy in genetics to follow. Permalink 2:08 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@ThePradosh When you are halfway through #JackDaniels & start to read work by @nntaleb, you realize what #Millennials are truly are. #bedofprocrustes Permalink 11:21 PM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Convexity in Medicine: How Pharma cheats with the “evidence” (aside from P-hacking) cc:@MichaelSagnerMD Permalink 11:21 PM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Just a reminder that Noah Smith @Noahpinion is a a pure BS Vendor before you read him on anything related to anything (s.a. Theranos & Skin in the Game). Gabish?   Permalink 10:00 PM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The best surprise: a brand new gym in a converted mansion that belonged to a cousin of mine… Permalink 10:18 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2/2 There are high demands to perform, indeed!   Permalink 6:16 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb OK, OK. I found a local gym with barbells & a squat rack. Rushing there.   Permalink 6:14 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb We should de-anonymizing the “peer-review” process: referees can be harmfully stupid or vicious w/o accountability. This idiot tried to reject paper w/@DrCirillo because he couldn’t translate that 4 page 8½ by 11 compressed 1-spaced =12 pages double-sp 6½ by 9. #SkinintheGame Permalink 4:26 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Further, the same applies to “arm” and “hand”. Permalink 2:37 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The plot thickens: In Greek leg and foot are also πόδι, In Farsi both پا, but there is a more marked difference in Romance languages (gamba/piede) although pes in Latin can mean both. Permalink 2:31 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Semitic Philology du Jour: Like Phoenician, Aramaic, & Hebrew, the Lebanese lang. still uses the same word (ijr, rgl) for foot and leg in spite of 170 years of (failed) Arabization (foot in Arabic is قدم).   Permalink 12:48 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@oneraindrop A complex system has failed to act as expected by its designers, but has instead exhibites behavior that no one expected it to exhibit Permalink 7:17 PM – 14 Jun 2018

@thyagjs An important point from the SITG book by @nntaleb For those who do things, it is harder to talk about what they do. Reality doesn’t care about tawk. It is full of pauses and hesitations. Clear, non-hesitant speech is the domain of non-doers. Permalink 6:36 PM – 14 Jun 2018

@Mangan150 Here’s the most famous nutritionist in America, Walter Willett of Harvard, defending the use of seed oils, saying that new data that says they’re unhealthy isn’t relevant. Good example of why I no longer listen to these people.   Permalink 5:56 PM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb On the main difference between East Med and West Med (except for Provence) called here “milk of lions”. Permalink 9:35 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) You cannot separate the Med diet from frequency. 1-FASTING Greeks were vegan 210 days. 2-Meat was eaten at festivals, in Yuge quantities, mostly FAT 3-Breakfast is a recent invention 4-“Dinner”=mostly mezze 5-Byphasic sleep 6-Hill/stairs climbing all the time 7-No seed oil Permalink 8:56 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) Main lesson from the retraction (NEJM paper on Med diet): + Medicine is mostly (nonstandard) statistics + Medicine is abt convex dose-response NO expertise in biology/medicine will make up for it. PS- My paper on frequency/convexity in medicine was accepted. #Antifragile   Permalink 8:29 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb In Northern Phoenicia for the Weekend. Permalink 8:22 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Actually, the real story is that @KarlreMarks was caught plagiarizing, then reacted exactly like a real plagiarist: he followed the maximally dishonorable route, digging then digging more. Permalink 2:53 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A new argument   Permalink 2:23 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Try to be predictable to your friends and unpredictable to your enemies, rather than the opposite. Permalink 1:41 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Here it is   Permalink 12:02 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@sergioschloros This expression is recorded by in Homer “The proper meaning of ἀνανεύειν is to express dissent or refusal by throwing back the head, opposed to “κατανεύειν”, the corresponding gesture of assent or permission by nodding and bowing the head”   Permalink 10:36 PM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb “τσου” as the Mediterranean “no”: A sound like “ts” (sucked lip) , coupled with a single nod, meaning “NO” (& a certain familiarity with the interlocutor). J2 Haplogroup countries: Phoenicia, Malta, Greece, Cyprus, Turkey, Sicily, Calabria, Western Syria. Any other? Permalink 10:30 PM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I thought I was the only one to call low IQ tawkers low IQ tawkers.   Permalink 8:19 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@financequant Wow! Opioids turned out to be addictive. Something we thought known for millennia but was, in fact, cleverly hidden by Big Pharma, probably in collusion with the FDA.   Permalink 7:59 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@primalpoly This @Harvard president’s email to alumni defends discrimination against Asian applicants, in the name of promoting ‘diversity’. How will this read in 20 years?   Permalink 6:08 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Actually, “no” in Maltese, Sicilian, Lebanese, and various other Med languages is “tsk” Permalink 3:18 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Only in Sicily. The same hotel is famous both for housing R. Wagner when he finished Parsifal and for hosting a decisive mafia convention — in addition to being a preferred spot for various improvised and less improvised “meetings”. Permalink 12:55 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #LindyEffect   Permalink 2:07 PM – 12 Jun 2018

@nntaleb L3ayno zghiré ma bi kabbér, L3ayno kbiré ma bi zaghgher. Permalink 2:00 PM – 12 Jun 2018

@nntaleb L zghir ma bi kabbérak w l kbir ma bi zaghghrak. Permalink 11:15 AM – 12 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Taxi driver to Malta’s airport: Where are you flying to? Me: Palermo. Driver: vacation? Me: No. Meeting. Silence the rest of the journey. Permalink 1:49 PM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Interesting. Because it is true.   Permalink 12:21 PM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Returnless Risk? Permalink 8:28 AM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 6) To understand the Romans, essential Meds, who shunned doing things themselves but praised builders: “Caesar pontem fecit” means Ceasar *had a bridge built* (by others), not “built a bridge” as usually translated. Tr. into French would be “a fait bâtir un pont” not “a bâti”. Permalink 12:45 AM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Strange absence of Arabian genes (Nabatean, North & South), though possible flow from Maghrebis. Some Phoenician/Anatolian/Greek. Will increase sample & look at more sophisticated maps but still. Permalink 2:47 PM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The main difference is gh is pronounced 3, h with a bar=7, q = 2, x=sh … My only mistery: how did barra/juwwa get to them from Aramaic? Unless @safaitic is right and the Arabs who took the Maghreb spoke a branch of safaitic Permalink 1:08 PM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb He seems to be playing the agency problem of bureaucrats. People w/#SkinInTheGame are more interested in their fridge than remote (or even less remote) geopolitics & willing to settle w/peace as the default preference. Governments & bureaucrats have exact opposite preferences.   Permalink 6:44 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@JSuchJ “True success is exiting some rat race to modulate one’s activities for peace of mind.” Great life insight from @nntaleb foreword to Ed Thorp’s A Man for All Markets Permalink 4:10 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Amos Tversky, the research partner of Kahneman, remarked that he “merely studied in a systematic way things about behaviour that were already known to advertisers and used-car salesmen”. #Lindy Evil nudgeboys Thaler-Sunstein do the exact opposite.   Permalink 3:53 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Now the mystery: there were a lot of Maltese-Lebanese trading families in Leb: +Abella, Sabella, Mamo, Camilleri, Aquilina, Borg (Borji), Mcallef +SALIBA in both (my mother’s original last name is Ghosn Saliba, not Ghosn) Phoenician practice to trade w/cousins across Med ? Permalink 1:55 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Mr President, we shall start the invasion at 1400 hours.   Permalink 4:19 PM – 9 Jun 2018

@trishankkarthik Once you come to #RWRI, you will never see the world the same way again @financequant @nntaleb   Permalink 2:28 PM – 9 Jun 2018

@normonics I like to say: GMO is like everyone in the world crossing the street together at the same time Permalink 1:22 PM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 5) Another reason there large entities don’t work in the Med, causing a scale problem: you cannot be alpha if you are not free & self-employed (or the boss), an employee of Goldman Sachs is of a lower status than a local doctor. Permalink 11:22 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb You can tell Maltese is a bit more Arabic than Lebanese: ecclesiatical & nonArabic Semitic terms are often from Latin/Italian whereas Leb uses Aramaic (Ġesù not Yasu3, Eva not 7awwa…) Means Maltese didn’t have these words in their corpus, which must have been Siculo-Arabic. Permalink 11:02 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 4) For instance to be Med you need to both disrespect hard work and respect success, exactly the opposite of the “work ethics” & the worship of labor in the non-necessarily Prostestant North. Permalink 9:44 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@Safaitic @nntaleb is on point. Stories of a grand Yemeni-Arab exodus following the collapse of the Marib dam are simply mythology. In no other field are legends taken at such face value. The term “Arab” and “Arabic” were appropriated and reimagined by Islamic-period writers to refer(cont. Permalink 3:00 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Brownian Bridge: Pinning Beginning (i.e., past) and End (i.e., present) and looking at probabilities of what could have happened in between is very, very useful in GENETICS and LINGUISTICS. Even if you don’t have the exact proba, you get the structure. My solution here. Permalink 2:11 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) Which means the 2aysi( qaysi)-Yamani fights could be infighting, a division that mimics the Byzantine Green-Blue one –the Druze are almost entirely Anatolian, genetically closest to Kurds.–Yaman_rivalry   Permalink 1:41 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is (in history textbooks) a story of Peninsular tribes settling into Lebanon (largely from Yemen). But genetics don’t show it: the Yemen story is a fabrication. Now @Safaitic is hinting that these tribes were from the Southern Levant. This can explain linguistic puzzles.   Permalink 1:33 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 3) The French have tried to become Meds for 2000 years. They can’t: except for spots, Germanics speaking a Latin language. Permalink 2:45 PM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Point is; if you’re not Med, you’ll never understand the Mediterranean. You can spend 31 y in Oxford reading “classics”, all that sh*t, & still understand nothing about the Mediterranean. Now, if you’re not Med, the closest you’ll ever get is via squid ink & Moustaki. Salve. Permalink 2:40 PM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Malta Permalink 12:58 PM – 8 Jun 2018

@cindyturlevnon كل استاذ مدرسة بعيّط ع تلميذ و بيجبرو يقول نعم غلطان وبيكون عم يمارس تعنيف لغوي. نحنا بطور لڤنن رح نوزّع مناشير توعية للمدارس عن الالفاظ السريانية بلغتنا اللبنانية، كمان مندعي كل بي و ام ما يستخفوا بالإرث الكبير يلي اخدناه من السرياني لغة جدودنا. #TurLevnon Permalink 9:40 AM – 8 Jun 2018

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