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Lindy, Globalism, Nikki Haley, Stiglitz, Pinker, Bitcoin, Futures, Daou, COVFEFE, Olives – Twitter

@Spfannenschmidt Nassim Taleb eyeing an IYI @nntaleb   Permalink 3:36 PM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Minority rule in action!   Permalink 3:27 PM – 15 Dec 2017

@oldlevantine Lebanese philology du jour: I want to suggest (based on folk etymology) that the Lebanese “tofshiita” (a bunch of malarkey) has its origins in the Aramaic ܦܫܝܛܬܐ/פשיטה for “simple,” whence the Peshitta 4 gospels come. Thoughts @nntaleb @turlevnon?? Permalink 3:20 PM – 15 Dec 2017

@financequant Globalism fosters points of centralized power which can (seemingly) “optimize” their outputs, creating conditions which work well when they work but which fail catastrophically when they don’t. Optimized systems, in a narrow sense, do not fail gracefully. 1/2   Permalink 9:45 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The 8 different meanings of BR in Aramaic, 2) (and more) Permalink 7:58 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The 8 different meanings of BR in Aramaic, 1) Permalink 7:57 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Never met a classicist who understands 1) Semitic philology 2) that times has an arrow that flows in one direction 3) that genetics like paternity tests >> oral history 4) that East-Med (Greek, Anatolian, Armenian & Canaanite) genetics are similar Permalink 7:00 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DUJOUR: Bar-ra in Leb (=outside) from B-ra (Aramaic) actually Akkadian. Barbar-Ru dog (outside wolf). Quest: any connection to βάρβαρος (i.e. outsider ) rather than onomatopeia for incomprehensible sounds? Hint: initially applied to Semitic-speaking Maltese.   Permalink 6:49 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Yes, expected. Permalink 6:02 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Lindy is closing.   Permalink 5:59 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Lindy is not “Lindy” (i.e., prone to the Lindy effect).   Permalink 5:58 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb People have the illusion that “globalism” is good for commerce. It is mainly good for commerce by large crony corporations, creating fragility & winner-take-all effects. Permalink 3:52 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb A “bubble” becomes a bubble when you run out nonbankrupt people calling it a bubble. Permalink 3:52 PM – 14 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Nikki Haley is a shameless, flagrant, uninformed, clueless, low-IQ BS vendor. We need her out of the UN. Saudi Barbaria has been killing THOUSANDS of Yemeni civilians. Yemen has killed NO Saudi Civilians.   Permalink 3:31 PM – 14 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The sad part is that it is true. As demonstrated, a “Nobel” in economics correlates with negative knowledge.   Permalink 3:06 PM – 14 Dec 2017

@JamesMarsh79 Robert Taft was firmly against @R_Thaler and #sunstein Permalink 11:18 AM – 14 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath To continue the odyssey #FigureThat #math #probability Permalink 10:23 AM – 14 Dec 2017

@nntaleb For 10 seconds, I was scared: I thought I wrote the article. That solution is sooooooooo simple. Permalink 7:36 AM – 14 Dec 2017

@nntaleb I have not seen anybody provide an argument for why Joseph Stiglitz is socially useful.   Permalink 2:28 AM – 14 Dec 2017

@AStratelates Reminder. Permalink 8:30 PM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Deriving the distribution of Bitcoin assuming Log Returns Student-T as specified by @financequant . (There is no PDF for corresponding Stable Dist. For Cauchy set alpha=1) Permalink 3:04 PM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb In other words, IYI Pinker @sapinker promotes an article by journo @mark_lynas making pro-GMO “scientific”, when there is NO SINGLE tail risk analysis for GMOs & no single study on consumers, & nothing that’s not Monsanto cooked.   Permalink 2:34 PM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Pinker is clueless about anything that has a 2nd order effect. In other words, about practically everything.   Permalink 9:37 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The right link   Permalink 9:21 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@phl43 The Financial Times (  ) just gave a lesson on how to write a headline that is both intentionally misleading and strictly speaking true. ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:58 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Comment “sent” la traduction? Permalink 6:29 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Probability of a big quotient #FigureThat #math #probability This is step one towards a harder problem Permalink 5:47 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb I am fighting for the rest of the world, particularly the US, to have the fractal, bottom-up properties & the governance of CHF.   Permalink 4:17 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Antifragility for CHF is because they used to benefit from turmoil elsewhere –and will hopefully do so in the future. My model country.   Permalink 3:43 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Bitcoin seems to fit a Stable Distr, cannot rule out Cauchy! (Collaboration w/ @financequant ) Note that this makes practically any price level possible: whether 100K or 100. Permalink 3:34 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb My Christmas Class party at NYU Tandon for my fat tails class. Permalink 4:35 PM – 12 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Chers amis, quelle est la traduction francaise la plus claire de “bullshit”? (c’est pour mon livre) Permalink 11:02 AM – 12 Dec 2017

@trueThorLund When @nntaleb writes abt taxi driver brother free to have own opinion, I imagine this…   Permalink 10:09 AM – 12 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Is that idiot is representative of a new generation of investors who don’t get that one can make claims about volatility & tails without committing to a direction?   Permalink 7:07 AM – 12 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Is it 1) stupid people become financial journalists or 2) financial journalism makes people stupid?   Permalink 8:13 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@nntaleb J2 Haplogroup, of course. Permalink 7:36 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Announcement by my Calabrez teachers: Antonio’s is open on Sunday Dec 24. Traduzione: Antonio’s abarberia aperto Domeni(c)ga diciembre 24. Permalink 6:35 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@Confusezeus The reaction to Trump’s declaration of #Jerusalem as a capital of Israel is more a reaction against #Trump himself than against the declaration. Here are three former presidents saying the same thing with no fuss to follow.   Permalink 5:57 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Dorin Marghidanu’s Permuted Inequality   #FigureThat #math #algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:05 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Shorting a future creates an unbounded liability: you are responsible for all your personal assets. Unlike futures, options have natural sellers: covered calls (hence spreadable into synthetic puts), & they should have been introduced AT THE SAME TIME as the future. Permalink 4:35 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@Yarimatahari @RBReich note @nntaleb call for decentralization as a tool against corporate lobbyists   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:29 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The fellow @harrynwilson is actually owning that their headline is a clickbait that doesn’t match the content –treated as fine print. In other words, what charlatans do.   Permalink 3:45 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@mikeandallie The most interesting piece of math I learned in 2017 was thanks to @octonion and @nntaleb -> the COVFEFE problem:   #math #mathchat Permalink 2:53 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@ido87 @nntaleb Had to smile when I saw this. Antifragility and the development of urban water infrastructure:   Permalink 1:36 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@John07331405 How India Economic Times reported this tweet:   Apparently you think it’s LIKELY bitcoin will hit $100k. Permalink 1:12 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@Cernovich Schiff was source of the fake CNN story and they have the guy on the very next day. Very Fake Jake!   Permalink 3:16 PM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Note that Bitcoin has a limited number of natural sellers. The entire concept is very concave supply (it costs more and more to extract). The number of producers shrinks with time. Permalink 3:03 PM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb As usual, fake news. “Properly” is key. Fools “can” short.   Permalink 2:36 PM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb This form of entrepreneurship [flipping companies] is the equivalent of bringing great looking and marketable children to this world with the sole aim to sell them at age 4. Permalink 12:52 PM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb A heuristic for happiness/contentment/good disposition: You are not upset to hear that someone you know has been owning bitcoin since 2011. Permalink 8:51 AM – 10 Dec 2017

@MaxAbrahms So, it turns out the pundits were wrong about Assad and the Islamic State as I’ve been saying forever.   Permalink 6:09 AM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Very big point. Futures that don’t have deliverables require a very, very deep market. Otherwise someone long the future can push prices higher at settlement time with impunity, by “locking” profits (never having to resell a deliverable).   Permalink 5:41 AM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Generalization of a problem by Maestro Alexander B @CutTheKnotMath (tex file   ) ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:49 AM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb We can ignore Daou (as he doesn’t have the basic reasoning abilities to know what a fallacy means); but here is a good puzzle: Daou a Lebanese word (meaning illumination), doesn’t exist in Syro-Aramaic. I cannot find an Ugaritic/Western Semitic root. Permalink 4:05 PM – 9 Dec 2017

@nntaleb A Kafkaesque World. With the inquisition spirit & the criminalization of politics, you will soon wake up every morning with the question: “Which rule I didn’t know existed did I violate yesterday?” Permalink 2:24 PM – 9 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Bitcoin: my answer to the repeated questions. No, there is NO way to properly short the bitcoin “bubble”. Any strategy that doesn’t entail options is nonergodic (subjected to blowup). Just as one couldn’t rule out 5K, then 10K, one can’t rule out 100K. Gabish? Permalink 8:05 AM – 9 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Mr Peter Daou, I exposed a major fallacy in your argument. You respond with two elementary fallacies. Will you respond next with four even more elementary fallacies? Permalink 6:34 AM – 9 Dec 2017

@jeorgen @nntaleb’s fundamental notion: We live in a non-linear world, or else it wouldn’t exist. Permalink 6:22 AM – 9 Dec 2017

@GuruAnaerobic Think of sugar/carbohydrate as a ‘pollutant’. Both Zero-carbers and High-carbers miss this, as well as the difference between acute and chronic.   Permalink 3:41 AM – 9 Dec 2017

@nntaleb For those who do NOT understand nonlinearity of dose-response with respect to pollutants: Permalink 3:11 AM – 9 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Here, in 2017, we have to watch legal scholar @AlanDersh explain to one (very) intellectually challenged @peterdaou that legal expertise doesn’t equate with supporting Hillary. This is not 2017 BC. This is 2017 AD.   Permalink 4:20 PM – 8 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Sorry, this is the one Permalink 3:24 PM – 8 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The COVFEFE solution with code. Permalink 3:07 PM – 8 Dec 2017

@oldlevantine The Aramaic lo ta`lan l-nesyuno (with the verb “alel” standing for “enter into” or “lead into”) means precisely “do not let us enter into” temptation: ולא תעלנא לנסיונא   Permalink 4:43 AM – 8 Dec 2017

@nntaleb More details about precaution w/respect to climate. Permalink 9:50 AM – 7 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The author of the manual, Bernard Gui, is the villain in the Name of the Rose. He has a lot to teach the repressive autocratic pseudo-left. Permalink 9:12 AM – 7 Dec 2017

@nntaleb My French publisher has a time-tested manual for those who want to engage in the modern pseudo-leftist inquisition. Permalink 8:26 AM – 7 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Tartare (Paris) “Jouer sa peau” is the new title. Permalink 4:47 AM – 7 Dec 2017

@GeertNoels We have only one planet. Even a risk with a very low probability becomes unacceptable when it affects all of us Ergo, we should build down CO2 emissions, even regardless of what climate-models tell us. – @nntaleb Permalink 11:23 PM – 6 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Lshaghlé lwa7idé lmfakkrin jéyé minl3arabé hiyye’l “al” (wl jam3 lmaksur). Tel3et Kin3aniyyé. Home run. Permalink 2:14 AM – 6 Dec 2017

@nntaleb “Jouer sa Peau” “Risquer sa Peau” Permalink 2:12 AM – 6 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Semitic Philology du jour: only supposedly “certain” import from Arabic “al” into Lebanese actually from later Canaanite: “hal”, a form still in use, or even “l”. So “l-bét/hal-bét” (the house) it is NOT “al-bayt” (Arabic) or “beyto/a”(Syriac/Aramaic), but EXACTLY Phoenician. Permalink 12:52 AM – 6 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Les épreuves de mon livre. Permalink 12:19 AM – 6 Dec 2017

@byzantinepower Exceptionally erudite article by @DrMichaelBonner on the hybridity of the Classics (inc a war-cry for Aramaic) & a settlement of scores re: @nntaleb & @wmarybeard. A brilliant way to kick off the morning…   Permalink 12:08 AM – 6 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Someone in the classics understood me in my bone with Mary Beard! And yes, Aramaic is the West.   via @academia Permalink 1:35 PM – 5 Dec 2017

@elalterego01 @nntaleb . Look what is happening to the people you have uncovered   Permalink 8:27 AM – 5 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Henry Corbin’s 4 volume treatise on Shiism. Permalink 2:55 AM – 5 Dec 2017

@nntaleb I am now in the Beirut Armenian. Permalink 11:26 AM – 4 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Comparing Beirut(Aleppo) Armenian to Moscow Armenian Permalink 11:21 AM – 4 Dec 2017

@nntaleb People get The Minority Rule.   Permalink 3:05 PM – 3 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Tripes Phoenician-style with a Georges Brassens lookalike remote cousin (whose name is also Georges). Permalink 12:05 PM – 3 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Orthodox priest in Amioun blessing a meal at a luncheon party. Permalink 3:18 AM – 3 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Respect.   Permalink 2:06 PM – 2 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Expected time to COVFEFE: part of the exam at the Indian Statistical Institute. cc:@CutTheKnotMath Permalink 11:09 AM – 2 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Between the Carybde of pseudo-empiricism and the Scylla of postmodernism.   Permalink 10:33 AM – 2 Dec 2017

@primalpoly Are you for or against the @nntaleb poll about whether you’re for or against Twitter polls? Permalink 5:20 PM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb We can see that somewhere between 1% and 65% of my Twitter followers don’t understand the Godel-Popper paradox, or meta-problem that is, that you can’t use electoral system to vote against democracy or that you can’t let Salafis vote in democratic societies. Permalink 5:09 PM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Thread opens a BS detection prog: take claim”Arabic/Islamic science INVENTED x”, debunk & show historian misappropriates stuff by Persians/Chaldeans/GrecoPhoenicians/Syriacs. I’ve discussed in ThBlackSwan the lack of evidential rigor among historians. (& note funding by KSA)   Permalink 3:16 PM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Four hours left to vote, particularly for those against twitter polls.   Permalink 11:49 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Probability with Factorials   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 11:13 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Mediterranean vodka. Permalink 9:33 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The reason crusaders used fat is because olive oil cultivation was not widespread and local to narrow Med strips. Northern Europeans were not representative of Western civilization. They still aren’t fully so. Permalink 7:09 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Mr Fafinski, it is simple. There were between 60-180 Arab tribes. Banu Ghassan was one of them. Can you generalize to Arabs? More significant, do you know how few the Ghassanids were then? I can’t make you rigorous, I can just prevent you from bullshitting on Twitter. Permalink 6:57 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@EatTheDormouse Prof. Mulder, crediting Arab/Islamic society with ancient Mediterranean or Persian practices is saying we owe the cultivation of maize to American settlers. Highly insulting and anachronistic Permalink 6:34 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The claim by Prof Mulder is even weirder that the word for “soap” in Classical Arabic صابون comes from the Greek σαπούνι (Latin sapo). Permalink 6:15 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The claim by Prof Mulder is even weirder that the word for “soap” in Classical Arabic صابون comes from the Greek σαπούνι (Latin sapo). Permalink 6:15 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Here is the distribution of olives. A Mediterranean thing. The Western cultivation came mostly later. Twitter is not a good place for confabulatory and anachronistic statements. Permalink 5:56 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb and Byzantines are now Islamic? Permalink 5:44 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb You made a false claim and are now justifying it with …colonialism? Your bogus definition of Islamic covers pre-Islamic cultures, including Jews. Permalink 5:41 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb We are discussing an INVENTION after the 7th Century, so please, please, no anachronism. You are a historian. Permalink 5:18 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb To call this an “invention” of the Islamic world one needs evidence it did not predate the Arab invasion of the Levant. Permalink 4:39 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb This comes is from a Levantine practice of annointing with oil (Messiach from “wipe”). And do not confuse “shemen” in Aramaic (oil) w/Samen (fat). cc:@stephenniem Permalink 4:38 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb This is likely to be wrong. Arabs had no olives. This may be a pre-Islamic Syriac tradition. The usual “appropriation” by Arabs of Persian, Chaldean and Levantine sciences.   Permalink 4:31 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 2nd version (first was 2015). Permalink 3:54 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The expected P-Value Hacking derivations. Fooled by Randomness. Permalink 3:53 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Philology du Jour: Historically Lebanon refers to the White Mountain, not the coastal cities, collectively called Phoenicia up to Byzantine times. Permalink 2:17 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Snow slowly covering The White Mountain above Northern Phoenicia. Permalink 2:13 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Are you for or against Twitter polls? Permalink 4:18 PM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The median academic paper is read by ~ 2 pple. Some economists like Stiglitz have 10^5 citations with negative contribution to society (advice on FNMA/Venzuela is worse than silence). Same with econometrics. Do the math. Permalink 12:24 PM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Not quite the same origins. Levantine is inherited from much older languages than Arabic. I did a statistical analysis of words.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:17 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 3) For instance one may invoke justice and equality to completely open borders between Eu & Africa (or US & Mexico) & call anyone who disagree “racist”. The definition of freedom is more robust. Permalink 6:05 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 2) freedom of speech is a robust definition, scale invariant, and rigid across time and situations. Justice and other concepts are relative and vary with time, place, and scale. Permalink 5:53 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb As much as I fight Shermer’s bad empiricism & pseudo-rationalism, I support him in his endeavor to promote freedom of expression as the pivotal element of intellectual life.   Permalink 5:35 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb It all starts with writing in the vernacular. And the understanding that the “Arabs” in Algeria are predominantly of Beber origin. Permalink 4:23 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Algeria will probably be the first Arab League “Member” to de-Arabize, renew with its West-Med historical roots.   via @Algérie Part Permalink 1:08 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@_skininthegame Met Nassim “No-BS” Taleb at Kusturica concert in Moscow. Partying with the Russians. Thanks for everything @nntaleb Permalink 7:37 PM – 29 Nov 2017

Russians, Old Arbat, Academics, Twitter, Sunstein, Friedman, The “LEFT”, Taxes, “irrationality”, Intolerance – Twitter

@nntaleb It is very dangerous for intelligent people to be paranoid. In The Black Swan, 11 years ago Permalink 5:48 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The Russian pathological fixation is such that in the mind of those afflicted EVERYTHING has to have some Russian angle.   Permalink 5:39 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Now when it comes to history, this is the real ting.   Permalink 4:40 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb As proof that the Arabic alphabet not adapted to Lebanese, in Garshuni ܐܶ vs in Arabic ايه which is NEVER the correct sound. The Latin Alphabet remains close to the Phoenician alphabet & much more adapted to our sounds. Permalink 4:24 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@jackrim1 Possibly one of the best book cover quotes ever @nntaleb Permalink 3:41 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb GQ is the philosopher John Gray. Permalink 3:20 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Thanks friends, instead of having endorsements from hotshots we opted for “Joe from Chicago” style blurbs –real not fake readers. Permalink 3:17 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The code. Argument that 13 has highest probability to follow. Permalink 12:03 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The water in Moscow makes you more formal with probability. Solving a @CutTheKnotMath problem   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:00 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@Learn_lebanese The Lebanese É does not exist in Arabic. šÉyef fÉyet LebnÉn #LebaneseVsArabic Permalink 6:19 AM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Lesson #2: if you are tipsy, there is some elegance you need to maintain. Permalink 1:48 PM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Lesson #1: to get drunk with Russians, train to the following: no shame in being tipsy. It takes some training. Permalink 1:42 PM – 28 Nov 2017

@mdpopescu This. It drives me nuts (one might say it triggers me ) to see scientists take credit for engineers’ work. Scientists tell you that lasers cannot possibly work. Engineers make them work anyway. Scientists come back and claim another victory for science.   Permalink 10:10 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb This is the discussion in Antifragile about “academic” discoveries that were in fact made by practitioners. Permalink 7:45 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Errata: Meant 1 in 100,000. Also note that the net contribution of economics/finance is negative. Permalink 7:35 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb I need some help. I am in Old Arbat trying to buy trinkets and need a more reliable souvenir shop. Permalink 5:37 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Which explains why, in Georgian restaurants in Moscow, I am greeted like a local cousin until I open my mouth. Permalink 5:31 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The odds of an academic “researcher” producing anything eventually used by society is of the order of .00001%. That includes scientists. The odds for a baker: 100% Permalink 5:08 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb People collectively chosen for their misunderstanding of tail risk, both before and after the crisis.   Permalink 2:57 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb We face 3 predators: The State, Near-State Institutions (e.g. academia, media) & Large Corporations. Large corps end up destroying themselves (life expec. <10 y in SP500). Others stick and grow.   Permalink 2:17 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The problem with Lebanon is rent-seeking (and the inequality coming from it), not inequality per se. Permalink 2:04 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb In other words Krugman falls for the mistake: “For academics there is no difference between academia and the real world. In the real world there is”. Permalink 12:48 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Inded ideas don’t have skin in the game if the people holding them don’t.   Permalink 12:17 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@maciejolpinski why a 17 year old altcoin trader might be more ‘rational’ than any Twitter crypto-theorist (including myself), opinion without option < option without opinion Permalink 11:16 PM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Sloppiness alert: rising “life expectancy” has no effect on social security. It is driven by childhood mortality. You care about conditional life expectancy >65 (or 68). This is very common mistake.   Permalink 2:24 PM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Note that neither medicine nor engineering are academia-driven pursuits, rather practice and apprenticeship-based. Permalink 2:14 PM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Erratum 2 Antikhrupkost Permalink 1:03 PM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Footnote: Lektchuring Birds How to Fly in Antifragile discusses the myth that science -> technology, rather than reverse. Permalink 12:48 PM – 27 Nov 2017

@The_Cyrenian But by all means, send hundreds of millions more to terrorists to keep killing Syrian Christians like me and burning our churches to the ground… Permalink 11:32 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Academics, when they leave academia become at best back-office support staff, not decision-makers. Not like the grocery store owner who owns his own risk. Permalink 10:23 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Erratum: Москва Permalink 9:59 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb If majority of academics vote Democrat, it is not random: they 1) don’t have skin in the game, (others take risks for them) 2) are not productive members of society but want to lecture others on what to do 3) have steady income etc.   Permalink 9:52 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Mockba Many many Russians interested in Antikhtupkim and disorder… Was told there is no Russian recipe for squid ink. Permalink 9:43 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The NYT generalizing: because its friends have problems, ALL men are a problem. Shoddy. Same defensive generalization when I accuse someone w/o skin in the game of being a BS vendor/pseudoexpert: Taleb calls “everybody” a BS vendor/pseudoexpert. Permalink 1:02 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb In other words, such a reasoning would lead to preemptively arrest all vegetarians w/mustache. Permalink 12:19 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The logical fallacy of affirming the consequent. If ALL wars are preceded by tensions, NOT ALL tensions lead to war (empirically, most tensions lead to agreements/parties). If ALL members of the Smith family all tall, NOT ALL tall pple from Smith family.   Permalink 12:08 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@TMFStoffel When I read things like this — supporting @nntaleb’s theory of the body’s antifragility and the eventual harm of interventionism — it makes me wonder about ever icing a pulled muscle, taking ibuprofen, etc again   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:55 PM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb A speculation in Antifragile.   Permalink 10:00 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@romepix A moment in #Naples #Italy Permalink 5:40 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Finally getting rid of IYIs and Empty Suits.   Permalink 4:21 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Twitter getting a taste of its medicine.   Permalink 12:38 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Ergodic measures of inequality give a v. different story. Cc: @ole_b_peters Permalink 12:34 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb This is class-envy driven BS both statistically & philosophically. Unfortunately it is infecting Lebanon.   Permalink 12:32 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Presence in South England: You can see how an Anatolian/Syrian gene went NorthWest with Roman soldiers (the “diversity” of that ignorant Mary Beard). Permalink 2:12 PM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 20 years ago…   Permalink 1:05 PM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Attention conspiracists: I am on my way to Moscow. Just letting you know, speculate & theorize. (Last trip was cut short for personal reasons.) Permalink 10:43 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Fellow is a NYT columnist. Now if you don’t classify this fellow as repressive, authoritarian, insultingly illiberal “liberal”, you have a problem reasoning.   Permalink 8:57 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Fellow is a NYT columnist. Now if you don’t classify this fellow as repressive, authoritarian, insultingly illiberal “liberal”, you have a problem reasoning.   Permalink 8:57 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The point is not so much plagiarism as the fact that readers get offended seeing ethical breaches. Permalink 6:56 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Plagiarism alert: by one Luca de Sandro in @StartingFinance. Luckily, readers shout fraud when they see fraud. Permalink 6:40 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Statists who want to impose topdown solutions on pple agst their will have the NERVE to talk abt “authoritarianism”. “Nudger” @CassSunstein, clueless abt risk/probability, tried to manipulate citizens under Obama, (s.a. prevent them from knowing they were consuming GMOs). Permalink 5:10 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The bankruptcy of the NYT? of Monsanto? The collapse of Saudi Barbaria? Permalink 5:01 PM – 24 Nov 2017

@GabrielSaidR I agree but religion did matter here – it was a Sufi mosque.   Permalink 11:50 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@anhistorian In honor of Thomas Friedman’s latest love letter to Saudi here is 70 years of the NY Times describing #Saudi royals in the language of #reform. Permalink 7:26 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Arabic root same as other Semitic ones. Permalink 7:20 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb This is the reasoning defect by which Arabist idiots and Western IYIs deem that if word in Levantine has similar Arabic root, it comes FROM Arabic. On Wikipedia Levantine is called “Levantine Arabic” when Arabic came LATER. Permalink 7:14 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Erratum: I meant גבר in Heb not גָדוֹל. GVR root. Permalink 7:00 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Algebra is NOT necessarily from Arabic. That’s the problem w/ignorant historians of science. 2 roots: AKKADIAN (Babylon): gabaru =>compute(equivalence betw. solar & lunar._ CANNANITE & ARAMAIC: GBR is to “make bigger” (גָדוֹל in Heb = powerful), gabra= man/strong in Aram.   Permalink 6:41 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The J2b1 concentration, while hard to reverse-engineer w/the (elementary) probability used by geneticists, is relatively easy to do via Brownian Bridge. Permalink 5:44 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb New book uses Thomas Friedman @tomfriedman as representative of the criminally stupid no-skin in the game BS vendor/pearshape warmonger who destroys societies. Permalink 5:08 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Final, with thanks. Permalink 3:47 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb My attempt at solution. Permalink 2:37 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Dear @ehsani22, relax, NYT’s @tomfriedman is the perfect negative indicator; NEVER been right on anything: Iraq, Lybia, Syria, Leb, Trump, globalization, complexity. Means MBS and Saudi Barbaria are doomed.   Permalink 6:05 PM – 23 Nov 2017

@mns Crucial point. Overuse of words we have to describe atrocities not only diminishes victims of those past atrocities, but it blunts the main weapon (language) we have to prevent future atrocities   Permalink 3:36 PM – 23 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 3) Monoculturist. Permalink 9:58 AM – 23 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Note that I put “LEFT” in quotes. A lot of people on the left w/discernment abilities or civil libertarians, pacifists, nonstatists, localists, communitarians, etc. do not identify w/such a category. Permalink 8:53 AM – 23 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Thanksgiving Quiz, continuation of @CutTheKnotMath’s random interval problem.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:42 AM – 23 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The “LEFT”: Repressive. Anti-localist, anti-decentralization. Anti freedom of speech. Warmongering, militarist. Interventionist. Manipulation of pple w/nudges. Elitist/IYI. Anti self-determination of minorities worldwide. Race obsessed. Pro-Salafascists. Anti #SkinintheGame Permalink 6:08 AM – 23 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Decisions are not about epistemic beliefs, but operational ones. Religion is often very rational…   Permalink 12:16 PM – 22 Nov 2017

@AStratelates Nope. As @nntaleb points out, EVEN IF THE SUPERNATURAL DOESN’T EXIST and prayer doesn’t work, it fulfills our intervention tendency without harm. You’re just a bigoted asshole if you’re denigrating people praying.   Permalink 9:58 AM – 22 Nov 2017

@DonTravlos As the son of one of the victims of hitler glad someone with the authority of a Taleb finally said it Permalink 9:47 AM – 22 Nov 2017

@garyruskin “The best virtue requires courage,” writes @nntaleb   “If I were to describe the perfect virtuous acts, it would be to take currently frowned upon positions, those penalized by the common discourse (particularly when funded by lobbyists).” ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:42 AM – 22 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Blabbering Pseudolib Idiots Took Over Academia: The idea of comparing someone to Hitler: 1) who doesn’t actively conduct genocide, 2) invade neighbors, 3) muzzles speech , 4) etc. is an insult to the true victims of Hitler.   Permalink 4:05 AM – 22 Nov 2017

@CaesarIpse An inmersive week in philosophy, finance, markets and risk taking from bright practitioners who know their “ting” and awesome peers!   Permalink 12:20 PM – 21 Nov 2017

@CutTheKnotMath A problem of random intervals   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:29 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 12) The Scandinavians (and the Swiss) get it that taxation requires a level of TRUST found in municipalities, possibly regions, never large anonymous states. (Scalability & Skin in the Game)   Permalink 8:57 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb We managed with RWRI a technical education that has no BS no pol correctness &no admin fat.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:52 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 11) As tribes grow, I can understand paying protection money to warriors: Pax Romana/Ottomana/Habsburgianana even Americana to preserve PROPERTY RIGHTS. Historical rate ~2-10%. It is much harder to understand coercive redistribution & subsidies to rent seeking bureaucrats. Permalink 6:28 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 10) SCALING. A- Imagine you’re a hunter. You give a share (say ⅓) to a pool for invalid members of tribe; for social norms & #SITG symmetry. B- Community grows, someone FORCES you to give ⅓ to an administration managed far away, some of it pays salary of P. Krugman. Permalink 5:45 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb You mean this Falkenstein?   Permalink 4:41 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Mr @_tomazy 1) #Jews went down in Bagdad & Cairo by 100% and 99.99% (not an approximation). If that’s not evidence, I don’t what is. 2) The explicit mission by Qatar/KSA is a Sunni replacement to Alawis. Thank you. Permalink 1:13 PM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 9) CLASS ENVY isn’t from truck driver in South Texas, but from a NY/DC Ivy League educated IYI (Krugman, Stiglitz) w/sense of entitlement upset some “less smart” pple are much richer.   Permalink 11:49 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb That’s the problem with Big Government, not one with taxation. Gabish? Permalink 9:34 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 8) When you disguize CLASS ENVY as an intellectual argument (as Piketty, Krugman, IYIs), it always, always shows. Permalink 7:58 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 7) So we accept tht taxes are collective coersion; we can make it rational by allowing groups to form their own communities w/their own collective rules, as in CHF. This is why the ONLY political orientation I have is LOCALISM. Permalink 7:40 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 6) I only reply to comments that are wrong, not those that are sufficiently stupid to be “not even wrong”. Permalink 7:34 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 5) In that sense taxation can be seen as a Punishment ( جزية) on the wealthy for them to be allowed to stay wealthy. Which is OK, but don’t be fooled. Permalink 6:36 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 4) Islamic law gives insights: taxes are separated as 1) Charity ( زكاة, alms) vs. 2) Punishment ( جزية) (on Dhimmis (like me) to be allowed to stay Christian+ خراج). Charity (~2-3%) goes to the poor, Punishment to state coffers/military. Charity implies *thanking* benefactor. Permalink 6:32 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Accept disproportionate taxation, but be no fool: it is the coercive result of 1man-1vote just as in past it was military force. in LCD, it is patronage. In past, taxation was disguized as “Protection” & small, w/~5-15%. Then became “services”. Now “fairness”. Permalink 6:09 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The reason we have “progressive” taxation is the 1 person-1 vote, with the spin that zero-sum, which applies only to IYI jobs.   Permalink 5:24 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Fake narrative to justify expropriation: 1% of taxpayers pay ~ half of taxes for SAME services. You want them to pay 110%? 200%?   Permalink 4:57 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@bthies_watashi Legibility, explained.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:23 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Arab League = Sunni League. States that will be outside of it will prosper. Like Malta. Permalink 3:28 PM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 1st step, Arab states delegitimized their Jews (1940s) 2nd, they deligitimized Copts (1950s) 3rd, they deligitimized Maronites (1970s) 4th, they deligitimized Alawis (2011) Final step, they deligitimized Shiites (2017) Which means good luck to the Sunni League. .   Permalink 3:19 PM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Exactly my argument “surgeons should not look like surgeons”!!!   Permalink 1:12 PM – 19 Nov 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Problem 4186 from the Crux Mathematicorum Mathematicorum   #FigureThat #math #calculus #inequality ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:15 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Another chapter shows that individual “irrationality” is necessary for collective behavior. Also almost all of Thaler’s work misuses probability distributions.   Permalink 8:48 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Nudging is a mechanism that lead you to act according to Thaler and Sunstein both very ignorant of probability, & increases risk in society.   Permalink 8:39 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Added this to the final draft: the problem with universalists. Permalink 7:03 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Many pseudolibs & other idiots who replied to the Persian Muslim wife point don’t get it that the ONLY evidence of nonracism is one’s private life.   Permalink 6:48 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@BadgerPundit For 99% of us, better to block, not mute. Here’s the classic argument for that:  . But Taleb’s in a different situation, as many read his thread, and he needs to block people who ruin them for everyone. A tragedy-of-the-commons problem. Permalink 6:27 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb NITPICKING: Commenting/debating a point of no relevance to the substance of the argument; whether right or wrong, no effect, while distracting pple. Gabish? Permalink 5:47 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb This is a prime example of nitpicking coupled with distortion of my initial statement.   Permalink 5:42 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Should I block this responder?   Permalink 5:33 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Sunday Heuristic: Block nitpickers before trolls as they damage the discourse much more effectively by diverting it (pple engage nitpickers more than trolls). Permalink 4:53 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb They don’t mention that Wahabis in Saudi Barbaria currently ban dogs as impure animals.   Permalink 4:28 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Why is it that pple, in 2017, still don’t get the properties of Fat Tails? Is it a reasoning defect or because it is so hard? @DrCirillo   Permalink 5:42 PM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 3) And ha! Zaraqu means both BLUE and GREEN! Permalink 4:44 PM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 2) In Aramaic, both Green and Yellow <= ירוק Permalink 4:34 PM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Tarjamt Taḱt Prokrustes xal kinxané-jdid (Modern Canaanite). Permalink 12:37 PM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Tit for tat game theoretic Popper’s Paradox: the minute you cease to tolerate, I become intolerant.   Permalink 8:37 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Semitic Philology Saturday. Recall frm Antifragile that Greeks (and Heb) had no word for color blue. Closest old semitic word for Green is…Erz (->Cedar) or 7ashab (->wood) or ירוק ورق ->paper Permalink 7:31 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@shrykescythe Mike was never even the biggest voice or totally convinced on Pizzagate, yet media decided to do everything to stick the label on him. Brainwashed sheep just parrot “Pizzagate guy” without ever studying the facts. Permalink 6:57 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb When I have drinks w/someone on the left (I do weekly), nobody on the right bothers me. When I have drinks w/someone on the right, the “left” goes wild. (f*** them). #PopperParadox: never, never tolerate intolerance. Permalink 5:45 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb In Brazil, I thought kidnappers settled for 10-20% of the NW of the victim. Saudi Arabia: 70%. Corruption Schmoruption: none shd ever invest in Aramco, stock in a country that expropriates to balance budget. #ضد_آل_سعود Permalink 5:41 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@mikeandallie Finding e by throwing darts:   #math #mathchat inspired by @nntaleb @CutTheKnotMath @giohio and @JohnAllenPaulos Permalink 5:17 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@GreenRupertRead Green Brexit push set to continue despite amendments defeat > Yes: we fight on to save the @PrecPrinciple! [Pse RT!]   Permalink 4:42 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb How do I know that @Cernovich is not racist? #SkinintheGame: He has a Persian Muslim wife (& a half Persian daughter). Ignore talk (by pple & abt pple), observe what people do. Permalink 3:40 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@hichambh Looks like chef Sébastien Bras has read the work of @nntaleb Acclaimed French chef asks to be stripped of three Michelin stars   Permalink 3:26 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Lecture on Cybercrime at RWRI 6: Our policy now is to hire instructors from 1) past attendees 2) people who practice exactly what they talk about. No academic should teach anything nonacademic. Permalink 6:40 PM – 17 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Happy Birthday Mike C @Cernovich Permalink 5:49 PM – 17 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Voila   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:16 PM – 17 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Just a reminder that, as a philosopher @mpigliucci has a problem with Truth.   Permalink 4:19 PM – 17 Nov 2017

@mackthefresh Last day of Real World Risk with @nntaleb. It’s been great! Still waiting for the deadlift demonstration though. Permalink 8:23 AM – 17 Nov 2017

@CutTheKnotMath An inequality in 2+2 variables from SSMA magazine   #FigureThat #math#algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:03 AM – 17 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Thought of the day: never trust the thought & science of anyone who is not free. Being free means no honors, no position, nothing other than one’s own thought. Permalink 5:30 AM – 17 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Some people get that universalism & globalism lead to monoculture.   Permalink 11:24 AM – 16 Nov 2017

@nntaleb My answer is here: SITG vs CONFLICT OF INTEREST Permalink 7:46 AM – 16 Nov 2017

@ProbFact Chaos and the beta distribution   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:12 AM – 16 Nov 2017

@MaxAbrahms Since the start of the Cold War the strategy of U.S. Mideast proxies has been to sell themselves as strategic assets by constantly adjusting their professed utility depending on the latest geopolitical threat.   Permalink 6:22 AM – 16 Nov 2017

@GreenRupertRead The House of Commons has just voted against retaining the @PrecPrinciple into UK law. Good bye protection; hello recklessness and potential devastation of our posterity. A shameful failure of leadership. [Please RT.]   Permalink 11:57 PM – 15 Nov 2017

Ottomans, GMOs, Saudi Barbaria, Macron, Brazil | Twitter

@nntaleb RWRI 7 now open: Feb 5-9 2018   Listening to Robert Fry @financequant lecturing on chaotic systems. Permalink 8:52 AM – 15 Nov 2017

@dhavalpanchal Enterpreunership : Leprechaun’s – playful mischief over purpose. Don’t get imprisioned by ur biz plan. Inspired from #rwri session by @nntaleb. Errors & jumps to conclusions all mine. Permalink 7:06 AM – 15 Nov 2017

@silver_plasmon1 I read Antifragile by Taleb (@nntaleb) 4 times until now. First time I read as a text book to get wisdom to survive. Second time as a memorial statement for Fat Tony. Third time as Das Kapital of Marx with correct mathematics. Fourth time as ethics to know good way to die. Permalink 5:19 AM – 15 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Semitic Philology Du Jour: “I will return in a couple of days” in Lebanese means “I don’t think I can come back any time soon”. Bhal Yawmeyn != in 2 days.   Permalink 10:26 AM – 14 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Ok I need to mend with my Iberic friends: NOTHING is close to the Serrano, etc. Thanks Cesar at the RWRI seminar for the gift Permalink 5:11 AM – 14 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Which explains why in Levantine left is Shmel from Phoenician/Aramaic not Yassar. Permalink 4:18 AM – 13 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Semitic Philology Du Jour: Yamina (right) in Heb/Aram same root as “Yemen” = South; Smola/Shmola(left) same as “Bledel Shem”= North; “Shami“ =Northerner Permalink 4:11 AM – 13 Nov 2017

@nntaleb PATERNITY TEST: These Leb Arabists fed on fabricated theories of migrations from Arabia are in shock, like someone who went through paternity test & realizes his father isn’t his father. Permalink 3:08 AM – 13 Nov 2017

@GreenRupertRead Why are NGOs sceptical of genome editing?   > Useful information… Do share! @nntaleb Permalink 2:03 AM – 13 Nov 2017

@MaxBlumenthal No, you effectively called for the network to be destroyed, then demanded the cast of @RedactedTonight quit and take up work for Teen Vogue, which is guest edited this month by Hillary Clinton. What a joke.   Permalink 7:59 PM – 12 Nov 2017

@nntaleb In fact people like me (Rum millet for Greek Orthodox) were saved by the Ottomans who unlike Arabs allowed Christians a Byzantine or other identity.   Permalink 4:02 PM – 12 Nov 2017

@nntaleb “Geographically, it’s part of the region”: Why do all Arab nationalists bullshit? Athens is MUCH closer than Riyadh. And there is a desert+mountain separating. Permalink 2:55 PM – 12 Nov 2017

@nntaleb People you block feel compelled to read what you post. Permalink 9:52 AM – 12 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Some hope: Collapse of Saudi Barbaria, the most fragile place on the planet. With some compliments about yours truly.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:41 AM – 12 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Solution   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:37 AM – 12 Nov 2017

@spartanwarriors Objects of precision and aesthetic appeal….a close-up of the Corinthian columns of the Temple of Bacchus, ca. 150 AD in the #Roman Heliopolis (Baalbek, Lebanon) – Photograph: Philip Maaskant Permalink 3:37 AM – 12 Nov 2017

@AlbertoAtreides What are the main applications of @nntaleb’s ideas to Law and Legal Theory in general? Note that he has explicitly shown us that he’s had influence from Contract Theory Scholastics like Olivi. Curious. It’s something to think upon. Permalink 2:29 AM – 12 Nov 2017

@GreenRupertRead Brits! Please act on this: Crucial moment here for defending the @PrecPrinciple and stopping GMOs:   Permalink 2:37 PM – 11 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Gigantic Squid Ink plate. Permalink 11:35 AM – 11 Nov 2017

@SamiBarakat1916 Kamal salibi is full of shit and is a pan Arabist funded idiot. Science proves all those shit Arabist theories are wrong Permalink 9:42 AM – 11 Nov 2017

@nntaleb And gene flow from the Arabian Peninsula is small.   Permalink 3:58 AM – 11 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Being part of the Ottoman Empire (500 y) was being part of East Med (“Near East”) on top of 3000 y of Greco-Phoenician-Byzantine. Leb airline was “Trans Mediterranean Airlines”, successor “Middle East Airlines” when Arabs started having $$. Arabization is recent. Permalink 3:57 AM – 11 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Good News: The resentment of Saudi Barbaria in Lebanon, across all communities, is helping the country come back to the Eastern Mediterranean & its Phoenician/Greco-Roman heritage, away from the Middle East. Permalink 3:23 PM – 10 Nov 2017

@beachvetlbc How about freeing this study from a $42 paywall, #Monsanto, so we can share all the information& limitations u don’t want people to read ? Permalink 10:34 AM – 10 Nov 2017

@Learn_lebanese Matal tene чan l’farq bēỹn l’leğa l’lebnēniyé wel leğa l’чarabiyé. #lebaneseVsArabic Permalink 9:11 AM – 10 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 3) For those who don’t get it “good neighbor” here doesn’t refer to exchange of holiday gifts, only absence of “tit for tat” & tacit understanding of dynamics. Permalink 8:26 AM – 10 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 2) these game theoretic situations of coordination w/speaking (Axelrod) are common in the animal kingdom. Permalink 8:16 AM – 10 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Leb Shiites & Israel seem to have unspoken non-agression “good-neighbor” pact unblemished for >11 y. No real territorial claims/sources of dispute. Don’t expect the Israelis to go to war for low-IQ-yet-Napoleonic Saudi w/no skin in the game. Gabish? Permalink 8:04 AM – 10 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The problem with such systems is that the longer you wait to fix it, the worse the collapse. Permalink 7:14 AM – 10 Nov 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Problem 4117 from Crux Mathematicorum #FigureThat #math #algebra Permalink 7:12 AM – 10 Nov 2017

@CutTheKnotMath A Followup on Lewis Carroll’s Pillow Problem #FigureThat #math #probability Permalink 5:40 AM – 10 Nov 2017

@normonics Insulting anyone anonymously will surely only deepen your personal problems   Permalink 5:34 AM – 10 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The minority rule caused @GadSaad’s article on the minority rule to be hidden from sight.   Permalink 4:46 AM – 10 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Added entries to the glossary Permalink 4:19 AM – 10 Nov 2017

@nntaleb And remember to NEVER humiliate a bedouin in public. Permalink 3:31 AM – 10 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Saudi Arabia: with so much accumulated fragility, any reform, no matter if positive or negative, will accelerate collapse. Change is v. bad.   Permalink 3:13 AM – 10 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Will Macron be hikacked and forced to resign? Unless he builds Wahabi centers, of course.   Permalink 2:49 PM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Adding: monoculture (intellektshual) ( at the gym have nothing other than twitter to remember) Permalink 2:35 PM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Adding: scalability Permalink 2:33 PM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Adding: merchandizing of virtue. Permalink 2:27 PM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Last minute addition: The Glossary. Any comments? Permalink 1:49 PM – 9 Nov 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Practical Inevitability of Empty Spaces: a collection of tweets in a continued discussion on dart throwing   Permalink 12:58 PM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Looking for first name and city of residence of TakingHayekSeriously @FriedrichHayek Permalink 11:26 AM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Publishers put quotes by hotshots on back of books. I hate it. Told them I would get GENUINE quotes from REAL users e.g. “Joe from Denver”. Collecting quotes from readers (and re-readers) of Incerto & drafts of SITG. Please add to this thread. Permalink 11:15 AM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Nor for us Meds: Bread, olive oil, tapenade/hummus, garlic/herbs, and wine.   Permalink 10:57 AM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Robert Fisk: Hariri was hijacked by Saudi Arabia. #ClownPrinceofSaudiBarbaria   Permalink 9:46 AM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb #ClownPrinceofSaudiBarbaria Permalink 7:30 AM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb My characterization of the Clown Prince of Saudi Barbaria: a low-IQ brat. You can’t be both. Permalink 7:00 AM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Real mathematics is NOT about solving particular probability riddles. It is about the MOST general solution to a given problem.   Permalink 6:35 AM – 9 Nov 2017

@abdota “Peace: Neither Ink nor Blood” — @nntaleb—405-628   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:42 AM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb (revision) I wrote the 2 editions of Bed of Procrustes (Incerto, Vol. 3, a book of aphorisms) as tweets under the PROCRUSTEAN BED of 140 ch. limit. No aphorism should exceed ~140 ch. Permalink 2:41 AM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb I wrote the 2 editions of Bed of Procrustes (Incerto, Vol. 3, a book of aphorisms) as tweets under the 140 character limit. No aphorism should exceed ~140 ch.   Permalink 2:28 AM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Q: What are you trying to do with Skin in the Game (& the Incerto)? A: Separating the fake from the true in anything: business, scholarship, academia, history, weightlifting, speeches, literature, war, mathematics of probability, politics, food… Permalink 1:50 PM – 8 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Resolved. Thanks all! Permalink 1:34 PM – 8 Nov 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Practical Inevitability of Clustering. A collection of excerpts from a discussion that followed @nntaleb’s tweet   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:55 AM – 8 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Correction. The “anti-corruption” crown prince RECENTLY bought a $500 million yacht. My problem isn’t so much the use of corruption to grab power. It’s the war mongering. The fellow is destroying Yemen. Permalink 10:33 AM – 8 Nov 2017

@Nigel_Farage #NeverForget Permalink 9:31 AM – 8 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Technical friends: Which browser should I use for that? Thanks   Permalink 5:43 AM – 8 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The “anti-corruption” crown prince owns a $500 million yacht. Did he buy it with his government salary? Who is being fooled? Who?   Permalink 4:45 AM – 8 Nov 2017

@CutTheKnotMath You throw 16 darts uniformly randomly on 2D map with 16 squares. What is the probability of getting at least half the squares empty? Permalink 4:25 PM – 7 Nov 2017

@nntaleb OK, OK, not as good. But OK. Permalink 1:50 PM – 7 Nov 2017

@nntaleb T Shirt I got in Brazil x nao e f(x) ( x is not f(x) ) Permalink 1:49 PM – 7 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Ok Ok almost as good. Permalink 7:25 AM – 7 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The Brazilian version of Jamon Iberico tastes even better. Permalink 6:58 AM – 7 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Antifragile in Brazil! Permalink 4:50 AM – 7 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Is (war obsessed) Saudi Arabia socially, culturally, and intellectually one of the most BACKWARD nations on Planet Earth? Permalink 1:32 AM – 7 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Note that Monte Carlo methods for the problem converge very slowly. Combinatorial issues. Permalink 12:58 AM – 7 Nov 2017

@nntaleb A country that “confiscates”… Not very comforting investors in an IPO. Anyone thinking of “investing” in Saudi Barbaria is an imbecile.   Permalink 12:38 AM – 7 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Can someone explain why S. Barbaria w/GDP= 20K p capita (only oil), Yuge Youth unemployment, unskilled, Yuge deficit, is involved in wars? Permalink 3:38 PM – 6 Nov 2017

@nntaleb No! No!   Permalink 3:31 PM – 6 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Either media is stupid, or Saudi rulers are stupid, or both Lebanon did not formally declare war &no common border   Permalink 1:10 PM – 6 Nov 2017

@snarwani Where is Saad Hariri, and why did his “resignation” as #Lebanon’s PM take even his own party by surprise? Some background: Permalink 11:32 AM – 6 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The square differences. Nonlinearity: it flattens at 405.   Permalink 10:03 AM – 6 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Brazil Permalink 7:40 AM – 6 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Nudging fails in the only place where I thought it could work: medication routines.   Permalink 7:20 AM – 6 Nov 2017

@ggreenwald So much of the vicious, false, coordinated Dem/media attack on Donna Brazile was amazing, illuminating & horrifying. But this took the prize   Permalink 3:44 AM – 6 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Errata: “with d independent trials” @erugli @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 2:41 AM – 6 Nov 2017

@nntaleb FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS; final solution to the problem   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 2:35 AM – 6 Nov 2017

@mjd1735 Mohammed bin Salman fired him. So much for “sovereignty”.   Permalink 5:05 PM – 5 Nov 2017

S. Arabia, Hariri, SSRN, Copyeditors, Catalans, Monsanto | Twitter

@nntaleb Hariri’s resignation: idiots in Saudi Arabia and the U.S. admin are geopolitizing the Lebanese conflict.   Permalink 3:19 PM – 5 Nov 2017

@nntaleb No difference of opinion shd EVER allow spreading fake memes. But no difference of opinion shd EVER lead to call for censorship. Permalink 1:10 PM – 5 Nov 2017

@nntaleb There is something nonrandom about seemingly unconnected events in the past 36 hours in Saudi Arabia.   Permalink 1:01 PM – 5 Nov 2017

@u_vakalate @nntaleb #Lindy   Permalink 12:50 PM – 5 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Being nice in a non-BS way. Permalink 5:13 AM – 5 Nov 2017

@nntaleb When one suddenly realizes the pun is in … Persian.   Permalink 3:49 AM – 5 Nov 2017

@nntaleb S. Arabia: Could be pre-emptive purge. Could be abortive putsch. Could be just acceleration of reform. Still early for pronouncements.   Permalink 3:09 PM – 4 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 2) For the Holy Roman Empire was never Roman: Byzantium was. Nor was it ever Holy. Nor was it an Empire. Permalink 1:34 PM – 4 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 1) N. Europe’s usurpation of Ancient Western Civilization (Med) was started w/the Holy Roman Empire usurpation of the Roman Empire. Permalink 1:33 PM – 4 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Squid ink with @MichaelSagnerMD Permalink 11:11 AM – 4 Nov 2017

@GhassanDahhan Never understood why Liberals like to see an Islamic Reformation. It’s already here: it’s called Salafism. Permalink 9:10 AM – 4 Nov 2017

@nntaleb You can see the Lindy effect: of the 100 authors that made it ~70 y later, I think ~16% had the Nobel. Permalink 9:00 AM – 4 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Correction. Note that Hariri is a BANKRUPT Saudi lackey living partly in Saudi Arabia. Permalink 6:05 AM – 4 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Note that Hariri is a Saudi lackey living partly in Saudi Arabia. Permalink 5:58 AM – 4 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Practical consequence on BigData BS: Divide a state into 16 counties: 17% probability of 1 county RANDOMLY having 6 times the state average. Permalink 5:51 AM – 4 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The shortest (but not necessarily best) answer, using combinatorics. cc:@erugli Permalink 5:07 AM – 4 Nov 2017

@mikeandallie Sharing @nntaleb ‘s dart probability problem with kids:   #math #mathchat Permalink 4:43 AM – 4 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 98 1/8 (Ulysses) Permalink 12:19 PM – 3 Nov 2017

@JackBMontgomery After France orders cross removal, Hungarians ask: “Is everyone entitled to religious freedom except Christians?”   Permalink 8:39 AM – 3 Nov 2017

@nntaleb OK, literary books. Permalink 8:00 AM – 3 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Le Monde’s 100 novels of the 20th C. (actually, good list, average ~ 50 y after pub). How many have you read?   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 7:55 AM – 3 Nov 2017

@PoliticalShort Hillary last week: I didn’t know anything about the dossier until after it was published Hillary this week: Damn right I paid for dossier! Permalink 3:05 PM – 2 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The problem becomes very, very simple if you reformulate it. That’s the point of the exercise. Permalink 6:31 AM – 2 Nov 2017

@nntaleb PROBABILITY QUIZ: How randomness should almost never look random. (spurious cancer cluster in Fooled by Randomness) @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 3:50 AM – 2 Nov 2017

@nntaleb PROBABILITY QUIZ: How randomness should almost never look random. (spurious cancer cluster in Fooled by Randomness) @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 3:50 AM – 2 Nov 2017

@QuantWolfLine At some point the word “liberal” got hijacked…classical liberalism was free markets, freedom of speech, strength of individual liberty, freedom of religion…”neo-liberalism” is completely opposite beholden to collectivism, more power to centralized state, etc. Quite distorted Permalink 6:25 PM – 1 Nov 2017

@ntferris Yes, Arabism is just a secular form of Islam. We are Rum, the Romans Permalink 1:18 PM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Here is my page on arXiV. For now, of course. Will me adding all papers in a few days.   Permalink 1:06 PM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Closed. No more SSRN. Permalink 12:52 PM – 1 Nov 2017

@DavidDiGiovanni Love when someone tries to refute a popular intuition with statistics and then someone who actually understands statistics calls BS   Permalink 12:39 PM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb In other words, what Brenner can’t get, is that the other car on the highway is not trying to kill you. False comparisons. Sad! Permalink 11:03 AM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb People don’t discriminate on ethnicity/class as much as on looks/ attractiveness. Are diversitymongers focusing on wrong attributes? Permalink 11:01 AM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb For those slow in getting it, terrorism is game-theoretic, terrorists get the signal to attack if you reduce vigilance, unlike health. Permalink 10:39 AM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Why we should NEVER compare terrorism to hear attacks. Gabish?   Permalink 10:09 AM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb How to use statistics to produce BS. Total BS. 1)Terrorism is fat-tailed 2) Terrorism is low BECAUSE we fight it.   Permalink 9:54 AM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb There is practically nothing liberal among liberals   via @collegefix Permalink 5:18 AM – 1 Nov 2017

@ccz1 @nntaleb made me aware of this rule of thumb. the less we know the name of the government leader, the more free is that country   Permalink 5:04 AM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Aramaic (bilingual) du jour   Permalink 5:03 AM – 1 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The skin in the game symmetry does more for social justice than all the communist BS taken together. Permalink 1:03 PM – 31 Oct 2017

@paulportesi @nntaleb As you state Nassim, “The evidence come later”. U.S. moves to revoke that soy protein protects the heart   Permalink 6:21 AM – 31 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Why correlation is not …correlation   Permalink 5:57 AM – 31 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Big data schmig data Permalink 5:56 AM – 31 Oct 2017

@nntaleb My class lecture tonite. Why PCAs are not PCAs: noise. Marcenko-Pastur for tin-tails, Monte Carlo for Fat Tails.   Permalink 5:51 AM – 31 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Nitwit, I do not write SCIENTIFIC papers on Medium. Permalink 3:55 AM – 31 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Science should be science. Permalink 3:54 AM – 31 Oct 2017

@nntaleb I am closing my account with SSRN. My papers will be on ArXiv. Permalink 3:45 AM – 31 Oct 2017

@NAChristakis This is what rule of law looks like. Liberal professor who I’m sure has no love of DT (& neither do I), makes this argument. #respect 1/   Permalink 10:34 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@gbponz if @nntaleb were to be chairman of UK’s FSA, an A4 sheet would contain all necessary rules. double spaced. Permalink 10:14 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Further, wrongly accusing someone of “discrimination” is as odious as discrimination itself. @RogueRad Permalink 8:47 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@nntaleb decision without asymmetry science without skepticism Permalink 8:40 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@nntaleb #Asymmetry Permalink 7:59 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Sexism, racism, & other forms of discrimination are odious Some don’t get that discrimination in the opposite direction is equally odious Permalink 7:53 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@nntaleb OK, OK. The book is done. Permalink 5:24 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@normonics In the not distant future, GMO peddlers will be widely regarded the way cigarette peddlers are Permalink 5:18 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@nntaleb I have no trouble paying, it is just the paperwork. Permalink 4:41 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Practically EVERYTHING MSM told us about the Syrian war was bull***t. Bull***t manipulated by Qatar/Saudi Arabia.   Permalink 4:06 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Friends, looking for a public domain picture of Eddie Hall weightlifting. Thanks in advance! Permalink 3:47 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@sazohaib would love to recommend my son INCERTO as Bible to face real life. @nntaleb real thanks and love!! Permalink 1:45 AM – 30 Oct 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Coin Tossing Contest   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 11:18 AM – 29 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Quiz du jour as a general solution to A B’s quiz. Permalink 11:01 AM – 29 Oct 2017

@DrKassandraPari Fine principle And it’s prominently enshrined in Art 1 + 3 Permalink 9:51 AM – 29 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Hammurabi’s code: He who falsely accuses someone of a crime is to be penaliized as if he committed it himself Applies to all: right,left,… Permalink 7:31 AM – 29 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Maybe it is not for you. You should go read someone else. Or the @NewYorker Permalink 6:21 AM – 29 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Give a text to a copy editor. He will make 3 changes per page. Accept,then give to another editor. You still get 3 changes per page,& so on.   Permalink 5:41 AM – 29 Oct 2017

@nntaleb There are not two different issues. Never contradict your political stance w/your personal behavior. That’s the idea of #skininthegame   Permalink 2:25 AM – 29 Oct 2017

@MarkDice Hey @Jack, please explain the rationale for suspending Roger Stone, but not Keith Olbermann. — Signed, every conservative on Twitter. Permalink 7:25 PM – 28 Oct 2017

@garyruskin “It’s a situation that is so catastrophic and appalling,” farmer says about the use of #Monsanto’s #dicamba product   Permalink 10:27 AM – 28 Oct 2017

@nntaleb IRS bureaucrats harm citizens. They pay a fine, not paid by bureaucrats, but by the government, that is, citizens. #skininthegame   Permalink 9:36 AM – 28 Oct 2017

@jeitoapp The Lindy Effect exists precisely to discount short term luck Permalink 9:23 AM – 28 Oct 2017

@nntaleb By definition, what works cannot be irrational. #lindy, #skininthegame Permalink 9:19 AM – 28 Oct 2017

@justinno Beginning @nntaleb’s Bed of Procrustes, first two aphorisms get right to why/skin in the game. (Will read more when 2yo gives book back) Permalink 5:39 AM – 28 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Classify Iranians as “Asians”,then you MUST classify ½ classics as “Asians”:Lydians, Bithynians,Ponthians, Cilicians, ~all church founders Permalink 5:09 AM – 28 Oct 2017

@nntaleb How to deal with copyeditors. The more nitpicking a copyeditor, the more likely he is to miss an important mistake. Permalink 4:38 AM – 28 Oct 2017

@nntaleb How many of the people retweeting this actally have courage? 1 in 100? 1 in 1000?   Permalink 5:04 PM – 27 Oct 2017

@nntaleb “Mr T, I like your work but you call too many pple fraudsters” Me: “There are many fraudsters” Permalink 4:47 PM – 27 Oct 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Probabilities in powers of 2 Permalink 11:19 AM – 27 Oct 2017

@darwinemkt & only ppl who put their careers on the line, like @jordanbpeterson & @GadSaad do, can claim to having #skininthegame 2/2 Permalink 9:21 AM – 27 Oct 2017

@nntaleb You need to realize that the only thing a career academic can really teach you is how to be a career academic. Gabish? Permalink 8:18 AM – 27 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Sutor, ne ultra crepidam   Permalink 3:18 AM – 27 Oct 2017

@nntaleb There is NEVER (narrow) evidence of Black Swans before event By Hitchen’s logic, someone who never died = immortal, as no evidence of death. Permalink 3:16 AM – 27 Oct 2017

@nntaleb The heroes of history were not virtue-signaling library rats. You can’t learn classical values from career “classicists”. (just added) Permalink 2:45 AM – 27 Oct 2017

@s3og6e .@nntaleb next book >Skin in the Game< is coming out Feb 27. I can’t wait to read it. His announcement on FB.   Permalink 2:32 AM – 27 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Relying on Hitchens on matters of evidence (& limits of it) is no different from relying on a random flight attendant for fixing a rocket.   Permalink 2:51 PM – 26 Oct 2017

@RonPaulInstitut US Allows Saudi Arabia To Plant Wahhabi Seed In Raqqa Rubble   Permalink 1:49 PM – 26 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Twitter involuntarily helped Donaldo get elected. This is just to appease the conspirationistas.   Permalink 9:08 AM – 26 Oct 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Balls of Two Colors   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:37 AM – 26 Oct 2017

@nntaleb   Permalink 7:07 AM – 26 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Added to the Logic of Risk Taking:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:07 AM – 26 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Some only find expression as part of mob shaming, when SAFE to do so, & in the bargain, think that they are displaying virtue. Not virtue. Permalink 6:13 AM – 26 Oct 2017

@nntaleb A modern novel for the Byzantine Ambassador representing the Ottomans as continuation @byzantinepower Permalink 4:02 AM – 26 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Great move. The UN is a machine made to serve its bureaucrats & the journo monoculture.   Permalink 2:10 AM – 26 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Isocrates Silver Rule: Treat weaker states the way you would like stronger states to treat you. Apply to Calalunya. #skininthegame Permalink 1:32 AM – 26 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Minority rule.   Permalink 5:04 PM – 25 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Rough Volatility Process (using a Voltera roughness coefficient) Permalink 11:34 AM – 25 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Not moral to tell the Catalans whether they shd be independent, unless you let them decide on your own sovereignty #skininthegame #symmetry Permalink 10:36 AM – 25 Oct 2017

@JulianAssange Democrats spent the last 11 months building a neo-mccarthyite monster. The GOP has now saddled it to run them down. Entirely predictable. Permalink 9:27 AM – 25 Oct 2017

@euronewsfr Happening contre le #glyphosate à Bruxelles #nocomment Permalink 7:25 AM – 25 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Scholarships open for Real World Risk Certificate Nov 13-17   Note that we are 100% uncensored. No thought police. Permalink 7:16 AM – 25 Oct 2017

@alwyn_lau Thanks to @twilliamok for treating me to the best squid ink pasta in Spore! @nntaleb will probably love it too Permalink 6:13 AM – 25 Oct 2017

@garyruskin #Monsanto Faces Blowback Over Cancer Cover-Up   Via @philipbethge @DerSPIEGEL #MonsantoPapers #glyphosate Permalink 5:56 AM – 24 Oct 2017

@SimonDeDeo I’ve written before on the bad stats in election prediction; pleased to see this new preprint from @nntaleb   Permalink 4:43 AM – 24 Oct 2017

@charles_dandolo Voilà qui devrait intéresser @nntaleb   Permalink 2:15 AM – 24 Oct 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Probability à la Tristram Shandy #FigureThat #math #probability Permalink 7:35 AM – 20 Oct 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Given the probability, Find the sample space   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 2:29 PM – 19 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Rothschild, @davmicrot, unlike @AlanDersh is rather clueless about his own profession: election forecasting   Permalink 2:41 AM – 19 Oct 2017

@ShipSystem This is the full interview (22min, youtube)   Absolutely worth it Permalink 8:39 AM – 18 Oct 2017

@AlanDersh My commitment to free speech doesn’t depend on who is president.   Permalink 7:48 AM – 18 Oct 2017

@AStratelates That’s why we should follow the @nntaleb method of finding psychological properties described by the ancients that are validated by moderns.   Permalink 8:27 PM – 17 Oct 2017

@nntaleb One can write books on options & pass for “expert” w/o realizing pple don’t hold positions for 8 y; they change daily. BS vendor.   Permalink 5:45 PM – 17 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Anyone who reads Arabic, Aramaic/Hebr. shd have noticed there is NO aleph (always separate); only resembrance is to Aram. Shin => Russian Ш   Permalink 3:16 PM – 17 Oct 2017

@naderamin The issue is that it’s not ok to say that North Africans look “black” Permalink 2:48 PM – 16 Oct 2017

@mikeharrisNY This is worth watching. @nntaleb reveals how famous traders can be destroyed in a single day.   Permalink 1:58 PM – 16 Oct 2017

@NennaAltiora Meds r useful 4 nordic supremacists to either claim or use as tokens if they come from the wrong side of the Med,replaceable by any ‘ethnic’ Permalink 9:59 AM – 16 Oct 2017

@babolix Getting echoes of @nntaleb ‘s spat with historians from John Grays latest column in the New Statesman:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:29 AM – 16 Oct 2017

@BloombergTV The Black Monday crash was 30 years ago this week. “Black Swan” author Nassim Taleb recounts the experience   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:16 AM – 16 Oct 2017

@GeorgeJNasr …Levantines, Semites, Africans… We all still exist in spite pseudo historians in the West . kudos2 Nassim 4giving us back our voice Permalink 5:42 AM – 16 Oct 2017

@nntaleb For details, this is what Prof Beard did not like. Will her mob harrass Medium now?   Permalink 4:23 AM – 16 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Dear Prof. Beard, I am aware of your attempts (direct & via an overactive mob) at constraining my rights of expression. The answer is no. Permalink 2:52 AM – 16 Oct 2017

@nntaleb 4) Saw BS accounts of Lebanese war from journos talking to other journos at a bar in Beirut now into history books.   Permalink 7:38 PM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb 3) => fraudsters like a low-IQ Swede who read books abt Levant determining what MY ethno-national identity shd be.   Permalink 7:29 PM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb 2) The mechanism is historian cite historian cite historian, with a weird chain, as Indians say Salma told Sabrina. All over hist of wars. Permalink 7:17 PM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Just in case you want more example that historians are bullshitters.   Permalink 7:10 PM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Querry: Is Ketchum involved in executing the “Let Nothing Go” program by Monsanto (which targeted me & failed)?   Permalink 6:53 PM – 15 Oct 2017

@primalpoly Why can’t students stand free speech? They were raised to be frangible. We need #antifragile parenting & schools.   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 6:13 PM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb 1/ Many aggressive pseudolibs have smthg highly politically incorrect hidden in them. -Weinstein demeans women -Mary Beard is deeply racist Permalink 5:37 PM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Fixed typo, shd be >=71 not >1 Tightened equation Permalink 4:52 PM – 15 Oct 2017

@CutTheKnotMath An inequality with integrals and constraints   #FigureThat #math #algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:16 PM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb So stage works best when it is set by design to be v. different from life. Not, like Hollywood, trying to make life an imitation of itself. Permalink 9:50 AM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Theater works best when actors wear masks, signifying the actor’s idiosyncracies are supplanted by those of the character. Permalink 9:12 AM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb Now is CNN aware that misogynist Michael Weiss violates the moral and ethical rules that CNN itself claims having? Permalink 8:48 AM – 15 Oct 2017

@nntaleb So not only do actors not look like other citizens, they don’t behave like other citizens & movies misrepresent lives of citizens. All fake! Permalink 8:43 AM – 15 Oct 2017

Nassim Taleb on Black Monday, Fed, Market Lessons | Bloomberg

Bloomberg TV Markets and Finance
Published on Oct 16, 2017
Oct.16 — The Black Monday crash was 30 years ago this week. “Black Swan” author Nassim Taleb was a trader for First Boston at the time. He made a lot of money while others lost fortunes. He recounts the experience with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker.