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On Interventionistas and their Mental Defects | Medium

On Interventionistas and their Mental Defects

Skin in the Game is necessary to reduce the effects of the following divergences that arose mainly as a side effect of civilization: action and cheap talk (tawk), consequence and intention, practice and theory, honor and reputation, expertise and pseudoexpertise, concrete and abstract, ethical and legal, genuine and cosmetic, entrepreneur and bureaucrat, entrepreneur and chief executive, strength and display, love and gold-digging, Coventry and Brussels, Omaha and Washington, D.C., economists and human beings, authors and editors, scholarship and academia, democracy and governance, science and scientism, politics and politicians, love and money, the spirit and the letter, Cato the Elder and Barack Obama, quality and advertising, commitment and signaling, and, centrally, collective and individual.

How to Live in a World we Don’t Understand

Published on Mar 12, 2017

https://www.bigspeak.com/speakers/nassim-taleb/

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has devoted his life to immersing himself in problems of luck, randomness, human error, probability, and the philosophy of knowledge. He transformed his interests into three successful careers – as a businessman-trader, a philosophical essayist, and an academic researcher.

Although he spends most of his time as a flâneur, meditating in cafés across the planet, he is currently Distinguished Professor at New York University’s Polytechnic Institute.

His books, Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan have been published in 31 languages with more than 3 million copies in print. The Black Swan idea is currently inspiring research papers in philosophy, statistics, psychology, economics, medical research, epidemiology, political science, and engineering.

Taleb specializes in uncertainty and errors in human knowledge, teaching us how to deal with, and benefit from, unpredictability.

To hire this speaker to speak at your next event, contact BigSpeak Speakers Bureau (805) 965-1400

CNN, Fatty Lamb, Easter, Minsk, UAL, Palm Sunday, Donaldo, Facta Non Verba, Peter Hitchens | Twitter

@nntaleb I speculate that no gym machine can raise one’s BPM (beats per minute) more than sprinting outside, particularly uphill. True? Permalink 6:31 AM – 18 Apr 2017

@NonMeek .@nntaleb My humble attempt of conveying the concepts “iatrogenics” and “negative convexity effect” from #Antifragile in one strip. pic.twitter.com/hBXeESTlvI Permalink 10:40 AM – 17 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Today, The Black Swan turns 10 years old. (Fooled by Randomness is ~16 y.o., Procrustes ~7, and Antifragile ~5) Permalink 9:11 AM – 17 Apr 2017

@MaxAbrahms Trump only cares about Sunni, not Shiite children (I’d expand that claim beyond Trump to most media & think tanks).http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/syria-suicide-attack-refugee-buses-trump-only-cares-sunni-children-a7687066.html   Permalink 5:44 AM – 17 Apr 2017

@nntaleb We need to help CNN go out of business. I involuntarily get their propaganda in lounges as they blast the #fakenewshttps://medium.com/incerto/the-facts-are-true-the-news-is-fake-5bf98104cea2   Permalink 5:36 PM – 16 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Was this week in 4 airline lounges” Warsaw, Vienna, Minsk, NY. ALL were blasting CNN How do we get airport lounges to stop having #fakenews?https://twitter.com/dancohen3000/status/853352680336523265   Permalink 5:27 PM – 16 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Rule I’ve learned today. After 47 vegan days (with v. few exceptions), do not overeat fatty lamb. Permalink 5:15 PM – 16 Apr 2017

@JulianAssange After the massacre of shiite refugee families in Syria yesterday let’s recall the Western media’s original CIA backed “moderate rebel” pic.twitter.com/K8ZiF1Fjmn Permalink 3:53 PM – 16 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Lamb after 47 days pic.twitter.com/JW7FzETLqA Permalink 12:14 PM – 16 Apr 2017

@nntaleb #LindyEffecthttps://twitter.com/litteracarolina/status/852950922196131841   Permalink 8:28 AM – 16 Apr 2017

@MaxAbrahms Do a thought experiment: Imagine how much more & intense media coverage would be if Assad had massacred all those civilians yesterday. Permalink 6:13 AM – 16 Apr 2017

@MaxAbrahms That’s totally nuts if you’ve at all been following the media coverage disparity. Shia lives simply don’t matter.https://twitter.com/maxabrahms/status/853450526834511872   Permalink 8:33 PM – 15 Apr 2017

@since33 Christ is Risen! Khristós Anésti! Hristos voskrese! لمسيح قام! حقا قام! ܫܪܝܪܐܝܬ ܩܡ! Photo: Holy Sepulchre #Easter pic.twitter.com/AbZ8NaYXM7 Permalink 12:12 PM – 15 Apr 2017

@nntaleb “Intellectual elite”= people selected ability to get: 1 statics, not dynamics 2 actions, not interactions 3 low, not high dimensionality. Permalink 11:34 AM – 15 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The main result of “improvement” by US regime changists (Obama/Hillary) & backing rebels is depletion of original Christians in Syria.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/853285539981787137   Permalink 10:31 AM – 15 Apr 2017

@nntaleb IYIs are good at “removing” w/o grasping 2nd step/complex systems Removing “dictators” & replacing w… Removing “religion” & replacing w…https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/853292130252582912   Permalink 10:29 AM – 15 Apr 2017

@BrankoMilan This is a good news!https://twitter.com/DeanBaker13/status/853295617787006976   Permalink 10:20 AM – 15 Apr 2017

@thogge Very good. as you elude to, nothing angered Jesus more than virtue-signaling empty-sepulcher Pharisees. saved his toughest rebukes for them Permalink 8:58 AM – 15 Apr 2017

@nntaleb You cannot truly celebrate Easter if you didn’t pay a price for it: lent & fasting.https://medium.com/@nntaleb/no-worship-without-skin-in-the-game-70b4aa341092   Permalink 5:02 AM – 15 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Borin Johnson has all the shortcomings attributed to Trump by his detractors & none of the qualities assumed by his followers. Permalink 3:59 AM – 15 Apr 2017

@sahouraxo Hundreds of Syrian Christians attended their very first #GoodFriday mass in #Aleppo’s St. Elijah Cathedral in nearly five years. #Syria pic.twitter.com/wVkYT1WysE Permalink 5:18 PM – 14 Apr 2017

@NonMeek .@nntaleb #Antifragile’s chapter 21 provides the framework for today’s @Offshorecomic (books V & VI are just marvelous) #IYI #Academics pic.twitter.com/hyqN5QYla8 Permalink 10:30 AM – 14 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The Donald coverging on Isocrates Golden Rule for Foreign Affairs: Treat other nations the way you want yours to be treated #SkinIntheGamehttps://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/852510810287075329   Permalink 6:57 AM – 14 Apr 2017

@KenMcCarthy The idiot news media is STILL confusing denying boarding w VIOLENTLY removing a BOARDED passenger. The latter is literally a criminal act Permalink 6:51 AM – 14 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Question: one has two thin green horizontal stripes, the other a thick longitudinal smear. Permalink 2:19 PM – 13 Apr 2017

@Alexa__Bella The lack of journalistic integrity here is astounding @EliLake~2nd story in 2wks you’ve stolen frm @Cernovich & claimed it as your own~C’mon Permalink 2:07 PM – 13 Apr 2017

@schmittpaula “Washington Post Doesn’t Disclose Writer Supporting Syria Strike Is a Lobbyist for Tomahawk Missile Manufacturer”http://www.alternet.org/grayzone-project/wash-post-writer-supporting-syria-strike-lobbyist#.WO69XR4sew8.twitter   Permalink 8:55 AM – 13 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Minsk pic.twitter.com/fPKrpowi97 Permalink 5:50 AM – 13 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Max has a thread on how “Aleppo” side casualties were much less than Mosul; Salafi PR/think tanks promoted “butcher of Aleppo”.https://twitter.com/MaxAbrahms/status/852469578080956416   Permalink 4:24 AM – 13 Apr 2017

@nntaleb If someone pays you for anything other than a specific transaction, you are a slave.https://medium.com/incerto/how-to-legally-own-another-person-4145a1802bf6   Permalink 3:54 AM – 13 Apr 2017

@wikileaks “[al-Quada] is on our side in Syria”–email from policy advisor to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (Feb 2012) https://wikileaks.org/clinton-emails/emailid/23225#efmAGIAHu   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/k6hIk68nvC”>  pic.twitter.com/k6hIk68nvC Permalink 2:04 PM – 12 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Paula have you seen many children without… mothers? And that was Nusra. Permalink 11:49 AM – 12 Apr 2017

@nntaleb She is good. Very good. That’s how statisticians and detectives think.https://twitter.com/partisangirl/status/852219568818802688   Permalink 11:26 AM – 12 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The world is a better place today than it was over the weekend. Now I can go back to working on my Fat Tails papers.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/852183092420857856   Permalink 8:39 AM – 12 Apr 2017

@EHSANI22 Leading CW expert Theodor Postol of MIT just published a 14-page document questioning WH claims that Sarin was dropped from #Syrian AF plane pic.twitter.com/kMJgxwsN8Z Permalink 8:36 AM – 12 Apr 2017

@0ma6e lots of charlatans revealing themselves with this spicer story @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/UTuKZGujX3 Permalink 7:10 AM – 12 Apr 2017

@13125x lots of charlatans revealing themselves with this spicer story @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/UTuKZGujX3 Permalink 7:10 AM – 12 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The NYT is for and by IYIs like Haberman, insecure philistines & fake intellectuals. The Post is to the point & vastly less pretentious.https://twitter.com/maggienyt/status/852028786358984705   Permalink 10:38 PM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Great news; looks like we have the answerhttp://nypost.com/2017/04/11/trump-were-not-going-into-syria/   Permalink 9:58 PM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The worst part of the story is the ongoing smear campaign against the UAL victim, to attenuate their mistreatment. Permalink 8:30 PM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Think tankers & journos are usually low IQ, intell. insecure & living in financial insecurity. They only attack those who cannot harm them. Permalink 6:08 PM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb My idea of writing essays is to make sure the reader has ABSOLUTELY no idea what will be discussed on the next page. Otherwise textbookish.https://twitter.com/Maximilian_H1/status/851806211179675648   Permalink 5:28 PM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb To those who aren’t traders YET discuss UAL’s “billions in losses” in valuation. The market move today is TOTALLY within noise. pic.twitter.com/LUZXX7KnQ9 Permalink 2:49 PM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb God bless you if true, @Cernovichhttps://twitter.com/cernovich/status/851897652711104512   Permalink 1:52 PM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb So this fellow speaks for a group claiming an evidence-based study of the Syrian problem?https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/851861056385417219   Permalink 11:32 AM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 2) To those IYI idiots w/cost-free virtue signaling, I have 6 Syrian refugees on my property in Lebanon. Without #Skininthegame, shut up. Permalink 9:23 AM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The Assad family blew up my house. But I forcefully OPPOSE his removal. Better have a Franco than Gadhafi transitionhttps://medium.com/opacity/the-syrian-war-condensed-a-more-rigorous-way-to-look-at-the-conflict-f841404c3b1d   Permalink 8:52 AM – 11 Apr 2017

@EHSANI22 This type of media-induced policy shift — once called the CNN effect — is not newhttps://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/04/10/did-media-images-just-change-u-s-policy-in-syria-three-lessons-from-kosovo/   Permalink 7:21 AM – 11 Apr 2017

@DanielLMcAdams With no shame…https://twitter.com/JustinRaimondo/status/851801487285952512   Permalink 7:20 AM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb At a Seder last night was asked to read a fragment in Aramaic in the original accent.Unprepared for the diacriticals https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/Seder.m4a   Permalink 6:57 AM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Did @realDonaldTrump betray his constituency by taking a neocon fragilista interventionist approach to regime change, or is it just noise? Permalink 5:44 AM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb I just published “Real Life is Risk Taking”https://medium.com/p/real-life-is-risk-taking-ac424efd5fcc   Permalink 4:58 AM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Without #skininthegame people keep repeating the same mistakes.https://twitter.com/adamjohnsonNYC/status/851217595957211137   Permalink 4:32 AM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Sawiris (a Copt, Severus) is saying that states are attacking terrorists, but ignoring the Sheikhs preaching terror, real source.https://twitter.com/NaguibSawiris/status/851005866165895168   Permalink 4:10 AM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Instead of increasing the $$, United opted to forcibly remove a passenger. They fughotaboud markets. Do they deserve punishment by markets? Permalink 3:56 AM – 11 Apr 2017

@nntaleb My best profile except that, to retaliate [see story], the angry photographer whom I insulted made my face swell.https://twitter.com/lucknow_leopard/status/851449213028364288   Permalink 8:32 AM – 10 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Conspiracy theorists in the opposite direction: I will transit in Warsaw instead. Note: you need a Russian visa to transit in Moscow-> Minskhttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/850389220241924099   Permalink 7:11 AM – 10 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Scott Ritter’s account is very rational. Something in this CW story seems strange: forensic evidence coming from …AlQaeda.https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/851190584752656386   Permalink 2:55 PM – 9 Apr 2017

@nntaleb I was actually stuck in ATL for 7 hours. Benefit: Started model of tail risk from flights scheduled too close to one another.https://twitter.com/mikephillips1/status/850842831774154753   Permalink 12:21 PM – 9 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Unlike Copts: Shiites, Leb Christians, Alawites & Druze are armed to the teeth They know NO Sunni gov can really protect them #SkinintheGame Permalink 8:53 AM – 9 Apr 2017

@dkbissinger @nntaleb how reading news reduces one’s knowledgehttps://twitter.com/rypauley/status/851034975717687296   Permalink 7:48 AM – 9 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Adding a section to The Intellectual Yet Idiot https://medium.com/incerto/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/cLdJyKhakf”>  pic.twitter.com/cLdJyKhakf Permalink 7:23 AM – 9 Apr 2017

@GennadySimanovs since now every economist tried to convince me that opposite is true and 1% of Top doesw not pay taxes at all cc @stevesi @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/5MsFhMdVD0 Permalink 7:21 AM – 9 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Happy Palm Sunday to all. Permalink 6:06 AM – 9 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Now, a strike against the originating Saudi Arabian airfield is needed for consistency. I am certain that pics of children are on the way.https://twitter.com/YemenPostNews/status/850700849424855041   Permalink 2:23 PM – 8 Apr 2017

@nntaleb From reactions of “libertarians” to Syrian strikes: they view + The state as the main agent of war + War as main pretense for state powers. Permalink 1:02 PM – 8 Apr 2017

@Cernovich Entire air strike may be been kayfabe, which was predicted by @ScottAdamsSays, deemed likely by @nntaleb.http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4390942/Syria-claims-KNEW-launch-airstrikes.html   Permalink 9:51 AM – 8 Apr 2017

@nntaleb So I too fell for the Tophet baby-killermsmear campaign ag Phoenicians! Children cemeteries were because of … simple children mortality pic.twitter.com/jRzSC1RxfR Permalink 8:35 AM – 8 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The most ancient smear campaign is the “baby killer”, used against Punic & Canaanites (only partly justifiable w/the tophet). #LindyEffect Permalink 8:07 AM – 8 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The most ancient smear campaign is the “baby killer”, used against Punic & Canaanites (only partly justifiable w/the tophet). #LindyEffect Permalink 8:07 AM – 8 Apr 2017

@catoletters Nikki Haley begins each UN speech with the Used Car Salesman pitch “Let tell you the truth”, “Let me be honest with you” Permalink 7:17 AM – 8 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 2) Note: Social media: a) distributes images of children b) unlike MSM doesn’t filter WHICH children to show. This may help peace. Maybe. Permalink 7:16 AM – 8 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 2nd order effects: Once you make policy based on PICTURES of children victims, ALL parties will now produce pictures of children. Kapish? Permalink 6:40 AM – 8 Apr 2017

@CamilleOtrakji When the US+UK were working on toppling Iran’s popular prime minister in 1953, the lovely BBC was part of regime change, just like today pic.twitter.com/OMqlfBOQKl Permalink 4:34 AM – 8 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Convexity effect # Antifragilehttps://twitter.com/fermatslibrary/status/850448409777520640   Permalink 7:00 PM – 7 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Not so fast… Something to consider. Egyptians are saying 4 children,5 adults died. Retaliate for death of children by…killing children? pic.twitter.com/dVBLqhpqZ7 Permalink 6:38 PM – 7 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Apparently they spared the runway (2 fighter jets took off today). “Drole de guerre” (phony war). Donaldo playing MSM & libs like a violin. pic.twitter.com/SfvD819J6p Permalink 6:06 PM – 7 Apr 2017

@tlhote A french teacher at the officer academy of St Cyr is explaining in more details in your direction.http://conscientia.fr/2017/04/07/frappe-us-en-syrie-la-nuit-des-dupes-masquait-un-joli-de-coup-de-billard/#more-838   Permalink 2:28 PM – 7 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Squid ink in a diluted sauce w/ tomato pic.twitter.com/HrFotSMdGd Permalink 9:47 AM – 7 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Conspiracy theorists: For the record, I will transit in Moscow airport new week on way to a conference in a neighboring country. Permalink 9:46 AM – 7 Apr 2017

@gt_carter Hey @nntaleb how does it feel to always be right? ;-) Permalink 7:30 AM – 7 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The strike has ~0 military impact. Russians were informed & Syrians could clear area. All it says: no Chem Weapons even if it wasn’t you. Permalink 6:42 AM – 7 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Did Prez Trump do a “Facta Non Verba” on Assad? So he could control him? Yes, he did on Assad, N Korea, China…https://medium.com/incerto/facta-non-verba-how-to-own-your-enemies-ea79a34c9c49   Permalink 5:39 AM – 7 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Media pple of 2017 In Hammurabi’s code, ~3750 y. ago, a false accusation was punished as if the accuser committed the crime. Be careful. Permalink 2:39 PM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 5) Bravo! While MSM & policymakers are childlishly driven by images, this man is starting a v. rigorous process!!!https://www.rootclaim.com/claims/what-caused-the-chemical-calamity-in-khan-sheikhoun-syria-on-april-4-2017-18448   Permalink 1:28 PM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 4) Worrisome: IF Assad has all to lose from such an act AND it happened, THEN he may have lost control of some of his troups. Permalink 12:49 PM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 4) Worrisome: IF Assad has all to lose from such an act AND it happened, THEN he may have lost control of some of his troups. Permalink 12:49 PM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb As a researcher I cannot possibly support a given party or person 100%. Never unconditional support. I support policies, never factions. Permalink 12:26 PM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb As a researcher I cannot possibly support a given party or person 100%. Never unconditional support. I support policies, never factions. Permalink 12:26 PM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 3) On the other hand, IF the story is true, THEN some action is needed. Permalink 11:51 AM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 3) On the other hand, IF the story is true, THEN some action is needed. Permalink 11:51 AM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 2) Historically blood libels against Jews have taken same shape: generalized hysteria on stories of children kidnapped & drained of blood Permalink 11:06 AM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb He pronounced “Kabish?”https://twitter.com/udaberg/status/850016348268843008   Permalink 9:15 AM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Investigate, don’t be blinded by emo-pictures. Can be true but 3750 years of justice system shouldn’t be wiped out by Qatari PR !https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/849797885357109249   Permalink 7:50 AM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Very very unorthodox but it works pic.twitter.com/QVrRhxCTom Permalink 7:26 AM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb I am not yet certain that it’s a lie, but I am not certain it is truth. We need more rigorous investigation BEFORE policy statements.https://twitter.com/DanielLMcAdams/status/849871224494804992   Permalink 6:36 AM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The Susan Rice Affair: 1) Today, unlike in 1970, EVERYTHING government officials do leaves indelible traces 2) They are likely to forget it Permalink 6:05 AM – 6 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Slight mistake thta dpesn’t matter for m=0: mad should be \int \sqrt{(x-m)^2} dx Permalink 8:27 PM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb How BS vendors BS, a sample.https://twitter.com/quinnovator/status/849801913755353088   Permalink 8:19 PM – 5 Apr 2017

@Darius1296 One should do the opposite. A good heuristic would be: the more potent the pictures, the more you question the evidence. Permalink 2:25 PM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Syria: Are people reacting to the pictures of children or from EVIDENCE? The more potent the pictures, the less you question the evidence. Permalink 2:20 PM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb As you can see, I got this from HIS feed. pic.twitter.com/s7lvHNE638 Permalink 12:14 PM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Note that 2/4 is 4/2 in US. Kapish? Permalink 12:11 PM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 2) The only person I know who is both famous & technically superior is Mathematica’s Stephen @Wolfram Not an academic. Never met Gell-Mann Permalink 11:50 AM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 2) The only person I know who is both famous & technically superior is Mathematica’s Stephen @Wolfram Not an academic. Never met Gell-Mann Permalink 11:50 AM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb The plot thickens.https://twitter.com/HKX07/status/849460664376709120   Permalink 11:43 AM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Probability Du Jour: The border between thin tails & fat tails resides in exponential distribution. Maximum entropy under MAD constraint. pic.twitter.com/cAXWRqVzS9 Permalink 11:38 AM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Peter Hitchens, the smart brother http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2017/04/its-wmd-all-over-again-why-dont-you-see-it-.html   Permalink 9:38 AM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb This is how the Fat Tails book looks like pic.twitter.com/7ybHj56YFX Permalink 8:24 AM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Interesting.https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/849635794994286592   Permalink 8:08 AM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb These MBA charts are repelling, they stand ag. everything classical & rigorous.https://twitter.com/hjarche/status/849626971269189632   Permalink 7:21 AM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb Wildcard criticism: sentences that can apply to anything, s.a. “narcissistic”, “he thinks he knows everything”,… https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10154746535088375   Permalink 6:30 AM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 2) I understand Tillerson was not a risk-taking entrepreneur, but executive is better, much better than bureaucrat. Kapish? Permalink 5:54 AM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb 4) Paranoia has a statistical analog: Akaike & similar, the ratio of complexity/overparametrization of the fitted function to # data points. Permalink 5:29 AM – 5 Apr 2017

@nntaleb BS vendors are not used to people like Tillerson who don’t like to spend their lives crafting statements, talk, talk and talk.https://twitter.com/kjhealy/status/849420383753261060   Permalink 3:56 AM – 5 Apr 2017

We’ve Lost Touch With The Real World Especially In The EU

Published on Mar 27, 2017
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Statistician, Author, The Black Swan states that we have lost touch with the real world especially the EU.

Why Each One Should Eat His Own Turtles: Equality in Uncertainty | Medium

Why Each One Should Eat His Own Turtles: Equality in Uncertainty

It was said that a group of fishermen caught a large number of turtles. After cooking them, they found out at the communal meal that these sea animals were much less edible that they thought: not many members of the group were willing to eat them. But Mercury happened to be passing by –Mercury was the most multitasking, sort of put-together god, as he was the boss of commerce, abundance, messengers, the underworld, as well as the patron of thieves and brigands and, not surprisingly, luck. The group invited him to join them and offered him the turtles to eat. Detecting that he was only invited to relieve them of the unwanted food, he forced them all to eat the turtles, thus establishing the principle that you need to eat what you feed others.