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Jesse Norman, Hong Kong, Politics Under Complexity, Horrified, The New Yorker, McCain, Free Speech | Twitter

@nntaleb “Qui veut noyer son chien l’accuse de la rage”. Permalink 8:46 AM – 11 Sep 2018

@nntaleb When a dominant, functionally monopolist technology company removes post by XYZ claiming it “removed posts by XYZ a Fascist/Conspiracy-Theorist/Misogynist”, read: It *labeled* XYZ a “Fascist/Conspiracy Theorist/Misogynist” so it could silence him/her. #Stalinist old trick. Permalink 8:16 AM – 11 Sep 2018

@nntaleb On my long trip from HK to Northern Phoenician, reading Jesse Norman’s new book, promising read after his excccccccccccellent bio of Burke! Adam Smith: Father of Economics by Jesse Norman   via @amazon Permalink 8:07 AM – 11 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Honk Kong: a city-state made by traders for traders. Permalink 7:05 PM – 10 Sep 2018

@NathanielATL Reading The Bed of Procrustes. From now on I’ll tell all my friends that @nntaleb is overrated. Will be fun to see who picks up on it. Permalink 9:19 AM – 10 Sep 2018

@RonPaul Why Are We Siding With al-Qaeda?   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:16 AM – 10 Sep 2018

@wikileaks Hillary Clinton email: Israeli intelligence says collapse of Syria will spark a Sunni-Shiite war that will benefit #Israel   #Syria #Iran ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:37 AM – 10 Sep 2018

@OfficialSethu I’ve read this 5 times and each time it appears to make more sense than the last time. ‘Localising’ Principle 4 would be tricky. Mainly because politicians have etched themselves, and thereby their ‘theory>practice’ philosophy into EVERYTHING.   Permalink 5:27 PM – 9 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Principles of Politics under Complexity (Thread) Permalink 4:37 PM – 9 Sep 2018

@john_f_hamer @nntaleb : What you’ve been saying for well over a decade, Nassim!   Permalink 1:05 PM – 9 Sep 2018

@ptavega Good to know that amazon’s algo learned what is “non talebian” @nntaleb Permalink 12:18 PM – 9 Sep 2018

@spyrosmakrid OECD published “Scenarios for the world economy to 2060”   What is the value of these scenarios given the uncertainty over a time span of over 40 years and the possibility of SINGULARITY occuring during this period Really NO learning   Permalink 8:11 AM – 9 Sep 2018

@Jaffer22915438 Liberals seem to hate Assange as well as establishment Republicans. #FreeAssange   Permalink 4:26 AM – 9 Sep 2018

@emiliodib Voici un projet de dictionnaire lexical français-libanais, ouvert d’accès et collaboratif :   C’est l’effet subsidiaire d’une prochaine publication en ces deux langues. Il contient actuellement ~5500 mots parmi les plus courants. Permalink 1:06 AM – 9 Sep 2018

@nntaleb (corrected and expanded) Permalink 7:00 AM – 8 Sep 2018

@nntaleb @yhazony Permalink 6:08 AM – 8 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Principle 5 can be seen here:   Permalink 6:00 AM – 8 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Politics under Complex Systems Permalink 5:40 AM – 8 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The virtuous worry about their integrity, lesser humans (say, academics) about their reputation. Permalink 9:25 AM – 7 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Black Swan man is doing Extreme Value Theory!   Permalink 9:20 AM – 7 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Looking for an integral   Permalink 6:44 AM – 7 Sep 2018

@Imamofpeace Syrian school before and after defeating ISIS. Beautiful. Permalink 8:14 PM – 6 Sep 2018

@LetsWorkHappy If you, like many other ppl, wished our podcast interview between @GadSaad & Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb was longer — check out their in-depth convo on The Saad Truth   Permalink 9:13 AM – 6 Sep 2018

@nntaleb By Hammurabi’s symmetry, people issuing false accusations should be treated as if they committed the offense themselves. For instance, this @Xeni’s accusation of “death camps” should lead to @Xeni being treated as if she advocated death camps. Gabish? Permalink 6:56 AM – 6 Sep 2018

@Jaffer22915438 The crowd sourcing of anti-BS is something fundamentally new. All you need is a critical number of dedicated folks with the knowledge base to apply that knowledge. The “experts” (or Elites) are extremely threatened by this bottom up approach. Permalink 5:54 AM – 6 Sep 2018

@nntaleb A simple picture that explains the area ACL Anatolia-Caucasus-Levant as one single historical group, and as a separate category. cc:@PZalloua Permalink 5:33 AM – 6 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The Cleveland Clinic deleted the statement. There is a statistical rigor police on twitter; you could fool the NYT or the NewYorker but can’t BS on Twitter with impunity. Thank you friends members of the Anti-BS vending brigade.   Permalink 6:49 PM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The Cleveland Clinic deleted the statement. There is a statistical rigor police on twitter; you could fool the NYT or the NewYorker but can’t BS on Twitter with impunity. Thank you friends members of the Anti-BS vending brigade.   Permalink 6:49 PM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I meant he or she. Permalink 3:19 PM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb We can assert that the “insider” who wrote the NYT Op Ed, assuming he exists, is a neocon.   Permalink 3:14 PM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb 2- “Modernity’s double punishment is to make both age prematurely and live longer”. Bed of Procustes Permalink 1:54 PM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb AGING Thread. We are the first society in which being an elder is not indicative of superior fitness. We are also one of the very few societies in which being an elder does not bring a higher social status. Permalink 1:16 PM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb When Latin was dropped by the Catholic church, while other Abrahamic religions retained holy tongues, Catholicism collapsed -perhaps independently. Meanwhile, pple in fastest growing religion pray in classical Arabic a tongue <20% understand & < 4% speak. in #FooledbyRandomness Permalink 5:10 AM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb These clinics need some adult supervision — I mean some statistical supervision. The claim below is about as bogus as it gets.   Permalink 4:33 AM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb These clinics need some adult supervision — I mean some statistical supervision. The claim below is about as bogus as it gets.   Permalink 4:33 AM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Never invoke Popper’s argument against intolerance when you tag people as “Nazis”,”fascist”, or “somethingist” in order to be intolerant against them. Never.   Permalink 2:36 AM – 5 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Total nonsense: the idea in #SkinIntheGame about the Popper-Godel metaproblem: those whose platform is against democracy should not be allowed to get there using democracy …much like Salafis in Europe. Shd not be an argument to exclude pple you demonize as “Nazis”. Gabish?   Permalink 5:08 PM – 4 Sep 2018

@Mike2McNeil Permalink 2:25 PM – 4 Sep 2018

@Cernovich John McCain was a butcher and warmonger with infamous temper tantrums and fits of rage. Look at how his legacy is being rewritten. He’s magically a human rights activist and elder statesman. As @nntaleb observed (paraphrased), “If the news is fake, imagine how bad history is.” Permalink 2:21 PM – 4 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Horrified. Almost nothing studied in sociology will hold when students reach the age of 30. Everything in Latin will stay. Greek government, what are you destroying?   Permalink 1:55 PM – 4 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Hello @CreateSpace, why was Roger Makhlouf’s @lebaneselingui1 Lebanese-English dictionary banned and removed from @amazon ? He was told he violated “terms of service”. Which terms of service?   Permalink 9:49 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Devitt is an impressive mind. But there is something abt an 80 year old philosopher dressed like a teenager. By the #LindyEffect there is some type of gravitas, dignitas, and decorum that comes with the offices of philosophers, magistrates, bishops, doctors, & scholars.   Permalink 8:45 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I will give a video lecktchur.   Permalink 7:42 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The best thing The NewYorker did to Bannon is disinvite him. Much better than debating him as he can’t lose that debate. Information is #Antifragile. Permalink 7:12 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@nntaleb And the smear with “death camp” narrative migh be actually debunked (along with the ethics of @Xeni) should one hear from Bannon expressing his own ideas.   Permalink 6:41 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@nntaleb TheNewYorker disinviting Bannon means the following: 1- You have no right to present your own ideas lest they vary from those as presented by the media, or 2- You have no right to present your own ideas lest they surprise people as less dangerous than what they expected. Permalink 6:38 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@urtatses OPEN INSCRIPTIONS! 10th NOVEMBER, Basque C. Discussing @nntaleb ideas w/ @GuruAnaerobic, @jacoporomei, @Ekaitzsaies… Interested DM me   Permalink 5:22 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@nntaleb ANSWER: It is a marker of fattailedness. Distributions in the Subexponential class don’t have exponential moments. Permalink 5:11 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@oldlevantine Thank you @nntaleb @Decafquest #EyalZisser #BatYeor   Permalink 4:53 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@spyrosmakrid An equally important problem to new medical findings invalidating previous ones   are serious mistakes and the underestimation of uncertainty in the diagnostic process (See Forecasting, uncertainty and risk in medical “SCIENCE”)   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 1:16 AM – 4 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Mr Erickson you are ignorant. Dangerously clueeeless   Permalink 3:28 PM – 3 Sep 2018

@kri_tiker „They [newspapers] lie with right facts; a novelist says the truth with wrong facts“ — @nntaleb #quoteoftheday Permalink 3:02 PM – 3 Sep 2018

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR: Figure out what this absence of moment generating function is the marker of & why? Quite central. @ProbFact   Permalink 3:02 PM – 3 Sep 2018

@KafkasCastle1 @nntaleb convexity & optionality epitomised in one building   Permalink 2:34 PM – 3 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The Pagan holiday of Christmas may actually originate from Northern Syria, the area betw Emesa and Heliopolis-Baalbeck (Sol Invictus), brought to Rome w/Domna, around where the Obama-McCain-Qaeda rebels are making these statements.   @EHSANI22 Permalink 1:16 PM – 3 Sep 2018

@RudyHavenstein I love that @nntaleb especially goes after my two main pet peeves: the chickenhawk think-tank neocon warmonger brigade, and the IYI inbred econ-cult, and all their bankster-shill fanboys. Plus he calls out Saudi Barbaria, which I call ‘ISIS with a monarchy.’   Permalink 11:26 AM – 3 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I played the game “will reproduce/not reproduce” below (on psychological & social science “findings” published in Science/Natchur that turn out to be BS. Got 95% right using the simple metric: would it make sense to grandmother? Try it. #LindyEffect   Permalink 8:35 AM – 3 Sep 2018

@nntaleb #LudicFallacy Permalink 8:27 AM – 3 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Fini la gauche et la droite ? Et si le nouveau clivage de nos vies politiques se faisait entre Grecs et Ro…   via @po_st Permalink 3:45 PM – 2 Sep 2018

@nntaleb I am tired hearing my anti-war, anti-interventionism, libertarian-localist & liberal-but-anti-pseudoliberal friends voicing dissent at the deification of Senator McCain. The bottom line is that 1) he is gone & 2) there is no *prominent* obsessive warmonger replacement. Gabish? Permalink 8:32 AM – 2 Sep 2018

@ScaleStartup one does NOT have to *support* trump in order to be against authoritarian-vietue-signalling-socialism It is not a binary question, despite what kasparov et al leftists would have you believe Permalink 7:37 AM – 2 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The fellow is very well trained in Stalinist methods: pathologize, punish then criminalize dissent.   Permalink 7:09 AM – 2 Sep 2018

@nntaleb + IF ONLY those scientific results that are NOT offensive to certain activist groups get published, “published” science will collapse into propaganda w/o any participant noticing + PLOS has played a dirty rule in past w/GMOs, withdrawing Op-Ed under pressure from Monsanto shills   Permalink 7:02 AM – 2 Sep 2018

@NewEricHoffer This falls in line with a lot of points by @nntaleb . The art is better when people do have a day job.   Permalink 5:55 AM – 2 Sep 2018

@scsclassics A petition has been started to ask Kindle Direct and CreateSpace to continue supporting publishing in the Latin language.  ” target=”_blank”>  ” target=”_blank”>    Permalink 6:58 PM – 1 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Logic: IF tenure causes civil servants to be subpar (from adverse selection) AND without tenure civil service becomes political patronage for the ruling party, THEN the only solution is: the MINIMUM nmbr of gov employees, reserved for tasks that can’t be subcontracted. Gabish? Permalink 8:18 AM – 1 Sep 2018

@mikeandallie This is a nice sum problem and also a nice min / max calculus problem to share with students.   Permalink 7:58 AM – 1 Sep 2018

@nntaleb The French are Germanics who speak a Germanic language using Latin words. Permalink 7:50 AM – 1 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Once govt hires a person, it is short optionality. It is stuck with the bad person, when the good one might be able to get a job elsewhere. It is just like adverse selection in insurance. It is a YUUUUUGE cost: We pay for it. Govs employees shd be AS FIREABLE as other citizens. Permalink 7:16 AM – 1 Sep 2018

@nntaleb My solution Permalink 6:29 AM – 1 Sep 2018

@spyrosmakrid Further to my Tweet “NOT ONLY CAUSALITIES BUT ALSO ASSOCIATIONS ARE HARD IN SOCIAL SCIENCES” a new study of 220,000 adults found that eating well above recommended portions of cheese and meat reduces the risk of death and heart attacks. What medical “SCIENCE” will tell us next! Permalink 6:02 AM – 1 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Saturday Bogomolny Memorial Riddle @CutTheKnotMath. (BMR) This one is light. (thanks Dan Sitaru Romanian Mathematical Magazine) Permalink 5:41 AM – 1 Sep 2018

@nntaleb Those who get skin in the game really get it.   Permalink 6:21 PM – 31 Aug 2018

@nntaleb When comparing salaries of government workers, consider that they have a much, much lower risk of unemployment and layoff than the rest of the population. This employment guarantee is a yuuuge hidden compensation.   Permalink 6:10 PM – 31 Aug 2018

@NonGMOProject These simple tips will ensure your child goes back to school with a lunch they love, made from ingredients you can feel good about.   Permalink 6:05 PM – 31 Aug 2018

@maxkeiser The bloated corpse of David Bowie seen dancing with children.   Permalink 2:27 PM – 31 Aug 2018

@mbalter Recommend two things: A @MotherJones expose that’s a little dated but revealing, and discovery docs from the #Roundup suit showing #Monsanto has funded them. They practically beg for the money.   and   Permalink 2:19 PM – 31 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Science progresses from funeral to funeral (of rentseeking academics). Peace progresses from funeral to funeral (of warmongers). Permalink 6:07 AM – 31 Aug 2018

@nntaleb No math was used (in the modern sense), just heuristics. #Antifragile, Books 4 be 5.   Permalink 4:11 AM – 31 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The point is that nudgeboy Thaler and other entertainers are translating something static (choice betwen 2 lotteries in state-space) into something dynamic (local policy in sequential betting). Static properties have no meaning in the real world. Permalink 4:10 AM – 31 Aug 2018

@HarryDCrane http://RESEARCHERS.ONE  ” target=”_blank”> http://RESEARCHERS.ONE    publishing platform No paywalls No editorial board No accept/reject Autonomous (author-driven) pre-pub peer review Post-pub peer review http://RESEARCHERS.ONE  ” target=”_blank”> http://RESEARCHERS.ONE   : entrusting scholarship to scholars Follow @researchersone ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:50 PM – 30 Aug 2018

@nntaleb In contrast when you use a gamma distr (thinner tails than lognormal) one gets a power law… strange. Permalink 3:26 PM – 30 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Proof du jour … (May have a mistake somewhere). Permalink 1:38 PM – 30 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This fellow gets it.   Permalink 7:12 AM – 30 Aug 2018

@nntaleb What works on a small scale almost NEVER expands to large scale.   Permalink 4:04 AM – 30 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Coincidentally… What he means by “Greek” literature is … things for intellectuals.   Permalink 3:10 PM – 29 Aug 2018

REPLICATION CRISIS, Gabish, Monsanto, Donaldo, Saudi Barbaria, slaves, Nudge, trees, waiters | Twitter

@nntaleb Coincidentally… What he means by “Greek” literature is … things for intellectuals.   Permalink 3:10 PM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 4) People don’t realize the more severe problem is not absence of replication, rather the reduction of EFFECT for those that replicated. If you lower effect by ½, the odds of being observed in REAL LIFE decreases nonlinearly. From 2 sigmas to 1 sigma, down by 86%. Permalink 12:50 PM – 29 Aug 2018

@broketrout Just seeing this book title gave me nightmares.. Permalink 12:45 PM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Academics think in very low-resolution digital while humans see things in analog. Permalink 12:18 PM – 29 Aug 2018

@originalgibby Replication of findings in @sciencemagazine and @nature slightly better than a coin flip. Once again @nntaleb is correct.   Permalink 11:32 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) The REPLICATION CRISIS a VINDICATION for citizens SICK & TIRED of the Harvards w/a sense of entitlement treating practitioners as immature pple lost without their “science” when it is STATISTICALLY shown Harvards are no better than Ms Bré, fortune teller. Permalink 8:18 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 2) 2 ½ years ago I proved MATHEMATICALLY p-values need to be lowered by at least 1 order of magnitude. Now @BrianNosek et al, 75 authors mysteriously realize that p-values need to be lowered by…. 1 order of magnitude. List includes of course a bunch of Harvards I insulted. Permalink 7:32 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 1) We now have to face the fact that what is called “social science” and “evidence based” is scientifically shown to be equivalent to “bullshit vending”. Except less elegant, of course. Which brings us back to ancestral heuristics, #Lindy, #SkinintheGame   Permalink 7:21 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@ggreenwald 1/ In the wake of the @NewYorker profile, several people recommended I look at the ugly 2003 hit piece that magazine did on Chomsky (on the even of the Iraq War) & 2008 attack on Naomi Klein after “Shock Doctrine.” It is striking how they use the same expel-from-mainstream script Permalink 5:55 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb What happens to post-Monsanto shills? Predictably, they will do #shameless propaganda elsewhere. “Glyphosate Mark” @mark_lynas seems to have reconverted to promotion of… AlQaeda, helping propagandist @Charles_Lister do #pedophrasty w/fake pictures of dead children in Syria. Permalink 5:52 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I have been blocking nitpickers on “Gabish”. “Gabish” is to “Capisce” what “Gabagool” is to “Capicola”, what “Brozhut” is to “Prosciuto”, what “Avangool” is to [YOU FIGURE IT OUT]… Gabish? Permalink 5:14 AM – 29 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Free speech is something unconditional BY DEFINITION, not something reserved to what your ears enjoy hearing. Gabish? Permalink 7:17 PM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb You don’t seem to get what a utility means. Permalink 6:58 PM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb If someone told me 10 years ago that 1) The White House would be fighting CENSORSHIP by the media (not the other way around, while 2) The media accuses the White House of fascism, I would have called an ambulance.   Permalink 6:13 PM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The label “left” is a better disguise for the war machine/weapon makers. Hence the militaristic pseudo-left sills …   Permalink 2:17 PM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Iosif @iosif_lazaridis is part of a group that is revolutionizing history/archeology, putting them on FIRM scientific grounds, using potent statistics/combinatorics. Yes, indeed we can tell population migrations with a 10^-10 error rate. Thank you, Iosif & ignore journos.   Permalink 12:11 PM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) The Propaganda Times (formerly kn0wn as NYT) article misses that those who can’t do can’t do for a reason, an epistemological reason: they often know the wrong things. So we make pple who know the wrong things teach the wrong things for the sake of “pedagogy”. This is fraud. Permalink 11:42 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 2) Traditionally those “communicators” good at explaining are the charlatans, BS Vendors…   Permalink 10:19 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 1) The NYT vs #SkinInTheGame. It is very dangerous to favor those good at explaining but not understanding over people good at understanding but not explaining. Permalink 10:17 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I can vouch from Skin in THAT Game.   Permalink 9:25 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Nonvegetarian nongymmachines nonmillennial nonjournalists nonwhitecollarsalarymen nonactors weightlifters have wide waists. Gabish? #Lindy Permalink 7:34 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Someone needs to explain to the illustrator of @black_swan_man that nonvegetarian non-teenage non-gym-machines weightlifters have wide waists. (next tweet)   Permalink 7:30 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@LorenzoWVilla @nntaleb will like this: Eugenio Montale’s via negativa.   Permalink 6:49 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Actually most of it was done on Dec 31, 1999, about the best books of the 20th C. Things change… Permalink 6:44 AM – 28 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Either Jaffer needs an alibi to be in NY or we are doing something right @financequant   Permalink 4:05 PM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This was lifted from comments I made 10 years ago about 20th C novels. Of course the real thing (Dostoyevski) will be missing… Permalink 3:30 PM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Favorite Literature Books   Permalink 2:53 PM – 27 Aug 2018

@spyrosmakrid NOT ONLY CAUSALITIES BUT ALSO ASSOCIATIONS ARE HARD IN SOCIAL SCIENCES Ioannidis author of “Why Most Published Research Finding (in medicine) Are False”   just published a paper   showing that the nutritional field need radical reform. ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:49 AM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) To simplify, this is the #FooledbyRandomness effect: @paulkrugman is pontificating from NOISE, not signal, and the first thing one should teach students is to learn to make a difference between noise and signal. Permalink 5:32 AM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb From work/discussion with @financequant: BTC doesn’t even have a variance, steep power law. Permalink 5:15 AM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Statistically flawed statement: no such claims can be made under high variance power law. #SkinintheGame: if @paulkrugman had his own $ at risk, he would have been blowup on bitcoin up >10^4% & eliminated from the ecology… or eliminated from the ecology before even bitcoin…   Permalink 5:09 AM – 27 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Wars…   Permalink 3:07 PM – 26 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 5) What inspired the Greek/Roman metaphor is the incident when Cato expelled Greek philosophers & rhetors from Rome. Cato was fiercely anti-BS… (from Fooled by Randomness) Permalink 12:38 PM – 26 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 4) Discussion of “Roman” vs “Greek” in #Antifragile based on optionality, which is of course NOT LITERAL & unconditional but a general metaphor: In general, Romans were conscious of 2nd order effects all across, despised theory, tawkers, & vapid philosophising. Permalink 5:59 AM – 26 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Many have the illusion that builders used Euclidean geometry. We are lucky they didn’t: Euclidean geometry only entered architecture in modern times …causing the ugly nonfractal structures we have today. #Antifragile: how academics lie abt role of theory: they WRITE history. Permalink 5:47 AM – 26 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 1)PSYCHO-BS In #Antifragile: I was convinced that the theory that money does *not* bring happiness (beyond a level) was bogus in spite of the “evidence”: psychologists of happiness like $$ & Lindy effect. Turned out that research was psycho-BS, doesn’t replicate #SkinintheGame Permalink 5:33 AM – 26 Aug 2018

@DanielLMcAdams The “antiwar” opposition to the war machine. And no one will admit that we are a one-party state…   Permalink 9:07 PM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb BTW, Byzantines were diehard Roman. Greek was just a language. Permalink 2:49 PM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The real difference in politics isn’t the “right” vs “left” gradation but rather “Greek” vs “Roman”. + Greek = puts theory above practice + Roman= puts practice above theory Be Roman. Now. Permalink 2:47 PM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Using factorials (simpler) Permalink 11:12 AM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Steps on how Stirling was used for solution Permalink 10:21 AM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb OK, Saturday workout in remembrance of @CutTheKnotMath but not sure Maestro was crazy about gamma functions. cc: @SvetlanaBogom13 Permalink 7:31 AM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb In the absence of @CutTheKnotMath, a Saturday morning workout he would have liked (from Dan Sitaru). Permalink 5:32 AM – 25 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink Permalink 5:02 PM – 24 Aug 2018

@nntaleb εἶπεν δέ Ἀμὴν λέγω ὑμῖν ὅτι οὐδεὶς προφήτης δεκτός ἐστιν ἐν τῇ πατρίδι αὐτοῦ.   Permalink 4:38 PM – 24 Aug 2018

@black_swan_man Thanks @RonPaul. You are a real world superhero. In the Black Swan Man comic, what should your super powers be?   Permalink 1:02 PM – 24 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Black Swan man fighting central banksters and the enemies of Satoshi. …but can someone explain to the cartoonist weightlifters have wider waists?   Permalink 8:09 AM – 24 Aug 2018

@nntaleb New Title: The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails becomes Real-World Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails Permalink 7:00 AM – 24 Aug 2018

@ban_kanj No, this isn’t the Amalfi coast.. it’s Southern Lebanon #Naquoura #Lebanon Permalink 6:41 AM – 24 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Monsanto has commonalities w/Theranos & Madoff, court papers show Made claims from SAFETY studies they NEVER did Lobbied, bullied regulators by infiltrating the system Owned “science” journalists & “rational” crowd Smear campaigns ag scientists (yours truly), ruining careers   Permalink 6:19 AM – 24 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The good news: Forbes & Project Syndicate fired Monsanto shill @henryimiller & removed all past articles. But I cannot believe some journos like Tamar Haspel known to be colluding with Monsanto are still writing in newspapers like @washingtonpost   Permalink 6:09 AM – 24 Aug 2018

@DanielLMcAdams How sick that Obama decided to let crazed, head-chopping jihadists loose on these good Christian people. And how sad that Trump is too blind to see what’s really going on in Syria. There will be hell to pay for the murder of these innocents. Literally.   Permalink 6:15 PM – 23 Aug 2018

@MccluskyMark People seem to get it, even if their spelling is a little phunny. Permalink 1:50 PM – 23 Aug 2018

@restoration_x Taleb has discussed and developed Pareto a great deal. Perhaps it is no coincidence that they even ook remarkably similar.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 1:11 PM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I’d rather live in a society where people complain about lawyers than one in which they don’t.   Permalink 7:52 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) For instance Monsanto’s Eric Sachs @ericsachsPhD who was behind the smear campaign against us & others (collusion with fake journo @keithkloor & Co), retired after the merger. But I will make sure he & others pay some stiff penalty at some point in the rest of their lives. Permalink 7:48 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 2) From what I understand about mergers, former Monsanto executives can be easily sued by Bayer for stuff they did not disclose or for past malpractice. And I am certain Bayer wasn’t aware of the stuff revealed by court papers. Permalink 7:39 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The beginning of the end…   Permalink 7:19 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Enfin, la France…   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 5:58 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Solution Permalink 5:15 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb That was quick. The idea of #skininthegame made it to Homeland Security…   Permalink 5:13 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@maalaukong I still can’t believe I had the gut to train barbell when no doctors and people around me would advise me do that. But I read Antifragile -and after lifting for months I am fine now still thank you Permalink 5:10 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Morning Quiz. From Dan Sitaru/Romanian Mathematical Magazine. Permalink 4:45 AM – 23 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 2) Helenus: on the difference between engineering and reverse engineering. History is HARDER than it seems. Permalink 2:51 PM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 1) The story of Helenus @MarkAnthonySPQR as an illustration of the difference between forward and backward equation   Permalink 2:49 PM – 22 Aug 2018

@yaneerbaryam Really important work on reporting and citation bias effects on treatment for depression. And there is more not included. ht @nilskappelmann @nntaleb   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:54 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Stefan Gasic @NonMeek summarizes my new book The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails (Technical Incerto, Vol 1)   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:28 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@NonMeek Bitte schön. Otherwise okay? Permalink 8:13 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) Something tactical that Netanyahu is starting to get but Donaldo (& predecessors) never figured out: if you HELP the population w/something practical, makes it more favorable to you. Netanyahu is offering Iranians solutions for their water problems…   Permalink 5:54 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb As a matter of fact sanctions in Iran (by removing market forces) benefit the rent-seeking circles close to the regime, and hurt those they purport to save from said regime… Something about the lack of mental clarity on the part of bureaucrats. Permalink 5:33 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Maybe… but one thing for sure; @mikeduncan has shown solid evidence of shoddy & unreliable intellectual behavior. And history requires intellectual integrity.   Permalink 5:27 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Donaldo, sanctions have worked only ONCE in history: S. Africa (even then, unsure). They punish the weak in populations: Iraq, Syria, Lybia, Iran … those you yourself identify as victims of regimes. They thwart commerce that brings peace. Highly unrigorous DC IYI thinking.   Permalink 5:15 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@BLebnene Eh, ma3ak 7a22:   Permalink 4:14 AM – 22 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Reminds me of a certain book…   Permalink 1:43 PM – 21 Aug 2018

@InsperLiber A partir da análise da obra de Nassim Taleb, Ariel Bozza aborda o delicado problema das minorias intolerantes. Link na bio! #taleb #economia #política #filosofia #ensaio #minorityrule #eleicoes2018 #religião #liberdade #liderança Permalink 8:51 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Now the news is that they may not have beheaded her “YET”. No difference. Permalink 8:13 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@Mat_Heart “Ceterum censeo saudi barbariam esse delendam.” Talebus Permalink 7:26 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Interesting how Saudi shills think they can make you can believe one furthers US security interests by beheading Shiite women who complain abt gov. treatment. From experience w/Monsanto & Saudi Barbatian shills, e.g. @dietwaldclaus: it’s the last resort job for the total loser. Permalink 7:07 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Saudi Barbaria, not Saudi Arabia. Delenda Saudi Barbaria.   Permalink 6:53 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The style… Permalink 4:18 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I just bought San-Antonio, tome 8 : Bravo, docteur Béru ! ; Viva Bertaga ! ; Un éléphant ça trompe ; Faut… @AbeBooks   Permalink 4:02 AM – 21 Aug 2018

@OZmandia @TuckerGoodrich and @gillespi Have been shouting from the rooftops the dangers of Seed Oils for yonks! Maybe @nntaleb comment will bring it home:   SEED OILS ARE A SCAM ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:05 PM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb It is also BIGOTRY to replace male privilege by the female one.   Permalink 12:17 PM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) This plus the arrival of the “J” later in the Bronze age explains why the Levant has a mitocondrial DNA much closer to Northern Europe: Lebanon closer to France than to Cyprus. Permalink 11:51 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Which vindicates the theory that 1) Ashkenazis’ light eyes don’t not come from “Khazars” or as per some other half-baked theory, but from the original population 2) the 20% light eyes found in Lebanon/North Syria don’t come from crusaders, but are largely indigenous   Permalink 11:39 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb If and only If the Markov Chain is ergodic. cc:@yaneerbaryam @ole_b_peters   Permalink 11:28 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Influent BS vendors lose their influence the minute they close their mouth or put their pen to rest. Just a tiny bit of silence and they are gone. Permalink 10:38 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb But you only get the tail for a function by avoiding sigmoidal transformations   Permalink 8:09 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb My favorite @NonMeek cartoon by far: “The difference between absence of evidence and evidence of absence is at least 50 IQ points”   Permalink 7:34 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Polygenic predictors have a humongous error rate.   Permalink 6:47 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@GuruAnaerobic Add to the category: ‘LIFE CHANGING OPPORTUNITY’   Permalink 6:27 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The next uncovered scam will be seed oil, particularly corn oil, which has been passing for “healthy” w/o evidence nor time tested uses, nor any direct evidence it is healthier than butter. Instead of high carb/low carb, consider: w/ or w/o seed oil, grains … cc: @Mangan150 Permalink 6:13 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 500 years, @KenDBerryMD, but good enough.   Permalink 6:01 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb REAL WORLD RISK SCHOLARSHIPS Friends, scholarships (by @financequant & myself) are available for the 9th program Oct 22-26, in NY. We have been giving on average 5 women scholarships & 5 general ones.   Permalink 5:54 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This is what @spyrosmakrid seems to be telling us: #ML doesn’t get the tails because nobody can get the tails from past data.   Permalink 4:00 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Eisen has been supporting Monsanto & the GMO BS. Worse: Plos-1 withdrew an Op-Ed by @thackerpd under pressure from Monsanto. Permalink 3:58 AM – 20 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Trishank @trishankkarthik summarized the tawk in a series of tweets: just note that I prefaced (par.) “as a scholar I don’t want to a good speaker, good speakers are usually charlatans”   Permalink 3:05 PM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I mean Corneille Permalink 1:23 PM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb My lecktchur on #skininthegame: No guts no glory, no risk no victory, adapted from Racine: ” A vaincre sans péril on triomphe sans gloire”, itself adapted from Seneca: Ignominiam iudicat gladiator cum inferiore componi et scit eum sine gloria uinci qui sine periculo uincitur… Permalink 1:01 PM – 19 Aug 2018

@yaneerbaryam Two heuristics for nonergodicity @nntaleb @ole_b_peters   Permalink 9:30 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Traditionally, learned pple & erudites have voiced contempt for the half-read or semi-learned, such as journo @JonahNRO, never for the non-read person of action. Semi-learned pple s.a. Goldberg resemble cars with two wheels missing. You are much better off walking.   Permalink 8:32 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Skin in the game in Lebanese proverbs: bil 7ikam l-Lébnéniyyé: + Ma bi7ékkak illa difrak + S2al mjarréb wla tes2al 7akim + Ghaltét l-shater 2alf ghalta (shater hown = “khabir”) + Kill shi rkhis ghalé + Iza ma kébrét ma-zéghrét (nonlinearity) Permalink 7:03 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 2) Here is @Michael_Spagat, @sapinker’s support, pestering us for data in order to find “flaws”… doesn’t understand the stochasticity of sample correlation, which inspired this talk.   Permalink 5:53 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 1) There is something green about “quant” @Michael_Spagat and this paper (cont)   Permalink 5:51 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Addition   Permalink 4:56 AM – 19 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Nice to meet twitter friends in person   Permalink 11:14 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@nntaleb A lot of antiwar people in DC… Permalink 10:17 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb at #RonPaul! Permalink 8:52 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@ggreenwald Almost 100,000 people re-tweeted @JohnBrennan moronically & recklessly accusing Trump of *treason* for his Helsinki press conference, only for him now to casually admit it wasn’t & deny he said it. Brennan is a pathological liar, a torture advocate, a killer & a #Resistance icon:   Permalink 8:49 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@SocratesSophia @nntaleb thanks for publicly resisting Monsanto before anyone mainstream did. Thanks also for resisting over educated close minds with their own academic languagem You’ve exemplified courage and now the tide is turning in your favour. Also, God is important. Thank you!! Permalink 4:26 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@SocratesSophia9 @nntaleb thanks for publicly resisting Monsanto before anyone mainstream did. Thanks also for resisting over educated close minds with their own academic languagem You’ve exemplified courage and now the tide is turning in your favour. Also, God is important. Thank you!! Permalink 4:26 AM – 18 Aug 2018

@nntaleb (I don’t like to see my own books in ky library) Permalink 12:37 PM – 17 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Unfortunately, in my own house, I can’t display my own books…   Permalink 10:50 AM – 17 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Finally! The Black Swan man is about Bitcoin. (still that waist is that of a dance instructor)   Permalink 7:52 AM – 17 Aug 2018

@yaneerbaryam Dynamics of Complex Systems pages 131-2: Time histories of stochastic dynamical systems (Surprise: they are equivalent to equilibrium ensembles, but unusual ones). Permalink 3:56 AM – 17 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Bayer: investors coming out of denial, slowly realizing that GMOs are the scam of the century. Permalink 3:47 AM – 17 Aug 2018

@spyrosmakrid ML METHODS AND FORECASTING Two interesting reports discuss AI/ML and their relevance to real life problems   These reports confirm our papers about the poor performance of ML models   Permalink 1:03 AM – 17 Aug 2018

@nntaleb While Monsanto can lobby in DC, bully, soft-bribe & manipulate regulators, and intimidate & smears scientists (like yours truly), Bayer as a foreign-owned corporation can’t easily do so. Bayer lost ~20% since the Monsanto trial (another 4% today). Permalink 12:47 PM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb If, in some wealthy communities, you run into people who look like cousins, it is more probable that they use the same plastic surgeon. Permalink 10:36 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Some mathematics behind the simulation. Permalink 10:17 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Mathematical Finance Du Jour. Where I show how a power law mimics stochastic volatility. Permalink 10:09 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@RobertKennedyJr Wow! #Monsanto loses another court case over its widely used weed killer. #MonsantoTrial   Permalink 9:06 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Does someone have data on the longevity of airline pilots (jet engine). We have data for flight attendants & radiation therapists, but pilots have 1) lower load, 2) aren’t allowed to take sleeping pills. cc:@Mangan150 @GuruAnaerobic @MichaelSagnerMD   Permalink 7:02 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb During Roman times, children’s educators were usually slaves. Nothing has changed. The principal thing a slave can teach children is how to not be free and make the best of it. In other words, how to think like a slave. Gabish?   Permalink 6:34 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Getting ready to go to the city with the highest density of rent seekers, to deliver a lecktchur on hidden rent seeking & the effect on systemic risk. Will also talk about regulatory recapture: Monsanto owns the EPA/FDA but NOT the court system; how common law is robust.   Permalink 5:59 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb There is something irremediably sad at an atheist’s funeral. Permalink 5:13 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb And no, most humans do NOT want to be liberated from monotonous tasks, except for (parts of) the weekend. Most want the soothing predictability of a schedule, even those who call themselves “adventurers”. Permalink 5:02 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Routine is effortless. Most humans, alas, prefer to expend physical, never intellectual energy. Creating requires much, much more effort.   Permalink 4:55 AM – 16 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The boss: Antonio. Permalink 5:07 PM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Squid Ink, finally. California looks Mediterranean, ma non è la cosa reale. Nova York looks nonMed, but it’s just an accident of geography. Permalink 5:01 PM – 15 Aug 2018

@The_Cyrenian While the ignorant masses were busy watching Obama dance on Ellen and crack jokes on Jimmy Fallon, my fellow Syrian Christians and I were suffering at the hands of #Obama and #Hillary’s genocidal foreign-policy:   Permalink 1:42 PM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The counter coup-d’etat is completed.   Permalink 1:25 PM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Any work you do in the comfort of a routine risks being taken over by a robot. Permalink 12:30 PM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The answer to Maestro Bogomolny who has time to critique it in Heaven: Finally found the probabilistic interpretation: the Cantelli bound. Permalink 10:44 AM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Ole, nobody ever broke a mafia & rent-seeking clubs by being “generous and kind”! Nudgeboys Thaler & Sunstein feel entitled to manipulate citizens, increasing tail risk! Sunstein wants to prevent citizens from knowing if food has GMOs When you go, go for the jugular! Permalink 10:13 AM – 15 Aug 2018

@DrMichaelBonner I owe all my academic success to the squat and the deadlift:   Permalink 6:06 AM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I’m out of here. Permalink 5:54 AM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The cult of the youth (by the youth) results from an elementary logical fallacy. If 90% of successful innovations come from the young, less than 1/1000 of innovations by youth work. Statistically, youth correlates w/mediocrity, sloth, physical weakness, & lack of creativity. Permalink 5:00 AM – 15 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Computational irreducibility: by @stephen_wolfram , explains why the consequences of some stuff like GMOs cannot be understood the way Monsanto claims…   Permalink 9:13 PM – 14 Aug 2018

@nntaleb And (aggressively) vegetarian. Permalink 8:21 PM – 14 Aug 2018

@nntaleb San Francisco: tatooed millennials with the wrong type of attitude problem, overcrowding in overpriced tenements. Permalink 7:44 PM – 14 Aug 2018

@Decafquest “As for scholars, I respect their labour and have drawn great benefits from it, but the fact is that at the banquet of philosophy they are neither the cooks nor the gourmets but the waiters that run between the two.” – Bryan Magee #skininthegame #philosophy #academia Permalink 2:27 PM – 14 Aug 2018

@GMWatch Corruption of science by the agrochemical industry: #Monsanto flooded scientific journals with ghostwritten articles   New peer-reviewed source details Monsanto’s deceptive activities ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:28 AM – 14 Aug 2018

@nntaleb At the core of what pple are not getting (from @ole_b_peters expl.) is that making $110 vs losing $100 with 50% probability is not a state-space issue, but part of a sequential procedure dynamically repeated over time, with required edge (here $5) changing as one makes or loses. Permalink 5:41 AM – 14 Aug 2018

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DU JOUR “mni7” in Lebanese, meaning “fine”, does not seem to come from the Arabic المَنْحُ: العطاء (grant), rather from from the Aramaic “peaceful”,”content”, Heb מָנוֹחַ (unless I am mistaken, cc:@Jonassibony ) Permalink 11:30 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The powerful thing about this inequality is that, for finite samples Xs= {X_1, X_2,…,X_n}, w/average m, n odd (for small samples) and Xi copies of X drawn from ANY probability distribution in R, not even IID, E((Xs-m)^2)>Median(Xs)^2, even if all moments of X are infinite! Permalink 7:23 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Finally started a math “blog”. There are incomplete problems by @CutTheKnotMath. cc:@SvetlanaBogom13, @gcfr20, @mikeandallie, @long, @octonion, etc.   Permalink 5:46 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Where some aspects of the point are fleshed out   Permalink 4:32 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Why Nudge and Behavioral Economics are PseudoScience, a summary Permalink 4:28 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Ole Peters quietly informing nudgeboy @R_Thaler that his understanding of his own subject matter (probabilistic decision making) is highly deficient.   Permalink 4:08 AM – 13 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Mr @teppofelin, one never debates a bulls***ter. Permalink 4:50 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@primalpoly We’re recruiting subjects aged 18+ for a psychology study on religious art. It’s an online survey that takes about 45 minutes. It includes ratings and memory tests for about 90 religious images. If interested, please go to   Permalink 4:04 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb About 6 y ago, a B-School prof, @teppofelin, BS vendor type, couldn’t get #Antifragile & was nasty about it. He was teaching “entrepreneurship” while being on a salary. Academics don’t notice these things. Permalink 4:00 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb You are more likely to change your mind from a bad argument from someone on your initial side than a good argument from someone on the other side. Permalink 2:28 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@Lentejitas These are some of @nntaleb’s Black Swans ;-) Have a good night! Permalink 1:29 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb For some reason B-School Profs (living on charities) think they are smarter (less “irrational”) than real world risk takers when they are clueless about the math (ergodicity+fat tails). Flaws by finance prof (@WGoetzmann) who think TBS is an “airport book” Permalink 12:04 PM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Next step: Business Schools; ban teaching by nonpractitioners.   Permalink 11:20 AM – 12 Aug 2018

@EdLatimore “Ironically, by being beggars, they had the equivalent of ‘f*** you money’, which we can more easily get by being at the lowest rung than by joining the income-dependent classes.” @nntaleb, Skin in The Game Permalink 8:30 AM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Posted TECHNICAL INCERTO, VOL 1: THE STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS (~300 pages)   via @academia Permalink 7:14 AM – 12 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Our planet has many more trees than 35 years ago! Looks like people notice deforestation, but not reforestation. Media & UN reports by self serving bureaucrats who want to “solve” your problems. ALWAYS get stuff by systematic analysis, NEVER piecemeal observations. Permalink 5:04 AM – 12 Aug 2018

@BLebnene Localism ≠ Nationalism @nntaleb L maxalliye ≠ l çawmiyye   Permalink 2:39 AM – 12 Aug 2018

@KenDBerryMD Retweet if you think we need Nassim Taleb to help us straighten out medical/nutrition research!!! Permalink 6:43 PM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I am very rude to *high status* people who are rude to waiters/waitresses. Usually twice as rude. Sometimes three times, just to make sure. You cannot believe how many pple on the “left” are rude to waiters, as they feel their “mission” insulates them from humans #Skininthegame   Permalink 12:15 PM – 11 Aug 2018

@BLebnene Çahammiyet l kitébé bel lebnéné, video la Nassim Taleb: #lebanese #lebnene   Permalink 10:58 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@black_swan_man Page 10… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #ludicfallacy #antifragile #infinitegames #daoofcapital Permalink 10:16 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb That’s next   Permalink 10:07 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb   Permalink 10:05 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@M_Gauche “We define “rude” less by the words used than by the status of the recipient.” – @nntaleb Permalink 8:21 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb You lower *regulatory recapture* by having fewer regulations (as w/medication: only when the court/tort system doesn’t help). Put skin into the game of corporations. ( Pple hearing my shouts when the news hit wondered what soccer game I was following)   Permalink 6:42 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@JohnMinehan1 Which is Nicholas Nassim Taleb’s point . . . .   Permalink 4:28 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@Decafquest ma2al zghir katabto 3an 2este3mel l lebnene ka legha maktoobe. Shu ra2yak? @nntaleb #lebanese #lebanon #lebnene   Permalink 4:12 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This nightmare “Chased by Monsanto” (from @black_swan_man) is over. Now time for payback. I mean find the *individuals* involved. Permalink 3:20 AM – 11 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Sweet victory…. It is particularly powerful that the legal system (torts) protects citizens, while regulators are in collusion w/industry: the EPA/FDA let Monsanto ghostwrite their rules. Regulators are bribed by industry as they get hired later as payback. #SkinInTheGame Permalink 5:55 PM – 10 Aug 2018

@nntaleb They didn’t just lose a case. They lost another 100. Now I will go after the shills who contacted NYU. Permalink 3:29 PM – 10 Aug 2018

@nntaleb CHAMPAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGNE!!!!!!!!!!!!! Monsanto lost the trial. It is not about Glyphosate. It’s that the manipulation of science by corporations, the bullying of scientists does not pay!   Permalink 3:26 PM – 10 Aug 2018

@OpenSecretsDC OpenSecrets searchable ‘Foreign Lobby Watch’ database makes it easier than ever to browse through disclosures related to foreign influence in the US:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:58 AM – 10 Aug 2018

@PenguinVerlag In welcher Welt leben wir – was meint ihr? @nntaleb verrät uns seine Sicht in »Das Risiko und sein Preis«. Ab 27.08. erhältlich:   #SkinintheGame ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:17 AM – 10 Aug 2018

@alessabocchi Can someone check if the NYT has recently taken any funds from Saudi Arabia?   Permalink 1:41 PM – 9 Aug 2018

@georgemacgill Today I Learnt: WITTGENSTEIN’S RULER Don’t just use your beliefs to measure reality, but also use reality to measure your beliefs. If the IDIOT keeps getting it right, it might not be them who is the idiot @nntaleb Permalink 12:38 PM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb What Saudi Barbaria is doing to Canada is simple signaling: to show other states what’s in store if they criticize their human rights. The problem of course … Permalink 11:37 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb You may use his Lebanese dictionary and write in social media script (3al 3adé). My opinion is that an Ataturk style precise top-down alphabet is not necessary.   Permalink 11:06 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@holland_tom I remember in the summer of 2014 the eyes of the world being so fixed on Gaza – where, brutal though the conflict was, no genocide was remotely being attempted – that it pretty much ignored Sinjar, where the Yazidis were absolutely the targets of genocide.   Permalink 9:47 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb So effectively, thanks to Roger Makhluf, Lebanese ceased to be a dialect on Aug 8, 2018. Permalink 9:30 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@UnSubtleDesi [Archives] Economists bullshit for a living : ⁦@nntaleb⁩ gives Kaushik Basu a lesson on ‘Skin in the Game’   Permalink 8:29 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Finally, A Lebanese-English dictionary/Lexicon. 630 pages! (Arabists won’t like it)   Permalink 7:36 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@baielala “Almost all those caught making a logical fallacy interpret it as a ‘disagreement’.” – @nntaleb   Permalink 7:25 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb We are prone to epidemics of fallacies (scientism, universalism, academism, psychosociologism, stateworshipism), but not epidemics of wisdom, as nature filters out those with bad immune system. Permalink 5:34 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The NYT needs to sell more and more subscriptions to stay in the same place. Concave growth. (The rise in stock price was largely due to the maahket’s.) Indeed, this is a dying business. Unethical journalism doesn’t pay. Permalink 4:14 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Financial Maahkets aren’t fooled by the NYT “growth” story: + Close to saturation for digital subscriptions ~(40% from crossword puzzles!), now < logarithmic. + Rev. growth is not good. Ain’t a tech company! + The “Anti-Trump” strategy deligitimizes long term.   Permalink 3:31 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@NonMeek Here’s my contribution to this thread. As a cartoonist my main challenge is to simplify any issue as much as possible without losing any of the meaning. I hope I succeeded in that with this comic strip. #LifeExpectancy #Math Permalink 3:21 AM – 9 Aug 2018

@ClarkeMicah Still maundering, Professor? Amazed by my own magnanimity, I am *still* offering you the chance to withdraw the foolish defamatory statement which you are incapable of substantiating. Come on, man, do what you need to do.   Permalink 10:55 PM – 8 Aug 2018

@ClarkeMicah Still maundering, Professor? Amazed by my own magnanimity, I am *still* offering you the chance to withdraw the foolish defamatory statement which you are incapable of substantiating. Come on, man, do what you need to do.   Permalink 10:55 PM – 8 Aug 2018

@nntaleb When your company is public you become the slave/depend on the opinion of the most clueless but vocal journalist, say @BretStephensNYT. No matter how rich, you never have f*** you money. Go private; f*** them.   Permalink 9:06 PM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The point as presented 20 year ago in Fooled by Randomness. Permalink 1:10 PM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This is the offending statement. It is not whether the number is true or false, it is that the REASONING is false. Permalink 12:31 PM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The correct (evolutionary) way to see what happens is: +Life expectancy while reaching full (socially accepted) reproductive age, i.e. ~15-25. Which will be much higher: In the previous example it would be 67. So childhood mortality removed 27 years of “average” life exp! Permalink 12:14 PM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Simply, if 40% died in childbirth (or very young, which is about historical number), 50% died at 60, and 10% died at 92, the “average” life expectation would be ~40. Childhood mortalily hugely skews the average. Permalink 12:04 PM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Thread of pple on twitter who understand statistics (and the notion of average) much much better than the @nytimes : life expectancy = 40 means a lot of infant mortality, not that people didn’t live long. Please, please, please avoid the NY Times. Please.   Permalink 8:54 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3500 years of Phoenician wine Permalink 7:03 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Now a disclaimer: one greatgrandmother and one great great grandmother are from Douma. (Douma is Greek Orthodox/Melkite) Permalink 4:52 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The surrounding gorges. Douma’s advantage is that it is out of the way and on the local top of a mountain; no ski no nonsense. Permalink 4:24 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Tomb ~ 600 (priest of the goddess of health) Permalink 3:28 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Douma, most beautiful village both architecturally and scenically. Former Byzantine health spot. Church built in 1610. Permalink 3:23 AM – 7 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Turned out the main beneficiaries of fossil fuel were the trees: people used to log for cooking/heating. At least until now. Permalink 11:26 PM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Even if one accepts risk aversion, it doesn’t work the way nudgeboy @R_Thaler thinks it does. Permalink 11:16 PM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The vicious thing in @josephinequinn’s Vox article is that she doesn’t flatly deny that Phoenicians existed; she just packages her anachronistic argument (absence of passport & flag-style national “identity”) to make you believe that they never existed. Shoddy. Permalink 2:31 PM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb More than 5,500 years   Permalink 12:57 PM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The cartoonist understands my language ( “myopic bureaucrat imbeciles” ) but doesn’t get that a thin waist is not for weightlifters.   Permalink 12:01 PM – 6 Aug 2018

@sidpathak92 What a Saudi govt handle tweeted before deleting. But sure it is the Persians who are the enemy. @nntaleb Permalink 10:18 AM – 6 Aug 2018

@RogerCremades How do #rigidity traps work in #socio-#ecological #systems? Amazingly, this comics explains it with pristine clarity. I congratulate @black_swan_man & @nntaleb. More on rigidity traps, the #adaptivecycle, risks, insurance and climate change here   Permalink 7:11 AM – 6 Aug 2018

@thackerpd Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) as Invasive Species   You’ll never see any #GMO promoting journalist discuss this paper, because the only thing they yammer about is “#GMO products are safe to consume, so end of story.” Permalink 5:24 AM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Why did the Crisis happen? This is from my testimony, what Obama’s bureaucrats did not want to report. (Also I withdrew the paper from a journal owing to stupid comments by referee, republished elsewhere) Permalink 12:39 AM – 6 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Turned out, @realDavidGal has shown, “Risk Aversion” is a fiction.   Permalink 12:26 AM – 6 Aug 2018

@ziadaboujamra @nntaleb The view from Dhour El Choueir yesterday. Green indeed! Permalink 11:10 PM – 5 Aug 2018

@black_swan_man Page 9… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #yellowstoneeffect #wildfire #endthefed #daoofcapital #antifragile Permalink 7:43 PM – 5 Aug 2018

@SamuelGWalters Alexander Bogomolny liked inequalities, so here is one on his behalf. (I came across it while doing estimate calculations.) @CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb @SvetlanaBogom13 #math #FunFact Permalink 1:53 PM – 5 Aug 2018

@nntaleb A lot of docs written in Phoenician were lost, but a lot of Phoenicians wrote in lingua franca later (Greek) as was the norm in Levant after 3nd Century BC, same as Indians writing in English now. Does it make Josephus count as non Jewish? Permalink 1:26 PM – 5 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Lack of skin in the game. (Photo taken before heavy deadlifting phase)   Permalink 12:24 PM – 5 Aug 2018

NYT, Osteocalcin, Lebanon, Reforestation, Bayesianistas | Twitter

On the Shadow Moments of Apparently Infinite-Mean Phenomena Authors Nassim Nicholas Taleb & Pasquale Cirillo

@nntaleb The idea of #skininthegame is that nobody shd cause risk to others without impunity.   Permalink 9:36 AM – 5 Aug 2018

@nntaleb BS vending @josephinequinn is spreading theory that “Phoenicians didn’t exist”(loved by Arabists) on anachronistic acct of absence of national identity/self-designator (No Ph. integrated centralized rule). The Neanderthals never existed by same analysis. Same for Elephants… Permalink 9:29 AM – 5 Aug 2018

@spyrosmakrid This is the updated Outline of the paper “Forecasting in Social Sciences: State of the Art”. I would like to thank all those who send me comments and suggestions for improvements. I hope I have incorporated them correctly, given the constrain of not having > than 4 bullet points Permalink 7:59 AM – 5 Aug 2018

@yaneerbaryam The Precautionary Principle is considered by Court of Justice of the EU as an anchor of European Law in ruling that affects use of CRISPR genetic modification   @normonics @nntaleb @rupertread @PrecPrinciple Permalink 5:23 AM – 5 Aug 2018

@brian_trollz You harassed a man who had nothing to do with Bitcoin, based on nothing but what could only be interpreted as “evidence” in the mind of a deranged stalker, and you enjoyed being supported in that? Good to know. Permalink 6:15 PM – 4 Aug 2018

@spyrosmakrid I am working on part of a paper on “Forecasting in Social Sciences: State of the Art” to be part of the Special Issue of the International Journal of Forecasting on the M4 Competition.. Any comments, suggestions, differences, objections will be welcomed. Permalink 10:10 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This is the upper portion of the Qadisha (pronounced here “2odisha”) valley today. You can see the rising tree-line from reforestation. Permalink 9:56 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The mountain had been terraced to farm staples (mostly wheat) & trees were of no use (except for fruit bearing ones). Unseen positive side effect of Ottoman Christian Millets inheritance laws. Permalink 9:29 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@normonics “risk denialists” is a better term. I’m going to go with that Better reveals their standing as ideologues   Permalink 7:12 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@nntaleb This forest in Northern Lebanon (7adat) is owed to the fact that it was agrigultural land & the owners died w/the Titanic. Nobody could get the right papers to farm. Permalink 4:37 AM – 4 Aug 2018

@EHSANI22 With all mixed reactions to @RaniaKhalek article below, it’s important to stay focused on the subject of reconciliation as a policy tool compared to the national land top down approach of Geneva that was pushed by a number of policy makers at the time. Small is beautiful @nntaleb   Permalink 1:08 PM – 3 Aug 2018

@primalpoly BTW, I don’t want the @NYTimesPR to fire Jeong. Demanding a firing implies some faith that a company could rediscover its ethical compass. Rather, I’m supporting a consumer boycott of a moribund newspaper that’s proven itself wickedly prejudiced & hopelessly partisan. Permalink 11:52 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb It’s not like when the NYT condoned/caused the Iraq invasion out of ignorance / arrogance. This is a blatant violation of fundamental ethics. Permalink 7:50 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Never compromise on fundamental ethics. Never. Be honorable and never read anything in the @nytimes Permalink 7:16 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb With left to right @PZalloua, Hareth (Aretas) Boustany, & Hiram Corm (son of Charles Corm) at the Charles Corm foundation. Permalink 6:29 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@Once_there_was_   A great provoking read by @nntaleb especially in current climate. Will always remember @nytimes apology letter. Permalink 6:22 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Too disgusted to talk to the @nytimes Permalink 2:27 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Stability is owed to the following: Christians believe Lebanon is the first stop in the West (Europa was Phoenician); Sunnis believe Lebanon is the last stop in the East; Shiites (now) believe Lebanon is just Lebanon. Permalink 2:18 AM – 3 Aug 2018

@NickSzabo4 The more San Francisco code censors this topic, the more I’m going to retweet the many great censored tweets on it. The New York Times has with no remorse hired a pathological racist and sexist fuck to edit and write on technology and the people who have or are building it.   Permalink 11:23 PM – 2 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I guess the NYT didn’t “fact check” historical pictures   Permalink 6:27 AM – 2 Aug 2018

@nntaleb The Shouf mountains this morning: much greener than in 1900. Permalink 4:45 AM – 2 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Statistics is not being fooled by randomness, not reading coffee cups and neo-astrology. If you don’t get it, then you get blocked. Permalink 2:07 PM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb I won’t say what it is; the mother of all paleo food in an Armenian-Aleppo rstrnt in Central Phoenicia. Permalink 12:32 PM – 1 Aug 2018

@Ekaitzsaies ANNOUNCEMENT: On the 10th of October we are going to organise a meet-up in Orio (Basque Country) to talk about @nntaleb ´s ideas. Permalink 11:31 AM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb So far in 2018, 6 peer-reviewed papers, 2 with @DrCirillo, 4 as single author.   Permalink 7:58 AM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb Menu written in Lebanez Permalink 4:24 AM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb With the archeologist and Phoenicologist Hareth (Aretas) Boustany, who turned out to be the father of twitter friend ⁦@BoustanyMazen⁩ (and son of mega-erudite Fouad Ephrem) Permalink 4:14 AM – 1 Aug 2018

@nntaleb 3) We know that osteocalcin restores muscle endurance. Muscles strength are less investigated. Again fughedabout mechanisms, take phenomenology: @CoachRippetoe reports that only heavy weight bearing exercises you do standing up count. Permalink 1:04 PM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) The bone also regulates memory and mental functions via osteocalcin (Karsenty). SPECULATION: can healthier bones for overweight pple explain the all-cause-mortality effect? POLICY: just follow the phenomenology that healthy pplw have healthy bones and ignore mechanisms? Permalink 12:47 PM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) Antifragile on health of bones: bones are part of the endocrine system, not some engineering structure. You don’t improve your bone with exercise machine. @Mangan150 attributes the fertility crisis to correlative (Om 6), not causative (osteopenia) #Complexity #ICCS2018 Permalink 12:44 PM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Saudi Barbaria controls the monoculture narrative.   Permalink 11:06 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb And avoid the fossil fuel propaganda: the greening does not come from CO2 but rather from irrigation… correlates to GDP. Permalink 8:03 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb So another BEFORE-AFTER, Deir l 2amar 1900-2018 Permalink 6:39 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Took this picture yesterday in Kfar7azir coming from the Med. The hill was completely barren during my childhood. And this is a picture of Deir el 2amar in ~1900 Permalink 6:31 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The problem with low-skilled intellektshuals and journos s.a. @robGmacfarlane and the “brilliant” @ABarnardNYT is that they think they understand technical things & impose fortune cookie thinking on Leb ecology or the Syrian war. BS Vendors   Permalink 6:24 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@SvetlanaBogom13 Flying up high and still in earthly colors. Alexander’s photo from his last winter on this plain@CutTheKnotMath Permalink 5:51 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink Permalink 4:20 AM – 31 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Geoff and Vince have a powerful view of the naturalistic preferences of city dwellers.   Permalink 4:35 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 4) In other words, we have to live with the fact that some languages may not have hierarchical family trees. Permalink 3:28 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 3) Even Greenberg’s broader classification of branches is, scientifically speaking, grossly pulled out of a hat. (We are seeing some laterality uncovered by @Safaitic, which means ignore “dialects” as “branches” for now and focus on something structural). Permalink 3:20 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) @iosif_lazaridis mentioned how older, “just so” taxonomies turned out to not map to the trees made *on the fly* before phylogenetics (sequncng) My bone is tagging Levantine as *branch of*Arabic as proposed by @PhDniX and @lameensouag rather than, the reverse or *laterality* Permalink 3:20 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) The point I stressed is that, unlike genetics that is based on hard science, we should ignore traditional linguistics with its”on the fly” classifications, particularly the horribly sorry state of Semitic linguistics.   Permalink 3:20 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Current Lebanon has been mysteriously internally stable (now for three decades) partly because every single ethnoreligious group is now a minority (Christians, Shiites, Sunnis, etc.) There is neither minority nor majority rule (Tocqueville’s dream). @PZalloua Permalink 2:40 PM – 30 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Defending @elonmusk … but still the waist is thin.   Permalink 8:46 AM – 30 Jul 2018

@DavidBCollum Seems to me that Stephen Hadley, Ratheon director, should be investigated, if appropriate, tried for treason, and, if guilty, hung from the neck until dead…   Permalink 8:21 PM – 29 Jul 2018

@nntaleb On the way.   Permalink 2:08 PM – 29 Jul 2018

@EHSANI22 Do any Roman/Greek Experts in epigraphy know what this says ? @nntaleb Permalink 12:54 PM – 29 Jul 2018

@nntaleb For nitpickers what I call Northern Phoenicia is North of Byblos. Gabish? Permalink 8:16 AM – 29 Jul 2018

@nntaleb On my way to Northern Phoenicia. This is the first plane trip in years without the company of math quizzes by Maestro @CutTheKnotMath Alexander Bogomolny left us three weeks ago. Permalink 7:58 AM – 29 Jul 2018

@J_MaestreVidal As a researcher that usually resort on forecasting solutions, I have drawn countless times on the @spyrosmakrid time series collections. Today I had the opportunity to deal with the M4 dataset. Veredict: they did it again! Brilliant work, as always #MachineLearning #AI #forecast Permalink 7:00 AM – 29 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Just as we coined “pedophrasty” as a term to indicate the use of salient images of children by charlatans to sell their fakes (it suspends criticism), we need a term for the squalid argument “for the poor” to sell such crap as GMOs. Penophrasty? Ptochophrasty? Latin better?   Permalink 4:59 AM – 29 Jul 2018

@foodtechhacker Nature represents approximately NP strong solutions. We don’t get this. We need to accept it. But if we did, we’d have to reject nearly everything that makes up our economy. If you don’t understand NP, read here:   @nntaleb @SeloSlav Permalink 5:25 PM – 28 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Cedar trees may have a problem, but in an ecology some species will always be maladapted in a changing environment and others will thrive. Permalink 10:42 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The NYT article by @ABarnardNYT (characteristically) misrepresents the environmental situation in Lebanon & might discourage the overactive Lebanese evironmentalists. There has been a significant reforestation of the place. (Thread)   Permalink 10:25 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Fat Tailed Random Matrices (TECHNICAL INCERTO, Vol 1)   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:28 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@psi_theta “Wittgenstein’s ruler: Unless you have confidence in the ruler’s reliability, if you use a ruler to measure a table you may also be using the table to measure the ruler.” — @nntaleb An unreliable/dumb source gives more information about itself than the information it forwards. Permalink 4:01 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@CCavafy C.P. Cavafy, “According to the Formulas of Ancient Greco–Syrian Magicians”, translated by @DMendelsohn1960 #poetry #Greece Permalink 3:50 AM – 28 Jul 2018

@nntaleb A point that this ignorant Matti Ilmanen @milmanen didn’t get. Permalink 5:32 PM – 27 Jul 2018

@RonPaul Come see Nassim Nicholas Taleb and many other GREAT speakers at my Institute for Peace and Prosperity’s “Media & War” conference on August 18th in Washington, DC! More info and tickets:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 1:29 PM – 27 Jul 2018

@nntaleb This said, I also insisted on the role of priors in (some) medical decisions to manage false positives/negatives. Permalink 9:48 AM – 27 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Found a Tesla supercharger on Boston-NY near artisanal burger rstrnt (keto-friendly) that serves espresso. Nice break for twitter fights with Bayesianistas. Permalink 9:39 AM – 27 Jul 2018

@cdipaola62 I think Taleb actually said, “F—k Bayes.” Which made a lot more sense to me than some of the equations…glad he was there to interpret for me. Permalink 9:20 AM – 27 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The idea behing “Bayesian” approaches is that if 2 pple have different priors, they will eventually converge to the same estimation, via updating. A “wrong” prior is therefore OK. Under fat tails, if you have the wrong prior, you never get there. (Taleb & Pilpel, 2004) Gabish?   Permalink 9:16 AM – 27 Jul 2018

@kavehdaneshvar Not every day you get so much complexity in one place! @nntaleb #ICCS2018 Permalink 6:41 PM – 26 Jul 2018

@djpardis Risk, fat tails, and precaution workshop at #ICCS2018 “Longevity comes from a volatile heartbeat” —@nntaleb Permalink 6:01 PM – 26 Jul 2018

@nntaleb His gadness ⁦@GadSaad⁩ in the workshop. Permalink 4:13 PM – 26 Jul 2018

@trishankkarthik .@nntaleb: “Alexander the Great makes @realDonaldTrump look like Mother Teresa.” Permalink 1:16 PM – 26 Jul 2018

@trishankkarthik Free advice: the lunch crowd has decided that the next @black_swan_man comic should have incompetent supervillain @R_Thaler who tries to nudge @nntaleb into trouble @normonics Permalink 9:40 AM – 26 Jul 2018

@trishankkarthik Nonlinearity in travel time, like @nntaleb said in Antifragile #ICCS2018 Permalink 8:06 AM – 26 Jul 2018

@HardeepSPuri Also took time out to meet my friend, the famous author of several critically acclaimed bestsellers @nntaleb I have always enjoyed our intellectually stimulating discussions. This one was after a long time & first since I became a Minister. (3/3) Permalink 4:28 AM – 26 Jul 2018

@PZalloua Discussing Levantine genetics, and the spread of the Semitic language with L. Lazaridis, D. Reich and NN Taleb over a Mediterranean meal! @nntaleb @iosif_lazaridis Permalink 7:02 PM – 25 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Almost there…   Permalink 7:35 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@LetsWorkHappy Learning more about fat tails from @nntaleb at #ICCS2018 Permalink 7:12 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@mZargham .@nntaleb — tearing apart ‘scientific’ concepts built based on empirically invalid mathematical assumptions. starting over with more realistic mathematical assumptions to derive new principles. #ICCS2018 justifying my decisions to favor product based dynamic decision policies! Permalink 6:50 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@RhysLindmark 3/1 @nntaleb begins his talk with this overview: “What happens when you look at risk *dynamically* not *statically*?” #ICCS2018 Permalink 6:39 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@DTFinegood .@nntaleb “p values are not scientific”. #ICCS2018 Permalink 6:28 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@nntaleb With @GadSaad @MichaelSagnerMD @normonics @HarryDCrane #ICCS2018 Permalink 6:06 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@EdmondAwad Twitter coming to real life at #ICCS18 @nntaleb @GadSaad @MichaelSagnerMD @normonics @HarryDCrane Permalink 6:05 AM – 25 Jul 2018

@MichaelSagnerMD with the crew @nntaleb @PZalloua @trishankkarthik in Boston Permalink 6:04 PM – 24 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Respect for the firefighters and #PrayForGreece Permalink 7:06 AM – 24 Jul 2018

@Ekaitzsaies Hi @GuruAnaerobic ! Mr @urtatses and I had our first meeting this afternoon to start organizing a meet-up in the Basque Country to talk about @nntaleb ‘s ideas this November. Classroom Barbells First 2 speakers (him & I) Are you joining us? Anyone else? Permalink 11:22 AM – 23 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Friends, for the paperback edition, we are looking for comments on Skin in the Game from people with Skin in the Game (not reviewers), that is actually users. If you have a comment, please give us your first name and city of residence. Thanks! Permalink 9:15 AM – 23 Jul 2018

@nntaleb With @GadSaad and @PZalloua at #ICCS2018 Permalink 7:42 AM – 23 Jul 2018

@MimeticValue #ExistentialRisk #EffectiveAltruism #TemporalEmpathy Permalink 3:22 PM – 22 Jul 2018

TECHNICAL INCERTO, Dawkins, Haass, Friedman, Zakaria, Alexander Bogomolny, GMOs, Ron Paul, Soccer | Twitter

@financequant “I believe that we should read only those books that wound and stab us. If a book we are reading does not rouse us with a blow to the head, then why read it? A book must be the axe for the frozen sea inside us.”–Franz Kafka Permalink 2:43 PM – 20 Jul 2018

@NebojsaMalic You BOMBED Montenegro in 1999 as commander of NATO, you nitwit.   Permalink 10:43 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb This time on ….phenomenology! The cartoonist is good but doesn’t get that weightlifters are NOT thin in the waist.   Permalink 6:57 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 3) Since I am typesetting, we have aesthetic questions. Is the format I use for my own books OK? Or fixing the Maestro’s own original fonts?   Please let me know. Permalink 5:20 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) (Ppple involved: @MarcosCarreira @gcfr20 @mikeandallie @octonion @SvetlanaBogom13 ) My feeling is: we do not need to complete many tutorial appendices since these are standard: pple find them on the web just as they did to solve pblms. (for instance I don’t use one for mine) Permalink 5:19 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) BOGOMOLNY FRIDAY SYMPOSIUM Alex left us 13 days ago. I have the PDF of the @CutTheKnotMath’s book Probability Riddles; working on completing it posthumously. Need comments on these sections (pics).   @republicofmath @ProbFact @octonion @erugli ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:50 AM – 20 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Yarmouk is where the Byzantines lost the battle to the Arabs 13C ago. The new Byzantium has some work to do.   Permalink 8:43 PM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb He came to talk population genetics/probability. I took him to the gym instead and forced him to deadlift. He had never done it before. He is very confused about the visit.   Permalink 3:51 PM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Never ever criticize anyone (say a politician) for doing something that you would be silent about if someone else did it. You would be insulting your audience, insulting truth, insulting the medium you are using, insulting ethics. Permalink 11:38 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb I am not involved…   Permalink 11:03 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Yes the seeds of skin in the game in 2002: never read anything on doing by nondoers.   Permalink 10:10 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb So the TECHNICAL INCERTO is online: VOL1- The Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails   VOL2- Convexity, Risk, and Fragility (in progress)   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:01 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Congrats to @BakhtadzeMamuka for becoming Prime Minister of Georgia, and indeed, let Georgia, the root of Europe and the Mediterranean (i.e. Western Eurasia), become part of modern-day Europe via cultural and economic integration.   Permalink 5:47 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb My point is: That highly unrigorous science journalist @RichardDawkins can say “Listen I would like to preserve my culture” without insulting other people’s aesthetics. Permalink 5:35 AM – 19 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Note: This is not for my benefit but a public service warning –since I will never set foot there. (Nor was I financially hurt since I was the guest at a business dinner.) Permalink 7:08 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb I spent my childhood in the Christian neighborhood in Beirut listening to both the bells (older churches than Dawkins’) and the muezzin in the distance. It taught me that tolerance is when you get that: The Other likes the aesthetics of his rituals as much as you do yours.   Permalink 6:54 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Is it against NYC law to refuse to serve tap water? (Some pple have a rule to never drink nonlocal water) Permalink 5:22 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Nusr-Et in NY. Never ever again. They don’t even serve local tap water. Overrrrrrrrrrpriced. Permalink 4:21 PM – 18 Jul 2018

@JeanMessiha En Algérie, des femmes bravent l’obscurantisme avec la modernité du bikini ; en France, des femmes bravent la modernité avec l’obscurantisme du burkini…   Permalink 11:51 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb This is hilarious. Every time someone (of the type to live with their mother at age 52) tells me that “Trump is dumb”…   Permalink 11:39 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@DaxThoughts Nothing makes me (1) feel worse about myself (2) want to learn a ton of information NOW, Than reading @nntaleb’s papers It’s an extremely humbling process. Permalink 4:18 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb And they are still not getting why this “evidence” is pseudoscience.   Permalink 4:12 AM – 18 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The thread explains why most of the papers with “empirical evidence” using “correlations” and “p-values” are BS. Actually, in some fields, almost all papers are BS but you need to look deep into the statistics. The p-value hacking paper:   Permalink 12:03 PM – 17 Jul 2018

@CeddChad Courtesans and Fishcakes opened my eyes to Med culture and how we Northerners are so different. Yours has been the only reference I have ever seen to it. Permalink 11:34 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Journos thrive on wars and tensions (like the press magnate in the Bond movie who fomented wars to sell papers) (Asymmetric payoff: they don’t bear the costs, particularly if harm is in foreign countries) Regular citizens don’t care about geopolitics.   Permalink 11:06 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb And prosperity is best achieved by preventing bureaucrats from interfering with things they will never understand. Permalink 9:50 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb A reminder that the job of the government is to deliver Peace and Prosperity. Permalink 9:42 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@marcus_minus Espèce de charlatan incompétent… je vous invite à lire @nntaleb avant de dire de tels conneries. Et dire que nous avons des cancres comme vs pour parler de transhumanisme, d’OGM et d’investissement d’avenir. #charlatan Permalink 7:00 AM – 17 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Based on the reactions, the definition of a “dictator with divergent values” is someone who does not buy weapons from U.S. based arms manufacturers. Permalink 8:06 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@daniel_bilar Pre-asymptotics & fat tails: Operational & heuristic metrics to compare n-summed independent vars under all distributions w finite first moment by @nntaleb   [“how much data one needs to make meaningful statements”, ‘speed’ of the law of large numbers] ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:39 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@EHSANI22 This is getting ridiculous. What a day. Share values ? I didn’t see you complaining when he sword danced in #Saudi   Permalink 3:59 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb It took 5 volumes to get the main point: “The main thread is that while there is inordinate uncertainty about what is going on, there is great certainty about what one should do about it.” Permalink 1:53 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb One is allowed to reveal the low IQ of these pseudo-experts s.a. @RichardHaass, @tomfriedman or @FareedZakaria is because, while clueless abt complex interactions & basic properties, they feel empowered to lecture others on what to do. They shd driving Ubers not more. Permalink 12:01 PM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Actually excellent partying as preliminary preparation to the theorezing. Permalink 11:49 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb The main problem that plague GMO idiots is that they don’t get that 1) interractions in an environment are not predictable 2) that they NEED to be predicted (no organism is isolated)   Permalink 11:07 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Surprised?   Permalink 10:23 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Promoting the ideas of Jane Jacobs (and her books) on organic urbanism —with Minister @HardeepSPuri in charge of building tens of millions of homes in the next 5 years. Permalink 8:57 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb To have a real “deep state” you need the intelligence of a Professor Moriarty or the craftiness of a Colbert. Not a collection of hand-to-mouth bureaucrats. Gabish? Permalink 7:10 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb One lesson from recent militarism: 1- There may exist ~a “deep state”, but it isn’t organized, rather a spontaneous league of useful idiots 2- The most representative is that *low-IQ BS Vendor*, @RichardHaass, so you can see it’s composed of real losers   Permalink 6:16 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Like Saudi Arabia.   Permalink 5:00 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Friends; now the question is whether to use Roman or “Arabic” (Indian) numerals. Permalink 4:42 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@Jaffer22915438 One last tweet before I do something more useful. Flashback to when right wingnuts called Reagan a “Useful Idiot” for meeting with Soviet Union…today, Democrats assuming posture:   Permalink 4:19 AM – 16 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Needs to be random. Like IRS audits.   Permalink 12:59 PM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) Make sure your income does not depend on your reputation. 2) Find 4-5 perpetrators and hound them for the rest of their life. Particularly 4 years later when they expect it the least. 3) Let others see what you are doing to the few smearers. Example   Permalink 12:53 PM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb In the past, the weapons industry would have right wing warmongers shill for them & perpetuate states of bellicosity. They got smarter. They now enlist shills who managed to label themselves on the “left”. Permalink 12:48 PM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 3) And no, @elonmusk/@Tesla are not fully antifragile: they depends on shareholders, which is the reason smear campaigns are active. They are directed at the shareholders. But they can show evidence of smear campaign (there is) using my Tesla/NonTesla test. Permalink 7:55 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 2) The principle in Fooled by Randomness is that we react to 1st order; we are manipulated into seeing events separated from statistical context. For instance: my discipline every time I hear Trump did smthing cruel (e.g. children) to check if NonTrump did same. (Obama did). Permalink 7:51 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 1) Thread: @ElonMusk, victim of a smear campaign. + @Tesla car catches fire. Nobody reports on >150K yearly nonTesla cars fires? + Musk took public $, not great (returned). How about OTHER companies that got pub. $$? + Musk “is a billionaire”. How abt other billionaires?   Permalink 7:46 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb cc:@HardeepSPuri   Permalink 7:15 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@Jimmy_Rosen 6) Diplomats and politicians with no SITG cause more trouble than they solve with things like Israel/Palestine and Syria. Taleb thinks that people with SITG care more about having good food, drink, and weather at their family parties than geopolitics or grand principles: no SITG Permalink 7:01 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@Jimmy_Rosen 1) Recently finished @nntaleb’s Skin in the Game. Like others (@naval) who have had their worldviews shifted by Taleb’s writings on probability, randomness, and society in general, SITG changed how I think about numerous parts of the economy and society. Some takeaways: Permalink 7:01 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 14 problems coming from the misunderstanding of fat tails by professional statisticians/quants/economists etc. Permalink 6:20 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb One of the last pictures of Maestro, birdwatching (courtesy: his niece). Permalink 6:18 AM – 15 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Today was the first saturday in years without a Maestro Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath math riddle. He left us a week ago. Permalink 8:13 PM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Today was the first saturday in years without a Maestro Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath math riddle. He left us a week ago. Permalink 8:13 PM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb SUMMARY OF THE BOOK A statistician: Of course we understand fat tails. The author: No you don’t. Permalink 2:42 PM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF INTERDICTS A passage in The Black Swan about how grandmother elephants have authority… A senator is literally an aged person… Permalink 10:34 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb I have been blocking pple who nitpick aphorisms as if they were literal scientific claims; some call them “gross generalization”; some even complain that there is no backup… Since I’ve been doing it, the quality of my feed/discussions improved considerably. #ViaNegativa   Permalink 10:22 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb So for the nomenclatura, ageism is not bigotry (check w/intellectual fraudster @NickCohen4). Aside from selective bigoteering, they haven’t yet discovered that respect for the elder if shared by practically every civilization (Meds, Semites, Chinese,…) for #LindyEffect   Permalink 7:22 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@SamuelGWalters This problem dedicated to the Memory of our friend Alexander Bogomolny. @CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb @SvetlanaBogom13 #math Permalink 1:03 AM – 14 Jul 2018

@nntaleb What identity activists & the Stalinist pol police are doing to us is making us see someone as “person from race/gender/orientation (X,Y,Z)” instead of just seeing “Joe”, “Wang”or “Cunégonde”. Nothing short of alienation. #AbstractUniversalism is the arch-enemy of humanism. Permalink 12:43 PM – 13 Jul 2018

@Mehdi_IR_DC It’s so funny to see “progressive” ppl being offended by Trump “disrespecting” the Queen; the very person who believes she is superior than the rest cuz of her blood. Permalink 11:13 AM – 13 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Philology du jour: The “Black” Kazars the “Northern” Kazars? Avoid confusion. For discussion: @peterfrankopan @GhassanDahhan   Permalink 10:14 AM – 13 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Question: Is there a reason I did not lose followers? Is the process still going? Permalink 6:40 AM – 13 Jul 2018

@nntaleb For Christmas, a formal edition of the INCERTO (gold leaf etc.). Now 5 volumes. Now working on the (so far) 2 volumes of the TECHNICAL INCERTO. Permalink 6:11 AM – 12 Jul 2018

@nntaleb While the business of historians is faithful description of the past, @peterfrankopan specializes in faithful descriptions of the future.   Permalink 1:44 PM – 11 Jul 2018

@RonPaul *Special Announcement* Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb) To Speak At Ron Paul Institute Conference 2018!! Permalink 11:56 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@SS_strength “My understanding of this concept has improved, thanks to my friend Nassim Nicholas Taleb, so I thought I’d share it with you.”   Permalink 10:32 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Oh my Baal! Chased my Monsanto!   Permalink 10:17 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@black_swan_man Page 5… #blackswanman #theblackswanman #antifragile #gmo #glyphosate #sustainableagriculture #grassfed Permalink 8:53 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@nntaleb It takes five years to learn how to make money; and twenty-five to learn how to not lose it. Permalink 5:45 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@mikeandallie (2/4) It is memorable not just for being a good problem but also for illustrating the amazing interaction between Bogomolny and Nassim Taleb. Taleb’s approach always got to the heart of the puzzle quickly and showed me how to share seemingly very advanced problems with kids. Permalink 4:37 AM – 11 Jul 2018

@ClintEhrlich 1st time one reads @nntaleb: Geez, this guy is a dick. So f-ing arrogant! 2nd time: Ok, he’s right. But why does he have to be so rude about it? 3rd time: Taleb is a true gentleman. He makes all the right enemies.   Permalink 5:22 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Something abt Maestro Bogomolny’s @CutTheKnotMath mathematical purity I can now reveal. He had a hearing pblm (0% in ear, ~ in oth.) not remediable using aids. He left academia as he couldn’t communicate. He did math for math, not as a career. He wanted his site to make no $. Permalink 3:22 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@Steveonomics My favorite LinkedIn comment regarding @SouthwestAir banning peanuts. @nntaleb Permalink 2:31 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Whole Book in PRogress   Permalink 2:22 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb LIMIT DISTRIBUTIONS, a Tutorial (Chapter in the Technical INCERTO) Permalink 2:15 PM – 10 Jul 2018

@TheLikevillePod @nntaleb talks with the @TheLikevillePod about why scale matters, why localism is better than globalism, why journalists get on his nerves, how intellectual-yet-idiots get us into trouble, and much else.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:51 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Excellent response. Doers and Risk Takers >>>Tawkers. Period. #SkinintheGame   Permalink 10:46 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb In Russian, competitor is конкурент (as in French “concurrent”, Italian “concorrente” cc: @mathieuhelie ), a co-runner. There is no implication of antagonism. You need a “concurrent” because you do not engage in a race against yourself. Permalink 8:25 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@anandk_00 1st time one reads Taleb: it sounds true. 2nd time: one starts being aware of the concepts in operation in ones life, and in general, the world. 3rd time: one wonders how did he/she not get the beauty in the 1st reading itself. Permalink 7:43 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@nntaleb AN ENEMY is someone in a zero-sum game, the representation bureaucrats, geopoliticians, journos & low-IQ pol “scientists” have of the world. A COMPETITOR is someone who helps the system stay non-zero sum & prevents monopolies.   Permalink 6:44 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@ThomasSowell “There is much discussion of the haves and the have-nots, but very little discussion of the doers and the do-nots, those who contribute and those who merely take.” Permalink 5:59 AM – 10 Jul 2018

@SamuelGWalters @CutTheKnotMath Alexander, I know that you are up there in heaven and I hear there is a wifi connection set up there. So you should be able to tweet your #Math problems to us. We’re getting desperate down here. @nntaleb Permalink 4:13 PM – 9 Jul 2018

@diomavro I can honestly say I’ve learned more about probability and recursion from Alexander than the accumulation of all my university classes.   Permalink 5:45 AM – 9 Jul 2018

@GWeynerowski @Likeville hits it out of the park again. This is another fascinating, entertaining conversation led by @john_f_hamer that will make you see the world anew. And as for you, @nntaleb, quit blowing my mind!   Permalink 4:55 PM – 8 Jul 2018

@nntaleb If someone wants a ride w/me, pls mention. I am leaving from Westchester. Permalink 2:18 PM – 8 Jul 2018

@nntaleb From the family: All meet at Floral Park Cemetery at 10:00 a.m. tomorrow 7/9/2018, 104 Deans Rhode Hall Road, Monmouth Junction, NJ 08852. Tel 732-297-2336. Then ” everyone is welcome in our house afterwards […], East Brunswick, NJ” Permalink 2:15 PM – 8 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 6) The Anachronistic Fallacy, 2 You cannot flow today’s rules of morality backward in time & judge people THEN based on rules developed later. Morality comes from customs (mores). No law should be retroactive, something the bigoteers don’t get. Permalink 9:56 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Had the fellow applied this formidable cunning & astuteness to business he would have been montrously successful.   Permalink 8:51 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb Soccer is fundamentally a high variance game.   Permalink 7:36 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 5) THE ANACHRONISTIC FALLACY Injustice was done in the past with invasions, etc. But justice cannot operate without STATUTES of LIMITATIONS: we can’t invoke the Pilgrims, w/o going back to Bronze Age migrations. Arguments abt who did what >100 y ago are necessarily invalid. Permalink 5:32 AM – 2 Jul 2018

@nntaleb 4) Immigration requires sacrifice and skin in the game. Permalink 5:15 AM – 2 Jul 2018

Pedophrasty, Bigoteering, and Other Modern Scams | Medium


Definition: Argument involving children to prop up a rationalization and make the opponent look like an asshole, as people are defenseless and suspend all skepticism in front of suffering children: nobody has the heart to question the authenticity or source of the reporting. Often done with the aid of pictures.

Pedophrasty, Bigoteering, and Other Modern Scams