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Jouer sa peau | How to write Lebanese (in Lebanese) | Weak and Strong Non-Ergodicities – Youtube

Jordan Peterson, Hoover Institute, Monsanto, Pinker, Fat Tails, Sam Harris, Jouer sa peau, Bitcoin, Tetlock, Thaler, Palestinians – Twitter

@BadgerPundit   Permalink 8:25 AM – 6 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Any news if $XIV is trading now & what price? Permalink 8:00 AM – 6 Feb 2018

@nntaleb 2) Ancient Egyptians DNA. Please not another Mary Beard BS.   Permalink 2:59 AM – 6 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The discovery that Ancient Egyptians were likely to be Natufians/Anatolians.   Permalink 2:17 AM – 6 Feb 2018

@TMFStoffel I published this piece on @nntaleb’s new book and how it applies to investors over the weekend. Seems more relevant than every less than 48 hours later   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:31 PM – 5 Feb 2018

@nntaleb RE ARTISANS (added to SITG) The most skilled traders are often wealthy, but not the wealthiest: many traders trade out of passion & aren’t interested in running a business. To become a billionaire, one needs an appetite for meetings, discussions with lawyers and regulators, etc. Permalink 5:27 AM – 5 Feb 2018

@nntaleb People associated w/”prestigious” institutions (e.g. Stanford’s @HooverInst) are very vulnerable because the inst. cares abt its image, particularly if as with @henryImiller it is scientific fraud. For that one needs f** you money but those who have it don’t shill for Monsanto Permalink 6:04 PM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I got uncomfortable with @jordanbpeterson (whom I had been backing) after his thingy with Monsanto. Permalink 5:30 PM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Dear officials at the Hoover Institute, @HooverInst have you started some ethics/disciplinary action against @henryimiller who committed a scholarly fraud? Is your board aware of it? Please let us know before we escalate. Thank you. Permalink 5:02 PM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Articles about me by Monsanto’s shill of shills @henryimiller have been removed by Forbes. Too bad I have no copy! And thank you @garyruskin for your vigilance (assuming you are responsible for busting Miller)! Permalink 4:50 PM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Le corp de mon ennemi   Permalink 9:24 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@MarkJDoran Classic example from recent weeks: Mary Beard giving cosy footrubs to Hillary Clinton, with the sickening result pumped out by the Guardian as if it’s an important conversation… Guess what: the word ‘Libya’ *doesn’t appear once*…   Permalink 8:05 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@JulianAssange Intellectuals, with exceptions famous precisely because of their exceptionality, have always served as skilled apologists for the classes who control their funding, career advancement and social elevation.   Permalink 7:51 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I hate to write for newspapers (last was 6y ago) because you can’t be playful, write on your own terms, make the reader concentrate on some stuff, etc. Permalink 6:57 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb (انقلاب ) is a loan word from Arabic used for coup and (شورش ) is from Farsi but can be Semitic ( uprooting) Permalink 6:52 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Philology du jour: where you learn that in Farsi, “revolution” انقلاب is the same word as “coup (d’etat)” ( شورش and انقلاب are synonyms).   Permalink 5:42 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Version 2. Permalink 5:20 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@DrCirillo For an Italian, it is not really Sunday without homemade lasagne. Today no probability, just mouthwatering certainties. Permalink 4:52 AM – 4 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Not getting feedback: it is easy to read? Representative? Instead of sending the book to reviewers (who from experience rarely read the book), I am writing my own exposition. Permalink 1:55 PM – 3 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Friends, this Op-Ed explaining (some of the aspects of) the book is here for comments. Will delete later, as per rules of journal. Permalink 1:37 PM – 3 Feb 2018

@nntaleb For those who want to see the text of our study on violence (with @DrCirillo )   Permalink 6:05 AM – 3 Feb 2018

@GhassanDahhan SPECULATION: Sextus Empiricus, the famous Sceptic, was not an Egyptian or an original Greek (i.e. he’s not Sextus of Chaeronea, as some have suggested). I have many reasons to believe that he was a *Libyan Greek*. Permalink 5:14 AM – 3 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I almost never post bad reviews. I had to for Pinker’s book. When you see huuuge BS, you shout huuuge BS.   (some editing will appear in few days) Permalink 2:58 PM – 2 Feb 2018

@ektrit This discovery proves @nntaleb ‘s postulation: “History is Hearsay, plus Fabrication, plus some Truth”   Permalink 2:34 PM – 2 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Here’s what I got so far with an explanation of why the result is sometimes e-1 and sometimes just e. It’s all in the formulation.   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 9:38 AM – 2 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The problem of statistical inference under fat tails: My next lecktchur, simplified in book with @DrCirillo Permalink 7:44 AM – 2 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The first review of the INCERTO as a whole, not taken as bodyparts, by @BrankoMilan. Bypassing the media (except in France) and skipping the book tour (except for lecktchurs in London & NY).   Permalink 7:12 AM – 2 Feb 2018

@smnjc “Skin in the game”, par le maître de l’anti-bullshit @nntaleb (excellent compte-rendu de @NessimAitKacimi dans @LesEchos).   Permalink 3:56 AM – 2 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The fellow is an honest person. He conceded under the calm convincing skills of@ @DrCirillo   Permalink 5:16 PM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb The fellow is an honest person. He conceded under the calm convincing skills of@ @DrCirillo   Permalink 5:16 PM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Now here is “statistical estimator”. Nothing works under fat tails as is. Hence our book with @DrCirillo   Permalink 1:43 PM – 1 Feb 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Dropping points on a circle #FigureThat #math #probability Permalink 1:18 PM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb And when you ask these ignorant econometricians like @freakonometrics they recite Extreme Value Theory which never claimed to do statistical inference. Permalink 1:17 PM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb In 100 years we’ve had imbeciles like this Arthur Charpentier claiming that “we know about Fat Tails” not realizing ALL his work goes down the toilet. Where are the papers on statistical estimation?   Permalink 1:09 PM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb I am tired, tired, tired of people who say “We know about fat tails” yet 1) fail to use them, see 2) the consequences, 3) realize accepting fat tails means CHANGING completely the way to do statistical inference. And NO, nothing has been done by nobody.   Permalink 1:01 PM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Iphone 8, Iphone X, or neither? Thanks in advance, friends. Permalink 10:25 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Corruption   Permalink 10:00 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@ludvigbel If I had not read @nntaleb, I would have ended up as a bureaucrat married to a boring notary. No kidding, almost happened. Instead I joined startups, endured financial hardship, married an amazing lively girl, moved with her abroad, who knows what next. Ok ok, hindsight bias. Permalink 9:43 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb We need more Serge Langs (a mathematician who blocked social scientists from being considered scientists). Permalink 9:10 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Obviously, the mean simplifies to Exp[T \mu] Permalink 8:37 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Changing the mind of students, one PhD student at a time.   Permalink 8:26 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Voila. Updated Silent Risk and the lextchur notes. Permalink 7:18 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@BT_BXL Very good short argument for “the uniqueness and importance of Nassim Taleb”. Don’t be put off by Taleb’s ostentatious and digressive style of writing* or his cantankerous persona on Twitter! *unlike @BrankoMilan I think NT’s ideas succeed despite his style not because of it.   Permalink 6:16 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Here is a draft of the difference between Weak and Strong ergodicities for correction by @ole_b_peters Permalink 5:02 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@ydemombynes 5ème et dernier volume de la cultissime série #Incerto de @nntaleb. Une fois de plus érudit, provocateur, visionnaire. Chapeau l’artiste Permalink 1:52 AM – 1 Feb 2018

@nntaleb Goof to be often understood.   Permalink 8:39 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Dominant haplogroup good proxy of overall distance metric as it matches autosomal DNA. There is no granularity but Tunis has coastal J1, South Italy is heavily J2.   Permalink 8:38 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 4) Note from above that to be rich in Europe, one has to use the state. This is what happens when you live under the invasive, large, powerful, centralized State. We were heading in that direction under Obama and his crony capitalists. Permalink 7:14 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Before you take anyone commentary seriously, ask him for his predictions for the last election (and, worse, the methodology used for it). BS vending is easy to detect.   Permalink 7:12 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) Example: Under Obama bankers got in 2010 the largest bonus pool ever, engineered by Tim Geithner. Geithner later got a high paying job in the industry. Permalink 5:58 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) For the slow at getting it, using fame attained *thanks to* the office to sell book contracts is different from attaining fame selling books. Government service is not an investment strategy. Gabish? Permalink 5:56 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Money made THANKS to office is rent-seeking. A former president/PM/official making money from book contracts, lectures, or from “friendly corporations” they helped is THEFT from the public. As bad as it may look, making money BEFORE office is vastly less distorting.   Permalink 5:37 AM – 31 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Waiting for a Larger Number   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 1:42 PM – 30 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 1) This is what the precautionary principle deals with. Which is why nudgeboy @R_thaler, verbagiastic @PTetlock & other psychologists are totally klueeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeless about probability.   Permalink 10:10 AM – 30 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Azar is another Greco-Phoenician from tiny Amioun.   Permalink 9:18 AM – 30 Jan 2018

@_benoux_ From the 1st scene of Iliad, Achilles openly accuses Agamemnon as being corrupted, in front of the whole council. It’s an attitude typical of the concept of μπέσα (brutal honesty + honour) inspiring respect (not tolerance), central to the fighting greco-mediterranean temperament. Permalink 4:23 PM – 29 Jan 2018

@normonics I note also, in addition to N’s respondents being barbell, so are his interactions. he either savages or has a friendly constructive exchange Permalink 3:00 PM – 29 Jan 2018

@mikeandallie (1/2) My math goal for 2018 is gaining a better understanding of the various processes described in this short video Nassim Taleb published today.   Permalink 2:48 PM – 29 Jan 2018

@schmittpaula This is often what happens to truly courageous investigative journalists: unemployment.   Permalink 2:21 PM – 29 Jan 2018

@startupdaemon You ever wonder why @realDonaldTrump @nntaleb & @ScottAdamsSays argue with idiots on the Internet? It’s even funnier than you think. And instructive.   Permalink 2:09 PM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The difference between weak and strong non-ergodicities, based on Peters and Gell-Mann (2016) cc:@ole_b_peters   Permalink 10:31 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb “Insight” and “analysis” is what commonly bears the scientific designation: bullshit, short for unrigorous verbiagistic text and images strung together.   Permalink 7:12 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Symmetry (Silver rule of Isocrates) Treat other countries the way you would like them to treat you. (#Skininthegame)   Permalink 5:02 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb ReLU is excellent, even for other convexities. Permalink 4:42 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I wonder if Lakens boy @lakens has comments as, although quite verbagiastic & ignorant (he is a f***ng psychologist), he was indirectly useful with previous versions. Permalink 4:28 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Mathematics offer certainties but not effectiveness Engineering offers effectiveness but not certainties Social Science offers neither certainties nor effectiveness Permalink 4:23 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@nntaleb   Reformatted the P-Value paper. ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 4:18 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@NessimAitKacimi Victoriam Roma, Nassim Nicholas Taleb et son nouvel essai “Jouer sa peau” chez @BellesLettresEd   Permalink 12:43 AM – 29 Jan 2018

@ClimateAudit @nntaleb this should concern you. There are relatively few sites which have continuity from the Bronze Age to the Iron Age. This is also a site which links Indo-European Hittites to neo-Hittite northern Syria. Bombing such an important archaeological site should cause outrage.   Permalink 6:06 PM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb No, there is quite a bit if variance along the line. Permalink 11:45 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 8) OK, let me be blunt. How many professions do you know, other than the ones where physical attributes are essential, where the modus “sleep your way up” prevails? Permalink 11:11 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Here is the refinement of genetic distance principal components. Permalink 11:06 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 7) Now a harder questchon: what is the proportion of actors who voted for Hilary Monsanto-Malmaison? Permalink 8:55 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 6) Remember: actors are trained to not seem stupid. Permalink 7:47 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Hilarious!   Permalink 7:11 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 5) And for the slow thinkers on the thread, you don’t see gynecologists or train engineers lektchuring the rest of the world on virtue. Actors do. Gabish? Permalink 6:32 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 4) Actors should not be the ones lektchuring the rest of us on ethics & morality. They also have a tendency to conflate virtue and its external manifestation, given that everything in their world is appearance.   Permalink 5:47 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@ole_b_peters Great, thanks! Multiplicative coin toss, discussed in the paper with Murray   with an (old) video here   Also instructive: X does an unbiased random walk. Heads: X -> X+1 Tails: X -> X-1 Fair coin. — what’s the time average of X? Permalink 5:26 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) I do not know many industries where people are hired either a) on looks, or b) ability to impersonate what one is not. Permalink 5:26 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) Romans banned actors from marrying, even mixing with citizens. Same dynamics in modern times, but self-inflicted: engineers can mix w/gynecologists… actors stay with actors. Look at the funerals of “gens du spectacle”. Permalink 5:14 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@nntaleb To understand why what happens in Hollywood is irrelevant to the rest of humans: 1) How many ACTORs do you have among your friends? 2) How many ACTOR friends do your friends have? Actors rarely mix with real people. Permalink 4:57 AM – 28 Jan 2018

@NonGMOProject Shop Non-GMO Project shirts, hats, stickers and more at  ! ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:10 PM – 27 Jan 2018

@byzantinepower Trabzon, Antalya (ad infinitum) are lost cities of #Byzantium & the people of these cities still miss the golden days of rule of the #Byzantines. This is the time for #Byzantium to reclaim all lost lands. #OperationLabarum   Permalink 12:30 PM – 27 Jan 2018

@Marcellenassif   Cretan dance. Well if this is not separated at birth with Lebanese dabke! Permalink 11:43 AM – 27 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Correlates with the J2 look.   Permalink 10:11 AM – 27 Jan 2018

@nntaleb We are not doing any press “promotion” for the book! No books to reviewers (except in France). Why? Just to verify that the Media is something of the past. Permalink 7:18 AM – 27 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Amazon finally discounted SKIN IN THE GAME. I will buy a copy myself.   Permalink 6:24 AM – 27 Jan 2018

@_skininthegame @nntaleb just finished SilentRisk – a masterpiece. To those who criticize his work as “pop”, take a look at SilentRisk. All the math behind Incerto is there. A technical tour de force on decision making under opacity. Permalink 4:43 AM – 27 Jan 2018

@EricRWeinstein Did @OwenBenjamin crack this wide open in his analysis of one photo? Are 10 men in ties distorting our sense that everyone who doesn’t agree with them is worthy of ridicule? When do these guys appear in open unscripted conditions? Never? Permalink 5:33 PM – 26 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Not the point. What the entertainer/bullshitvendor @SamHarrisOrg calls “science” isn’t rigorous science but low-grade scientism. Science doesn’t make overreaching claims on how to act outside its narrow domain. Permalink 11:39 AM – 25 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Problem CC252 from @CruxMath #FigureThat #math #probability Permalink 11:26 AM – 25 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3am nshtghl 3laya.   Permalink 9:29 AM – 25 Jan 2018

@dougvk this distinction between rationality, “rationality”, science, scientism, belief, risk, and skin-in-the-game cleanly separated a lot of ideas i’ve been playing around with. @nntaleb always thought provoking, but this one especially:   Permalink 9:10 AM – 25 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) Which is why those self-styled “scholars” aren’t scholars but derivative academic rent-seeking rats. Better to define yourself as “flaneur”. Permalink 7:43 AM – 25 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) Likewise things that have “democratic” in them, s.a. “democratic republic of Korea/China, etc…” or “Democratic Party” of U.S. aren’t democratic but narrowly elitist. Permalink 1:26 PM – 24 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Any form of direct harm inflicted on innocent citizens is immoral, no different from other war crimes.   Permalink 12:06 PM – 24 Jan 2018

@nntaleb NYT is lauching its ad slogan: “Truth”. Those in the business of saying the truth don’t advertise that they are saying the truth, except by taking risks in saying the truth. Remember that the Soviet’s offical organ was called Pravda, “Truth” in Russian. Permalink 12:04 PM – 24 Jan 2018

@AndrejDrapal When @nntaleb exposes “soviet harward method” in #Antifragile, he makes my day almost perfect. The rest of the book takes away “almost”. Permalink 11:51 AM – 24 Jan 2018

@AlphaBetaBlogFR “Plus on s’élève au niveau macro, et moins les gens deviennent responsables de leurs actes, c’est un phénomène caractéristique de nos États modernes.” Un entretien passionnant avec @nntaleb, dont le dernier livre vient de sortir.   via @rajules Permalink 6:15 AM – 24 Jan 2018

@nntaleb First Interview about Skin in the Game: The French get it, (Translation)   Permalink 5:10 AM – 24 Jan 2018

@nntaleb In the 1864 census of Mount Lebanon Shiites were not counted as Muslims but “Metwalis”.   Permalink 3:49 AM – 24 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Jouer sa peau   Permalink 2:59 AM – 24 Jan 2018

@nntaleb “Val” in the email is Val Giddings who spent time trying to deligitimize me on the web after our Precautionary Principle paper.   Permalink 3:00 PM – 23 Jan 2018

@GreenRupertRead Aha. The great Chesterton appears to have anticipated @nntaleb in creating the #IYI concept: #IntellectualYetIdiot   Permalink 9:05 AM – 23 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Antioch is the capital of Ancient Syria More Greek than the Greek   Permalink 7:19 AM – 23 Jan 2018

@nntaleb International Association of Name Droppers (IAND) ( What I called the Davos WEF in The Black Swan) Permalink 3:30 AM – 23 Jan 2018

@MarcosCarreira Exact Solutions for Choosing the Largest Number:   @CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb The optimal ks are linear on log[n], much higher than the (1-1/n)-like heuristics; includes code to generate (and solve) automatically the probability equations for any n ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 5:54 PM – 22 Jan 2018

@Sophiam1973 psychpathologisation – when someone accuses another of having a psychopathology to win an argument or for other bad faith reasons. Neologism created by @nntaleb #neologism #psychopathologise Permalink 12:31 PM – 22 Jan 2018

@thackerpd The trolls will now start accusing you of wanting children in Africa to starve, because corporate mergers will feed the world’s hungry.   Permalink 11:44 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Ma fi sha3b bala lghgha Ma fi lghgha bala 2adab Ma fi 2adab bala ktebe Permalink 9:04 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@philomag “Jouer sa peau. Asymétries cachées dans la vie quotidienne” @BellesLettresEd : Nassim Nicholas @nntaleb remet à sa manière la vertu et l’éthique de la responsabilité au cœur de toute entreprise dans   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:31 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Imbecile, it is MY Haplogrop. Permalink 7:02 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb More interesting than his commie rant, Bernie Sanders is J2 Haplogroup. Now J2b? Does someone know the subclade?   Permalink 6:39 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Permalink 5:35 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Good point. Avoid the verbalistic. Have the discipline to define a Ponzi scheme. Then you can see that Bitcoin, no matter what “bubble” characteristics you impart to it, will not be a Ponzi. And avoid reading ANY commentary on Bitcoin by a NYT subscriber or a tenured econ Prof.   Permalink 5:08 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Baddna na3réf kif niktob l-lbnéné (amma nsammi ken3ané). Ktébé “B Ed of Procrustes” la7 yetla3 bil-lbnéné.   Aya 7arf? @turlevnon @faleflix @oldlevantine Permalink 3:41 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Baddna na3réf kif niktob l-lbnéné (amma nsammi ken3ané). Ktébé “B Ed of Procrustes” la7 yetla3 bil-lbnéné.   Aya 7arf? @turlevnon @faleflix @oldlevantine Permalink 3:41 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Moved my Bitcoin piece to Medium   Permalink 3:08 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I just published “Bitcoin”   Permalink 3:01 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@davidboxenhorn Any employee of the IRS or Justice Department who loses records that they are required to keep, should face the same consequences as a civilian that loses records that the IRS or Justice Department requires them to keep. Skin in the game @nntaleb Permalink 12:20 AM – 22 Jan 2018

@nntaleb It is not rice but vermicelli pasta cooked like riceà   Permalink 5:07 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@OneCuriousLemur Definitely. I found a lot of value in arguments from @nntaleb that science was largely a hobby for most of its history. The directed-funding structure and emphasis on publications perverts the process into one of trying to be the loudest chick in the nest Permalink 4:59 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Best squid ink Permalink 4:43 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink Permalink 4:36 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Hahahahahaha. Since klueless Massimo @mpigliucci did not withdraw his piece, here is something putting him (and you all) back in your place.   Permalink 2:44 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb cc:@LuisBun Permalink 2:06 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Yes. Other techniques than PCA in information theory. But all work, sort of, in giving probabilistic information. If we do find earlier Macedonians of some Most Common Ancestor, game is easier.   Permalink 2:03 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Here is Pierre Zalloua’s @PZalloua version using ~complete DNA. It includes Bronze age DNA, which is significant to show that what we had in Roman times was not too different from what we got today (Brownian Bridge reasoning). Permalink 12:26 PM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 7) The hockey stick represents the payoff of the option, which is why Deep Learning feels so natural to deriv. traders, but not overeducated and miseducated social scientists. Permalink 6:40 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 6) So this is a great way to show how the framework used by nudgeboy @R_Thaler & other psychology BS vendors is unrigorous & why their “science” is pseudo-science. Machine learning, just like Antifragile, is based on the logic of organic reality. Permalink 6:35 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 5) So whatever in the world is robustly (and locally) forecastable NEEDS to fold into that decomposition, as aid. Permalink 6:17 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 4) Even more exciting is that I wrote 2 books Dynamic Heding & Antifragile on same convex-concave decomposition. So I am sooooooooooooo thrilled to see that Machine Learning is based on convexity. My medical chapter in AF makes the applications to Medical Diagnostics obvious! Permalink 6:14 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb My grandmother did not want me to forget this. Shiites were also routinely massacred. Permalink 6:04 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) This explains why machine learning “forecasting” works: it doesn’t forecast events but series of layered rules, at different scales. EXCITING! Permalink 5:56 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) Both methods aim at getting rid of the VERBALISTIC: most risks, exposures, forecasts in the real world are not expressed into simple words, because of nonlinearity. This is my bone with verbagiastic @PTetlock. Machine learning transcends that via same atomic hockey sticks. Permalink 5:55 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 1) The Uncanny resemblance betw. DEEP LEARNING and my CONVEX PAYOFF FUNCTION, the *Dynamic Hedging* decomposition’s approach. Statistical machine learning decomposes functions into hockey sticks (similar to figure on left). So do we break every payoff into sums of atomic ones. Permalink 5:53 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Not the point. People bothered by my message disguize their complaint as *personal advice* which I find odious. Permalink 5:45 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb What makes you think I care about your advice? Permalink 5:32 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb So minorities thrived in an environment because there was the EXACT opposite to the “equal opportunity” act. Which is why I believe Social Justic Warriors always produce the exact opposite to what they seem to want. Permalink 5:12 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb My grandmother explained to me why many family members were doctors, & almost all doctors in the Ottoman empire were Christians (or Jews). “They won’t kill you if you can heal them”, she said. Permalink 5:08 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb And the replies by some Social Justice IYIs that these minorities were “oppressors” are BSp. Minorities went into trade because they were discriminated against for government/military jobs. They were DHIMMIS, for God’s sake! Antifragility: stressors made them stronger. SJ idiots. Permalink 4:59 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb It is Harald Cramer. He refined the RUIN problem. (revamping SILENT RISK for lecture notes)ér   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:23 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR: Who is the true father of the distinction thin-tails/fat tails? Permalink 3:37 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb If after one year of Trump you aren’t convinced that the entire class of today’s “intellectuals” has no grasp of reality, you too have no grasp of reality.   Permalink 1:49 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Elephant in the room. The Coptic minority, past 20 y’s exodus, represented the majority of merchants & professionals in Egypt. Bagdad was 55% Jewish. Losing disproportionately skilled minorities explains the relative decline of Turkey & Egypt.   Permalink 1:18 AM – 21 Jan 2018

@Cockneywonder For some people it’s money, for others it’s a femme fatale, but they hook you with squid ink, these Ruskies are just too cunning. Permalink 2:16 PM – 20 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I also vehemently deny the rumor that I understand Russian. I deny. Permalink 4:07 AM – 20 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Moscow had 6 minutes sunshine in December Permalink 4:00 AM – 20 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Conspiracy theorists: I am transiting in Moscow airport. 3 hours… They had something like only a few minutes of sunshine in past month. Permalink 3:46 AM – 20 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I remained silent with verbagiastic Tetlock’s @Ptetlock comments about my election forecasting (to other clueless psychologists) without even getting basic stuff about probability and forecasting. No more.   Permalink 2:34 AM – 20 Jan 2018

@0xAC1DBA5E A picture is worth a thousand words. This is so much better than all the anecdotal political bullshit from pseudo academics. Permalink 2:17 AM – 20 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The genetic map of mankind looks like a triangle with 3 corners, points on only 2 sides, & almost nothing in the interior. The vertical axis counts less than the horizontal one as the 1st PC explains the bulk of the distance. Permalink 7:38 PM – 19 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath #6 – an interesting probability problem   Permalink 4:22 PM – 19 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The method is explained very very well on Wiki Permalink 11:45 AM – 19 Jan 2018

@nntaleb To understand the Mary Beard BBC cartoon problem, here is a 2-D genetic distances of the world (PCA); the map seems to work (if you are confused about Peru, it is not without a reason). Wonder if someone has seen a 3-D PCA cc:@PZalloua Permalink 11:23 AM – 19 Jan 2018

@normonics the irony of the responses that only no SITG academics would utter. like saying there is ‘surprisingly little evidence’ that survival (and non-survival) plays a role in evolution. Permalink 5:50 AM – 19 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 4) For Context about #nudgeboy’s misunderstanding the very concept of Skin in the Game. Permalink 12:40 AM – 19 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) Other problem nudgeboy @R_Thaler holds (in support of verbiagiastic @PTetlock) that a psychological experiment can show … how can hide risk? How can a psychological experiment reveal RISK HIDING and the Bob Rubin Trade? Who is he fooling? Permalink 12:08 AM – 19 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) I had some restraint with @PTetlock for past years until yesterday when he used the “best-selling author” to dismiss my technical arguments; Finance professor @WGoetzmann did same with”airport books”). Given what I know about his probabilistic understanding, Tetlock is done. Permalink 11:42 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) If you want to understand why @r_thaler (who blocked me on Twitter) keeps nervously defending ag. my criticism, remember the effect of getting the “Nobel” on one’s insecurity. R_Thaler is short volatility.   Permalink 11:29 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Mr @PTetlock isn’t getting that if it is “hardly new”, WHY is he conflating ensemble probabilities & time series probabilities? Why is he ignoring absorbing barriers/tails? So either it is not new & he is totally INCOHERENT or … Keep digging.   Permalink 10:47 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@CgGeagea “The historical trick is that it was the Ottomans who were Francophile! (Actually Greco-Roman-phile).” @nntaleb   Permalink 10:08 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) This list summarizes what’s wrong with behavioral economics. A more expanded piece to follow. Permalink 3:19 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) In fat tailed environments, or under trial-and-error convex payoff, how often one is wrong has no bearing for those w/#skininthegame. The payoff from tail success will dominate. Pretty much everything done by psychologists on probability, @rthaler or others, is pure garbage Permalink 3:18 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The opposite. There is no payoff. Forecasters forecast success probability not payoff from success, hence will game the system. In the real world what matters is what you get when right, not HOW OFTEN right. See Silent Risk or the stories in INCERTO, part. Fooled by Randomness.   Permalink 3:00 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) ALPHA MALE PRIVILEGE Trump’s voters have no illusion: they elected an alpha male with the “defects” that come with it. They knew they were’nt electing a pope, a schoolteacher, or an Ottoman eunuch. Permalink 12:42 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@nntaleb KPACIVO Permalink 12:13 AM – 18 Jan 2018

@salilstatistics Your summary @JGreenblattADL/@ADL_National is what is irresponsible. Only stating “70+% of extremist murders” are by white supremacists, with “only” 26% by Islamic extremists. And failing to note that 70+% of the population is White, while “only” 1% is Islamic. cc @nntaleb Permalink 8:24 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@normonics This guy is claiming there’s not much evidence that evolution works. SITG is necessary condition for evolution.   Permalink 7:11 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@pmaymin The @nytimes published my letter to the editor about @realDonaldTrump:   cc @nntaleb Also the slightly longer pre-edited version attached; main difference is USSR sentence. Which is better? ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:43 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@AStratelates I don’t know of any instance of Taleb ripping into someone who didn’t deserve it. Permalink 2:49 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@pauld1981 @nntaleb I doubt the research includes “dynamic repeated decisions”   Permalink 2:42 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) Why pple like @PTetlock can’t understand decisions and forecasting.   Permalink 2:21 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@nntaleb BS continues: He didn’t get SITG. SITG is a BS filter so those who have it are subjected to Darwinian selection/ absence of ruin. IT IS NOT EVALUATED FROM SINGLE ISOLATED DECISIONS, but from dynamic repeated decisions. Forecasters in words aren’t subjected to ruin.   Permalink 2:17 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) In other words, as Yogi Berra said: “You can’t tell them if they don’t know” Permalink 12:43 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Another example that those who don’t have skin in the game will never, never realize that skin in the game is the marker.   Permalink 12:37 PM – 17 Jan 2018

@nntaleb KA3AKCTAH Permalink 2:27 AM – 17 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The George Bush & Barack Hussain Obama administrations let Saudi Barbaria (our ally) brainwash a generation of Saudis into believing that Christians, Shiites, Atheists, Pagans, New Jersey pple & Zoroastrians are deviants.   Permalink 8:43 PM – 16 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Choosing the Largest Random Number   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:19 PM – 16 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 12) When I talk abt Lebanese war, I talk from #skininthegame & eyewitness: mortar shells in my bedroom, blood of victims on my clothes, disastrous finances, house blown up, family members as hostages, cargo boat rides to Cyprus… Won’t be lecktchured by some low IQ pseudolib. Permalink 2:16 PM – 16 Jan 2018

@nntaleb An intereting probability problem for the @CutTheKnotMath collection.   Permalink 1:43 PM – 16 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 11) This said I am now in an Armenian (Aleppo) restaurant in East Beirut. Permalink 11:17 AM – 16 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 10) “Histories” of the Lebanese war whitewash Palestinians and demonize Christians. They omit the Damour pogrom, in which Christians saw aims at ethnic cleansing similar to what was done to Armenians. Having learned from Armenians, Christians fought back. Permalink 11:38 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@bybloslaqlouq This is the best thread about the Lebanese civil war I have ever read. I’ve been waiting for decades for someone to say this…   Permalink 11:27 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 9) Meanwhile there has to be a minority rule harming the Palestinians by contagion. They displace independent Palestinians such as @saifedean (libertarian/localist) who, as libertarians, have for ethical mission to be model citizens. Permalink 3:42 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 8) The thread started with a “cool” remark. So being on the “left” and “pro-Palestinian” means condoning ethnic cleansing/ extermination, even genocide of Christian minorities in the Levant (not counting the Allawites and Shiites). These are typical “left” wing Arabist values Permalink 3:02 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb This is the Lindy Effect, ~3-5000 year old. In Semitic languages, it’s called a KTB (ketubah, kiteb), a standard marriage contract (which can be time-defined).   Permalink 2:46 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@DrCirillo Little quiz I asked today. I have a bivariate discrete survival function, for which I know: – P(X≥ x,Y≥ y) – P(X≥ x, Y≥ y+1) – P(X≥ x+1, Y≥ y) – P(X≥ x+1, Y≥ y+1) What is P(X=x,Y=y)? Hint: P(X≥ x,Y≥ y) ≥ P(X≥ x+1, Y≥ y+1), etc. Permalink 2:44 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 7b) This said I think nobody should get involved into other people’s problems unless there is skin in the game. The Palestinians were victims of overall bad governance.   Permalink 2:34 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 7a) This anti-abstract, anti-monoscale, and anti-power against citizens and groups, is the theme of the (finally discounted) next book.   Permalink 2:31 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 6) Let me reexplain. I am a localist, a la Swiss, pro-subsidiarity; pple have the right to self-organize; be neighbors not roommates & let their municipality run its affairs; I am anti repressive top-down universalist system. Left/Right classifications are for pol-sci idiots. Permalink 2:17 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 5) I am tired of people pointing to doctored-up Wikipedia pages of massacres AGAINST Palestinians, downplaying the trigger of first POGROMS (s.a. Damour) BY Palestininans? Similar to the Syrian war propaganda making it look like Evil gov vs Jihadi Saints. Permalink 1:45 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 4) I am a child of the Lebanese civil war. Before the war I had been stopped by Palestinian at roadblocks & received gratuitous abuse by their “soldiers” simply because I was a 15 year old Lebanese (Christian). It was common. We were FED up #Skininthegame not some pseudolib BS. Permalink 1:35 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) In 100 years of Armenian presence in Lebanon, all you hear are reports of an industrious community that tried to help. As to Palestinians’ model: biting the hands that fed them HAS BEEN their modus operandi. They did the same in Koweit, siding w/Saddam against their hosts. Permalink 1:15 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) It was a declared objective for Arafat that “the road to Jerusalem goes through (Maronite stronghold) Jounieh”. Permalink 1:12 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 1) You can’t BS w/history. Two Groups of refugees came to Lebanon. 1) Armenians & 2) Palestinians. Armenians tried to give more than they took. Palestinians tried to “liberate” their land by taking over Lebanon & exterminate Christians as “Crusaders/representatives of West”.   Permalink 1:10 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@shahidkamal I find half of what @nntaleb writes deeply uncomfortable and challenging, which is why I follow him. Permalink 12:57 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Exactly. You don’t try to change the place that invited you. Permalink 12:35 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb For those slow in getting the point about what my aphorism means   Permalink 12:02 PM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb When immigration is done by single individuals, it is immigration. When done by groups, it is invasion. Permalink 11:31 AM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb This #Beirut film is no different from “Borat” meant to be about Kazakhstan, in which the cast was mostly Romanian Romas speaking Hebrew. Permalink 8:36 AM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The movie #Beirut was filmed in Morocco with NO Lebanese cast and not a single connection to Beirut other than the name. Permalink 6:11 AM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Largely p-hacking, among other crap.   Permalink 3:26 AM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Best Twitter (and general) strategy: block any person psychopathologizing another, particularly when there is political divergence. (Use if accusations s.a. “narcissist”, “inf/superiority complex”, etc.) Remember: psychology is junk science. Permalink 2:15 AM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 1:54 AM – 15 Jan 2018

@nntaleb It just hit me from @MTayyabAhmed’s remark that indeed you don’t really exist if you are not free in something.   Permalink 3:50 PM – 14 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink Phoenician style in Central Phoenicia Permalink 11:04 AM – 14 Jan 2018

@EHSANI22 Mosaic flooring discovered near Hama (oqairabat) as Syrian Army was clearing mines. Writing seems dedicated to Saint Alexander and to a most respectful bishop named Evangelus. ΕΠΙΤΟΥΑΓΙΟΥΚΑΙΕΠΙΣΚΗΜΩΝ ΑΛΕΞΑΝΔΡΟΥΤΟΥΟΣΙΟΤΑΤΟΥΠΕΡΙΚΑΜΜΟΥΚΑΙΤΟΥΕΥΛΑΒΕΣΤΑΤΟΥΕΥΑΝΓΕΛΛΟΥΕΥΞΑΜΕΝ” Permalink 6:35 AM – 14 Jan 2018

@JosephChimienti Reading antifragile by @nntaleb and says a man’s only free when he judges with full sincerity. Must call a spade a spade. Permalink 5:26 AM – 14 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Every single item at the Sunday extended family Lunch in Amioun has an indigenous name. No Arabic. Permalink 4:05 AM – 14 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Stable definition of Communist = Highly Selective Memory   Permalink 4:02 AM – 14 Jan 2018

@nntaleb A new version of “No, Lebanese is not a ‘dialect’ of Arabic”. Truly, Semitic linguists don’t know how to categorize.   Permalink 2:28 AM – 14 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Denial being of course a necessary but insufficient condition. Permalink 2:12 PM – 13 Jan 2018

@nntaleb No rumor is true until officially denied.   Permalink 1:43 PM – 13 Jan 2018

@Spfannenschmidt “Le courage est la seule vertu que l’on ne peut pas feindre.” NN Taleb @nntaleb Jouer sa Peau, p268   Permalink 6:02 AM – 13 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Sam Walters’ Four Questions   #FigureThat #math #algebra with thanks to @SamuelGWalters ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 2:37 PM – 12 Jan 2018

@nntaleb If there us to a piece of advice from me you want to remember, take the following: Never use Google Maps in Beirut. Never. Permalink 9:26 AM – 12 Jan 2018

@MarcosCarreira Mathematica notebook and converted PDF available here:   partitions*multinomials=>compositions*(generalised derangements)=>possible sequences Permalink 3:48 PM – 11 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I’ve plan in 2018 to 1) be more blunt, 2) be much, much, much more stubborn, and 3) have more squid ink.   Permalink 2:50 PM – 11 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Parigi Permalink 12:19 PM – 11 Jan 2018

@nntaleb In Paris with @MarcosCarreira arguing about the most “elegant” solution. He is using overlapping tuples, I am using the Multinomial distribution. (Marcos is doing a PhD in Math Finance at Ecole Polytechnique) Permalink 9:55 AM – 11 Jan 2018

@Spfannenschmidt French term of the day : attrape-couillon — Jouer sa Peau par NN Taleb @nntaleb p223   Permalink 9:44 AM – 11 Jan 2018

@nntaleb “Jouer sa Peau” dans Philosophie magazine. Permalink 3:41 AM – 11 Jan 2018

@PZalloua Phoenicians were explorers, not conquerors! @nntaleb   Permalink 11:27 AM – 10 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The unfortunate part of breaking a fast: makes you less aggressive, less active in BS debunking, less of a hunter. You need to act *while* fasting. I had on my agenda setting @jordanbpeterson straight/ teaching him a lesson on reasoning, science & ethics; becomes less urgent. Permalink 5:55 AM – 10 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Sokrates used to walk around the house delaying his meal as he held that hunger was the best seasoning. (#Antifragile) Fasting can turn any meal into a Michelin 3 star. Permalink 4:54 AM – 10 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Bone marrow. It makes fasting easy when you know the exact reward. Permalink 4:42 AM – 10 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Paris: breaking the second fast (40h) Permalink 4:27 AM – 10 Jan 2018

@melodielaggaffe A video by @nntaleb on how to write #Lebanese. Answering the question why Said Akl alphabet didn’t catch up immediately without even trying   Permalink 3:46 PM – 9 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Group Russian Roulette – The Easy Part #FigureThat #math #probability Permalink 1:16 PM – 9 Jan 2018

@nntaleb And the best nutritionist is your great-grandmother.   Permalink 12:43 PM – 9 Jan 2018

@lpbreva This will keep you sane and will help you ignore all the advice you’ll get about “validating” your idea. @nntaleb put it nicely in a recent tweet: “Social scientists want to ‘learn statistics’ w/o understanding probability.”   Permalink 11:09 AM – 9 Jan 2018

@TheBondFreak @bigfatsurprise That could be one of the most ignorant statements I’ve ever read. @nntaleb would have a field day with that guy. Permalink 9:48 AM – 9 Jan 2018

@JMJalel_H @nntaleb mentions #Libya 2011 to explain his new book’s title—“Skin in the Game”: “If you’re a #Paris official with a nice house in the countryside & a taste for ski vacations, then of course it is very easy for you to be in favor of a military intervention by #NATO in #Libya.”   Permalink 9:13 AM – 9 Jan 2018

@nntaleb How to write Lebanese (in Lebanese)   via @YouTube Permalink 8:33 AM – 9 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Une breve présentation de mon nouveau livre deja en librairie   Permalink 7:49 AM – 9 Jan 2018

@Darius1296 So the correct way to use R^2 is to theorise a relationship between two variables first, and then use R^2 to test that theory? The fallacy is to try out every single curve and pick the one that maximises R^2. Permalink 3:15 AM – 9 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Solution for the Christmas binge: Fast 45 hours, visit the gym during the fast, and you are done. Permalink 4:56 PM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb So we can call it the Tolstoy-Friedman rule. Milton Friedman (who was a remarkable statistician) used to tell students: “If you don’t see it in Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), it’s not there.” Permalink 3:09 PM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb In other words, as Tolstoy told us: “You can be linear in only one way, nonlinear in zillions of ways.” Permalink 12:46 PM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb A detail every appliedprobastatisticists needs to spot. Whenever it’s not a straight line, R^2 cannot be what is claimed because we lose degrees of freedom from fittin *which* nonlinearity. Insight from Milton Friedman. @DrCirillo and I will diskuss in our new book.   Permalink 12:40 PM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) The point is not that he thought that Debt =>Wealth, but that what he had constituted a definitive “scientific proof” and that, to him, the problem was settled. Permalink 11:42 AM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Nice to see legal theorists catching up to the minority ruuuuuuule.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:42 AM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb His “proof” was: Debt was up => GDP/inventions went up. He could not get that, also “Smoking went up => GDP went up” or “pollution => GDP went up”. So I called him an idiot. Permalink 6:32 AM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I once called Michael Wolf (Trump’s biographer) a IDIOT to his face at a London dinner Q&A event 6 years ago. (He claimed having an “indisputable scientific proof” that debt “caused” prosperity, the industrial/technological revolutions…) @rorysutherland @Silva Permalink 6:24 AM – 8 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Antifragile: stress, and only stress improve bone density. 6 years later.   Permalink 7:13 PM – 7 Jan 2018

Bitcoin – It may fail but we now know how to do it | Medium

Bitcoin – It may fail but we now know how to do it

Which is why Bitcoin is an excellent idea. It fulfills the needs of the complex system, not because it is a cryptocurrency, but precisely because it has no owner, no authority that can decide on its fate. It is owned by the crowd, its users. And it has now a track record of several years, enough for it to be an animal in its own right.


Lebanese, Journalists, Dunning Kruger, New Jersey, Thaler, Questions, Donaldo, Tetlock, Probability, Orwell | Twitter


@nntaleb Yuuuuge point by Roger Makhlouf: We don’t quite and never had “ص”, “ض”, “ط” in Lebanese. It is just the “Basta aleph” Permalink 4:06 PM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb One see an explanation to the statement by Jelinek: “when you fire a linguist, speech recognition improves”. Permalink 2:07 PM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Another solution to the marriage problem (added derivation for n \to \infty). Somehow 1/e pops up where you never expected it. Permalink 10:57 AM – 7 Jan 2018

@rjs This is what I love about Twitter. @nntaleb shared a video on classifying languages with dimensional reduction (PCA) instead of pre-cut categories. The task of escaping categories is pervasive. Eg is IKEA a furniture store; is Basecamp project mangement?   Permalink 9:41 AM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Explaining most of the problems   Permalink 8:47 AM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb A very useful heuristic, a potent filter: When someone criticizes you, train to immediately ask yourself: “Would I rather be him/her, or I’d rather be me?” before taking the remark at face value. It works wonders. #SkinintheGame Permalink 8:11 AM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 4) The heuristic is as follows: You know someone will side with Trump, not his detractor, REGARDLESS OF THE ARGUMENT, if the person would rather be Trump when he/she grows up than the detractor. Gabish?   Permalink 6:17 AM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Except when n=1 matters (large deviation in a Fat Tailed domain).   Permalink 6:12 AM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) I mean that when it’s cold, you try to do things to just stay warm (higher entropy), when it’s hot you try to be as inactive as possible (min entropy). And when you are Mediterranean you cheat with spezzatura. Permalink 6:07 AM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb CONJECTURE du jour: When I first encountered ENTROPY, years ago, it hit me that: + In cold countries, civilizations are built to maximize entropy, + In hot ones, civilizations are built to minimize entropy, + the Med, uniquely, does both or neither. (this morning, in Celsius) Permalink 5:35 AM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Answering @VergilDen Permalink 5:29 AM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The discussion that helped finish my book. We need a second @econtalk on religion, rationality & risk bearing. Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Work, Slavery, the Minority Rule, and Skin in the Game | EconTalk | Library of Economics and Liberty   Permalink 4:03 PM – 6 Jan 2018

@mikeandallie Today’s blog: Sharing Markov chains and the “COVFEFE” problem with kids:   #math #mathchat Permalink 1:59 PM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) Commentary by anyone who a) ruled out Trump ‘s election, b) thought mahket wd collapse if Trump elected c) thought Trump wd be impeached within 1y should be ignored. Can only use Krugman-style IYIS is Uber drivers or something requiring low understanding. Permalink 1:58 PM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) In other words, if reality continously delivers something that doesn’t “make sense” to you, it is *you* that you need to worry about. Permalink 11:01 AM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 1) When a collection of journos getting around minimum wage call someone consistently successful “an idiot”, one is entitled to invoke Wittgenstein’s ruler: you don’t just use a ruler to measure the table, but the table to measure the ruler. (in Fooled by Randomness) Permalink 10:58 AM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I am declaring email bankruptcy. Starting from scratch. I have >2000 unread emails (from senders I don’t know). Permalink 7:50 AM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Another: is showing off a departure from virtue? Permalink 7:36 AM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Another question Permalink 7:27 AM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Never publicly refuse an award. Permalink 7:05 AM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb This may clear up that linguistic classifications, while useful in a domain, are too binary for cultural distances. Permalink 6:35 AM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Because people of courage (which includes Nader) are not after awards.   Permalink 6:16 AM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink. Permalink 6:07 PM – 5 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath The marriage problem   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:19 PM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb typo: I meant independent orthogonal components (PC) not PCAs Permalink 11:26 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The way to look at languages… Permalink 10:47 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Things I learned in 2017 1) Genetics: thet need a norm corrector for PCA maps. Similar to finance with STD->MAD. Permalink 6:54 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb and Ukraine! Permalink 6:38 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb And Georgia! Permalink 6:17 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Gives the exact same result as a computer putting n letters in n envelopes! (the derangement problem) @CutTheKnotMath   Permalink 5:29 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Friends into probability: this is very interesting thread as it gives totally counterintuitive results. Also same results as the derangement problem.   Permalink 5:25 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Second version of my article. Included among other things some miscategorization by Semitic linguistists.   Permalink 5:08 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Merry Christmas to my Armenian, Russian, and other nonGreek Orthodox friends. Permalink 5:03 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Linguists try to model on geneticists, but geneticists rely ONLY on independent PCAs. This idiot van Putten invoked Dunning-Kruger when he is unknowingly stepping on MY discipline, statistics. Permalink 4:55 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Never trust a journalist, even if she is your mother.   Permalink 1:42 PM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 15) And that abstract language nobody has seen called “proto-Arabic” is has to have Arabic in it , not Zwinglob, Schwing, or some other less offensive name, which would have made framing less effective. Permalink 12:06 PM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 14) The other politically motivated aspect of the discussion lies in adding “Arabic” as a designation (even if true): Lebanese “Arabic” not Lebanese “Semitic”,and not: Croatian Slavic, Ukrainian Slavic, Catalan Spanish, Norwegian Germanic, Russian Germanic…. Permalink 12:04 PM – 4 Jan 2018

@BrankoMilan So in Iran, Internet works to undermine the corrupt rulers. But in the US, internet works to elect Trump. Very interesting “liberal” logic. Permalink 9:20 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb A good predictor is someone who knows what not to predict. Permalink 8:51 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb A good predictor is someone who knows *what* to predict. Permalink 8:33 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@u_vakalate @nntaleb Sowell echoing #IYI concentration in non-#SITG environments?   Permalink 7:00 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Pronounciation is often areal diffusion (the French “r” doesn’t make it German) Permalink 6:58 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 13) Here @lameensouag nitpicking my list based on g->j, s<-> sh, k->kh, etc. pronounciations. But we say Yesou3 for Yeshou3 (Jesus) though from Aramaic (Arabic is 3issa), Juwwa from Aram. bgaw, etc. It would be classifying Mod. Hebrew as Germanic because w->v, 7->ch, p->ph. Permalink 6:19 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 12) This anachronism is paralleled by another “scholar” (@stephenniem supporter of him) who argued w/a straight face that we can call Islamic discoveries those by countries before Islam (“Islamic” discoveries by Ancient Egyptians, Asia Minor Greeks)   Permalink 5:52 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 11) So not even basic scientific evidential reasoning is needed, but just mere logic. Semitic linguistics is in need to adult supervision.   Permalink 4:01 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@Macaulayputra “Proto-Arabic”, along with “proto-Indo-European” appear to be the linguistic equivalent of non-existent “ether”. Foam used to arbitrarily fill in gaps in the respective theories. @bennedose Permalink 3:16 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 10) Keeps digging: defines some hypothetical language (never written) as Arabic based on cherry-picked rules, then classifies into it in a circular way. This plus lack of awareness of notion of “evidence” makes Semitic linguistics political propaganda.   Permalink 3:16 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath The coffee shop game   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 3:09 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 9) Mr Dunning-Kruger needs to learn some Hebrew   Permalink 3:09 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@VogonPoem This is not just a problem with Semitic linguistics, but with linguistics in general. 1) Too many sound-change laws made up on the fly 2) No evidence to support claims 3) Proto-languages cooked up with insufficient data points The entire PIE tree is suspect. Cc @bennedose   Permalink 7:46 PM – 3 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 8) PS- Moral of the story: if you even invoke the “Dunning Kruger effect” against someone as a way to degrade his knowledge of the subject matter, expect yours to be degraded. Permalink 6:19 PM – 3 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 7) This is it for now as Mr Marijn van Putten @phoenixnl no doubt needs to be establish accordance w/”scientific standards” first, his points later in accordance with rules of evidence. In other words, no BS vending. If he can. Good night, לילה טוב Permalink 6:11 PM – 3 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 6) Finally, as one can see Semitic linguistics is plagued with elementary rigor. Establishing intelligibility betw. Leb and Arabic doesn’t flow from ad nauseam repetition, but something called EVIDENCE. And distinguising languages on the bases of 2-5 rules is called “fitting” Permalink 6:08 PM – 3 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 5) So main argument Leb comes from some abstract unseen “proto-Arabic” is the commonality of a negation “ma” which appears to be Indo-European (Anatolian?). Is it me or a strong, dizzing smell of BS Vending? (* ma is also in Bibilical Heb, but ignore.)   Permalink 6:06 PM – 3 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 4) Even low-IQ Arabists throw their main arguments first *for effect* so I guess retracting it … Other main argument is ad hocness of “varieties” some of which will amuse us next, in (5)   Permalink 6:03 PM – 3 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The point is that 1) is such a definition of dialect in use? 2) is it narrow jargon? 3) it is BS vending? Permalink 3:26 PM – 3 Jan 2018

@nntaleb So I assume that critique fails minimum sci. standards 1) @phoenixnl: “If Lebanese is a dialect of classical Arabic, classical Arabic is also a dialect of Lebanese.” (they aren’t mutually intelligible) 2) Ad hoc (call “proto-Arabic” whateveryoulike)   Permalink 3:05 PM – 3 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The slow-thinking people of “prediction markets” forget we have the real thing called called financial markets, in which one receives an “organic payoff”. Just another instance where academia is decades even centuries behind practice.   Permalink 8:23 AM – 3 Jan 2018

@profnfenton We have explained some other reasons why this use of statistics does NOT ‘highlight misunderstandings of risk’ and ‘illuminate the bigger picture’ as claimed by @RoyalStatSoc See:   Permalink 6:35 AM – 3 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Answers to this piece can help understand why Arabism has been such a glorious project, or why some countries resist economic & intellectual development. Permalink 10:12 AM – 2 Jan 2018

@nntaleb We need some comments by @QifaNabki & by the clown & Arabist @KarlreMarks Permalink 9:16 AM – 2 Jan 2018

@nntaleb   Permalink 7:07 AM – 2 Jan 2018

@Skeptical_Arab Saddest thing I’ve read this year   Permalink 6:53 AM – 2 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Actually the 3 smartest things I did in 2017 were in New Jersey. Once to meet @CutTheKnotMath Once to meet @HarryDCrane and participate in his probability workshop Once to eat auntie anne’s pretzel dogs (next favorite thing after squid ink). Permalink 6:34 AM – 2 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I just published “No, Lebanese is not a ‘dialect’ of Arabic”   Permalink 5:36 AM – 2 Jan 2018

@Extrachelle I deleted it cz I didn’t want to hurt psychologists feelings Permalink 3:47 PM – 1 Jan 2018

@nntaleb This fellow is not uncommon. People from Turkic republics are brainwashed to fughedaboud Armenian/Syriac genocides, ethnic cleansing of Greeks, and treatment of Kurds.   Permalink 7:51 AM – 1 Jan 2018

@tripoli187 True people don’t realise it was Turkish nationalist secularist known as the “young Turks” that began the killings on Armenians etc not the traditional religious ottomans Permalink 6:58 AM – 1 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Exactly. Thaler doesn’t know that “mental accounting” is needed for convexity of payoffs, that in a complex domain aggregate rationality diff from indiv. But he knows that myopic loss aversion doesn’t work under fat tails, that ecological effects need to be integrated. Permalink 5:56 AM – 1 Jan 2018

@nntaleb There are not “incomplete”, they give results BACKWARDS. Permalink 5:44 AM – 1 Jan 2018

@nntaleb When you try to sell 2-dimensional “solutions” to a deeper >3-D problem, and trying to make it pass for science, Mr Thaler @r_thaler, it is not called “idiot”, it is not called “unrigorous”, it is not called “distortion”. It is simply called bullshit vending. Permalink 5:38 AM – 1 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Say it the way it is.   Permalink 5:02 AM – 1 Jan 2018

@nntaleb One warning: Secularization in Turkey came with extreme, murderous nationalism. When you abruptly remove religion, you get a lot of stuff: the mind doesn’t like a vacuum. #Iran Permalink 2:55 AM – 1 Jan 2018

@nntaleb FAT TONY 101: In real world ecologies, questions convey some information about the answer/context. Nobody asks you a random question. But the main problem is not there: providing reduced static approaches to dynamic decisions, such as survival probability.   Permalink 12:00 PM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb FAT TONY 101: In real world ecologies, questions convey some information about the answer/context. Nobody asks you a random question. But the main problem is not there: providing reduced static approaches to dynamic decisions, such as survival probability.   Permalink 12:00 PM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb So from coments it looks more like regimes give concessions BECAUSE they are doomed anyway. More of a signal. Permalink 10:59 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@RonPaulInstitut US foreign policy in a nutshell – bipartisan interventionism: Permalink 8:22 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb SPECULATION: A previously inflexible regime is doomed when it starts giving *partial* concessions/reform. + Gorbachev + Iranian (1st) rev. + Russian rev. + Assad’s release of Islamist prisoners + French rev. More examples? Counteramples? Permalink 7:55 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb I automatically block: 1) Sophists 2) Serial nitpickers –they kill dialogue by diverting it 3) Lobbyists (Monsanto, think tanks funded by Saudi Barbaria) 4) Pple who answer “stick to your discipline” instead of counterargument 5) Someone abusing language w/”racist”, “nazi”, etc. Permalink 6:17 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Answering another Twitter Q. Permalink 6:10 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Answering a Twitter fellow. Permalink 6:04 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 3) This is an application of the minority rule: a small minority gives the accent. Permalink 3:39 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 2) I am writing in Levantine and realized there is a clustering into 2 “formal” accents, Beirut and Damascus. Permalink 3:29 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb SECULATIVE PHILOLOGY DUJOUR Language follow prestige & by mimicry take accent of dominant class. Hebrew: Ashkenazi accent (stripped of gutturals). Even young Seph use it. Leb: now Beirut upper class. Syria: most the “Shami” Damascus accent. French (Touraine=>Paris), Italian… Permalink 3:20 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb En vente aujourd’hui   Permalink 2:28 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@jeitoapp “There’s no cost in thinking Donald Trump is an incompetent buffoon until you have to run against him” @nntaleb @ScottAdamsSays   Permalink 4:52 PM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 8 years left.   Permalink 2:18 PM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Jouer sa peau, (en francais)   Permalink 1:39 PM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Questio 4. Can you exchange social graces with a lobbyist, or an employee of a foreign funded think tank, say the @MiddleEastInst ? Permalink 10:20 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Questio 3. Should universities help their students by harming the collective? Permalink 9:38 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb I am very, very confused with Donaldo’s foreign policy. That, along with the scaling down of the State Dept, is the only recent piece of good news.   Permalink 9:25 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Compiling cases for the application of skin in the game. Questions welcome. Permalink 7:32 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 4) All is not GEOPOLITICS. Local problems are solved by locals.   Permalink 6:42 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 3) This said, that while Saudi Arabian citizens (like Egypt) are obsessively antiWest (& antisemitic) while their government is friendly to West/Israel, the reverse is true for Iran. Permalink 6:33 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 2) Iran is mostly focused on local geopolitics, support of Shiites in area. Saudi Barbaria spreads intolerant Salafism in Europe, Asia, everywhere, funding terrorisms worldwide & financing headcutters. Plus DIRECTLY exterminating Christians & Alawis in Syria, Copts in Egypt, Permalink 6:28 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb We all agree theocracies are incompatible with Western values, but Iran does not fund “terrorism” abroad/ spread “madrassah” in Europe & Asia, rather “friendly” Saudi Barbaria. How many of the attacks in West were done by Shiites?   Permalink 5:28 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DU JOUR (Closing on some open problems): The “ma” in Western Levantine (“ma fi”) ~ always used for negation does not appear to come from Arabic (where it is rare, compared to “la”), but a relic from a more ancient, local root, possibly Indo European.   Permalink 4:03 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@CharlesLogan @CutTheKnotMath had you ever seen this problem before? A computer puts n letters randomly into n envelopes. Find the probability that at least one of the letters reaches its intended destination. Find the limit when n tends to infinity. Permalink 2:51 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 5) Again I am NOT proposing a solution, just positing an ENIGMA, so please no overinterpretation. Things can be random, papers may be disproved, ideas can be refreshed, researchers might be stretching for pub. But it is strange to find 2 gnostic creeds so far apart. Gabish? Permalink 12:12 PM – 29 Dec 2017

@oldlevantine Rarely have @DanielPipes’ prognostications led astray: Always unsentimental, always frightening & premonitory, but always spot on. Yesterday the #Assyrian and #ArmenianGenocide, now the #Copts; #Maronites #Jews & others will follow. Middle East emptied of its #FirstNations. Permalink 11:01 AM – 29 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Which is why spreading sources of pollution brings portfolio effects.   Permalink 10:30 AM – 29 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 4) Something started buzzing in my head when, upon visiting Ireland, I surprised myself by describing the people as “blond Mediterraneans”. Then I saw in a bookstore a book on Druids… Permalink 8:55 AM – 29 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 3/ When you read “Middle East”, ignore, it’s a mistake common in papers bef 2015. Means East Med (Anatolia/Levant). Another strangeness is the Galatians who were Celts in Asia Minor (St Paul to the Galatians). Finally @financequant thinks like an Anatolian Greek. Permalink 8:17 AM – 29 Dec 2017

@nntaleb You need an agggggressive mind like @holland_tom for such enigmas. Permalink 8:12 AM – 29 Dec 2017

@nntaleb ENIGMA DU JOUR: Why do the Irish & Druze have similar creed: + Only Druids/Sheikh 3aql initiated to mysteries + Belief in reincarnation + Gnosticism + Other similarities Now genetics show both gene flow Anatolia => Ireland & Anatolian origin of Druze. Permalink 8:10 AM – 29 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Because people would also suddenly feel the urge to lend (& take the risk) without reward. Salafism attracts people with severe DEFECT of reasoning.   Permalink 5:44 AM – 29 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Politics right-left may cancel out. But the biggest problem is corporates targeting one individual, s. a. Monsanto et al. (Ketchum) harrassing me since my precautionary principle, with an organized smear campaign. I am antifragile, other people aren’t.   Permalink 4:51 AM – 29 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Last summer, after rereading my Lindy chapter, to be consistent with my Skin in the Game principle, I threw away almost ALL my social science & books written by recent academics, except for 80% of history & 100% mathematical subjects. 4 carloads of books. (Eco in was salvaged) Permalink 1:09 PM – 28 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath A cyclic inequality on unit interval   #FigureThat #math #algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:19 PM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb LINDY at WORK: The general idea is to work in the presence of real texts (mostly in the original) that remind you of Lindy, instead of the jelly compotte of academic wailing. Not a single line of the SITG was written in the “other” library with contemporary marmelade. Permalink 12:08 PM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb and Spanish. Permalink 9:24 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb By my writing desk: Books in Aramaic, Syriac, Hebrew, Arabic, French, Greek, Latin, (Medieval) Italian, English, randomly arranged. Permalink 9:23 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Dear @BretWeinstein, my friend. If you use the “listen, I have the same values as you, I am not a Nazi” route, they will destroy you. If you call them “repressive neoStalist fake-lib sexist racist crap” (why they are), they will cower. Gabish?   Permalink 8:21 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb No, books will not make you understand Trump. Told an interviewer: “The man-with-a-library in me fails to understand Trump. The souk trader in me has no trouble understanding Trump”.   via @voxdotcom Permalink 7:45 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The more complex the world, the less you can grasp it from academic studies. Permalink 6:37 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb More lessons dujour: When you attack someone in person, do not BS about “imaginary” opponents When you are playing the academic game, don’t claim “pursuit of truth”, just lay low. PS: Nonbinary aspect of realworld proba publ. in Dynamic Hedging, 1997.   Permalink 6:33 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Hon xam jarreb “Lebanese Language Institute” hayyem kamen.   Permalink 4:41 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 3am tarjem “Bed of Procrustes” 3al lébnéné (kin3ané/finy2é jdid). Fi shwayy ghalat (l “el” lezem tkun “l” mitlel finy2é) Permalink 4:39 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Probability in the Real World Lesson 101. Permalink 4:23 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Lesson of the day: If you want to portray yours truly as “loud HENCE wrong”, better 1) know what you are talking about, 2) not buzzword using big names like Bernoulli, & 3) not make elementary mistakes about probability.   Permalink 3:32 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Mush l 7ruf l3arabiyyé, bass l latiné bidoun l s3oubé. Permalink 3:25 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Complication/addition of fonts will fail. Sta3mel l 7ruf l 3adiyyé iza baddak l3alam yiktbo fiya.   Permalink 3:14 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Why verbal forecasting doesn’t work in the real world. Permalink 6:13 PM – 27 Dec 2017

@spartanwarriors #Greece – An imposing statue in Sparta of King Leonidas, who was approximately 60 years old when he died defending the pass of Thermopylae in 480 BC. (Photo: Anastasios Michalopulos) Permalink 3:49 PM – 27 Dec 2017

@mikeandallie (3/3) I am amazed by the sheer amount of fantastic math ideas that people share on twitter. I also appreciate the the efforts that people make to make complicated or new math accessible and easy (or at least easier) to understand for the masses. Excited for more in 2018. Permalink 3:06 PM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Goat cheese camembert & other chevres, a Christmas gift from @Idyllfarms Permalink 2:04 PM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Permalink 1:08 PM – 27 Dec 2017

@oldlevantine Dear Mr. Zogby, with all due respect, none of those foods you call “Arab” are “Arab.” There were Levantines, among them Jews, partaking of those foods millennia before exogenous Arabs expropriated them. Wanna talk about cultural genocide? Let’s start with your vaunted Arabs.   Permalink 12:24 PM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Why real world exposures CANNOT be described in words that map to a single probability Permalink 11:32 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb This might educate your Mr Tetlock on probability & why the utility framework doesn’t work under inseparabilities.   Permalink 11:25 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Mr Tetlock should have shown the full thread, including this, not just a pic. Clearly it is beyond “utilility”. Probability is a kernel not a discrete value.   Permalink 11:14 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 4) A reader got it:   Permalink 9:34 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb In simple words, why just talking abt probability without payoff is BS: You would never ride in a plane with a 1% probability of crash (~no pilot/flight attendant would be alive at .001%), but you would accept a scientific result that is 1% false. Permalink 9:16 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Quadratic Inequalities on [-1,1]   #math #algebra Thanks to @DMarghi ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:48 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 2) SILENT RISK: Probability is a kernel for decision, not an end product. Can’t discuss a kernel on its own. Permalink 7:22 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 1) This is the kind of BS about probability I spent my life fighting. Probability is meaningless unless one attaches a payoff/consequence. Verbalistic “assessments” include severity adjustments. INCERTO books sold 4.5 million copies & pple still make this mistake.   Permalink 7:17 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Koura valley where Byzantine garrisons were posted, using @PZalloua ‘s database. Permalink 4:52 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Actually, Salibi doubts Douahi’s account using my argument that the population of Amioun & Koura remained Greek-Orthodox to this day. (The problem with Salibi is elsewhere) Permalink 4:38 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 3) Most historical accounts are by Maronite bishop Stephanos Douaihi or the historian Kamal Salibi. Both are fabrications –like most of what Salibi wrote. Permalink 3:35 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 2) Another myth: the Maronites “won” the battle of Amioun. They were more likely pushed up Mount Leb. There is not a single Maronite church and not one Maronite family originating from the 15km Koura( χώρα) area betw Amioun & the Med. The border has not changed in 1200 years. Permalink 3:33 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 1) HISTORICAL DEBUNKING DUJOUR We are told Arabs invaded the Levant in 636. How did Byzantines battle Maronites in Amioun in 694? Truth is that most of the tension in coastal N. Levant was betw. Syrian-Greeks & Syriacs, not between them & Arabs. Arabs didn’t care abt. area. Permalink 3:21 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb For Christmas bought a v. Insightful book by my favorite twitter enemy @davidgraeber Permalink 3:27 PM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 2) Being attacked by 2 similar crowds: 1) Neo-Nazi “white” (butter) supremacists using the “Aryan” theory to downgrade Meds (except those who fit “classical civilization”) 2)”Pol correct” rewriters of history s.a. @wmarybeard binarizing Meds and Subsaharans in same “other” group Permalink 2:28 PM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Truth is that the “Europeans” (butter, not olive oil) never had a “RE-naissance”. They just had a naissance 600 y ago. The Nazis (& others bef) manufactured “Aryan” continuity linking themselves to the ancient world. Meanwhile the Meds took a nap (& still half-sleeping).   Permalink 12:06 PM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The problem can be solved very simply longhand but here is the more formal solution with code. Permalink 10:55 AM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb And these posts about Meds and fake chromoclassification by identity warriors keep showing in my feed from retweets. Basically if one puts BS on twitter (a public forum), you can expect debunking. Twitter is not just a place for motivational marmelades. Gabish? Permalink 10:25 AM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb For those who persist in separating Greeks “white” from Western Asians (now “nonwhite”), some news for you. Permalink 10:01 AM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Another ignorant who doesn’t get that the Meds (Aristotle, etc.) were not Northern Europeans.   Permalink 9:06 AM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Identity pple who chromoclassify are largely intellectually challenged.   Permalink 9:03 AM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR: You type random numbers on your (sturdy) phone in sequence; how many numbers are you expected to push before you obtain the remarkable “Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison number”, that is 47246?   Permalink 8:43 AM – 26 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath An integral identity #FigureThat #math #algebra #calculus Permalink 8:17 AM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb “Assuming” oil goes up… Saudi Barbaria is even more fragile than I thought.   Permalink 7:30 AM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 6) My first reaction to Trump is the same as Nero’s to Fat Tony: it takes some effort for an intellectual to warm up to like people who don’t read/respect books. (from Antifragile) Permalink 4:14 AM – 26 Dec 2017

@RGumby14 .@nntaleb check out this gift my gf got me for Christmas. She’s hoping I one day make it as a flaneur. #antifragile Permalink 8:23 PM – 25 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 5) Even if Trump became suddenly left-wing, he would still be hated by the Intellektchuals who would drum up arguments. Why? They obsessively hate @realDonaldTrump because he is both totally non-intellectual and doesn’t hide it. He makes intellktchuals feel irrelevant. Permalink 2:55 PM – 25 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The imbecile generalizes from single instances: he cites ONE book hence he knows ONE book. We shoud subject people in humanities to IQ tests.   Permalink 2:32 PM – 25 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 4) The idea of #skininthegame is that people judged by reality and P/L, instead of peers or supervisors, are vastly more open-minded. Permalink 1:05 PM – 25 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 3) Employed intellectuals, professional academics, and other slaves are rarely in love with thought & ideas. They are primarily in love with Orthodoxy. Permalink 12:40 PM – 25 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Time to start a mass reconversion of Western Syria (particularly urban areas) to Greek Orthodoxy? Remember that the New Testament was written in the (bad) Greek of Syria. With the advantage that you can wear jeans in GrecoSyrian churches.   Permalink 6:04 AM – 25 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Note on this Christmas day that the Leb “zi7” (as opposed to Maltese Linea, Arabic “5att) comes from Aramaic the language of Christ. Permalink 5:53 AM – 25 Dec 2017

@SamuelGWalters Holy mackerel, look what I found by accident. (Just came up during my calculations. Don’t yet have a proof.) #math #fun Permalink 11:35 PM – 24 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath An Easy Cyclic Inequality And a Remark   #FigureThat #math #inequality ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 10:49 AM – 20 Dec 2017

@dukecrawford #attention is the petroleum of our time. Attention is refined by ignoring things that are irrelevant. Avoiding false patterns. @nntaleb Permalink 8:37 AM – 20 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Does someone understand this discrepancy between the formal document and the press on max tax rate (37% vs 38.5%) ?   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:26 AM – 20 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Attention Data Scientists: the M4 competition is Open. The Makridakis Competitions address out of sample performance. M1, M2 & M3 revealed how complex methods are outformed by simpler ones (themselves poor). Permalink 6:37 AM – 20 Dec 2017

@nntaleb THINK TANK ETHICS Paul Salem is one of those Ivy-Lea IYIs who may have started out well-intentioned but never did anything except thinktank crap, now find themselves financially strapped in their 50s. So they prostitute themselves to Gulf Arabs to pay bills. They come cheap. Permalink 4:44 AM – 20 Dec 2017

@XFaure “Virtue is what you do when nobody is watching. The rest is marketing” @nntaleb   Permalink 12:29 AM – 20 Dec 2017

@jeitoapp “there’s no cost of thinking a bull is a cow, until you have to milk it” #SkinInTheGame @nntaleb Permalink 11:54 PM – 19 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Econs: In the age of social media, you can’t keep selling BS with pseudo-mathematics/citation ring/circular vetting with impunity. Eventually a bubble bursts. Permalink 7:04 AM – 19 Dec 2017

@nntaleb This is the kind of bullshit delivered by a BSchool “Associate Dean”. Dangerous BS. Saying “data has fat tails” YET using ordinary MLE estimators, accepting modern portfolio theory, calculating CVaR, regressions, doing business as usual, is INCOHERENT.   Permalink 6:22 AM – 19 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Never met an economist who “knows” statistics. Requires understanding Fat Tails since ~ALL econ variables are fat tailed.   Permalink 5:57 AM – 19 Dec 2017

@rhughesjones Heading to see @nntaleb – An Evening with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, if anyone else fancies it?   Permalink 12:45 AM – 19 Dec 2017

@nntaleb This is not to say business schools are useless: what you learn is either on your own or in the drinking parties. Permalink 3:25 PM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The only thing you can learn from a business school professor is how to become a business school professor. Permalink 3:06 PM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb If I understand things well, the current situation is untenable: there would be, in the future, HUGE economic advantages for being a eunuch. Megan @asymmetricinfo has too much mental clarity for Bloomberg Views.   Permalink 1:51 PM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Thank you Rand Paul for nudging into the direction.   Permalink 1:34 PM – 18 Dec 2017

@charlesamadeus .@nntaleb Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. (2 hours into Anti-fragile). Permalink 1:32 PM – 18 Dec 2017

@yvespatte Bouclage d’un gros article pour Néo Santé, sur la notion d’#antifragilité de @nntaleb. L’article paraîtra dans le courant 2018, comme dossier spécial de la revue. Bcp de liens avec l’alimentation #paleo, #movnat, le #CrossFit, etc. #Hâte #Bestbookever Permalink 11:18 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Mr @paul_salem can you reveal who funds you for such statements? Can you confirm that no Wahabi regime pays you to promote Salafism in America & steer U.S. policy in favor of Jihadis? Thank you in advance. Permalink 10:20 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Correction: 99.99% for journalism. Permalink 7:27 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 8) A more advanced discussion about “empiricism” with fat-tailed distributions.   Permalink 6:51 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 7) The saddest was when I saw Brian Greene @bgreene making the mistake, then not understanding the error. The problem: because of packages, pple use statistics mechanistically so they either forget or don’t know that “significance” is central in discussing/ comparing variables. Permalink 6:39 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb We are open for scholarships for our next seminar in Real World Risk Taking, Feb 5-9 2018. Scholarship are not based on “academic” stuff, but on more general attributes.   Permalink 5:54 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 6) What we just saw with @HEtanShah retweeted by the “highly cited” medical statistician David Spiegelhalter @d_spiegel is the justification of this tweet.   Permalink 4:46 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 5) In other words, statistics in not an IN SAMPLE description (this is called an “anecdote”) but a representation of OUT OF SAMPLE properties (those that hold outside your sample set). Permalink 4:35 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 4) @Mr Shah @HetanShah, As Head of the @RoyalStatSoc Thou Shalt Not Use Statistics in an Unrigorous Manner, in a way to make the person in the street more knowledgeable about risk than a member of the @RoyalStatSoc Permalink 4:29 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@HarryDCrane Sad but true — the RSS has taken a nosedive in past few years, as have its journals (esp Series B) Shah isn’t a statistician — not sure why RSS allows him to peddle nonsense on its behalf Permalink 4:27 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 3) At the core the “statistician” head of the Royal Society is using a variable that converged to the mean by LLN to another one that did not. Permalink 4:22 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 2) Here is a discussion of the reason.   Permalink 4:17 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 1) Look at head statistician from the Royal Society promoting that BS. No, the 2 variables are NOT comparable statistically. Your lawnmower is not trying to kill you. @DrCirillo and I aim to put an end to this in our book.   Permalink 4:15 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Cooperation   Permalink 6:02 PM – 17 Dec 2017

@nntaleb This explains diseconomies of scale from hidden risk (concavity to errors) and why large companies end up vanishing in a market system. #Antifragile   Permalink 5:13 PM – 17 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Second Version of Paper on Gini with coauthors incl @DrCirillo (after requests by referees) Permalink 3:25 PM – 17 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath A slight variation. Two Chickens in Boxes   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:39 AM – 17 Dec 2017

@nntaleb (The idea of skin in the game is to remove the mimicry by filtering via judgment by reality. Otherwise you end up with actors & parrots.) Permalink 7:53 AM – 17 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Semitic Philology du Jour: Jwz and Zwj are different roots. Jawz (for husband in Lebanese) comes from Canaanite Agoz”walnut” (i.e. dual), אֱגוֹז , while zawj (husband in both Aramaic & Arabic) come from Greek ζεύγος (pair). Permalink 6:53 AM – 17 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Interestingly, 3 out of 50 are Lebanese (Abraham, Shaheen, Issa).   Permalink 6:15 AM – 17 Dec 2017

@nntaleb In any profession, 90% of people are clueless but work by situational imitation, narrow mimicry & semi-conscious role-playing. Except social “science” and journalism where it is 99% and 100%, respectively. Permalink 4:16 AM – 17 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Ma fi sha3b bala lugha Ma fi lugha bala adab Dante 5il2 eltilyéné. Sar marja3. (Iza baddak tshuf kif ligha, t-talla3 3al Malte. Bi Malta 3emlo ligha lawa7don). Permalink 3:40 PM – 16 Dec 2017

@nntaleb niktob kitob bilighitna el 3adieh 3ni3mol ligha la2lna, jdidé mush syriené (ligha mayté). 3am bitarjim kitbé 3al libnéné (kin3ané jdid).   Permalink 11:01 AM – 16 Dec 2017

@aintgotnobrakes I can’t get this thought out of my head: “You can define a free person precisely as someone whose fate is not centrally or directly dependent on his peer assessment”   Permalink 10:35 AM – 16 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Wel qaf kamen saret 2a (7atta bil seryéné bnilfuz 2a msh qa). Hiyye “th” saret “t” min zamen (bel aramé 2al l masi7).   Permalink 10:16 AM – 16 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Thank you twitter. #Mathtwitter, @CutTheKnotMath   Permalink 9:59 AM – 16 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Notez que “seeking” dans “rent seeking” ne veut pas dire “recherche” mais exploitation. Donc rente de situation. Permalink 5:53 AM – 16 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Chers amis, est-ce que “rent seeking” correspond au vieux terme francais “rente de situation”? Permalink 5:37 AM – 16 Dec 2017

@Spfannenschmidt Nassim Taleb eyeing an IYI @nntaleb   Permalink 3:36 PM – 15 Dec 2017