The Black Swan Report

(Please avoid posting links (except if extremely necessary). Please say what you have to say directly. Assume you are having a conversation with others. Thanks).

via (Please avoid… | Facebook.

CORRECTION

The notion of “achievement” *devalues* life into a tournament.

(Modernity)

via CORRECTION The… | Facebook.

NOTICE: I have nothing against politics, I just feel queasy seing political discussions invading this page and, even more nauseating, getting mail from journalists, or, worse, political journalists. So PLEASE no discussions about the presidential or other campaigns here. Thanks.

via NOTICE: I have… | Facebook.

Friends, thanks (will use both barbell and bimodal). How about the nonbarbell class: Quasi-mercenary class, proto-prostitute class, protomercenary class. Is mercenary or prostitute a fitting designation?

x…x Class: An economic condition of making more than minimum wage and wishing for more wealth. Workers, monks, hippies, some artists, and English aristocrats escape it. The middle class tends to fall into it; so do Russian billionaires, lobbyists, most bankers, and bureaucrats. Members are bribable provided given an adequate narrative, mostly with use of casuistry.

via Friends, thanks… | Facebook.

Chapter 7 Recall from Chapter x that I believe that education is mostly what make individuals more polished dinner partners. The British government documents, as early as fifty years ago, present another aim for education than the one we have today: raising values, making good citizens, and “the intrinsic value of learning”, not economic growth. Likewise in ancient times, learning was for learning’s sake, to make someone a good person, worthy talking to; it was not for the vulgar aim to enhance the stock of gold in the city’s coffers. I will say it bluntly: entrepreneurs, particularly those in technical jobs are not necessarily the best people to have dinner with —the better at they are doing, the worst they tend to be with some exceptions, of course. I recall a heuristic I used in my previous profession when hiring people called in Fooled by Randomness “separate those who when they go to a museum look at the Cézanne on the wall from those who focus on the contents of the trash can”: the more interesting their conversation, the more cultured they were, the more we are trapped at thinking that they are effective at what they were doing something psychologists call the halo effect, the mistake in thinking that skills in, say, skiing translate into skills in managing a pottery workshop or a bank department. Clearly, it is unrigorous to judge the skills at doing from the skills at the talking the same conflation of event and exposure, or knowing with doing, or, more mathematically, mistaking the x for fx, good traders can be totally incomprehensible —they do not put much energy in turning their insights and internal coherence into elegant style. Entrepreneurs are selected to be just doers, not thinkers, and doers do, don’t talk, and it would be unfair, wrong, and downright insulting to measure them at the talk department. The same with artisans: the quality lies in their product, not their conversation —in fact they can easily have false beliefs that lead them to make better products, so what? But we should avoid the mental leap of going from the idea that making people interesting dinner partners to the notion that it creates economics growth, or that we should increase the stock of bureaucrats for that. Bureaucrats on the other hand, because of the lack of objective metric of success and absence of market forces, are selected on “hallo effects” of shallow looks and elegance —just say that a dinner with empty suits working for the World Bank would be more interesting than one with some of Fat Tony’s cousins.

via Chapter 7 Recall… | Facebook.