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NYT, Osteocalcin, Lebanon, Reforestation, Bayesianistas | Twitter

On the Shadow Moments of Apparently Infinite-Mean Phenomena Authors Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Pasquale Cirillo

@nntaleb The idea of #skininthegame is that nobody shd cause risk to others without impunity.   Permalink 9:36 AM – 5 Aug 2018

@nntaleb BS vending @josephinequinn is spreading theory that “Phoenicians didn’t exist”(loved by Arabists) on anachronistic acct of absence of national identity/self-designator (No Ph. integrated centralized rule). The Neanderthals never existed by same analysis. Same for Elephants… Permalink 9:29 AM – 5 Aug 2018

@spyrosmakrid This is the updated Outline of the paper “Forecasting in Social Sciences: State of the Art”. I would like to thank all those who send me comments and suggestions for improvements. I hope I have incorporated them correctly, given the constrain of not having > than 4 bullet points Permalink 7:59 AM – 5 Aug 2018

@yaneerbaryam The Precautionary Principle is considered by Court of Justice of the EU as an anchor of European Law in ruling that affects use of CRISPR genetic modification   @normonics @nntaleb @rupertread @PrecPrinciple Permalink 5:23 AM – 5 Aug 2018

@brian_trollz You harassed a man who had nothing to do with Bitcoin, based on nothing but what could only be interpreted as “evidence” in the mind of a deranged stalker, and you enjoyed being supported in that? Good to know. Permalink 6:15 PM – 4 Aug 2018

@spyrosmakrid I am working on part of a paper on “Forecasting in Social Sciences: State of the Art” to be part of the Special Issue of the International Journal of Forecasting on the M4 Competition.. Any comments, suggestions, differences, objections will be welcomed. Permalink 10:10 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This is the upper portion of the Qadisha (pronounced here “2odisha”) valley today. You can see the rising tree-line from reforestation. Permalink 9:56 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The mountain had been terraced to farm staples (mostly wheat) & trees were of no use (except for fruit bearing ones). Unseen positive side effect of Ottoman Christian Millets inheritance laws. Permalink 9:29 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@normonics “risk denialists” is a better term. I’m going to go with that Better reveals their standing as ideologues   Permalink 7:12 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This forest in Northern Lebanon (7adat) is owed to the fact that it was agrigultural land & the owners died w/the Titanic. Nobody could get the right papers to farm. Permalink 4:37 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@EHSANI22 With all mixed reactions to @RaniaKhalek article below, it’s important to stay focused on the subject of reconciliation as a policy tool compared to the national land top down approach of Geneva that was pushed by a number of policy makers at the time. Small is beautiful @nntaleb   Permalink 1:08 PM – 3 Aug 2018

@primalpoly BTW, I don’t want the @NYTimesPR to fire Jeong. Demanding a firing implies some faith that a company could rediscover its ethical compass. Rather, I’m supporting a consumer boycott of a moribund newspaper that’s proven itself wickedly prejudiced & hopelessly partisan. Permalink 11:52 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb It’s not like when the NYT condoned/caused the Iraq invasion out of ignorance / arrogance. This is a blatant violation of fundamental ethics. Permalink 7:50 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Never compromise on fundamental ethics. Never. Be honorable and never read anything in the @nytimes Permalink 7:16 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb With left to right @PZalloua, Hareth (Aretas) Boustany, & Hiram Corm (son of Charles Corm) at the Charles Corm foundation. Permalink 6:29 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@Once_there_was_   A great provoking read by @nntaleb especially in current climate. Will always remember @nytimes apology letter. Permalink 6:22 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Too disgusted to talk to the @nytimes Permalink 2:27 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Stability is owed to the following: Christians believe Lebanon is the first stop in the West (Europa was Phoenician); Sunnis believe Lebanon is the last stop in the East; Shiites (now) believe Lebanon is just Lebanon. Permalink 2:18 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@NickSzabo4 The more San Francisco code censors this topic, the more I’m going to retweet the many great censored tweets on it. The New York Times has with no remorse hired a pathological racist and sexist fuck to edit and write on technology and the people who have or are building it.   Permalink 11:23 PM – 2 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I guess the NYT didn’t “fact check” historical pictures   Permalink 6:27 AM – 2 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The Shouf mountains this morning: much greener than in 1900. Permalink 4:45 AM – 2 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Statistics is not being fooled by randomness, not reading coffee cups and neo-astrology. If you don’t get it, then you get blocked. Permalink 2:07 PM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I won’t say what it is; the mother of all paleo food in an Armenian-Aleppo rstrnt in Central Phoenicia. Permalink 12:32 PM – 1 Aug 2018

@Ekaitzsaies ANNOUNCEMENT: On the 10th of October we are going to organise a meet-up in Orio (Basque Country) to talk about @nntaleb ´s ideas. Permalink 11:31 AM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb So far in 2018, 6 peer-reviewed papers, 2 with @DrCirillo, 4 as single author.   Permalink 7:58 AM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Menu written in Lebanez Permalink 4:24 AM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb With the archeologist and Phoenicologist Hareth (Aretas) Boustany, who turned out to be the father of twitter friend ⁦@BoustanyMazen⁩ (and son of mega-erudite Fouad Ephrem) Permalink 4:14 AM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) We know that osteocalcin restores muscle endurance. Muscles strength are less investigated. Again fughedabout mechanisms, take phenomenology: @CoachRippetoe reports that only heavy weight bearing exercises you do standing up count. Permalink 1:04 PM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) The bone also regulates memory and mental functions via osteocalcin (Karsenty). SPECULATION: can healthier bones for overweight pple explain the all-cause-mortality effect? POLICY: just follow the phenomenology that healthy pplw have healthy bones and ignore mechanisms? Permalink 12:47 PM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) Antifragile on health of bones: bones are part of the endocrine system, not some engineering structure. You don’t improve your bone with exercise machine. @Mangan150 attributes the fertility crisis to correlative (Om 6), not causative (osteopenia) #Complexity #ICCS2018 Permalink 12:44 PM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Saudi Barbaria controls the monoculture narrative.   Permalink 11:06 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb And avoid the fossil fuel propaganda: the greening does not come from CO2 but rather from irrigation… correlates to GDP. Permalink 8:03 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb So another BEFORE-AFTER, Deir l 2amar 1900-2018 Permalink 6:39 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Took this picture yesterday in Kfar7azir coming from the Med. The hill was completely barren during my childhood. And this is a picture of Deir el 2amar in ~1900 Permalink 6:31 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The problem with low-skilled intellektshuals and journos s.a. @robGmacfarlane and the “brilliant” @ABarnardNYT is that they think they understand technical things & impose fortune cookie thinking on Leb ecology or the Syrian war. BS Vendors   Permalink 6:24 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@SvetlanaBogom13 Flying up high and still in earthly colors. Alexander’s photo from his last winter on this plain@CutTheKnotMath Permalink 5:51 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink Permalink 4:20 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Geoff and Vince have a powerful view of the naturalistic preferences of city dwellers.   Permalink 4:35 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 4) In other words, we have to live with the fact that some languages may not have hierarchical family trees. Permalink 3:28 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 3) Even Greenberg’s broader classification of branches is, scientifically speaking, grossly pulled out of a hat. (We are seeing some laterality uncovered by @Safaitic, which means ignore “dialects” as “branches” for now and focus on something structural). Permalink 3:20 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) @iosif_lazaridis mentioned how older, “just so” taxonomies turned out to not map to the trees made *on the fly* before phylogenetics (sequncng) My bone is tagging Levantine as *branch of*Arabic as proposed by @PhDniX and @lameensouag rather than, the reverse or *laterality* Permalink 3:20 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) The point I stressed is that, unlike genetics that is based on hard science, we should ignore traditional linguistics with its”on the fly” classifications, particularly the horribly sorry state of Semitic linguistics.   Permalink 3:20 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Current Lebanon has been mysteriously internally stable (now for three decades) partly because every single ethnoreligious group is now a minority (Christians, Shiites, Sunnis, etc.) There is neither minority nor majority rule (Tocqueville’s dream). @PZalloua Permalink 2:40 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Defending @elonmusk … but still the waist is thin.   Permalink 8:46 AM – 30 Jul 2018

@DavidBCollum Seems to me that Stephen Hadley, Ratheon director, should be investigated, if appropriate, tried for treason, and, if guilty, hung from the neck until dead…   Permalink 8:21 PM – 29 Jul 2018

@nntaleb On the way.   Permalink 2:08 PM – 29 Jul 2018

@EHSANI22 Do any Roman/Greek Experts in epigraphy know what this says ? @nntaleb Permalink 12:54 PM – 29 Jul 2018

@nntaleb For nitpickers what I call Northern Phoenicia is North of Byblos. Gabish? Permalink 8:16 AM – 29 Jul 2018

@nntaleb On my way to Northern Phoenicia. This is the first plane trip in years without the company of math quizzes by Maestro @CutTheKnotMath Alexander Bogomolny left us three weeks ago. Permalink 7:58 AM – 29 Jul 2018

@J_MaestreVidal As a researcher that usually resort on forecasting solutions, I have drawn countless times on the @spyrosmakrid time series collections. Today I had the opportunity to deal with the M4 dataset. Veredict: they did it again! Brilliant work, as always #MachineLearning #AI #forecast Permalink 7:00 AM – 29 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Just as we coined “pedophrasty” as a term to indicate the use of salient images of children by charlatans to sell their fakes (it suspends criticism), we need a term for the squalid argument “for the poor” to sell such crap as GMOs. Penophrasty? Ptochophrasty? Latin better?   Permalink 4:59 AM – 29 Jul 2018

@foodtechhacker Nature represents approximately NP strong solutions. We don’t get this. We need to accept it. But if we did, we’d have to reject nearly everything that makes up our economy. If you don’t understand NP, read here:   @nntaleb @SeloSlav Permalink 5:25 PM – 28 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Cedar trees may have a problem, but in an ecology some species will always be maladapted in a changing environment and others will thrive. Permalink 10:42 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The NYT article by @ABarnardNYT (characteristically) misrepresents the environmental situation in Lebanon & might discourage the overactive Lebanese evironmentalists. There has been a significant reforestation of the place. (Thread)   Permalink 10:25 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Fat Tailed Random Matrices (TECHNICAL INCERTO, Vol 1)   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:28 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@psi_theta “Wittgenstein’s ruler: Unless you have confidence in the ruler’s reliability, if you use a ruler to measure a table you may also be using the table to measure the ruler.” — @nntaleb An unreliable/dumb source gives more information about itself than the information it forwards. Permalink 4:01 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@CCavafy C.P. Cavafy, “According to the Formulas of Ancient Greco–Syrian Magicians”, translated by @DMendelsohn1960 #poetry #Greece Permalink 3:50 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@nntaleb A point that this ignorant Matti Ilmanen @milmanen didn’t get. Permalink 5:32 PM – 27 Jul 2018

@RonPaul Come see Nassim Nicholas Taleb and many other GREAT speakers at my Institute for Peace and Prosperity’s “Media & War” conference on August 18th in Washington, DC! More info and tickets:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 1:29 PM – 27 Jul 2018

@nntaleb This said, I also insisted on the role of priors in (some) medical decisions to manage false positives/negatives. Permalink 9:48 AM – 27 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Found a Tesla supercharger on Boston-NY near artisanal burger rstrnt (keto-friendly) that serves espresso. Nice break for twitter fights with Bayesianistas. Permalink 9:39 AM – 27 Jul 2018

@cdipaola62 I think Taleb actually said, “F—k Bayes.” Which made a lot more sense to me than some of the equations…glad he was there to interpret for me. Permalink 9:20 AM – 27 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The idea behing “Bayesian” approaches is that if 2 pple have different priors, they will eventually converge to the same estimation, via updating. A “wrong” prior is therefore OK. Under fat tails, if you have the wrong prior, you never get there. (Taleb & Pilpel, 2004) Gabish?   Permalink 9:16 AM – 27 Jul 2018

@kavehdaneshvar Not every day you get so much complexity in one place! @nntaleb #ICCS2018 Permalink 6:41 PM – 26 Jul 2018

@djpardis Risk, fat tails, and precaution workshop at #ICCS2018 “Longevity comes from a volatile heartbeat” —@nntaleb Permalink 6:01 PM – 26 Jul 2018

@nntaleb His gadness ⁦@GadSaad⁩ in the workshop. Permalink 4:13 PM – 26 Jul 2018

@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb: “Alexander the Great makes @realDonaldTrump look like Mother Teresa.” Permalink 1:16 PM – 26 Jul 2018

@trishankkarthik Free advice: the lunch crowd has decided that the next @black_swan_man comic should have incompetent supervillain @R_Thaler who tries to nudge @nntaleb into trouble @normonics Permalink 9:40 AM – 26 Jul 2018

@trishankkarthik Nonlinearity in travel time, like @nntaleb said in Antifragile #ICCS2018 Permalink 8:06 AM – 26 Jul 2018

@HardeepSPuri Also took time out to meet my friend, the famous author of several critically acclaimed bestsellers @nntaleb I have always enjoyed our intellectually stimulating discussions. This one was after a long time & first since I became a Minister. (3/3) Permalink 4:28 AM – 26 Jul 2018

@PZalloua Discussing Levantine genetics, and the spread of the Semitic language with L. Lazaridis, D. Reich and NN Taleb over a Mediterranean meal! @nntaleb @iosif_lazaridis Permalink 7:02 PM – 25 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Almost there…   Permalink 7:35 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@LetsWorkHappy Learning more about fat tails from @nntaleb at #ICCS2018 Permalink 7:12 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@mZargham .@nntaleb — tearing apart ‘scientific’ concepts built based on empirically invalid mathematical assumptions. starting over with more realistic mathematical assumptions to derive new principles. #ICCS2018 justifying my decisions to favor product based dynamic decision policies! Permalink 6:50 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@RhysLindmark 3/1 @nntaleb begins his talk with this overview: “What happens when you look at risk *dynamically* not *statically*?” #ICCS2018 Permalink 6:39 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@DTFinegood .@nntaleb “p values are not scientific”. #ICCS2018 Permalink 6:28 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@nntaleb With @GadSaad @MichaelSagnerMD @normonics @HarryDCrane #ICCS2018 Permalink 6:06 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@EdmondAwad Twitter coming to real life at #ICCS18 @nntaleb @GadSaad @MichaelSagnerMD @normonics @HarryDCrane Permalink 6:05 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@MichaelSagnerMD with the crew @nntaleb @PZalloua @trishankkarthik in Boston Permalink 6:04 PM – 24 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Respect for the firefighters and #PrayForGreece Permalink 7:06 AM – 24 Jul 2018

@Ekaitzsaies Hi @GuruAnaerobic ! Mr @urtatses and I had our first meeting this afternoon to start organizing a meet-up in the Basque Country to talk about @nntaleb ‘s ideas this November. Classroom Barbells First 2 speakers (him & I) Are you joining us? Anyone else? Permalink 11:22 AM – 23 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Friends, for the paperback edition, we are looking for comments on Skin in the Game from people with Skin in the Game (not reviewers), that is actually users. If you have a comment, please give us your first name and city of residence. Thanks! Permalink 9:15 AM – 23 Jul 2018

@nntaleb With @GadSaad and @PZalloua at #ICCS2018 Permalink 7:42 AM – 23 Jul 2018

@MimeticValue #ExistentialRisk #EffectiveAltruism #TemporalEmpathy Permalink 3:22 PM – 22 Jul 2018

TECHNICAL INCERTO, Dawkins, Haass, Friedman, Zakaria, Alexander Bogomolny, GMOs, Ron Paul, Soccer | Twitter

@financequant “I believe that we should read only those books that wound and stab us. If a book we are reading does not rouse us with a blow to the head, then why read it? A book must be the axe for the frozen sea inside us.”–Franz Kafka Permalink 2:43 PM – 20 Jul 2018

@NebojsaMalic You BOMBED Montenegro in 1999 as commander of NATO, you nitwit.   Permalink 10:43 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb This time on ….phenomenology! The cartoonist is good but doesn’t get that weightlifters are NOT thin in the waist.   Permalink 6:57 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 3) Since I am typesetting, we have aesthetic questions. Is the format I use for my own books OK? Or fixing the Maestro’s own original fonts?   Please let me know. Permalink 5:20 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) (Ppple involved: @MarcosCarreira @gcfr20 @mikeandallie @octonion @SvetlanaBogom13 ) My feeling is: we do not need to complete many tutorial appendices since these are standard: pple find them on the web just as they did to solve pblms. (for instance I don’t use one for mine) Permalink 5:19 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) BOGOMOLNY FRIDAY SYMPOSIUM Alex left us 13 days ago. I have the PDF of the @CutTheKnotMath’s book Probability Riddles; working on completing it posthumously. Need comments on these sections (pics).   @republicofmath @ProbFact @octonion @erugli ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:50 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Yarmouk is where the Byzantines lost the battle to the Arabs 13C ago. The new Byzantium has some work to do.   Permalink 8:43 PM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb He came to talk population genetics/probability. I took him to the gym instead and forced him to deadlift. He had never done it before. He is very confused about the visit.   Permalink 3:51 PM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Never ever criticize anyone (say a politician) for doing something that you would be silent about if someone else did it. You would be insulting your audience, insulting truth, insulting the medium you are using, insulting ethics. Permalink 11:38 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb I am not involved…   Permalink 11:03 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Yes the seeds of skin in the game in 2002: never read anything on doing by nondoers.   Permalink 10:10 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb So the TECHNICAL INCERTO is online: VOL1- The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails   VOL2- Convexity, Risk, and Fragility (in progress)   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:01 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Congrats to @BakhtadzeMamuka for becoming Prime Minister of Georgia, and indeed, let Georgia, the root of Europe and the Mediterranean (i.e. Western Eurasia), become part of modern-day Europe via cultural and economic integration.   Permalink 5:47 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb My point is: That highly unrigorous science journalist @RichardDawkins can say “Listen I would like to preserve my culture” without insulting other people’s aesthetics. Permalink 5:35 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Note: This is not for my benefit but a public service warning –since I will never set foot there. (Nor was I financially hurt since I was the guest at a business dinner.) Permalink 7:08 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb I spent my childhood in the Christian neighborhood in Beirut listening to both the bells (older churches than Dawkins’) and the muezzin in the distance. It taught me that tolerance is when you get that: The Other likes the aesthetics of his rituals as much as you do yours.   Permalink 6:54 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Is it against NYC law to refuse to serve tap water? (Some pple have a rule to never drink nonlocal water) Permalink 5:22 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Nusr-Et in NY. Never ever again. They don’t even serve local tap water. Overrrrrrrrrrpriced. Permalink 4:21 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@JeanMessiha En Algérie, des femmes bravent l’obscurantisme avec la modernité du bikini ; en France, des femmes bravent la modernité avec l’obscurantisme du burkini…   Permalink 11:51 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb This is hilarious. Every time someone (of the type to live with their mother at age 52) tells me that “Trump is dumb”…   Permalink 11:39 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@DaxThoughts Nothing makes me (1) feel worse about myself (2) want to learn a ton of information NOW, Than reading @nntaleb’s papers It’s an extremely humbling process. Permalink 4:18 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb And they are still not getting why this “evidence” is pseudoscience.   Permalink 4:12 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The thread explains why most of the papers with “empirical evidence” using “correlations” and “p-values” are BS. Actually, in some fields, almost all papers are BS but you need to look deep into the statistics. The p-value hacking paper:   Permalink 12:03 PM – 17 Jul 2018

@CeddChad Courtesans and Fishcakes opened my eyes to Med culture and how we Northerners are so different. Yours has been the only reference I have ever seen to it. Permalink 11:34 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Journos thrive on wars and tensions (like the press magnate in the Bond movie who fomented wars to sell papers) (Asymmetric payoff: they don’t bear the costs, particularly if harm is in foreign countries) Regular citizens don’t care about geopolitics.   Permalink 11:06 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb And prosperity is best achieved by preventing bureaucrats from interfering with things they will never understand. Permalink 9:50 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb A reminder that the job of the government is to deliver Peace and Prosperity. Permalink 9:42 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@marcus_minus Espèce de charlatan incompétent… je vous invite à lire @nntaleb avant de dire de tels conneries. Et dire que nous avons des cancres comme vs pour parler de transhumanisme, d’OGM et d’investissement d’avenir. #charlatan Permalink 7:00 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Based on the reactions, the definition of a “dictator with divergent values” is someone who does not buy weapons from U.S. based arms manufacturers. Permalink 8:06 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@daniel_bilar Pre-asymptotics & fat tails: Operational & heuristic metrics to compare n-summed independent vars under all distributions w finite first moment by @nntaleb   [“how much data one needs to make meaningful statements”, ‘speed’ of the law of large numbers] ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:39 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@EHSANI22 This is getting ridiculous. What a day. Share values ? I didn’t see you complaining when he sword danced in #Saudi   Permalink 3:59 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb It took 5 volumes to get the main point: “The main thread is that while there is inordinate uncertainty about what is going on, there is great certainty about what one should do about it.” Permalink 1:53 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb One is allowed to reveal the low IQ of these pseudo-experts s.a. @RichardHaass, @tomfriedman or @FareedZakaria is because, while clueless abt complex interactions & basic properties, they feel empowered to lecture others on what to do. They shd driving Ubers not more. Permalink 12:01 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Actually excellent partying as preliminary preparation to the theorezing. Permalink 11:49 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The main problem that plague GMO idiots is that they don’t get that 1) interractions in an environment are not predictable 2) that they NEED to be predicted (no organism is isolated)   Permalink 11:07 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Surprised?   Permalink 10:23 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Promoting the ideas of Jane Jacobs (and her books) on organic urbanism —with Minister @HardeepSPuri in charge of building tens of millions of homes in the next 5 years. Permalink 8:57 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb To have a real “deep state” you need the intelligence of a Professor Moriarty or the craftiness of a Colbert. Not a collection of hand-to-mouth bureaucrats. Gabish? Permalink 7:10 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb One lesson from recent militarism: 1- There may exist ~a “deep state”, but it isn’t organized, rather a spontaneous league of useful idiots 2- The most representative is that *low-IQ BS Vendor*, @RichardHaass, so you can see it’s composed of real losers   Permalink 6:16 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Like Saudi Arabia.   Permalink 5:00 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Friends; now the question is whether to use Roman or “Arabic” (Indian) numerals. Permalink 4:42 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@Jaffer22915438 One last tweet before I do something more useful. Flashback to when right wingnuts called Reagan a “Useful Idiot” for meeting with Soviet Union…today, Democrats assuming posture:   Permalink 4:19 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Needs to be random. Like IRS audits.   Permalink 12:59 PM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) Make sure your income does not depend on your reputation. 2) Find 4-5 perpetrators and hound them for the rest of their life. Particularly 4 years later when they expect it the least. 3) Let others see what you are doing to the few smearers. Example   Permalink 12:53 PM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb In the past, the weapons industry would have right wing warmongers shill for them & perpetuate states of bellicosity. They got smarter. They now enlist shills who managed to label themselves on the “left”. Permalink 12:48 PM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 3) And no, @elonmusk/@Tesla are not fully antifragile: they depends on shareholders, which is the reason smear campaigns are active. They are directed at the shareholders. But they can show evidence of smear campaign (there is) using my Tesla/NonTesla test. Permalink 7:55 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) The principle in Fooled by Randomness is that we react to 1st order; we are manipulated into seeing events separated from statistical context. For instance: my discipline every time I hear Trump did smthing cruel (e.g. children) to check if NonTrump did same. (Obama did). Permalink 7:51 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) Thread: @ElonMusk, victim of a smear campaign. + @Tesla car catches fire. Nobody reports on >150K yearly nonTesla cars fires? + Musk took public $, not great (returned). How about OTHER companies that got pub. $$? + Musk “is a billionaire”. How abt other billionaires?   Permalink 7:46 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb cc:@HardeepSPuri   Permalink 7:15 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@Jimmy_Rosen 6) Diplomats and politicians with no SITG cause more trouble than they solve with things like Israel/Palestine and Syria. Taleb thinks that people with SITG care more about having good food, drink, and weather at their family parties than geopolitics or grand principles: no SITG Permalink 7:01 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@Jimmy_Rosen 1) Recently finished @nntaleb’s Skin in the Game. Like others (@naval) who have had their worldviews shifted by Taleb’s writings on probability, randomness, and society in general, SITG changed how I think about numerous parts of the economy and society. Some takeaways: Permalink 7:01 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 14 problems coming from the misunderstanding of fat tails by professional statisticians/quants/economists etc. Permalink 6:20 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb One of the last pictures of Maestro, birdwatching (courtesy: his niece). Permalink 6:18 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Today was the first saturday in years without a Maestro Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath math riddle. He left us a week ago. Permalink 8:13 PM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Today was the first saturday in years without a Maestro Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath math riddle. He left us a week ago. Permalink 8:13 PM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb SUMMARY OF THE BOOK A statistician: Of course we understand fat tails. The author: No you don’t. Permalink 2:42 PM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF INTERDICTS A passage in The Black Swan about how grandmother elephants have authority… A senator is literally an aged person… Permalink 10:34 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb I have been blocking pple who nitpick aphorisms as if they were literal scientific claims; some call them “gross generalization”; some even complain that there is no backup… Since I’ve been doing it, the quality of my feed/discussions improved considerably. #ViaNegativa   Permalink 10:22 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb So for the nomenclatura, ageism is not bigotry (check w/intellectual fraudster @NickCohen4). Aside from selective bigoteering, they haven’t yet discovered that respect for the elder if shared by practically every civilization (Meds, Semites, Chinese,…) for #LindyEffect   Permalink 7:22 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@SamuelGWalters This problem dedicated to the Memory of our friend Alexander Bogomolny. @CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb @SvetlanaBogom13 #math Permalink 1:03 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb What identity activists & the Stalinist pol police are doing to us is making us see someone as “person from race/gender/orientation (X,Y,Z)” instead of just seeing “Joe”, “Wang”or “Cunégonde”. Nothing short of alienation. #AbstractUniversalism is the arch-enemy of humanism. Permalink 12:43 PM – 13 Jul 2018

@Mehdi_IR_DC It’s so funny to see “progressive” ppl being offended by Trump “disrespecting” the Queen; the very person who believes she is superior than the rest cuz of her blood. Permalink 11:13 AM – 13 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Philology du jour: The “Black” Kazars the “Northern” Kazars? Avoid confusion. For discussion: @peterfrankopan @GhassanDahhan   Permalink 10:14 AM – 13 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Question: Is there a reason I did not lose followers? Is the process still going? Permalink 6:40 AM – 13 Jul 2018

@nntaleb For Christmas, a formal edition of the INCERTO (gold leaf etc.). Now 5 volumes. Now working on the (so far) 2 volumes of the TECHNICAL INCERTO. Permalink 6:11 AM – 12 Jul 2018

@nntaleb While the business of historians is faithful description of the past, @peterfrankopan specializes in faithful descriptions of the future.   Permalink 1:44 PM – 11 Jul 2018

@RonPaul *Special Announcement* Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) To Speak At Ron Paul Institute Conference 2018!! Permalink 11:56 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@SS_strength “My understanding of this concept has improved, thanks to my friend Nassim Nicholas Taleb, so I thought I’d share it with you.”   Permalink 10:32 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Oh my Baal! Chased my Monsanto!   Permalink 10:17 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@black_swan_man Page 5… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #antifragile #gmo #glyphosate #sustainableagriculture #grassfed Permalink 8:53 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@nntaleb It takes five years to learn how to make money; and twenty-five to learn how to not lose it. Permalink 5:45 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@mikeandallie (2/4) It is memorable not just for being a good problem but also for illustrating the amazing interaction between Bogomolny and Nassim Taleb. Taleb’s approach always got to the heart of the puzzle quickly and showed me how to share seemingly very advanced problems with kids. Permalink 4:37 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@ClintEhrlich 1st time one reads @nntaleb: Geez, this guy is a dick. So f-ing arrogant! 2nd time: Ok, he’s right. But why does he have to be so rude about it? 3rd time: Taleb is a true gentleman. He makes all the right enemies.   Permalink 5:22 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Something abt Maestro Bogomolny’s @CutTheKnotMath mathematical purity I can now reveal. He had a hearing pblm (0% in ear, ~ in oth.) not remediable using aids. He left academia as he couldn’t communicate. He did math for math, not as a career. He wanted his site to make no $. Permalink 3:22 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@Steveonomics My favorite LinkedIn comment regarding @SouthwestAir banning peanuts. @nntaleb Permalink 2:31 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Whole Book in PRogress   Permalink 2:22 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb LIMIT DISTRIBUTIONS, a Tutorial (Chapter in the Technical INCERTO) Permalink 2:15 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@TheLikevillePod @nntaleb talks with the @TheLikevillePod about why scale matters, why localism is better than globalism, why journalists get on his nerves, how intellectual-yet-idiots get us into trouble, and much else.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:51 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Excellent response. Doers and Risk Takers >>>Tawkers. Period. #SkinintheGame   Permalink 10:46 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb In Russian, competitor is конкурент (as in French “concurrent”, Italian “concorrente” cc: @mathieuhelie ), a co-runner. There is no implication of antagonism. You need a “concurrent” because you do not engage in a race against yourself. Permalink 8:25 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@anandk_00 1st time one reads Taleb: it sounds true. 2nd time: one starts being aware of the concepts in operation in ones life, and in general, the world. 3rd time: one wonders how did he/she not get the beauty in the 1st reading itself. Permalink 7:43 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb AN ENEMY is someone in a zero-sum game, the representation bureaucrats, geopoliticians, journos & low-IQ pol “scientists” have of the world. A COMPETITOR is someone who helps the system stay non-zero sum & prevents monopolies.   Permalink 6:44 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@ThomasSowell “There is much discussion of the haves and the have-nots, but very little discussion of the doers and the do-nots, those who contribute and those who merely take.” Permalink 5:59 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@SamuelGWalters @CutTheKnotMath Alexander, I know that you are up there in heaven and I hear there is a wifi connection set up there. So you should be able to tweet your #Math problems to us. We’re getting desperate down here. @nntaleb Permalink 4:13 PM – 9 Jul 2018

@diomavro I can honestly say I’ve learned more about probability and recursion from Alexander than the accumulation of all my university classes.   Permalink 5:45 AM – 9 Jul 2018

@GWeynerowski @Likeville hits it out of the park again. This is another fascinating, entertaining conversation led by @john_f_hamer that will make you see the world anew. And as for you, @nntaleb, quit blowing my mind!   Permalink 4:55 PM – 8 Jul 2018

@nntaleb If someone wants a ride w/me, pls mention. I am leaving from Westchester. Permalink 2:18 PM – 8 Jul 2018

@nntaleb From the family: All meet at Floral Park Cemetery at 10:00 a.m. tomorrow 7/9/2018, 104 Deans Rhode Hall Road, Monmouth Junction, NJ 08852. Tel 732-297-2336. Then ” everyone is welcome in our house afterwards […], East Brunswick, NJ” Permalink 2:15 PM – 8 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 6) The Anachronistic Fallacy, 2 You cannot flow today’s rules of morality backward in time & judge people THEN based on rules developed later. Morality comes from customs (mores). No law should be retroactive, something the bigoteers don’t get. Permalink 9:56 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Had the fellow applied this formidable cunning & astuteness to business he would have been montrously successful.   Permalink 8:51 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Soccer is fundamentally a high variance game.   Permalink 7:36 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 5) THE ANACHRONISTIC FALLACY Injustice was done in the past with invasions, etc. But justice cannot operate without STATUTES of LIMITATIONS: we can’t invoke the Pilgrims, w/o going back to Bronze Age migrations. Arguments abt who did what >100 y ago are necessarily invalid. Permalink 5:32 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 4) Immigration requires sacrifice and skin in the game. Permalink 5:15 AM – 2 Jul 2018

Pedophrasty, Bigoteering, and Other Modern Scams | Medium


Definition: Argument involving children to prop up a rationalization and make the opponent look like an asshole, as people are defenseless and suspend all skepticism in front of suffering children: nobody has the heart to question the authenticity or source of the reporting. Often done with the aid of pictures.

Pedophrasty, Bigoteering, and Other Modern Scams

Ergodicity, Immigration, Nudgers, Monsanto, Gold, Blue, Pedophrasty, Pinker, Harris | Twitter

@nntaleb Ergodicity part 2!   Permalink 2:12 PM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb He got ergodicity.   Permalink 2:08 PM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Of course.   Permalink 12:31 PM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 3) As a Christian Lebanese, saw the nightmare of uncontrolled immigration of Palestinians which caused the the civil war. & as a part-time resident of N. Lebanon, I am seeing the effect of Syrian migration on the place. So I despise these virtue-signaling open-borders imbeciles. Permalink 6:47 AM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The discussion is not about the invention of calculus, but about Leibnitz, the last of the real polymaths (although he didn’t lift weights), and how mathematics is something that one can pick-up later in life. Gabish? Permalink 5:48 AM – 1 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) OK, OK, my Indian friends. Rediscovered calculus. Works now? Permalink 7:33 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Leibniz was a legal philosopher who at the age of 26 decided to learn math, then (co)invented calculus.   Permalink 7:26 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) Controlled immigration is based on the symmetry that someone brings in at least as much as he/she gets out. And the ethics of the immigrant is to defend the system as payback, not mess it up. Uncontrolled immigration has all the attributes of invasions. Permalink 7:22 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@normonics It’s not just pol sci people. The idea that the scale of a system is relevant to its behavior is OBVIOUS; yet almost never accounted for.   Permalink 3:10 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb What intellectuals don’t get about MIGRATION is the ethical notion of SYMMETRY: OPEN BORDERS work if and only if the number of pple who want to go from EU/US to Africa/LatinAmer equals Africans/Latin Amer who want to move to EU/US Silver Rule in #SkinInTheGame Gabish? Permalink 2:05 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@Jeff_Fine Questions? Permalink 1:03 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb For real people, if something works in theory, but not in practice, it doesn’t work. For academics, if something works in practice, but not in theory, it doesn’t exist. Permalink 12:59 PM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) This illusion that one can work with abstract ideas WITHOUT embedding them is the reason “intellectuals” don’t get skin in the game. (thread w @ClaireBerlinski ) Permalink 9:44 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is some type of common reasoning defect shared by people in political “science”: they don’t get scaling “Democracy” is not scalable. They don’t understand my insults: it’s not about ideas but in what environments ideas can be practically executed #ComplexSystems   Permalink 9:42 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@Baloo1987 An article written by a toxicologist working for #Monsanto is then handed to regulators who then simply copy-pasted it into the EU regulatory review. The definition a revolving door. Unbelievable! #CIJsummer #MonsantoPapers Permalink 6:02 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Dorin Marghidanu’s Functional Equation   #FigureThat #math #algebra ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:43 AM – 30 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Hope @freakonometrics can comment, as a follow-up to our debate with @DrCirillo as to whether statisticians have considered such consequence of fattailedness. All comments, whether positive or negative, are welcome.   Permalink 2:53 PM – 29 Jun 2018

@GreenPlusAnE Congress set up non-profits to raise $ for @NIH & @CDCGov. They illegally hid info about their corporate donors. Meanwhile, US health experienced its worst decline in a century. Now they’re lying about it. Time for #skininthegame.   cc: @nntaleb Permalink 2:41 PM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Fraud Alert: QUORA ask Statisticians what they think of my work and get Unethical Mandari Narayan @neurostats to comment on anecdotes from Incerto, WITHOUT considering technical work. The fraud by Mandari Narayan sits for 3 y on the web. Comment on this!   Permalink 2:07 PM – 29 Jun 2018

@spyrosmakrid The initial results of the M4 Competition can be found/downloaded in   The ranking of the first half of methods can be seen below ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:46 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I’ve never been more excited to attend a conference! @NECSI’s #ICCS2018   Permalink 7:32 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The other counterintuitive aspect is that EVEN if Country X won EVERY past game, injecting a tiny bit of randomness into the system can make its probability of winning drop below, say, 10%. A tiny bit of randomness percolates quickly across the branches of the tree. Permalink 6:44 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is a set of probabilities that can give Germany 25% of winning without 100% probability of being in the semi-finals: that CONDITIONAL on making the semi-finals probability increases. However, the opposite holds: the higher up, the MORE 1/n. Gabish? Permalink 6:24 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Et cela continue   Permalink 6:21 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Very similar to elections. Under high variance, you go closer to 1/n probability per team, where n is the number of teams, with minor variations (except for the very bad teams such as Saudi Barbaria). The more uncertainty, the more distributed the bets.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:57 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Giving Germany a 25% chance of winning is a very arrogant statement, it is equivalent to giving Germany ~100% chance of making it to the semi-final. Don’t listen to bank research pple with no #SkinintheGame who talk about probability. Permalink 5:07 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Discovered something: negative kurtosis and negative kappa. Some distributions are thinner-tailed than the Gaussian (needs to be bimodal) Permalink 4:56 AM – 29 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Friends, thanks to the crowd-corrections @spyrosmakrid gave me a stay of execution. I got an extension. Permalink 5:13 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Les françaises et français commencent a aimer mon livre “Jouer sa peau”. Ils en ont marre de leur fonctionnaires. Permalink 4:47 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) Naturally it debunks some of the “nudgers” s.a. @r_thaler showing they don’t understand fat tails & probability. Permalink 4:00 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Friends, I was told in no uncertain terms by the editors & @spyrosmakrid that I get severely punished if I don’t meet the deadline for this paper (today). Please help find errors.   (cont) ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:59 AM – 28 Jun 2018

@StoolPoop I like that @nntaleb isnt left or right but rather local over global. I imagine he respects the harassing of pols in public. “Keep them close enough to kick them” Permalink 1:10 PM – 27 Jun 2018

@nntaleb If employees of UBS knew how to run simulations, they wouldn’t be employees of UBS, but customers of the Private Banking group of UBS. How can’t people think in 1 ½ order effects?   Permalink 9:44 AM – 27 Jun 2018

@Mangan150 The idea to eat a plant-based diet is based on 2 mistakes. 1. Blaming meat for what ultra-processed foods did. 2. Blaming cholesterol for what insulin resistance did. Permalink 9:31 AM – 27 Jun 2018

@nntaleb To prove to Spyros I am really working on it, here is the paper in progress. Friends can help with typos.   Permalink 8:06 AM – 27 Jun 2018

@nntaleb This is meta-Skin in the Game   Permalink 3:24 PM – 26 Jun 2018

@LucasVitorinoS3 ‘Homens fracos agem para satisfazer suas necessidades, homens fortes agem para cumprir seus deveres’ – @nntaleb Permalink 10:58 AM – 26 Jun 2018

@normonics If you’re concerned about what we’re doing to the climate by exposing it to a large amount of a non-novel agent You should be MUCH MORE concerned about GMO agr, as we are exposing ecosystems globally to massive amount of novel agents — including living ones that can replicate! Permalink 9:31 AM – 26 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Essay: Monsanto’s ghostwriting and strong-arming threaten sound science—and society   Permalink 5:43 AM – 26 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The heuristic is, simply, production of a commodity / volatility, signal/noise and you can see how much additional discovery/supply matters. Permalink 7:01 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I can understand that @JustinWolfers is just another academic living on charity; but surprised to discover that @neelkashkari is head of a Fed and doesn’t realize that existing gold stock is monstrous in relation to production. Who put him there? Permalink 5:26 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Quant Finance researchers meet Medicine Quants today: Permalink 3:36 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Antigragility: my lecktchur in 2 hours   Permalink 12:52 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb These idiots have never traded gold and seen forward contracts sold by producers. Permalink 12:46 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb In fact unlike with money supply, gold miners are distributed and in competition. Permalink 12:29 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb These 2 clueeeeeeeeless economists have no idea that the competitive mahket values gold in the ground as an asset with optionality. I mean clueeeeless. @JustinWolfers is particularly ignorant of everything.   Permalink 12:19 PM – 25 Jun 2018

@d_a_n Some things don’t scale. Consider how you react to a car blocking the road. Small community – I get out, say hi, ask if help is needed, chat happily for 30 mins City – I hoot, swear, call the cops, maybe resort to road rage (thanks to @nntaleb for the insight) Permalink 9:30 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb As I said the English “commoners” accept their GENETIC inferiority to the aristocracy but these hypocrites go on talking about political correctness with other commoners. Disgusting.   Permalink 9:26 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Background and solution Permalink 7:38 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@catoletters Robert Mueller was the biggest obstacle for Sept. 11 families who wanted to sue Saudi Arabia   Permalink 6:20 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Obama destroyed Syrian Christianity, something 1300 years of Arab rule didn’t do; Remember Christianity was born there, the NT was in the Greek of Antioch.   Permalink 6:16 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Mini-Lecture (5 min) today at BBQ (Bloomberg Quant Seminar) in Honor of Rabbi “Tony” Glickman, 1950-2018. “Life is Long Gamma” @DaliaGlickman Permalink 5:43 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb BTW to understand what is called “GMO”, see this   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 4:10 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A Canadian brewer, @SteamWhistle is being harrassed by shills for listing “GMO free” on its beer. Turned out it is illegal in Canada to say “GMO free” (without some disclaimer): who wrote that law?   Permalink 3:44 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@jj_mllr New Blogpost: How two tweets about a simple coin toss experiment by @drob and @nntaleb can cause an academic existential crisis: Coin Tosses, Markov Chains, and an Existential Crisis.   Permalink 2:40 AM – 25 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Finally, after 6 ½ years, someone found a mistake in Antifragile. Will correct ASAP. The ancients had a color for blue. All references on that are wrong.   Permalink 3:13 PM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Prove that limit Gamma[n,n]/Gamma[n]=½ as n->infinity Permalink 2:36 PM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Accidentally stumbling on a helpful identity on a Sunday morning… Permalink 9:48 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Big Ag using financially insecure journos/”sci communicators” to sell: GMO/Glyphosate = science HENCE technosalvation (pedophrasty: only they can help “starving children” ) Anecdote = “evidence based” Bezos got that better food distribution >>technoBS   Permalink 5:47 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@NicuMihalache #skininthegame, the book by @nntaleb starts gently and rather predictably for those familiar with the Incerto series (and his Medium articles  ) then it takes you for a series of spins so that you want to tweet every other paragraph Permalink 5:34 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb MONSANTO Charlatan Watch: ask BS vendor @mark_lynas to produce systematic safety studies. Also ask him why he is in favor of both GMOs and Glyphosate (except that GMOs are an excuse to >3x pesticides & fry your soil). Charlatan!   via @WSJ Permalink 4:54 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@HypPioneer @nntaleb weighs in scam artists exploiting children to get what they want politically (open borders, war, etc.):   Permalink 4:35 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Ralph Nader Asks Former First Ladies: Why No “Heartfelt Concern for Tens of Thousands of Children Killed or Seriously Maimed” by Their Husbands’ Wars? –   via @commondreams Permalink 3:18 AM – 24 Jun 2018

@nntaleb All East Med citizens are nervously waiting for the selection of the new Byzantine Emperor. Permalink 3:42 PM – 23 Jun 2018

@thomas_quinlan Today’s word of the day: pedophrasty — the use of pictures of suffering children to advance an agenda.   This story via @zerohedge but term coined by the brilliant @nntaleb, here:   Permalink 3:31 PM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Let me dispell some mistakes. Do not conflate farniente with laziness. In the Med, idleness is never a virtue unless the person gets rich or does great things while exercizing it. That’s the difference with other cultures both further North and further South. Gabish? Permalink 12:06 PM – 23 Jun 2018

@ErwanLeCorre Ethically-evolved sports will avoid micro-agressions, turn sports fields into safe spaces. Next progress: kill the social-construct which is “competency.” The ultimate step: competition is elitist and inherently discriminatory. No more losers: EVERYONE WINS. Permalink 11:57 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Visually. We can also count the triangles Permalink 10:15 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@_benoux_ Exactly! I also like the clear distinction of @nntaleb on Sophrosyne (σωφροσύνη) vs. Rationality based on “graphs”, “facts” and “evidence”, all based on current state. Current state – one day – will collapse. It’s hybris to act on the presumption of immortality. Permalink 10:04 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb You can easily tell a Northener: he/she feels guilty doing nothing. Even doing nothing for them is programmed, labeled, and has to be learned using some Yoga instructor. Permalink 5:54 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Laura, but Naples for me is not monuments for tourists, but 1) narrow streets with laudry hanging from the window, 2) a f*** you attitude that permeates the place, 3) A (tiny) remaining Greek-Orthodox minority… Permalink 5:49 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Sorry, fughotaboud Genova, better choice than Venice. You need to find a place WITHOUT Goethe-inspired visiting Northerners who don’t know what sitting at a terrace doing absolutely nothing means. These include de-Mediterranized Northern Italians. Permalink 4:01 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@nntaleb It always depends on the terrace. And I prefer Naples or Palermo.   Permalink 3:50 AM – 23 Jun 2018

@GuyMorant Attention manipulation. Le génial essayiste Nassim Taleb partage un cas troublant d’utilisation d’une photo d’enfant pour court-circuiter la réflexion. “Pédophrastie”, retenez ce terme.   Permalink 10:54 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Remember that just as surgeons don’t look like surgeons strong men don’t look like athletes in ancient Greek sculptures. Permalink 2:44 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Which is why it was necessary to coin the term “pedophrasty”.   Permalink 1:45 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb   Permalink 1:17 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb It continues… Mistake: he didn’t realize that people who really lift weights (instead of using machines) don’t have a thin waist. (cont)   Permalink 1:16 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #FF @CutTheKnotMath (Maestro Alex. Bogomolny) w/ whom just spent 3 h talking about Russian & NonRussian probability. Permalink 12:37 PM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Never speak ill of the dead. But one can stay silent about him if he CAUSED deaths. If he advocated the Iraq War/WMD nonsense, then without REPENTANCE, another regime change/war, one must stay silent. For extreme cases: damnatio memoriae יִמַּח שְׁמוֹ וְזִכְרוֹ Permalink 8:51 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) People here aren’t getting the aberration: +Book written in US; author in US; publisher in US; readers (of US edition) in US. +Printed in China <=> Chinese censorship. +Publishers & Authors find this NORMAL. This is one side of Globalism Globalists need to explain. Gabish? Permalink 8:32 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Note that my problem with Chinese printers was resolved amicably (they accepted) but I am SHOCKED that no other author had the guts to stand up to the weirdness Chinese censorship of a US book by a US author.   Permalink 6:34 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb If BS Vendor Pinker’s @sapinker’s book was a scientific paper, it would have been retracted. Pinker has not answered question w/@DrCirillo : Why is he making Richardson say something OPPOSITE to what he said? All his “evidence” reposes on that. Permalink 5:31 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@Zilvera1 Brilliant van @nntaleb over salafisme.The bureaucrats and representatives of the“elites” (Van Aartsen) are fooled by the label. They treat Salafism as just a religion –with its houses of “worship” — when in fact it is just an intolerant political system.   Permalink 5:10 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@market_fox An example of why “doctors should not look like doctors” @nntaleb   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:13 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@nntaleb To summarize thread above, rationality is not about “beliefs” but actions, #SkinInTheGame. It is not scientific to evaluate raw “beliefs”. Gabish? Permalink 2:51 AM – 22 Jun 2018

@z3nblack Sometimes I find @nntaleb is standing against an army on his own. Then again, I realize these battles are not fought with guns or swords. One can project the power (& refinement) of their mind against the many, & the numbers *against* don’t matter. Interesting times to be alive.   Permalink 2:39 PM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The other problem with Charlatan @SamHarrisOrg is that he talks about “rationality” without even remotely knowing what it means. Charlatan.   Permalink 11:56 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@TMFStoffel This excerpt from @JohnCarreyrou’s Bad Blood shows Elizabeth Holmes carrying out a version of @nntaleb’s *Pedophastry* Dubious claims of a heinous act that are a smokescreen and weaken claims of real victims   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:05 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Christianity is not *only* 2000 y old. It is a mutation of >4K y of Mediterranean-Anatolian creeds, mysteries, and mythologies. And its structure dates from the early Roman republic. Atheism has no #Lindy to build on, continue and progress from.   Permalink 5:43 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@ggreenwald Is there any benefit or value at all in inquiring why these sorts of abuses generated so little attention and anger pre-2017, or should we just go ahead and ignore that question? See also:   Permalink 5:19 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Harris @SamHarrisOrg: style & content of the charlatan. 1 Arguments entirely strawman; engages in mocking for effect. 2 Imposture “neuroscientist” when he is just a journalist/writer: would a university/lab hire him as junior faculty in *neuroscience*?   Permalink 4:45 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Haha!   Permalink 3:38 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb For those who don’t get that Christianity is about church!= state   Permalink 3:24 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Arabism and the bigoteering by Arabists.   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 3:13 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) Religious statements are not epistemic (scientific, literal) claims, but risk-survival heuristics under incomplete understanding. Populations with the right risk heuristics survive. Others perish. 2) Christianity has a built-in separation church/state. #SkinintheGame   Permalink 3:10 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I just published “Pedophrasty, Bigoteering, and Other Modern Scams”   Permalink 1:45 AM – 21 Jun 2018

@rbarilla Maybe you still don’t “get” it. Without a proper vocabulary to describe unethical behavior, people cannot easily call out charlatans who exhibit such behavior. Given all of Taleb’s work, charlatans can now more easily be called out, including ourselves. Permalink 11:18 PM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I just published “Pedophrasty, Bigoteering, and Other Modern Scams”   Permalink 12:26 PM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Here is the text by Peter Henry Fonda   Permalink 9:23 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Remember the principle that we shd ignore actors’ own words, only listen to them when they mindlessly recite words written by pple with higher capacities of reasoning, when they impersonate much worthier humans. For the Romans, actors were the lowest form of human life.   Permalink 8:36 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@spyrosmakrid The paper with the initial results of the M4 Competition (with a small typo) can be found in the link   It can be also found in Science Direct shortly in the link   Good reading and apologies for the short delay. @robjhyndman Permalink 7:25 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A false accusation of rape has the side effect of inducing skepticism, causing genuine accusations to be taken less seriously. You are also harming the true victims. Permalink 7:16 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #SkinintheGame Permalink 7:07 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A light sentence is not sufficient. Under Hammurabi’s code, someone making a false accusation should bear the same penalty as if he were the perpetrator.   via @nypost Permalink 7:03 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Research by salaried laborers is becoming a rent-seeking citation ring consisting of large scale imitative rituals, with a decreasing number of results, an increasing cluelessness of participants, and a multiplication of useless rules. Permalink 5:45 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The antifragility from fragility equation!   Permalink 5:43 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@rma_adler @nntaleb Fantastic book, now my favorite gym shirt (self-designed). Best… Permalink 5:19 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@ektrit Factual persecution of Christians now enshrined in Canadian Law.   Permalink 4:17 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Andrew Gelman discussing the replication crisis: “There are 1 million scientific publications per year. Do we have one million scientific discoveries per year?” Permalink 3:57 AM – 20 Jun 2018

@nntaleb My new policy is to respond to 10% of offenses, but hit > 10x harder. Better than responding to half the offenses, but hitting the victim twice harder. Exception is when I want to kill time in airports.   Permalink 1:29 PM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb With the statistical vigilante, the great Andrew Gelman and Joshua Miller @jben0 Permalink 12:54 PM – 19 Jun 2018

@sahouraxo The war criminal who oversaw the deaths of 500,000 Iraqi children, separating them from their families forever, now wants us to believe that he suddenly cares about children.   Permalink 11:06 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Work with @spyrosmakrid on weather/climate   Permalink 5:37 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Excellent news! Now if someone labels you as “Islamophobe” for opposing Salafinazism, you can sue. But try to squeeze more, a lot more out of them.   Permalink 4:10 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@drjohnm @EJSMD has called the #COI of clinicians being employed one of the greatest COIs. < As @nntaleb wrote about, if you want to own someone, employ them. Recently heard in the doctor’s lounge: “Shh. they are listening.” Said in jest but…   Permalink 3:51 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb This idiot @matt_blackwell is a pol “scientist” doing “statistics” & didn’t get that news isn’t spreading because a minor actress is complaining abt her car being burned, but because @Tesla. Would the news spread if it were one of the other 180K? #IYI   Permalink 3:43 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) There is this myth of “long run” data is thin tailed because of aggregation and “Central Limit”. A lot of BS. Just like “democracy”, “populism”, “racism”,”enlightenment”, the term “Central Limit” is uttered by parrots clueless of what they are talking about. Permalink 3:14 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) There are tests to see how Central Limit works: Summing data (say weekly returns) should produce thinner tails. Not the case. Permalink 3:07 AM – 19 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Nice example of #SkinInTheGame   Permalink 3:10 PM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Page 2, luckily there is no picture of me this time.   Permalink 11:29 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Thanks Shant. I am tired of people who come to my twitter account, dedicated to BS busting, expecting to hear some feel-good motivational sh*t. Permalink 7:46 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Milke Lawler @mikeandallie has done a grrrrrrrreat job explaining the Central Limit BS to his children. Preasymtotic behavior is CENTRAL.   Permalink 6:30 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb This is the kind of JUNK that has destroyed firms, social science/economics. CLT works at various speeds under fat tailed distributions.   cc:@spyrosmakrid   Permalink 6:24 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) The Markov chain: the expectation is 4 periods for one, 6 for the other. It is ONLY counterintuitive then you are trained/selected to think in Static terms. Permalink 4:17 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) This is a counterintuive property, an illustration of why you need to use DYNAMIC thinking into things that are dynamic, not STATIC. (cont)   Permalink 4:10 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There are 2 types of pple: Those who think in STATICS, those who think in DYNAMICS. Problem w/”intellectuals” & other idiots like @R_Thaler and @CassSunstein who become policymakers is that they can’t think in 2nd steps. Schools mismeasure intelligence w/low dimensional tests. Permalink 3:31 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@nntaleb As a general rule: the more you institutionalize rules of ethical behavior that should be voluntary (say anti-racism, anti-sexism), the more they will be used as a cover for unethical actions. Moral: remove all diversity rules for the sake of diversity.   Permalink 2:33 AM – 18 Jun 2018

@AllonMessenberg My father always said: “If you go to work every day, you have no time to make money!” Permalink 11:18 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@MisterNuance Zakaria is a textbook example of what @nntaleb warns about: a fake “expert” who pays no price for being wrong.   Permalink 11:09 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There are 150K-200K car fires per annum. You take one event & an emotional statement of an actress & turn it into a statement about the safety of @Tesla. And this is 2018. I am blocking any commentator who doesn’t get it. In this and other similar situations. Finito. Permalink 8:08 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@CutTheKnotMath … a counterintuitive property of coin-tossing: If Alice tosses a coin until she sees a head followed by a tail, and Bob tosses a coin until he sees two heads in a row, then on average, Alice will require four tosses while Bob will require six tosses …   Permalink 5:35 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Proper approach: count the rate of these things for @Tesla, compare to other auto-makers, & adjust by other safety statistics. I can’t believe that 18 years after Fooled by Randomness this type of bulls**t is still rampant. Another rule: Never listen to actors except on acting.   Permalink 3:56 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2-a) Every time I return from the W. Med it hits me there is *something* intense & sophisticated that’s different in the E. Med (i.e.,+Armenia/Georgia), reported since Byzantium. Turned out: The SILK ROAD & that Persian thingy Convinced @PZalloua to read @peterfrankopan’s book. Permalink 2:46 AM – 17 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is no argument in favor of pedophrasty that is not pedophrastic. (Circularity).   Permalink 8:33 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) One only criterion for (material) success: not having a schedule. Permalink 12:44 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Barbara @chicaderock, please read books BY Seneca, who was the real thing (a doer), not something ON Seneca by some library rat with a modern perspective. They will miss something essential.   Permalink 12:05 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Moronic @hardsci, just 1 and we know which one it is.   Permalink 12:00 PM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A reminder that any argument (such as the one now used for illegal immigration) that is supported by pictures/narratives of children is called PEDOPHRASTY. Actually, use of children should weaken an argument. Permalink 6:48 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Corrected mistakes Permalink 4:13 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) The carpenter fallacy: do you hire a carpenter to understand the odds of a sequence at the roulette table? Or a probabilist? Moral: the more advanced a nondeterministic science the more it becomes the domain of the applied probabilist. Genetics is a probabilty problem. Permalink 2:16 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) The geneticist Pierre Zalloua visiting me in Northern Phoenicia, with Mount Lebanon in the background. THREAD: on the carpenter fallacy in genetics to follow. Permalink 2:08 AM – 16 Jun 2018

@ThePradosh When you are halfway through #JackDaniels & start to read work by @nntaleb, you realize what #Millennials are truly are. #bedofprocrustes Permalink 11:21 PM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Convexity in Medicine: How Pharma cheats with the “evidence” (aside from P-hacking) cc:@MichaelSagnerMD Permalink 11:21 PM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Just a reminder that Noah Smith @Noahpinion is a a pure BS Vendor before you read him on anything related to anything (s.a. Theranos & Skin in the Game). Gabish?   Permalink 10:00 PM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The best surprise: a brand new gym in a converted mansion that belonged to a cousin of mine… Permalink 10:18 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2/2 There are high demands to perform, indeed!   Permalink 6:16 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb OK, OK. I found a local gym with barbells & a squat rack. Rushing there.   Permalink 6:14 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb We should de-anonymizing the “peer-review” process: referees can be harmfully stupid or vicious w/o accountability. This idiot tried to reject paper w/@DrCirillo because he couldn’t translate that 4 page 8½ by 11 compressed 1-spaced =12 pages double-sp 6½ by 9. #SkinintheGame Permalink 4:26 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Further, the same applies to “arm” and “hand”. Permalink 2:37 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The plot thickens: In Greek leg and foot are also πόδι, In Farsi both پا, but there is a more marked difference in Romance languages (gamba/piede) although pes in Latin can mean both. Permalink 2:31 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Semitic Philology du Jour: Like Phoenician, Aramaic, & Hebrew, the Lebanese lang. still uses the same word (ijr, rgl) for foot and leg in spite of 170 years of (failed) Arabization (foot in Arabic is قدم).   Permalink 12:48 AM – 15 Jun 2018

@oneraindrop A complex system has failed to act as expected by its designers, but has instead exhibites behavior that no one expected it to exhibit Permalink 7:17 PM – 14 Jun 2018

@thyagjs An important point from the SITG book by @nntaleb For those who do things, it is harder to talk about what they do. Reality doesn’t care about tawk. It is full of pauses and hesitations. Clear, non-hesitant speech is the domain of non-doers. Permalink 6:36 PM – 14 Jun 2018

@Mangan150 Here’s the most famous nutritionist in America, Walter Willett of Harvard, defending the use of seed oils, saying that new data that says they’re unhealthy isn’t relevant. Good example of why I no longer listen to these people.   Permalink 5:56 PM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb On the main difference between East Med and West Med (except for Provence) called here “milk of lions”. Permalink 9:35 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) You cannot separate the Med diet from frequency. 1-FASTING Greeks were vegan 210 days. 2-Meat was eaten at festivals, in Yuge quantities, mostly FAT 3-Breakfast is a recent invention 4-“Dinner”=mostly mezze 5-Byphasic sleep 6-Hill/stairs climbing all the time 7-No seed oil Permalink 8:56 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 1) Main lesson from the retraction (NEJM paper on Med diet): + Medicine is mostly (nonstandard) statistics + Medicine is abt convex dose-response NO expertise in biology/medicine will make up for it. PS- My paper on frequency/convexity in medicine was accepted. #Antifragile   Permalink 8:29 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb In Northern Phoenicia for the Weekend. Permalink 8:22 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Actually, the real story is that @KarlreMarks was caught plagiarizing, then reacted exactly like a real plagiarist: he followed the maximally dishonorable route, digging then digging more. Permalink 2:53 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A new argument   Permalink 2:23 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Try to be predictable to your friends and unpredictable to your enemies, rather than the opposite. Permalink 1:41 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Here it is   Permalink 12:02 AM – 14 Jun 2018

@sergioschloros This expression is recorded by in Homer “The proper meaning of ἀνανεύειν is to express dissent or refusal by throwing back the head, opposed to “κατανεύειν”, the corresponding gesture of assent or permission by nodding and bowing the head”   Permalink 10:36 PM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb “τσου” as the Mediterranean “no”: A sound like “ts” (sucked lip) , coupled with a single nod, meaning “NO” (& a certain familiarity with the interlocutor). J2 Haplogroup countries: Phoenicia, Malta, Greece, Cyprus, Turkey, Sicily, Calabria, Western Syria. Any other? Permalink 10:30 PM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I thought I was the only one to call low IQ tawkers low IQ tawkers.   Permalink 8:19 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@financequant Wow! Opioids turned out to be addictive. Something we thought known for millennia but was, in fact, cleverly hidden by Big Pharma, probably in collusion with the FDA.   Permalink 7:59 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@primalpoly This @Harvard president’s email to alumni defends discrimination against Asian applicants, in the name of promoting ‘diversity’. How will this read in 20 years?   Permalink 6:08 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Actually, “no” in Maltese, Sicilian, Lebanese, and various other Med languages is “tsk” Permalink 3:18 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Only in Sicily. The same hotel is famous both for housing R. Wagner when he finished Parsifal and for hosting a decisive mafia convention — in addition to being a preferred spot for various improvised and less improvised “meetings”. Permalink 12:55 AM – 13 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #LindyEffect   Permalink 2:07 PM – 12 Jun 2018

@nntaleb L3ayno zghiré ma bi kabbér, L3ayno kbiré ma bi zaghgher. Permalink 2:00 PM – 12 Jun 2018

@nntaleb L zghir ma bi kabbérak w l kbir ma bi zaghghrak. Permalink 11:15 AM – 12 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Taxi driver to Malta’s airport: Where are you flying to? Me: Palermo. Driver: vacation? Me: No. Meeting. Silence the rest of the journey. Permalink 1:49 PM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Interesting. Because it is true.   Permalink 12:21 PM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Returnless Risk? Permalink 8:28 AM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 6) To understand the Romans, essential Meds, who shunned doing things themselves but praised builders: “Caesar pontem fecit” means Ceasar *had a bridge built* (by others), not “built a bridge” as usually translated. Tr. into French would be “a fait bâtir un pont” not “a bâti”. Permalink 12:45 AM – 11 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Strange absence of Arabian genes (Nabatean, North & South), though possible flow from Maghrebis. Some Phoenician/Anatolian/Greek. Will increase sample & look at more sophisticated maps but still. Permalink 2:47 PM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The main difference is gh is pronounced 3, h with a bar=7, q = 2, x=sh … My only mistery: how did barra/juwwa get to them from Aramaic? Unless @safaitic is right and the Arabs who took the Maghreb spoke a branch of safaitic Permalink 1:08 PM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb He seems to be playing the agency problem of bureaucrats. People w/#SkinInTheGame are more interested in their fridge than remote (or even less remote) geopolitics & willing to settle w/peace as the default preference. Governments & bureaucrats have exact opposite preferences.   Permalink 6:44 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@JSuchJ “True success is exiting some rat race to modulate one’s activities for peace of mind.” Great life insight from @nntaleb foreword to Ed Thorp’s A Man for All Markets Permalink 4:10 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Amos Tversky, the research partner of Kahneman, remarked that he “merely studied in a systematic way things about behaviour that were already known to advertisers and used-car salesmen”. #Lindy Evil nudgeboys Thaler-Sunstein do the exact opposite.   Permalink 3:53 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Now the mystery: there were a lot of Maltese-Lebanese trading families in Leb: +Abella, Sabella, Mamo, Camilleri, Aquilina, Borg (Borji), Mcallef +SALIBA in both (my mother’s original last name is Ghosn Saliba, not Ghosn) Phoenician practice to trade w/cousins across Med ? Permalink 1:55 AM – 10 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Mr President, we shall start the invasion at 1400 hours.   Permalink 4:19 PM – 9 Jun 2018

@trishankkarthik Once you come to #RWRI, you will never see the world the same way again @financequant @nntaleb   Permalink 2:28 PM – 9 Jun 2018

@normonics I like to say: GMO is like everyone in the world crossing the street together at the same time Permalink 1:22 PM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 5) Another reason there large entities don’t work in the Med, causing a scale problem: you cannot be alpha if you are not free & self-employed (or the boss), an employee of Goldman Sachs is of a lower status than a local doctor. Permalink 11:22 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb You can tell Maltese is a bit more Arabic than Lebanese: ecclesiatical & nonArabic Semitic terms are often from Latin/Italian whereas Leb uses Aramaic (Ġesù not Yasu3, Eva not 7awwa…) Means Maltese didn’t have these words in their corpus, which must have been Siculo-Arabic. Permalink 11:02 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 4) For instance to be Med you need to both disrespect hard work and respect success, exactly the opposite of the “work ethics” & the worship of labor in the non-necessarily Prostestant North. Permalink 9:44 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@Safaitic @nntaleb is on point. Stories of a grand Yemeni-Arab exodus following the collapse of the Marib dam are simply mythology. In no other field are legends taken at such face value. The term “Arab” and “Arabic” were appropriated and reimagined by Islamic-period writers to refer(cont. Permalink 3:00 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Brownian Bridge: Pinning Beginning (i.e., past) and End (i.e., present) and looking at probabilities of what could have happened in between is very, very useful in GENETICS and LINGUISTICS. Even if you don’t have the exact proba, you get the structure. My solution here. Permalink 2:11 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) Which means the 2aysi( qaysi)-Yamani fights could be infighting, a division that mimics the Byzantine Green-Blue one –the Druze are almost entirely Anatolian, genetically closest to Kurds.–Yaman_rivalry   Permalink 1:41 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb There is (in history textbooks) a story of Peninsular tribes settling into Lebanon (largely from Yemen). But genetics don’t show it: the Yemen story is a fabrication. Now @Safaitic is hinting that these tribes were from the Southern Levant. This can explain linguistic puzzles.   Permalink 1:33 AM – 9 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 3) The French have tried to become Meds for 2000 years. They can’t: except for spots, Germanics speaking a Latin language. Permalink 2:45 PM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Point is; if you’re not Med, you’ll never understand the Mediterranean. You can spend 31 y in Oxford reading “classics”, all that sh*t, & still understand nothing about the Mediterranean. Now, if you’re not Med, the closest you’ll ever get is via squid ink & Moustaki. Salve. Permalink 2:40 PM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Malta Permalink 12:58 PM – 8 Jun 2018

@cindyturlevnon كل استاذ مدرسة بعيّط ع تلميذ و بيجبرو يقول نعم غلطان وبيكون عم يمارس تعنيف لغوي. نحنا بطور لڤنن رح نوزّع مناشير توعية للمدارس عن الالفاظ السريانية بلغتنا اللبنانية، كمان مندعي كل بي و ام ما يستخفوا بالإرث الكبير يلي اخدناه من السرياني لغة جدودنا. #TurLevnon Permalink 9:40 AM – 8 Jun 2018

Espen Haug, Krugman, Monsanto, @DylanRatigan, Localism, #RWRI 8, TECHNICAL INCERTO, Powerful Yet Slaves | Twitter

@spyrosmakrid 1/ The M4 Competition, ended on 31/5, was an Open one, with its most important objective: “to learn to improve f/cing accuracy and advance the field”, in contrast to “horse race” ones, as those organized by Kaggle, aimed at finding winners in a black box. The M4’s findings follow Permalink 1:25 AM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Brownian Bridge! The best kind of practical problems.   Permalink 12:58 AM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Maltese is a language invented by a Levantine who read a lot of Italian novels.   Permalink 12:22 AM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Flaneuring bil Lébnéné = “shmm hawa” or, better, “re5iya”, or “2awwas 3ind rabbna” (about men of leisure).   Permalink 12:04 AM – 8 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Fl-ajruplan lejn Malta fl-aħħar Permalink 11:21 PM – 7 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Only if negatively correlated with another exposure of higher expected value in absolute terms. In other words, pay for insurance.   Permalink 1:37 AM – 7 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Espen is now doing work in physics. Veteran option traders have a no-nonsense approach to probability.   Permalink 6:13 PM – 6 Jun 2018

@EGHaug Out flaneuring with @nntaleb in Oslo, long bright days, and always some bright interesting insight from NNT on probabilities and life… Permalink 8:15 AM – 6 Jun 2018

@AlgoSlayer Oldie, but a goodie. Featuring @nntaleb Permalink 8:04 AM – 6 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Please. Please.   Permalink 9:16 AM – 5 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Unpublished 2nd volume of Dynamic Hedging Permalink 6:35 AM – 5 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Ma bi 7ékkak illa difrak = Your finger, and only your finger, can scratch your itch. [Liberal translation: finger in place of nail] Permalink 4:03 AM – 5 Jun 2018

@nntaleb LOCALISM explained in Lebanese: Ma bi 7ékkak illa difrak Permalink 3:56 AM – 5 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Krugman used his bully pulpit to take a cheap shot at @charlesmurray he deemed lower in the social science hierarchy. Murray isn’t my ideal intellecktshual, but @paulkrugman as a BS vendor is no judge of rigor, science, business, finance, ideas, erudition, or anything.   Permalink 5:26 PM – 4 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Monsanto figured out that calling a group “Academic Reviews” or “Literacy Project” they could promote their junk w/suckers believing the groups are actually “pro-science” -like dictatorships that call themselves “democratic republic” These agents will pay for destroyed careers.   Permalink 12:57 PM – 4 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 4 hours left, 6k votes so far.   Permalink 10:45 AM – 4 Jun 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Should have been for a weekend. A problem from the 2005 AMC   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 9:18 AM – 4 Jun 2018

@nntaleb For years I have been shouting “Delenda Monsanto” to whoever could listen. Looks like my wishes may be finally coming true. Another delenda: Saudi Barbaria Permalink 6:04 AM – 4 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Bayer is ditching the Monsanto name. Predictably, a liability: the most evil firm in history. Now will they also ditch the Monsanto practices: + intimidation of scientists + smear campaigns + lobbying + infiltration of the FDA + promotion of scientism w/jounos “pro-science” etc.   Permalink 4:07 AM – 4 Jun 2018

@raktagulikaa Wow, had no idea of this history in connection with the “olive oil vs butter” and “Europeans borrowing civilization” comments of @nntaleb   Permalink 12:27 AM – 4 Jun 2018

@nntaleb We know, empirically, that @paulkrugman’s opinion is useless taken at face value –practically abt everything. But can he be useful as “reverse indicator”, like traders so bad yet so nonrandom that colleagues imitate them in reverse (i,e. go short if they are bullsish, etc.) ? Permalink 2:49 PM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb My friend @DylanRatigan is running for elections as Democrat, but he has strong localist tendencies. To show that left-right is less meaningful.   Permalink 2:35 PM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb This is not tawk, but Skin in the Game. With @financequant and other members, we trained so far 400 people at less than ½ the tuition for executive education, w/30% scholarships, and our lecktchurs had 4-5 instructors present because it was so much fun.   Permalink 2:15 PM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb My experiment with the 8 cycles of #RWRI proved that, presently > 82% of university costs are to cover metastatic bureaucracies & lobbying real estate developers. In other words you can cut edyukashion costs from $50K to $9K with NO effect. Universities are committing suicide.   Permalink 2:00 PM – 3 Jun 2018

@_pierreblanc The curse of modernity is that we are increasingly populated by a class of people who are better at explaining than understanding, or better at explaining than doing. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life @nntaleb @GaryMarcus #futureofwork Permalink 12:37 PM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb Lahol yallé baddon yshufo kif lMalté 2arib 3an lghat Sémiyyé (2ul “Sémé” msh “3arabé”). Lézém nmshé warahon. #Localism   via @YouTube Permalink 10:24 AM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb A nice Cretan metaproblem for the morning coffee. Is a liar also necessarily a liar about being a liar? Is a liar who tells you that he is a liar a liar?   Permalink 6:13 AM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR. If 50% of the work is done by 1% of the people, prove that 80% of the work will be done by 20% of the people, assuming scalability.   Permalink 5:48 AM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 4) The Phoenicians were the localists of history, maneuvering across dominant empires by paying for mafia protection. Centralistas are so programmed to think anachronistically in nation-states that they spread the incoherent thesis by @josephinequinn that they didn’t exist. Permalink 4:22 AM – 3 Jun 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Those who say it is better not to mess with genetics may be right   Permalink 4:18 AM – 3 Jun 2018

@nntaleb That’s the reason to practice mathematics on a daily basis, especially when you write books & articles. Not because math is directly useful in life, but just to avoid turning into something like @sapinker   Permalink 3:38 AM – 3 Jun 2018

@RubenGao “Not everything that happes happens for a reason. But everything that survives survives for a reason” – @nntaleb Permalink 11:20 PM – 2 Jun 2018

@SBakerMD President of Australian Medical Association want Netflix to remove Keto friendly film “Magic Pill” Stupid or Corrupt?? Cast your votes now! Permalink 4:25 PM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #RWRI 8 THE SELF REFERENCE PROBLEM OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS A Quiz based on a rule offered by @Sarasewda, cc:@normonics @trishankkarthik Permalink 2:44 PM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 3) The naive political “scientists” (& other BS vendors) think superficially, in labels. They want the U.S. to not be a colony of Britain, but want Britain to be a colony of Brussels, & Nebraska to be a colony of Washington, D.C. They don’t get centralization . Permalink 10:20 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) People not trained in modern science are programmed to thing in terms of “left” & “right”, still trapped in a stone-age discourse. They miss on the property of scaling: effect is not invariant to size of autonomous unit. #localism #minorityrule   Permalink 10:12 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@Sarasewda My biggest takeaway. Thank you for sharing your thoughts with us. Life looks different now #RWRI #Rule22 @trishankkarthik @nntaleb   Permalink 10:11 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The opposite of fascism isn’t a democratic form of socialism; it’s localism. Permalink 9:27 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb The generalized birthday paradox from a @CutTheKnotMath problem Permalink 7:44 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb #RWRI Trivia: the best skills in applied probability are found in quant finance. Discovered that Nick Patterson the wiz kid mathematician of genetics worked at Renaissance when @financequant was a partner there.   Permalink 7:19 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb RWRI 8: a lot of NY   Permalink 6:04 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb RWRI 8 Answered @Shuwen22973519 Q abt error by geneticist @mt_genes trolling in support of some UK classicist w/o understanding the notion of JOINT distributions: if “Most Likely” (max p) subclades map to autosomal cluster, via ~k-mean, then necessarily indicative of origin.   Permalink 6:02 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 3) Accepting that some people (“past victims”) should be treated differently in matters of “racism” implies: accepting to have discounted (or waved) penalties for past victims of theft when they themselves commit theft. So many logical inconsistencies in these arguments! Permalink 5:29 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@Learn_lebanese naqqé ḥarf lal ح bel leğğa l’lebanneniyé. #LL Permalink 4:16 AM – 2 Jun 2018

@nntaleb RWRI 8: high Sharpe ratios are predictive of huge blowups. The more stable the return, the more likely the blowup. Volatile funds lose money; but not as much as nonvolatile ones. Permalink 11:45 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@nntaleb RWRI 8: Lecktchurer talking about how intellectulas yet idiots nudgeboys @r_thaler @CassSunstein increase risk in the system Permalink 9:13 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@MichaelSagnerMD Looking forward to seeing you all at ICCS 2018! @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam @swimdaily @normonics @trishankkarthik @stephen_wolfram @barabasi @ednapasher @cesifoti @C4computation   Permalink 8:00 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@nntaleb 2) To establish societal symmetry: The bigotteer needs to be penalized the same as the bigot. The false accuser needs to be penalized as if he committed the crime himself (Hammurabi). etc. Permalink 5:05 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@nntaleb It is RACIST to penalize someone from race A saying something abt someone from race B, but not someone from race B saying something abt someone from race A. It is worse than racist: it breaks societal symmetry. The same applies to gender. Permalink 4:55 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I can understand why some writers (Balzac) were obsessed with printing. Marx was right about the alienation (which he eventually helped increase). Artisans minimize the distance between labor and fruits of labor. Permalink 4:45 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@nntaleb I wrote in SITG abt artisans seeing their full product, unlike factory workers laboring on a portion of it. There is an immense satisfaction writing a book while controling 100% of the aesthetics,on the final format, as it will look *exactly* on the page. It makes it artisanal. Permalink 4:25 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@nntaleb OK, The Vol 1 of theTECHNICAL INCERTO, “The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Technical Papers and Commentary” will come out this year (color), thanks to @TuckerMax who manages my STEM ACADEMIC PUBLISHING (contract signed). Writing math on final format is like painting. Permalink 3:40 AM – 1 Jun 2018

@garyruskin Professor Leemon McHenry’s McHenry’s full paper on the #MonsantoPapers:   And his letter to publisher @tandfonline, regarding his paper on the #MonsantoPapers, and its apparent double standard in publishing   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 3:01 PM – 31 May 2018

@DataSciFact New post: Six sigma events Riffing on a line from @nntaleb   Permalink 12:46 PM – 31 May 2018

@nntaleb I am going on a linguistic trip. Alone, just to tawk & listen to the local language to get inspiration for the Lebanese neo-Phoenician writing system. Permalink 12:29 PM – 31 May 2018

@GuruAnaerobic ‘These findings suggest that during ageing, mitochondria lose the ability to produce energy during maximal efforts bt not when the energetic demand is lower.’ G. Anaerobic – “aging is diminishing tails; retain the ability to generate/withstand extremes”   Permalink 8:23 AM – 31 May 2018

@nntaleb “Nice guy” (“asshole”) is a compliment (insult) when uttered by family member (charlatans). Permalink 7:30 AM – 31 May 2018

@nntaleb Ana raye7 3a Malta la et3allam kif byektbo leghton el-Samiyyé e bi 3isho ka Europiyyé b-légha mitl tab3iitna. Permalink 6:18 AM – 31 May 2018

@nntaleb Friends, where in Malta should one stay? Permalink 5:36 AM – 31 May 2018

@nntaleb Some optimist on the Greco-Turkish fraternity, once they get it that they may have the same lineage.   Permalink 6:58 PM – 30 May 2018

@Shuwen22973519 I just uploaded ‘Oinops pontos.docx’ to @academia!   Permalink 6:57 PM – 30 May 2018

@nntaleb The success of twitter lies in twitter fights. (An idea of @normonics ) Permalink 5:16 PM – 30 May 2018

@nntaleb “If p=np I don’t want to be alive” @trishankkarthik Permalink 2:35 PM – 30 May 2018

@trishankkarthik @financequant: A model does not describe its own limitations and risks. @nntaleb #RWRI (I may have butchered it a bit, but you get the idea) Permalink 1:04 PM – 30 May 2018

@hagaetc I never imagined that my idols @nntaleb and @kanyewest would pride my wall in one single picture, but then again black swans do occur – scoopdidypoop! Permalink 12:15 PM – 30 May 2018

@john_f_hamer “Religion isn’t so much about telling man that there is one God as about preventing man from thinking that he is God.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (2016) @nntaleb @BarbaraRKay @ahaspel @TheJosephRosen Permalink 11:19 AM – 30 May 2018

@nntaleb Thanking @_swanson for the recommendation. Permalink 11:02 AM – 30 May 2018

@nntaleb Italian publisher is in town. Permalink 10:23 AM – 30 May 2018

@nntaleb We are now talking about GMO idiots who don’t get CA.   Permalink 7:10 AM – 30 May 2018

@trishankkarthik @nntaleb Rule 110 is universal Permalink 6:58 AM – 30 May 2018

@nntaleb μα μπα3ρεφ… μιμκεν μπασ λεζεμ νγαυυερ καμμ σηαγλε   Permalink 4:24 AM – 30 May 2018

@EJSMD Recall, when Public Health initiatives fail, they can fail in spectacular fashion. —low fat diet & obesity crisis —chronic pain Rx & opioid crisis —#EHR, metrics & MD burnout Central health planners need #skininthegame @nntaleb @afrakt @aaronecarroll   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:15 AM – 30 May 2018

@LIHF_Living Finished this last night.. Before reading @nntaleb I thought I was alone and going insane. After reading, I was comforted by the fact that there are at least 2 nutters in the world that think alike, and a namesake at that! Permalink 11:08 PM – 29 May 2018

@nntaleb You can control people. You can’t control information. People are upset over the ban, much, much more than the arrest. The more you stifle information, the louder it gets. #Antifragile   Permalink 4:42 AM – 29 May 2018

@nntaleb Fi shi ismo AERAL INFLUENCE: lamma legtein byen7eko 7add ba3don, bisouro byeshbaho naghmet ba3don: lfrensewé 3indo l “r” mitl el Ilmané, l3ibrani mitl l Ilmané. L bayruté mitl l Tilyéné naghméto (wl Yunéné): lamma ne7ké Tiliyéné ma 3inna lahjé awiyyé. Permalink 3:56 AM – 29 May 2018

@ole_b_peters What can I say? Thank you for spreading the word, @nntaleb. I’m fully aware it sounds unbelievable, and I suppose that’s why economics journals haven’t yet published it. Our approach right now: demonstrate scientific superiority of the alternative formalism.   Permalink 10:57 AM – 28 May 2018