This title was released on May 11, 2010. Order Here.
I’m on my third reading, not to mention having listened to the audio book twice, so I wasn’t sure
about getting the second edition. But in his Hard Problems talk, NNT mentions having
become obsessed with robustness, and that accounting for the additional 100 pages… Sold!
It will be nice to start with a fresh copy, mine is a little worn with all the highlighter, notes,
bent pages, cracked spine etc.
Update 8/11/10 Turns out one need only be logged in to Twitter to see NNT’s tweets. It does appear the RSS feed is also login protected.
Update 8/8/10 It would appear NNT has “protected” his tweets. Not sure what that means exactly. There is the option to Send Request. Never seen that before. It looks to me like NNT has managed to turn Twitter into an anti-social media!
Link To Full Story: Google Alerts - Nassim Taleb
2. One book. Black Swan, by Nasim Taleb. 3. One movie. Fight Club. 4. One website. news.ycombinator.com. 5. One hero. Jeff Bezos. 6. One perfume. Elixir Des Merveilles Perfume by Hermes. 7. piece of jewelry. IWC Portuguese Mystere. ...
Link To Full Story: Twitter / nntaleb
nntaleb: Finished My Central Paper http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1669317
---------------------------------------------------
Links to pdf download page for:
Convexity, Robustness, and Model Error
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
NYU-Poly
August, 31 2010
Abstract:
This discussion makes the distinction inside the Fourth Quadrant "Black Swan Domain" between fragile an robust to model (or representational) error on the basis of convexity.
• The notion of model error as a convex or concave stochastic variable.
• Why deficit forecasting errors are biased in one direction.
• Why large is fragile to errors.
• How economics as a discipline made the monstrously consequential mistake of treating estimated parameters as nonstochastic variables and why this leads to fat-tails even while using Gaussian models.
• The notion of epistemic uncertainty as embedded in model errors.
In addition, it introduces a simple practical heuristic to measure (as an indicator of fragility) the sensitivity of a portfolio (or balance sheet) to model error. Finally, it sets an explicit path to conduct policy based on robustness
Working Paper Series
Link To Full Story: www.dailykos.com
The short: I enjoyed the book and found it hard to put down. It challenged some of my thinking and changed the way that I look at things.
What I didn't like: the book was very inefficient; he could have conveyed the same message in about 1/3 of the pages.
But: the fluff/padding was still interesting; the author has a sense of humor and writes in an entertaining style.
What is the gist of the book? Well, the lessons are basically these:
Link To Full Story: Twitter / nntaleb
nntaleb: The commodification paths: from hunting to farming to artisanry to industry; and from love to marriage to gold-digging to prostitution
Link To Full Story: www.thedrawbridge.org.uk
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is the author of The Black Swan, an extended edition of which is published in May by Penguin.
Does having a job make you a phony? Well, it most always does, in various degrees, so let's take these three rules for now. Primo: never trust a man who earns a salary (or, more specifically, has a dependent source of income) – unless he is on minimum wage. People in bondage would do absolutely anything to "feed a family". Secondo: people who earn their living lying down (or standing up) are several times more trustworthy than those who do so sitting down. But don't just jump to all the wrong professions – I do most of my reading and some of my writing lying supine. Terzo: don't be fooled by money. These are just numbers. Being self-owned is a state of mind.
Some bank tellers are closer to self-ownership, given that they can easily switch to another job paying just minimum wage, while the chairman of the very same bank is, typically, a pure slave. The employees at the bottom cannot be easily forced to commit acts of desperation, or, say, fit their beliefs to accord with an action they have taken because they have to do so within their profession, rather than act according to preset beliefs. Such self-spinning justificatory strategy is commonly known as cognitive dissonance, as the person finds justification to resolve the mismatch between the initial set of mind and his subsequent actions. A banker, for example, can take crazy (but of course legal) actions loading the world with risk just to get a bonus, then subsequently find the justification that he is helping spur economic activity and that he is indispensable to society. Or people can indulge buying lottery tickets and claim – and believe – that they are doing it "for their children".
Link To Full Story: Twitter / nntaleb
nntaleb: The Magnificent, Note 133, www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm
Link To Full Story: Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Facebook Wall
http://www.tnr.com/article/books-and-arts/77206/dating-advice-swf-loves-sebald-seeks-same-in-man
Link To Full Story: Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Facebook Wall
http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2010/08/26/stem
Link To Full Story: Twitter / nntaleb
nntaleb: Why did the CRISIS Happen?
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1666042
-----------------------------------------------------------
Abstract:
This paper —while a standalone invited essay written for a special crisis issue of New Political Economy — synthesizes the various technical documents by the author as related to the financial crisis. It can also be used as a technical companion to The Black Swan(2007-2010).
Keywords: Black Swan, Risk Management, Finance, Markets, Crisis
Link To Full Story: Twitter / nntaleb
nntaleb: The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical & Practical Aphorisms", N N Taleb (of Amioun), c. Jan 2011 www.fooledbyrandomness.com/aphorisms.pdf