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Naive empiricism, terrorism & Ebola

Published on Feb 14, 2017
How “evidence” about the risk of terrorism as shown in the NYT and by BS vending journos makes no sense statistically. Explains the difference between classes using principles of Extreme Value Theory EVT without any math.

Lindy, Noah Smith, Sufis, Trump, Greenwald, Pinker, France, Tversky | Twitter

@CCavafy We the Alexandrians, the Antiochians, the Selefkians, the countless other Greeks of Egypt & Syria, & those in Media, Persia, & all the rest. Permalink 5:23 PM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The smell of mathematical inequality on Sunday evening. @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/pKbrczGMII Permalink 5:05 PM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Other elementary thing *Former Belgian PM* doesn’t get is Pax Americana in W. Europe, Pax Russiana in E. Not his EU ShmEU bureaucratoBS Permalink 4:46 PM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb For those who can’t see it, here is the link between fat tails and weightliftinghttps://medium.com/@nntaleb/strength-training-is-learning-from-tail-events-7aa2c074569d#.qoo5lopoe   Permalink 8:07 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb He came to take my risk/probability class, and look what happened.https://twitter.com/trishankkarthik/status/833339540630822913   Permalink 8:03 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The point is that you NEVER NEVER gauge wars by FREQUENCY but by INTENSITY. Kapish? Permalink 5:03 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb What I mean by Lindy: she and only she is the real expert.https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.l8mhx964p   Permalink 4:24 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The Lindy effect is Lindy compatible. “Use laws that are old & food that is fresh”. Thanks Constantine @ctheofilopoulos pic.twitter.com/q1Lg5MVK4m Permalink 4:15 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The beauty of mathematical visualization early in the morning @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/nkf7gs9qQB Permalink 2:50 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The hundred years war killed between 2K and 22K per year. Kapish? @surfnm Permalink 2:28 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb This former PM of Belgium doesn’t get that this is, simply, wrong. “Wars” used to be small squirmishes. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1505.04722.pdf  https://twitter.com/GuyVerhofstadt/status/832877334260768770   Permalink 2:06 AM – 19 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Anyone who reads Noah Smith has a problem http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/SmithBSVendor.html   @DominikLeusder @Noahpinion Permalink 5:36 PM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I was expecting that Trump would reset the tax code, foreign relations, etc. But I never expected that he would reset the media. Permalink 5:28 PM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Particularizing from the general; vastly worse @Debradelai Permalink 1:34 PM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 2) For Salafis, Islam is immutable law, incompatible w/state. For Sufis, it is ~spirituality, compatible with secular state. @DalrympleWill Permalink 10:05 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Sufis are the future. Unfortunately 1 generation of Saudi Money in Turkey, Syria, etc. eradicated them. Luckily surviving in Central Asia.https://twitter.com/DalrympleWill/status/833004673749626880   Permalink 9:48 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Imbeciles think in words! A universal principle that holds AT ALL SCALES is rigorous. Think before tweeting. @IvarsNeiders @mikeharrisNY Permalink 8:00 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 3) Humanities academics are rejects w/no common sense substituting thinking w/universal slogans, destroying student’s discernment, reasoning Permalink 7:15 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 2) Love of humanity doesn’t force you to open your living room to ALL passers by. But you may invite a few. Complex systems are stratified. Permalink 7:02 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Education & intellectualization make people think in Universal terms for local problems, with no awareness of Scalability. #SkinInTheGame Permalink 6:32 AM – 18 Feb 2017

@nntaleb At starbucks drinking “ethical water”.https://twitter.com/sahouraxo/status/832639141720551424   Permalink 8:01 PM – 17 Feb 2017

@john_f_hamer @nntaleb “We love imperfection, the right kind of imperfection”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (revised 2016 edition) pic.twitter.com/mOxAgid9lJ Permalink 1:48 PM – 17 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Friday squid ink and mathematics with @a_lesniewski pic.twitter.com/pb181J3xD7 Permalink 10:23 AM – 17 Feb 2017

@nntaleb For Math lovers, #FF Follow Friday: @CutTheKnotMath who makes you work very hard. pic.twitter.com/m0ANxGxwq1 Permalink 8:52 AM – 17 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I watched the press conference. Trump played the press like a violin. Calling this “Meltdown” proves that Huff Post is low-IQ propaganda.https://twitter.com/BraddJaffy/status/832334242843615232   Permalink 5:25 AM – 17 Feb 2017

@nntaleb The unnoticed fact revealed in the press conference: The @realDonaldTrump is heavily lawyered & has lawyered up even more post-Flynn. Permalink 4:49 AM – 17 Feb 2017

@AssalehAmer heuristic: when @nntaleb describe something to be bullshit the odds are overwhelmingly it’s bullshithttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/832257892900282369   Permalink 8:33 PM – 16 Feb 2017

@john_f_hamer “People reveal much more about themselves while lying than when they tell the truth.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (2016) pic.twitter.com/C8vkkOMqVO Permalink 1:02 PM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I blocked Louise Mensch for 1) mental incapacity/instability, 2) playing cheap games of sensationalism. @morningj @LouiseMensch @ABarnardNYT Permalink 12:25 PM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Journos & other idiots are confused as hell by the Donald Trump; don’t get that he may be the *only* recent leader who never had a boss. Permalink 10:52 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 3) And Saying let’s not fight terrorism because past incidence is low is like saying let’s remove pilots since planes don’t crash @foxjust Permalink 7:28 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Here is the difference between terrorism & falls from ladders seen from Extreme Value Theory @foxjusthttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dKiLclupUM   Permalink 6:36 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Nice reference to my work @foxjust but Fishhoff NEVER made the distinction Thin/Fat tails, used Extreme Value Theory, mixes tails & variancehttps://twitter.com/BV/status/832201138082574336   Permalink 6:25 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Maybe I should attend the class and make random arguments about what the aphorism meant.https://twitter.com/john_f_hamer/status/832066353167212544   Permalink 5:26 AM – 16 Feb 2017

@john_f_hamer “Anyone who likes meetings should be banned from attending meetings.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (revised 2016 edition) pic.twitter.com/mrs4mDYWR8 Permalink 5:36 PM – 15 Feb 2017

@nntaleb …imitating the choice of the most overweight male at the table…https://twitter.com/SlimScribbles/status/832000324327976961   Permalink 3:08 PM – 15 Feb 2017

@nntaleb True left (Greenwald) is vastly more rigorous than pseudo-left (NYT, Monsantoistic journos). You can agree or at least disagree with them.https://twitter.com/ggreenwald/status/831838190541631488   Permalink 4:57 AM – 15 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Virtue signaling is the information age’s rediscovery of simony . Permalink 1:42 PM – 14 Feb 2017

@john_f_hamer “If you want strangers to help you, smile. For those close to you, cry.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Bed of Procrustes (revised 2016 edition) Permalink 12:45 PM – 14 Feb 2017

@nntaleb pseudo-left pseudo-intellectual pseudo-lib pseudo-science pseudo-feminism pseudo-Dionysius the Aeropagite.https://twitter.com/GuruAnaerobic/status/831594603950272517   Permalink 12:25 PM – 14 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Mystery of why past planned cities worked: Alexandria, Antioch, Constantinople (semi-planned), Kairaouan, Fustat/Cairo. Where they planned?https://twitter.com/JohnDCook/status/831592910319677440   Permalink 12:18 PM – 14 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Minority rule and asymmetry of demand!https://twitter.com/careygillam/status/831550005274148864   Permalink 9:20 AM – 14 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Naive empiricism, terrorism & Ebola. Please don’t read the NYT. https://youtu.be/9dKiLclupUM   via @YouTube Permalink 8:42 AM – 14 Feb 2017

@mns yo @nytimes @nytopinion @NickKristof your thinking is faulty, cc @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/UDN5wfuHvB Permalink 11:57 PM – 13 Feb 2017

@nntaleb We think alike. From Silent Risk (this was 2014) http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html   @ProbFact ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/Z5EuNrH90Y”>  pic.twitter.com/Z5EuNrH90Y Permalink 10:28 AM – 13 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Knows how to handle the difference between evidence of absence and absence of evidence within probability theory.https://twitter.com/gmax1mum/status/831169908440338432   Permalink 8:01 AM – 13 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Interesting story but it doesn’t seem to show in the DNA. They must have converted to Islam. Hitti, Salibi, etc. were fiction writers.https://twitter.com/ByzantineLegacy/status/831012601052135424   Permalink 3:44 AM – 13 Feb 2017

@nntaleb in 2016, Obama accepted ~11000 Sunni refugees and ~72 Christians frm Syria. Mr @ali_w_ali I am blocking you next to avoid twitter pollution. Permalink 9:06 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Please vote on this tweet (twitter polls don’t allow pictures). Thanks Permalink 8:50 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Nigel is spot on. True refugees are *persecuted* minorities, the ones Obama blocked (he accepted 20x more Sunnis in relation to ratios.)https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/830820042736562176   Permalink 8:47 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Friends, question for our Fat Tails book with @DrCirillo. Which graph is nicer, top or bottom? pic.twitter.com/wpbWTP6u1B Permalink 7:41 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb This book represents FooledbyRandomness & bullshit vending at its best: Pinker boy misrepresents/did not even understand his OWN data.https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/829745377431674880   Permalink 6:59 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Genetics is a dream for bullshitphobic historians. Looks like Phoenicians & Assyrians (not Babylonians) were “Indo-Europeans”. @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/ddwyWy1NlC Permalink 5:10 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Now, you have to choose between 2 competing chief executives. Which one should you pick? The one who looks “professional”? Permalink 5:04 AM – 12 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Baal invented sushi so people can pay a lot of money for a meal without gaining weight. Permalink 5:07 PM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb You have to choose between 2 surgeons in a hospital. Which one should you pick? The one who *looks like* a surgeon or the other? @jamessaft Permalink 12:45 PM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Economist hit a point: when you compare them in effectiveness to stamp collectors, philatelists get angry.https://twitter.com/punkphilatelist/status/830412558779588608   Permalink 5:54 AM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Mr @HalSinger after so much economics you need to relearn elementary properties of binary relations, such as symmetry many toddlers know. pic.twitter.com/IL9RvuZ2zY Permalink 4:09 AM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Mr @HalSinger, if someone who has “apocalyptic worldview” likes my book, does it make it apocalyptic? If a prisoners reads my book… #IYI Permalink 3:55 AM – 11 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Squid ink and Pugliese wine to rest after REWRI 4 pic.twitter.com/qxRQZkhkDJ Permalink 5:44 PM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Is this true? How do we compute iatrogenics?https://twitter.com/piktograf_mrlol/status/830207020498354176   Permalink 4:23 PM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb REWRI Day 5: “All markets are illiquid when you really, really need them”. Permalink 10:58 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@KS1729 @nntaleb thought of you when I saw this. complexity of the world vs successive generations of “risk management” pic.twitter.com/bwnySwnN4D Permalink 10:29 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 3 instructors at the same time.https://twitter.com/JamesMarsh79/status/829731053300486144   Permalink 10:23 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Managing the economy without economists is like managing a war without stamp collectors.https://twitter.com/CNBCTopStories/status/830067141525204992   Permalink 10:21 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb .@poetmorgan1 Expressing yourself in words doesn’t mean you thought “in words”. Kapish? And stop tweeting for Baal’s sake. Permalink 9:40 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb BTW I never say that mathematicians think in “numbers” but in axioms, objects, and inequalities: pic.twitter.com/ov57yBnS4v Permalink 4:33 AM – 10 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 2) Hence low risks of violence/ unrest. In spite of academics barkings, risk of fighting is much lower under Trump than it was under Obama.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/829669736560599044   Permalink 5:01 AM – 9 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 1)Cond. Prob. Conditional on having voted Trump, odds of owning gun is, say 30%. Conditional on owning a gun, odds of voting Trump is >90% Permalink 4:34 AM – 9 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Indeed.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/829517127979823104   Permalink 6:42 PM – 8 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Real World Risk-4, 50 pple: 1) 8 weightlifters (max DL 470), 2) 6 pple who returned, 3) 4 Italians, 4) 1 Canadian and …. 5) no vegetarianhttps://twitter.com/DyedraJust/status/828755748586938368   Permalink 12:55 PM – 8 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Never expected that Antifragile would end up being influential in the White House. But I hoped for it.http://politi.co/2jUtPVp   Permalink 8:37 AM – 8 Feb 2017

@ScottAdamsSays Everything Taleb says is smarter than whatever you were thinking on your own. Especially if you are a word-thinker.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/829028834578202624   Permalink 11:31 AM – 7 Feb 2017

@nntaleb “There’s A Global Riot Against Pseudo-Experts” Nassim Taleb Exclaims “This Is Not About Fascism” | Zero Hedge http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-07/not-fascism-nassim-taleb-warns-theres-global-riot-against-psuedo-experts   Permalink 10:07 AM – 7 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Which is why I never read and after a mistake never write for @prosynhttps://twitter.com/stan_yurin/status/828947314014302208   Permalink 5:06 AM – 7 Feb 2017

@nntaleb There is currently a global reaction against the pseudo-expert. Who is the real expert? Lindy.https://medium.com/incerto/an-expert-called-lindy-fdb30f146eaf#.ks4e2m2bj   Permalink 2:35 AM – 7 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Fooled by Randomness *precedes* Drunkards walk @investomedico . Kapish?https://twitter.com/investormedico/status/828591148696473600   Permalink 5:13 AM – 6 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I systematically decline invitations to conf. discussing “populism” as if it were some type of pathology. Mere term “populism” misframes pic.twitter.com/IGzbnorPDu Permalink 7:51 AM – 5 Feb 2017

@nntaleb By indiscriminately attacking Trump, even when he does the right thing, the pseudoleft is elevating him & self-destructing. #Antifragilehttps://twitter.com/StephensWSJ/status/828047211762155520   Permalink 3:44 AM – 5 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Remember.https://twitter.com/alphamelville/status/738640536521867264   Permalink 1:52 AM – 5 Feb 2017

@nntaleb One of my yet unfulfilled predictions is to see the true left fight the pseudo-left over Trump’s foreign policy.https://twitter.com/MaxBlumenthal/status/828052045701722113   Permalink 6:21 PM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Syriacs are high J2 and very little J1, meaning Northern Mesopotamians had no intermixing w/Semites. Only language. @zaliin @PZalloua Permalink 6:11 PM – 4 Feb 2017

@BBassem7 This is an amazing exchange. Very courageous of Trump. #FoxNews pic.twitter.com/f0ulhYwoj0 Permalink 6:09 PM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb If an American entrepreneur is stupid enough to relocate to France, good news. It would improve the average of both counties.https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/827958432955260937   Permalink 11:27 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Greek mytho has Europa from Tyre to Crete, Arcadia frm Ugaritic pple (Arwada). Bible has Canaan son of Ham not Shem. @wunderbearer @PZalloua pic.twitter.com/pxL0YH6sOm Permalink 10:52 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 2) In other words the claims by Jews that they are different tribe from Cannaanites even if lang same appears true. @wunderbearer @PZalloua Permalink 10:42 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 1) Looks like the notion “Canaanites as Semites” is bogus empirically. Both Torah & Greek mythology say they aren’t. @wunderbearer @PZalloua Permalink 10:41 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb More interestingly, the probability of Koura people being of Arab origin is less than 1 in 1,000,000 @PZalloua Permalink 9:42 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Distribution of Genes of Greek-Orthodox in Koura (Amioun) appears *identical* to Greek Islands/Crete @PZalloua Confirms Byzantine theory pic.twitter.com/SmvKRBCfp5 Permalink 9:29 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Artificial stupidity comes w/ overriding the Lindy-compatible in favor of some bias invented by some ignorant nerd like @r_thaler Permalink 8:57 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb A. Tversky once said he didn’t care about *artificial intelligence*,he studied *natural stupidity*. I prefer to study *artificial stupidy*. Permalink 8:26 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 1)Historical Intrigue du jour: Phoenicians & Assyrians likely not of “Semitic” ancestry, yet spoke Semitic lang. @PZalloua will have more. pic.twitter.com/Igw0rq9BtT Permalink 5:18 AM – 4 Feb 2017

@BBassem7 #Saudi tweep refers to the terrorist that attacked the Louvre as a “hero” Saudis are not covered by the Trump’s ban. pic.twitter.com/Em28c4M0OY Permalink 2:45 PM – 3 Feb 2017

@normonics Demonstrating the IYI allergy to discontinuities. Tiny changes often beget qualitative shift.https://twitter.com/R_Thaler/status/826840804660436993   Permalink 9:30 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Actually, they would call it… “the left”.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/827503519305519104   Permalink 5:30 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb I wonder what the Enlightenment people would call a “Left” that’s authoritarian, repressive, disciplinarian, & despotically normative. Permalink 5:06 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb . @arbedout Before tweeting, think in 2nd order of why I made such statement. Check amazon, it’s #1. Permalink 4:57 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Milo’s book is the highest selling book in America, 2 month before pub! #Antifragilehttps://twitter.com/MarkEGreene/status/827491494068117504   Permalink 4:48 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 1) Peace: Top or Bottom? Morrocan gov pro-Israel, but popul. hostile. Iran gov hostile, but not Iranians. Which peace is easier? Think Long Permalink 4:46 AM – 3 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Antifragilehttps://twitter.com/CDOCubed/status/827413609877757952   Permalink 3:07 AM – 3 Feb 2017

Trump makes sense to a grocery store owner | The Hindu

Full article: Trump makes sense to a grocery store owner

Where do you see the world moving now? Further right, or will it revert to the centre?

I don’t think it will go left or right, and I don’t know about the short term. But I think in the long term, the world can only survive if it lives like nature does. Many smaller units of governance, and a collection of super islands with some separation, quick decision-making, and visible implementation. Lots of Switzerlands, that’s what we need. What we need is not leaders, we don’t need them. We just need someone at the top who doesn’t mess the system up.

The Bed of Procrustes by Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Animated By illacertus

Cowen, Thaler, Deadlift, SaudiBarbaria, “think tanks”, Salafism | Twitter

@nntaleb 3825 years later, economists haven’t yet figured out what Babylonians did: debt has systemic effects (hence on others), self-harm doesn’t.https://twitter.com/tylercowen/status/826613009132969984   Permalink 3:14 PM – 2 Feb 2017

@jnyangena Something @nntaleb has been saying for years nowhttps://twitter.com/BrentBeshore/status/827237359074684928   Permalink 1:17 PM – 2 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Do IYI economists & social “scientists” realize they will soon be cut from taxpayer money? The pseudo-research $$ scam is bound to end. Permalink 9:59 AM – 2 Feb 2017

@nntaleb New York Museum of Mathematics, @MoMath1 Matthew Richey pic.twitter.com/rC0hWazww1 Permalink 4:15 PM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Outside your shit papers, in the real world, risk-takers work with thresholds to simplify life. @R_Thaler @JamesMarsh79 Permalink 9:53 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Rodrik, like cheap Starbucks, engages in cheap virtue signaling, at the expense of sophistry. Bullshit is free. @CliffordAsness @rodrikdani Permalink 6:20 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb We’ve know Syria news were fake almost from the beginning. Why did it take that long? Herding/lack of courage by journos fearful to deviate.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/826582270777683968   Permalink 5:00 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb (cont) Last time I set foot in Starbucks they were selling something called “ethical water”; with millennials falling for that scam. Permalink 2:29 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Nothing wrong in the classics in the elevation of your status. But you need to take risks for that, signal courage. @PrometheusAM Permalink 2:18 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Great Ed Thorpe’s memoir. @JamesMarsh79 alerted me that smokevendor @R_Thaler finds Kelly/Thorpe criterion a mistakehttps://medium.com/@nntaleb/foreword-to-ed-thorps-memoirs-a-man-for-all-markets-6beba78cd2b#.eo4b8yt9s   Permalink 2:17 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 4) “Bullshit vending” was present in the classics, as more politely “Smoke vending” “Vendere fumum” Compiled in Erasmus (Adagia, I, 3, 41 ) Permalink 2:06 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb Blaming Starbucks for fake virtue signaling, hypocrisy, exploitation of the immigration ban, @kaveh_h I boycott Starbucks since GMO darkact Permalink 1:58 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@nntaleb 3) I am procrastinating w/ *Skin in the Game* as I can’t find *virtue signaling* in classics (#Lindy),nothing beyond hypocrisy. Is it new? Permalink 1:56 AM – 1 Feb 2017

@illacertus Just uploaded my animation of The Bed of Procrustes by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) – https://youtu.be/lRN_KT17mNo   ” target=”_blank”>http://pic.twitter.com/2z9AyjC8MJ”>  pic.twitter.com/2z9AyjC8MJ Permalink 10:35 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Results are lift specific. Deadlift 5max rep dropped from weaknening of wrist. Rest between unchanged (squat) and slighly down (press). Thx!https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/825684555407511552   Permalink 9:26 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Voila @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com/GQbASsQwII Permalink 4:51 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb It takes courage to stand up to Saudi Arabia, none to virtue signal here. There is no virtue without risktaking & sacrifice #skininthegamehttps://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/826386249992830978   Permalink 3:41 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I boycott SaudiBarbaria. They should. @MrSeras @AlexJacksonKerr @Konstant_V Permalink 3:19 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Virtue signaling here and there! Pseudo left here, extreme right there. https://twitter.com/konstant_v/status/826251002592559109   Permalink 3:06 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@GreenRupertRead https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/29/barcelona-residents-protest-high-rents-fuelled-by-tourism?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other   – An encouraging development!: Barcelona marches against the harmfulness of tourism on the city. @g_kallis Pse RT Permalink 2:27 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The IYI pseudo-left is disgusting.https://twitter.com/rupasubramanya/status/823410948589416448   Permalink 1:11 AM – 31 Jan 2017

@nntaleb We Christians have been made uncomfortable & not at home in the Levant; we feel at home with Western values & want to keep it as such. Permalink 11:15 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Mr Abdulla I came here running away from intolerant Salafis like you & separation of ch & state. No chasing me here.https://twitter.com/saloul/status/826143889161613312   Permalink 11:06 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 3/People are not getting that it is under Obama that minorities fleeing Sunni persecution were not allowed !!! pic.twitter.com/pLcAooTXly Permalink 11:03 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Here is the answer to Mr Greene @bgreene: don’t use your “scientific” status to give policy advice about risk. pic.twitter.com/B0Cp7HfTCk Permalink 8:07 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Can someone answer the fellow abt comparing random variables? Thanks.https://twitter.com/bgreene/status/826080516256436224   Permalink 7:23 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Greene is CLUELESS abt risk/probblty.”Odds” are NOT past frequencies for fat tailed distributions ! Only thintailedhttps://twitter.com/bgreene/status/826066350619652098   Permalink 6:20 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb A better link for the paper: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/elections.pdf   Permalink 4:53 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Finally, first draft of my paper on how to forecast an election: forecast includes more volatility than success pr.https://www.dropbox.com/s/wfhm4q3w3k964y2/elections1.pdf?dl=0   Permalink 4:31 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb No, retweets. I unfollowed those who retweeted this. @shootersix Permalink 3:42 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Alas, statistics w/o reasoning. P(hit by bus) < 10^-20 probability of quadrupling. Not terror. #FooledByRandomness !https://twitter.com/KimKardashian/status/825580660337283073   Permalink 3:39 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 1) Reasoning: if a Moroccan terrorist (hence Muslim) killed Muslim people in #QuebecCity, very high probability the victims are Shiites. Permalink 2:20 AM – 30 Jan 2017

@nntaleb For Baal’s sake, note that I am against the ban for Iran, Iraq & Yemen, but REQUIRING restrictions for Salafis .Kapish? @mtsw @rodrikdani Permalink 10:35 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb And Salafism isn’t quite promoting the tolerant “diversity” that Mr Rodrik is looking for… @rodrikdani Permalink 10:30 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Had @rodrikdani made an effort to get the point instead of bullshitting: American value is not accepting assymmetric *intolerant* religion. Permalink 10:28 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Mr Rodrik, hope you understand that you are some BS-writing hack living on American charity. Not quite the American dream. @rodrikdani Permalink 9:32 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Asymmetric separation between church and state is leading to Halal public shools in France. @schmittpaula @zak_pullen Permalink 9:22 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb A friend you lose was never a friend. @TheDefenderA Permalink 9:02 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@BBassem7 Christianity is under attack by ISIS & AlQaeda in the Middle East. This is no secret. This is a video of what ISIS did to churches in N Iraq pic.twitter.com/MpQshEct25 Permalink 9:01 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@schmittpaula @nntaleb Case in point:Somali taxi drivers in Minneapolis airport refusing to pick up passengers w alcohol, sending them to back of the line Permalink 8:36 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb For those still confused about Salafi Islam & the Popper-Godel principle, let me again invoke the minority rule.https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.iyxs6hpdm   Permalink 8:24 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb I came as refugee from the Lebanese war, embraced American values,& vowed to defend them. I refuse immigrants who don’t embrace our values. Permalink 8:02 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 3) Shiites are also victims. In Saudi Arabia they are treated worse than dhimmis. Permalink 7:23 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb 2) Iran is the only Islamic country that is truly robust in its tolerance towards Christians and Jews. Permalink 7:21 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Those railing abt temp ban are silent abt dhimmification & extermination by Sunnis Salafis in Near & Middle-East.https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/825721153142521858   Permalink 7:18 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@GreenRupertRead St Thomas Aquinas – ‘It is better that a blind horse is slow’. #PrecautionaryPrinciple pic.twitter.com/0K1Wz882VE Permalink 6:54 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Back to New York after ~4 weeks weightlifting hiatus, to let the body heal from injuries. What will happen to the maximum press/deadlift? Permalink 4:38 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Proper legal mechanism is to de-label Salafism as religion, treat it like a political party (say Nazis) then ban!https://medium.com/@nntaleb/we-dont-know-what-we-are-talking-about-when-we-talk-about-religion-3e65e6a3c44e#.8olh056n6   Permalink 12:43 AM – 29 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Bingo! It is fallacious to treat Salafis as religion or race, but as a violent viciously intolerant political party.https://twitter.com/kringelikrok/status/825600544559362048   Permalink 11:25 PM – 28 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Just as “political science” doesn’t have any science, “think tanks” are for people who don’t and can’t think. Permalink 3:21 PM – 28 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Salafism is CRIMINAL @singhponline @Medium Permalink 2:13 PM – 28 Jan 2017

@nntaleb A potent border test for Salafis: crack a joke and check their sense of humor. Salafis & literalists can’t get humor.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/825430237643149315   Permalink 1:05 PM – 28 Jan 2017

@nntaleb We should ban indiv. Salafascists from entering U.S., not countries, not Yemenis & Shiite Iranians. (Popper-Godel)https://medium.com/incerto/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.moo05xksc   Permalink 11:47 AM – 28 Jan 2017

@nntaleb No-nonsense Book on Fat Tails with @DrCirillo, looking increasingly like Dynamic Hedging in style. pic.twitter.com/SZFzKNiP8C Permalink 11:13 AM – 28 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Probability du Jour: Why correlation always finite and bounded in (-1, 1), when covariances are undefined. (final) pic.twitter.com/fgj3itJzEB Permalink 11:16 PM – 27 Jan 2017

@nntaleb While Trump’s”enemies take him literally not seriously & friends seriously not literally”, the wise looks at his acts & acts only. No words. Permalink 6:40 AM – 27 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Actually title is “Extreme Events and How to Live with Them” Permalink 6:26 AM – 27 Jan 2017

@nntaleb They aren’t aware that I will lecture on something related to the Ancient Mediterranean without anyone noticing.https://twitter.com/DarwinLectures/status/824985891840151552   Permalink 6:24 AM – 27 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Pedagogical slides explaining Fat Tails for my talk in Cambridge questa sera: Why under fat tails single events>sum pic.twitter.com/oXNzOUp9m6 Permalink 3:05 AM – 27 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Cambridge pic.twitter.com/UasiBmiIlK Permalink 11:26 PM – 26 Jan 2017

@nntaleb From discussion w/ @DrCirillo abt the mystery of why correlation exists but not covariance for very Fat Tailed dist pic.twitter.com/rz6cp0UDUc Permalink 10:45 PM – 26 Jan 2017

@nntaleb The problem with demonizing people instead of criticizing them is that truth eventually comes out in full force & the devil becomes a saint.https://twitter.com/daniellmcadams/status/824769366046732288   Permalink 10:24 PM – 26 Jan 2017

@nntaleb Bravo! There has never been a crowd that creates as much harm thinking they are doing good as pple in US State Dept.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/824655496854564864   Permalink 9:05 AM – 26 Jan 2017

@nntaleb You cannot do statistics without logic. Otherwise you become a data fraud, or, worse, an economist.https://twitter.com/DrCirillo/status/824328271814868992   Permalink 3:07 AM – 26 Jan 2017