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Nassim Nicholas Taleb Sees Worse Tail Risks Than in 2007 | Bloomberg

Nassim Nicholas Taleb Sees Worse Tail Risks Than in 2007 | Bloomberg
“Trump Isn’t A Trainwreck” Nassim Taleb Destroys Media Narrative, Urges “Rational” Investors To Hedge | ZeroHedge


Trump, Vegas, Gardner | Twitter

@nntaleb What people aren’t getting about Trump. (updated)   Permalink 7:51 AM – 19 May 2017

@nntaleb Follow today @CutTheKnotMath if you are remotely into math. Permalink 7:47 AM – 19 May 2017

@nntaleb Nothing like a visual solution to a seemingly intractable problem. Permalink 7:43 AM – 19 May 2017

@nntaleb How most people cannot figure out Trump   via @markets Permalink 1:44 PM – 18 May 2017

@nntaleb Bloomberg TV in Vegas… their camera makes me gain weight!   via @markets Permalink 12:22 PM – 18 May 2017

@nntaleb I am in Las Vegas. I am told that what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas. Now does that apply to calories? (My friends are asking.) Permalink 9:43 AM – 18 May 2017

@nntaleb Next week   Permalink 8:56 AM – 18 May 2017

@nntaleb The problem with pple without skin in the game: they genuinely EQUATE intelligence, culture, & ethics with being on the left.   Permalink 8:43 AM – 18 May 2017

@Cernovich Fox News wanted to go “mainstream,” all that happened is they lost viewers. Murdoch sons are beta males.   Permalink 8:19 PM – 17 May 2017

@nntaleb A twist for Holder’s Ineq. Permalink 5:44 PM – 17 May 2017

@nntaleb Las Vegas: mostly prediabetic men in shorts. (#3) Permalink 4:17 PM – 17 May 2017

@nntaleb No.   @dottorpax   Permalink 9:34 AM – 17 May 2017

@nntaleb Voila   Permalink 6:08 AM – 17 May 2017

@nntaleb What do you prefer, to be a BS Vendor but Bill Gates think you are solid (@sapinker), or be solid but Bill Gates think you are a BS vendor?   Permalink 11:12 AM – 16 May 2017

@nntaleb How do I know that Gardner coauthor of @PTetlock is total charlatan? Charlatans engage in BS & strawman arguments. We considered homicide Permalink 8:22 AM – 16 May 2017

@nntaleb If you are not worried about the minority rule under globalization, you don’t understand globalization nor anything.   Permalink 7:01 AM – 16 May 2017

@nntaleb The “blasphemy” was mere interpretation of rights. Soon in a place near you…   Permalink 6:57 AM – 16 May 2017

@nntaleb Great map for someone exactly half Greek half Phoenician!   Permalink 6:44 AM – 16 May 2017

@nntaleb Note that this charlatan Gardner doesn’t know that statistically homicide+violence frm war= violence frm war: thintail + fattail= fattail. Permalink 6:05 AM – 16 May 2017

@nntaleb Note that this charlatan Gardner doesn’t know that statistically homicide+violence frm war= violence frm war: thintail + fattail= fattail. Permalink 6:05 AM – 16 May 2017

@nntaleb Simple method showing SP500 is incompatible with anything but powerlaw tail. Left tail exponent between 2.2 and 2.8 Permalink 5:33 AM – 16 May 2017

@nntaleb Not me!   Permalink 3:15 PM – 15 May 2017

@nntaleb For those interested, here is our work w/@DrCirillo on violence.Process is VERY fat tailed,nearly Levy distribution   Permalink 1:31 PM – 15 May 2017

@nntaleb I wrote history jumps (FatTails), not continuous (Wiener) process. Charlatan Gardner cherrypicks to crime rate at 1 scale,not total violence Permalink 1:16 PM – 15 May 2017

@nntaleb This book is not a book, but a monument. I have been reading rules from it for 10 years.   Permalink 11:59 AM – 15 May 2017

@nntaleb I knew from his books @dgardner was ignorant. Didn’t realize so much. 1-violence fat tailed 2-Prob dist assc w/ time scale/granularity.   Permalink 11:49 AM – 15 May 2017

@nntaleb Some write so they can remember thing, I write to forget. in Bed of Procrustes   Permalink 6:06 AM – 15 May 2017

@nntaleb Freedom is never free. It requires risk taking. #Skininthegame Permalink 5:16 AM – 15 May 2017

@nntaleb Mr Kloor, I’m sure that Dan Drezner wouldn’t be excited to discover he associated w/an unethical shill w/Monsanto agenda just to spite me. Permalink 4:29 AM – 15 May 2017

@nntaleb Fixed some errors Permalink 4:22 PM – 14 May 2017

@nntaleb One can use option algebra to prove Hlawka’s inequality. A note after a problem by Maestro Bogomolny (@CutTheKnotMath) Permalink 4:15 PM – 14 May 2017

@nntaleb 2) Drezner boy you have never done science so stay in your WP world and don’t lecture on stat procedures. Permalink 2:01 PM – 14 May 2017

@nntaleb Drezner boy before you usual BS outside your field, ask. We want to have data AUDITED but not by someone both ignorant & in bad faith. Permalink 2:00 PM – 14 May 2017

@nntaleb Just did some flaneuring there… But forgot about this passage   Permalink 10:41 AM – 14 May 2017

@nntaleb The best argument against aIgorithmic decision making.   Permalink 10:22 AM – 14 May 2017

@nntaleb Most convincing argument is the “zero-intelligence trading” experiments by which markets separate from participants   Permalink 10:09 AM – 14 May 2017

@RonPaul The marketplace is the natural government of man   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:23 AM – 14 May 2017

@nntaleb Fake virtue, how socialits tend to not have skin in their game, how Hillary abuses household staff, etc. Permalink 7:33 AM – 14 May 2017

@nntaleb What I define as “an assistant” is someone not hired for a specific task (say a plumber, a typesetter), but more general one. Kapish? Permalink 5:45 AM – 14 May 2017

@nntaleb Nothing in the foundations of RATIONAL decision th prevents you from walking away fr0m monetary gains Binmore’s book   Permalink 3:27 PM – 13 May 2017

@nntaleb Revenge isn’t just revenge. It’s a deterrent. Permalink 2:45 PM – 13 May 2017

@nntaleb In debate btw @MaxAbrahms and @JulianRoepcke, Max proves clarity of mind & logic, Roepcke all bad traits of thinktank propaganda/BSvending.   Permalink 9:31 AM – 13 May 2017

@nntaleb In debate btw @MaxAbrahms and @JulianRoepcke, Max proves clarity of mind & logic, Roepcke all bad traits of thinktank propaganda/BSvending.   Permalink 9:31 AM – 13 May 2017

@nntaleb Resisting Globalization, it turns out, is NOT against economic theory/decision making. Just look at the axioms/foundations. Permalink 6:39 AM – 13 May 2017

@nntaleb Grrrrreat advice I got: have no assistant. Permalink 5:00 AM – 13 May 2017

@nntaleb “H ratio” minimizes variance of citations across publications. It institutionalizes mediocrity. Better max citations from little work. Permalink 4:30 AM – 13 May 2017

@nntaleb In the presence of conflicting narratives, I resort to @RonPaul as there is not one fake bone in his body. Permalink 4:57 AM – 12 May 2017

@Cernovich “How To Fight The Establishment Propaganda Machine And Win” — Caitlin Johnstone—119-233   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:01 PM – 11 May 2017

@nntaleb BS Alert: The sentence “underlining a growing credibility crisis for the administration” can be put on anything any time. I despise journos. Permalink 2:55 PM – 11 May 2017

The Skin of Others in your Game | Medium

The Skin of Others in your Game

The only way we have left to control suicide-terrorists would be precisely to convince them that blowing themselves up is not the worse-case scenario for them, nor the end-scenario at all. Making their families and loved ones bear a financial burden –just as Germans as still paying for war crimes –would immediately add consequences to their actions, inject that element of skin in the game that is needed. This requires some care in preventing their families from feeling martyrdom –the penalty needs to be properly calibrated to be a nuisance without imparting any form of heroism to the person.

What Nassim Taleb Can Teach Us | Mises Institute

Article: What Nassim Taleb Can Teach Us


Nassim Nicholas Taleb does not suffer fools gladly. Author of several books including The Black Swan and Antifragile, Taleb is known for his incendiary personality almost as much as his brilliant work in probability theory. Readers of his very active Medium page will experience a formidable mind with no patience for trendy groupthink, a mind that takes special pleasure in lambasting elites with no “skin in the game.”

Maronites, Flynn, Applebaum, Shamri, Saudi Barbaria, Napoleon, the French, Nate Silver, Sarsour | Twitter

@nntaleb A Greek-Orthodox (me) will give a short lecture about reviving the language of the Maronites in …an Armenian place of worship in NY.   Permalink 7:28 PM – 10 May 2017

@nntaleb Squid ink Permalink 5:36 PM – 10 May 2017

@nntaleb It is easier to fool someone perceived as “intelligent” than a doorman. Just use abstract words in your argument. Permalink 3:57 PM – 10 May 2017

@nntaleb I don’t drink beer. Would bourbon do?   Permalink 1:20 PM – 10 May 2017

@nntaleb “Intelligent” Ivy-league people (those exam-taking idiots, IYIs) are structurally selected for finding patterns, not doubting them. Permalink 9:49 AM – 10 May 2017

@nntaleb Conspiracy theorizing reflects minds evolved enough to see patterns, but insufficiently to prune out the spurious. #FooledbyRandomness Permalink 9:13 AM – 10 May 2017

@RyderCleary WSJ editors have been reading their @nntaleb. #Antifragile Permalink 8:31 AM – 10 May 2017

@nntaleb Year end picture & class party w students of my class at School of Engineering NYU @nyutandon Permalink 4:04 PM – 9 May 2017

@nntaleb Standing press (clean and press without the clean). Permalink 2:38 PM – 9 May 2017

@nntaleb Friends, what is the press equivalent to deadlifting 400lb? Permalink 2:35 PM – 9 May 2017

@MaxBlumenthal Bana Alabed & the White Helmets build on a grand tradition of pro-war psy-ops, most notably this Gulf War-era scam:   Permalink 12:20 PM – 9 May 2017

@CynicalSceptic_ Every day is a good day when @nntaleb and @GadSaad shit on the elitist establishment. God bless both of you!   Permalink 6:23 AM – 9 May 2017

@nntaleb Corrected typos Permalink 5:36 AM – 9 May 2017

@nntaleb The skinny-fat warmonger is something new in history. Opening the discussion for my evo friends @johndurant @primalpoly @GadSaad Permalink 5:35 AM – 9 May 2017

@saifedean 5 decades of being predominantly unproductive consumers living off petrodollar rents cannot be reversed in a year, or even in a generation. Permalink 4:09 AM – 9 May 2017

@nntaleb If you worry about your reputation you don’t deserve to have one. Permalink 1:37 PM – 8 May 2017

@nntaleb Michael Flynn knew about Obama’s support for AlQaeda “rebels”   Permalink 11:11 AM – 8 May 2017

@nntaleb The same probability as Hillary Clinton getting the Clay Prize for a complete mathematical solution of the P-NP problem or Navier-Stokes Eq   Permalink 6:18 AM – 8 May 2017

@nntaleb “To succeed, you need 2 things: ignorance and confidence” & “To fail, you need 2 things:ignorance and confidence” Defines #SurvivorshipBias   Permalink 5:35 AM – 8 May 2017

@nntaleb The BS-buster @DanielLMcAdams debunks @anneapplebaum who’s half way between an unintelligent wind-vendor & a dangerous warmonging shill.   Permalink 4:58 AM – 8 May 2017

@nntaleb Nontraders & bureaucrats are under the illusion that if demand ↓1% price ↓1%. In fact demand ↓1% can cause (in squeezes) ↓50%! Kapish? Permalink 4:38 AM – 8 May 2017

@nntaleb   Permalink 3:37 PM – 7 May 2017

@nntaleb How long before Saudi Barbaria undergoes a deep economic crisis, become literally bust? All it takes is demand for oil to drop by 5-12%. Permalink 2:15 PM – 7 May 2017

@nntaleb Mr Shahbandar, Arab bullshit vendors w/o scholarly credentials who shill for a living are ALSO fragile in their reputation. Kapish? Permalink 2:02 PM – 7 May 2017

@scrollinondubs thank u @nntaleb for all you do outing charlatans. you are a role model to us all via your service & sacrifices   Permalink 1:13 PM – 7 May 2017

@nntaleb Those of us worried abt alliance between @realDonaldTrump & Saudi Barbaria hope that he is just playing them.   Permalink 12:34 PM – 7 May 2017

@nntaleb In 1960s, Cyprus, Lebanon & Malta had similar wealth, genes & culture. Cyprus & Malta embraced the West. Lebanon tried “Arabism”. Disaster. Permalink 4:57 AM – 7 May 2017

@nntaleb Clooney fears tweeting when drunk: actors are obsessed w/reputation. Also fears not taking AlQaeds script in Syria. Romans despised actors.   Permalink 2:05 PM – 6 May 2017

@nntaleb IYIs, Intellectuals Yet Idiots, favor things that work in theory but not in practice to things that work in practice but not in theory. Permalink 9:24 AM – 6 May 2017

@nntaleb Something rings strange w/the wage gap: someone has to be an imbecile to overpay for gender when corps profitability lies in the last penny. Permalink 5:45 AM – 6 May 2017

@nntaleb Why people who deadlift /clean-press should have a pseudo-belly for stability: thin waistline is obtained artificially via machines. Permalink 4:47 AM – 6 May 2017

@nntaleb I just published “The Skin of Others in your Game”   Permalink 3:27 AM – 6 May 2017

@nntaleb Mitanni were IndoEuropeans. Spec: + Mitanni were J2 + Assyrians and Phoenicians descend from Mitanni who took on Semitic lang. @PZalloua Permalink 2:29 AM – 6 May 2017

@nntaleb That’s Salibi’s bullshit. Looks like it was limited to Damascus. Permalink 4:40 PM – 5 May 2017

@nntaleb French history textbooks hype up Napoleon’s “Egyptology”, do not mention that he attempted to destroy ALL ruins of Granada. Permalink 4:00 PM – 5 May 2017

@nntaleb So either Ghassanids converted to Islam or they weren’t of J1 Haplogroup to start with. Permalink 2:29 PM – 5 May 2017

@nntaleb Friends, there are claims that politicians on the “right” are much more personable & friendly to staff than those on “left”. Any data/refs? Permalink 2:12 PM – 5 May 2017

@nntaleb DNA analyses hint that, contrary to legend, there are minimal numbers of Christians in thhe Levant who descend from Ghassanids. @PZalloua   Permalink 1:40 PM – 5 May 2017

@nntaleb Nobody dare to discuss the male-female life expectance gap. Or the male-female prison population gap.   Permalink 10:34 AM – 5 May 2017

@nntaleb Nobody is saying we shouldn’t learn about Napoleon. Except he should not be whitewashed. Kapish? Permalink 9:14 AM – 5 May 2017

@nntaleb There is very little that is Mediterranean about the “French” (north of Avignon), except, of course, their language.   Permalink 8:34 AM – 5 May 2017

@nntaleb Unconditional antifragility of information: it thrives from all visible attempts at suppression. Neofascists (libs, “left”) don’t get it. Permalink 8:23 AM – 5 May 2017

@pauld1981 French are suckers for hierarchy, they believe what the establishment tells them … where’s the Coluche of this time? Permalink 8:06 AM – 5 May 2017

@nntaleb Heuristic: for international transactions, AVOID forum in country w/Napoleon’s code civil in favor of Anglo-style law. HK, SG, US… Kapish? Permalink 6:16 AM – 5 May 2017

@nntaleb If you can make the French believe that a despot, Napoleon,can strengthen the “Revolution” w/an Imperial family, you can sell them anything! Permalink 5:46 AM – 5 May 2017

@nntaleb I fail to understand why Napoleon doesn’t figure out among the criminally pathological nuts of history. Whitewashing by France?   Permalink 5:35 AM – 5 May 2017

@nntaleb Aside from that, elections are NOT similar. Le Pen is not Trump, but a professional politician. Permalink 4:05 PM – 4 May 2017

@nntaleb Hillary   Permalink 11:53 AM – 3 May 2017

@nntaleb Haven’t read @BretStephensNYT’s article (I don’t read pseudointellectual NYT). What we said abt climate & precaution   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:14 AM – 3 May 2017

@nntaleb Cory Doctorow @doctorow has been actively & knowlingly misrepresenting & trying to spead fake news about my position on homeopathy. Permalink 5:35 AM – 3 May 2017

@BisayaFilms #TalebXPhilippines Permalink 4:47 AM – 3 May 2017

@nntaleb Explaining how to price elections and why Nate Silver is clueeeeeeeeeless about probability. @realHarryCrane   Permalink 4:38 AM – 3 May 2017

@nntaleb Gitanos should be able to teach us a few things about flaneuring, survival, & soul in the music. Permalink 5:23 PM – 2 May 2017

@cedantarmatog1 Interesting article on @nntaleb at   Permalink 1:22 PM – 2 May 2017

@nntaleb Friends, looking for reliable accounts on Spanish gypsies, one that is not written by some English or Cultural Studies professor. Permalink 9:30 AM – 2 May 2017

@nntaleb A government run by professionals is like a form or a trading house run by back office &support people. But firms go bust, govs expand. Permalink 5:29 AM – 2 May 2017

@nntaleb Read @HRW reports abt Aleppo 2016; turned out almost all AlQaeda dictated fiction. They didn’t retract. We should believe them… now?   Permalink 4:56 AM – 2 May 2017

@nntaleb Just wrote the central comment of Skin in the Game: Systems learn by removing parts. Permalink 3:09 AM – 2 May 2017

@nntaleb Applied math.   Permalink 12:41 PM – 1 May 2017

@nntaleb Don’t complain too loud about wrongs done to you; you may give ideas to your less imaginative enemies. The Bed of Procrustes Permalink 12:27 PM – 1 May 2017

@nntaleb Burn old logs Drink old wine Read old books Keep old friends, Alphonso X, #LindyEffect   Permalink 12:22 PM – 1 May 2017

@MrAlexisPereira As @nntaleb once said, the reason why Trump is so comically bad at explaining things is that he’s never had a boss. Permalink 9:46 AM – 1 May 2017

@nntaleb #skininthegame Jihadi women find it easy to make pronouncements living in Brooklyn, under Western protective laws. Sarsour is despicable.   Permalink 8:34 AM – 1 May 2017

@nntaleb Maimonides, Medical Aphorisms (Heuristics): the young can afford to overeat, the elder should watch his quantities. He found it in Galen. Permalink 8:09 AM – 1 May 2017

@nntaleb It is vastly more honorable to get rich THEN go to office than go to office THEREFORE get rich. Permalink 8:03 AM – 1 May 2017

@john_f_hamer @nntaleb Permalink 7:07 AM – 1 May 2017

@nntaleb Peace: Neither Ink nor Blood   Permalink 6:52 AM – 1 May 2017

@maui4321 “An honest public servant can’t become rich in politics.” — Harry Truman Permalink 5:40 AM – 1 May 2017

@nntaleb These idiots don’t get that the pblm isn’t making money, it’s using NONPROFIT sector to SUBSEQUENTLY get rich (Blair, Clintons, Husseins O)   Permalink 4:44 AM – 1 May 2017

@nntaleb (cont) Which sums up to: “You, and only you, know what’s best for you.” Permalink 4:06 AM – 1 May 2017

@nntaleb Also: Non v ‘e piu bel messo che se stesso On ne trouve jamais meilleur messager que soi-meme Pretty much the foundation of #Libertarianism Permalink 4:00 AM – 1 May 2017

@nntaleb Motto of #SkinintheGame & Liberty “Your fingernail can best scratch your itch” Non scabat caput praeter unges tuo ما بحكك الا ظفرك in1614! Permalink 3:49 AM – 1 May 2017