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Lebanese, Journalists, Dunning Kruger, New Jersey, Thaler, Questions, Donaldo, Tetlock, Probability, Orwell | Twitter


@nntaleb Yuuuuge point by Roger Makhlouf: We don’t quite and never had “ص”, “ض”, “ط” in Lebanese. It is just the “Basta aleph” Permalink 4:06 PM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb One see an explanation to the statement by Jelinek: “when you fire a linguist, speech recognition improves”. Permalink 2:07 PM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Another solution to the marriage problem (added derivation for n \to \infty). Somehow 1/e pops up where you never expected it. Permalink 10:57 AM – 7 Jan 2018

@rjs This is what I love about Twitter. @nntaleb shared a video on classifying languages with dimensional reduction (PCA) instead of pre-cut categories. The task of escaping categories is pervasive. Eg is IKEA a furniture store; is Basecamp project mangement?   Permalink 9:41 AM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Explaining most of the problems   Permalink 8:47 AM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb A very useful heuristic, a potent filter: When someone criticizes you, train to immediately ask yourself: “Would I rather be him/her, or I’d rather be me?” before taking the remark at face value. It works wonders. #SkinintheGame Permalink 8:11 AM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 4) The heuristic is as follows: You know someone will side with Trump, not his detractor, REGARDLESS OF THE ARGUMENT, if the person would rather be Trump when he/she grows up than the detractor. Gabish?   Permalink 6:17 AM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Except when n=1 matters (large deviation in a Fat Tailed domain).   Permalink 6:12 AM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) I mean that when it’s cold, you try to do things to just stay warm (higher entropy), when it’s hot you try to be as inactive as possible (min entropy). And when you are Mediterranean you cheat with spezzatura. Permalink 6:07 AM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb CONJECTURE du jour: When I first encountered ENTROPY, years ago, it hit me that: + In cold countries, civilizations are built to maximize entropy, + In hot ones, civilizations are built to minimize entropy, + the Med, uniquely, does both or neither. (this morning, in Celsius) Permalink 5:35 AM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Answering @VergilDen Permalink 5:29 AM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The discussion that helped finish my book. We need a second @econtalk on religion, rationality & risk bearing. Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Work, Slavery, the Minority Rule, and Skin in the Game | EconTalk | Library of Economics and Liberty   Permalink 4:03 PM – 6 Jan 2018

@mikeandallie Today’s blog: Sharing Markov chains and the “COVFEFE” problem with kids:   #math #mathchat Permalink 1:59 PM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) Commentary by anyone who a) ruled out Trump ‘s election, b) thought mahket wd collapse if Trump elected c) thought Trump wd be impeached within 1y should be ignored. Can only use Krugman-style IYIS is Uber drivers or something requiring low understanding. Permalink 1:58 PM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) In other words, if reality continously delivers something that doesn’t “make sense” to you, it is *you* that you need to worry about. Permalink 11:01 AM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 1) When a collection of journos getting around minimum wage call someone consistently successful “an idiot”, one is entitled to invoke Wittgenstein’s ruler: you don’t just use a ruler to measure the table, but the table to measure the ruler. (in Fooled by Randomness) Permalink 10:58 AM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I am declaring email bankruptcy. Starting from scratch. I have >2000 unread emails (from senders I don’t know). Permalink 7:50 AM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Another: is showing off a departure from virtue? Permalink 7:36 AM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Another question Permalink 7:27 AM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Never publicly refuse an award. Permalink 7:05 AM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb This may clear up that linguistic classifications, while useful in a domain, are too binary for cultural distances. Permalink 6:35 AM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Because people of courage (which includes Nader) are not after awards.   Permalink 6:16 AM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink. Permalink 6:07 PM – 5 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath The marriage problem   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:19 PM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb typo: I meant independent orthogonal components (PC) not PCAs Permalink 11:26 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The way to look at languages… Permalink 10:47 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Things I learned in 2017 1) Genetics: thet need a norm corrector for PCA maps. Similar to finance with STD->MAD. Permalink 6:54 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb and Ukraine! Permalink 6:38 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb And Georgia! Permalink 6:17 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Gives the exact same result as a computer putting n letters in n envelopes! (the derangement problem) @CutTheKnotMath   Permalink 5:29 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Friends into probability: this is very interesting thread as it gives totally counterintuitive results. Also same results as the derangement problem.   Permalink 5:25 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Second version of my article. Included among other things some miscategorization by Semitic linguistists.   Permalink 5:08 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Merry Christmas to my Armenian, Russian, and other nonGreek Orthodox friends. Permalink 5:03 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Linguists try to model on geneticists, but geneticists rely ONLY on independent PCAs. This idiot van Putten invoked Dunning-Kruger when he is unknowingly stepping on MY discipline, statistics. Permalink 4:55 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Never trust a journalist, even if she is your mother.   Permalink 1:42 PM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 15) And that abstract language nobody has seen called “proto-Arabic” is has to have Arabic in it , not Zwinglob, Schwing, or some other less offensive name, which would have made framing less effective. Permalink 12:06 PM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 14) The other politically motivated aspect of the discussion lies in adding “Arabic” as a designation (even if true): Lebanese “Arabic” not Lebanese “Semitic”,and not: Croatian Slavic, Ukrainian Slavic, Catalan Spanish, Norwegian Germanic, Russian Germanic…. Permalink 12:04 PM – 4 Jan 2018

@BrankoMilan So in Iran, Internet works to undermine the corrupt rulers. But in the US, internet works to elect Trump. Very interesting “liberal” logic. Permalink 9:20 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb A good predictor is someone who knows what not to predict. Permalink 8:51 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb A good predictor is someone who knows *what* to predict. Permalink 8:33 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@u_vakalate @nntaleb Sowell echoing #IYI concentration in non-#SITG environments?   Permalink 7:00 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Pronounciation is often areal diffusion (the French “r” doesn’t make it German) Permalink 6:58 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 13) Here @lameensouag nitpicking my list based on g->j, s<-> sh, k->kh, etc. pronounciations. But we say Yesou3 for Yeshou3 (Jesus) though from Aramaic (Arabic is 3issa), Juwwa from Aram. bgaw, etc. It would be classifying Mod. Hebrew as Germanic because w->v, 7->ch, p->ph. Permalink 6:19 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 12) This anachronism is paralleled by another “scholar” (@stephenniem supporter of him) who argued w/a straight face that we can call Islamic discoveries those by countries before Islam (“Islamic” discoveries by Ancient Egyptians, Asia Minor Greeks)   Permalink 5:52 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 11) So not even basic scientific evidential reasoning is needed, but just mere logic. Semitic linguistics is in need to adult supervision.   Permalink 4:01 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@Macaulayputra “Proto-Arabic”, along with “proto-Indo-European” appear to be the linguistic equivalent of non-existent “ether”. Foam used to arbitrarily fill in gaps in the respective theories. @bennedose Permalink 3:16 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 10) Keeps digging: defines some hypothetical language (never written) as Arabic based on cherry-picked rules, then classifies into it in a circular way. This plus lack of awareness of notion of “evidence” makes Semitic linguistics political propaganda.   Permalink 3:16 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath The coffee shop game   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 3:09 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 9) Mr Dunning-Kruger needs to learn some Hebrew   Permalink 3:09 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@VogonPoem This is not just a problem with Semitic linguistics, but with linguistics in general. 1) Too many sound-change laws made up on the fly 2) No evidence to support claims 3) Proto-languages cooked up with insufficient data points The entire PIE tree is suspect. Cc @bennedose   Permalink 7:46 PM – 3 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 8) PS- Moral of the story: if you even invoke the “Dunning Kruger effect” against someone as a way to degrade his knowledge of the subject matter, expect yours to be degraded. Permalink 6:19 PM – 3 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 7) This is it for now as Mr Marijn van Putten @phoenixnl no doubt needs to be establish accordance w/”scientific standards” first, his points later in accordance with rules of evidence. In other words, no BS vending. If he can. Good night, לילה טוב Permalink 6:11 PM – 3 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 6) Finally, as one can see Semitic linguistics is plagued with elementary rigor. Establishing intelligibility betw. Leb and Arabic doesn’t flow from ad nauseam repetition, but something called EVIDENCE. And distinguising languages on the bases of 2-5 rules is called “fitting” Permalink 6:08 PM – 3 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 5) So main argument Leb comes from some abstract unseen “proto-Arabic” is the commonality of a negation “ma” which appears to be Indo-European (Anatolian?). Is it me or a strong, dizzing smell of BS Vending? (* ma is also in Bibilical Heb, but ignore.)   Permalink 6:06 PM – 3 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 4) Even low-IQ Arabists throw their main arguments first *for effect* so I guess retracting it … Other main argument is ad hocness of “varieties” some of which will amuse us next, in (5)   Permalink 6:03 PM – 3 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The point is that 1) is such a definition of dialect in use? 2) is it narrow jargon? 3) it is BS vending? Permalink 3:26 PM – 3 Jan 2018

@nntaleb So I assume that critique fails minimum sci. standards 1) @phoenixnl: “If Lebanese is a dialect of classical Arabic, classical Arabic is also a dialect of Lebanese.” (they aren’t mutually intelligible) 2) Ad hoc (call “proto-Arabic” whateveryoulike)   Permalink 3:05 PM – 3 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The slow-thinking people of “prediction markets” forget we have the real thing called called financial markets, in which one receives an “organic payoff”. Just another instance where academia is decades even centuries behind practice.   Permalink 8:23 AM – 3 Jan 2018

@profnfenton We have explained some other reasons why this use of statistics does NOT ‘highlight misunderstandings of risk’ and ‘illuminate the bigger picture’ as claimed by @RoyalStatSoc See:   Permalink 6:35 AM – 3 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Answers to this piece can help understand why Arabism has been such a glorious project, or why some countries resist economic & intellectual development. Permalink 10:12 AM – 2 Jan 2018

@nntaleb We need some comments by @QifaNabki & by the clown & Arabist @KarlreMarks Permalink 9:16 AM – 2 Jan 2018

@nntaleb   Permalink 7:07 AM – 2 Jan 2018

@Skeptical_Arab Saddest thing I’ve read this year   Permalink 6:53 AM – 2 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Actually the 3 smartest things I did in 2017 were in New Jersey. Once to meet @CutTheKnotMath Once to meet @HarryDCrane and participate in his probability workshop Once to eat auntie anne’s pretzel dogs (next favorite thing after squid ink). Permalink 6:34 AM – 2 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I just published “No, Lebanese is not a ‘dialect’ of Arabic”   Permalink 5:36 AM – 2 Jan 2018

@Extrachelle I deleted it cz I didn’t want to hurt psychologists feelings Permalink 3:47 PM – 1 Jan 2018

@nntaleb This fellow is not uncommon. People from Turkic republics are brainwashed to fughedaboud Armenian/Syriac genocides, ethnic cleansing of Greeks, and treatment of Kurds.   Permalink 7:51 AM – 1 Jan 2018

@tripoli187 True people don’t realise it was Turkish nationalist secularist known as the “young Turks” that began the killings on Armenians etc not the traditional religious ottomans Permalink 6:58 AM – 1 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Exactly. Thaler doesn’t know that “mental accounting” is needed for convexity of payoffs, that in a complex domain aggregate rationality diff from indiv. But he knows that myopic loss aversion doesn’t work under fat tails, that ecological effects need to be integrated. Permalink 5:56 AM – 1 Jan 2018

@nntaleb There are not “incomplete”, they give results BACKWARDS. Permalink 5:44 AM – 1 Jan 2018

@nntaleb When you try to sell 2-dimensional “solutions” to a deeper >3-D problem, and trying to make it pass for science, Mr Thaler @r_thaler, it is not called “idiot”, it is not called “unrigorous”, it is not called “distortion”. It is simply called bullshit vending. Permalink 5:38 AM – 1 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Say it the way it is.   Permalink 5:02 AM – 1 Jan 2018

@nntaleb One warning: Secularization in Turkey came with extreme, murderous nationalism. When you abruptly remove religion, you get a lot of stuff: the mind doesn’t like a vacuum. #Iran Permalink 2:55 AM – 1 Jan 2018

@nntaleb FAT TONY 101: In real world ecologies, questions convey some information about the answer/context. Nobody asks you a random question. But the main problem is not there: providing reduced static approaches to dynamic decisions, such as survival probability.   Permalink 12:00 PM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb FAT TONY 101: In real world ecologies, questions convey some information about the answer/context. Nobody asks you a random question. But the main problem is not there: providing reduced static approaches to dynamic decisions, such as survival probability.   Permalink 12:00 PM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb So from coments it looks more like regimes give concessions BECAUSE they are doomed anyway. More of a signal. Permalink 10:59 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@RonPaulInstitut US foreign policy in a nutshell – bipartisan interventionism: Permalink 8:22 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb SPECULATION: A previously inflexible regime is doomed when it starts giving *partial* concessions/reform. + Gorbachev + Iranian (1st) rev. + Russian rev. + Assad’s release of Islamist prisoners + French rev. More examples? Counteramples? Permalink 7:55 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb I automatically block: 1) Sophists 2) Serial nitpickers –they kill dialogue by diverting it 3) Lobbyists (Monsanto, think tanks funded by Saudi Barbaria) 4) Pple who answer “stick to your discipline” instead of counterargument 5) Someone abusing language w/”racist”, “nazi”, etc. Permalink 6:17 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Answering another Twitter Q. Permalink 6:10 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Answering a Twitter fellow. Permalink 6:04 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 3) This is an application of the minority rule: a small minority gives the accent. Permalink 3:39 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 2) I am writing in Levantine and realized there is a clustering into 2 “formal” accents, Beirut and Damascus. Permalink 3:29 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb SECULATIVE PHILOLOGY DUJOUR Language follow prestige & by mimicry take accent of dominant class. Hebrew: Ashkenazi accent (stripped of gutturals). Even young Seph use it. Leb: now Beirut upper class. Syria: most the “Shami” Damascus accent. French (Touraine=>Paris), Italian… Permalink 3:20 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb En vente aujourd’hui   Permalink 2:28 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@jeitoapp “There’s no cost in thinking Donald Trump is an incompetent buffoon until you have to run against him” @nntaleb @ScottAdamsSays   Permalink 4:52 PM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 8 years left.   Permalink 2:18 PM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Jouer sa peau, (en francais)   Permalink 1:39 PM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Questio 4. Can you exchange social graces with a lobbyist, or an employee of a foreign funded think tank, say the @MiddleEastInst ? Permalink 10:20 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Questio 3. Should universities help their students by harming the collective? Permalink 9:38 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb I am very, very confused with Donaldo’s foreign policy. That, along with the scaling down of the State Dept, is the only recent piece of good news.   Permalink 9:25 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Compiling cases for the application of skin in the game. Questions welcome. Permalink 7:32 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 4) All is not GEOPOLITICS. Local problems are solved by locals.   Permalink 6:42 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 3) This said, that while Saudi Arabian citizens (like Egypt) are obsessively antiWest (& antisemitic) while their government is friendly to West/Israel, the reverse is true for Iran. Permalink 6:33 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 2) Iran is mostly focused on local geopolitics, support of Shiites in area. Saudi Barbaria spreads intolerant Salafism in Europe, Asia, everywhere, funding terrorisms worldwide & financing headcutters. Plus DIRECTLY exterminating Christians & Alawis in Syria, Copts in Egypt, Permalink 6:28 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb We all agree theocracies are incompatible with Western values, but Iran does not fund “terrorism” abroad/ spread “madrassah” in Europe & Asia, rather “friendly” Saudi Barbaria. How many of the attacks in West were done by Shiites?   Permalink 5:28 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DU JOUR (Closing on some open problems): The “ma” in Western Levantine (“ma fi”) ~ always used for negation does not appear to come from Arabic (where it is rare, compared to “la”), but a relic from a more ancient, local root, possibly Indo European.   Permalink 4:03 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@CharlesLogan @CutTheKnotMath had you ever seen this problem before? A computer puts n letters randomly into n envelopes. Find the probability that at least one of the letters reaches its intended destination. Find the limit when n tends to infinity. Permalink 2:51 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 5) Again I am NOT proposing a solution, just positing an ENIGMA, so please no overinterpretation. Things can be random, papers may be disproved, ideas can be refreshed, researchers might be stretching for pub. But it is strange to find 2 gnostic creeds so far apart. Gabish? Permalink 12:12 PM – 29 Dec 2017

@oldlevantine Rarely have @DanielPipes’ prognostications led astray: Always unsentimental, always frightening & premonitory, but always spot on. Yesterday the #Assyrian and #ArmenianGenocide, now the #Copts; #Maronites #Jews & others will follow. Middle East emptied of its #FirstNations. Permalink 11:01 AM – 29 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Which is why spreading sources of pollution brings portfolio effects.   Permalink 10:30 AM – 29 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 4) Something started buzzing in my head when, upon visiting Ireland, I surprised myself by describing the people as “blond Mediterraneans”. Then I saw in a bookstore a book on Druids… Permalink 8:55 AM – 29 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 3/ When you read “Middle East”, ignore, it’s a mistake common in papers bef 2015. Means East Med (Anatolia/Levant). Another strangeness is the Galatians who were Celts in Asia Minor (St Paul to the Galatians). Finally @financequant thinks like an Anatolian Greek. Permalink 8:17 AM – 29 Dec 2017

@nntaleb You need an agggggressive mind like @holland_tom for such enigmas. Permalink 8:12 AM – 29 Dec 2017

@nntaleb ENIGMA DU JOUR: Why do the Irish & Druze have similar creed: + Only Druids/Sheikh 3aql initiated to mysteries + Belief in reincarnation + Gnosticism + Other similarities Now genetics show both gene flow Anatolia => Ireland & Anatolian origin of Druze. Permalink 8:10 AM – 29 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Because people would also suddenly feel the urge to lend (& take the risk) without reward. Salafism attracts people with severe DEFECT of reasoning.   Permalink 5:44 AM – 29 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Politics right-left may cancel out. But the biggest problem is corporates targeting one individual, s. a. Monsanto et al. (Ketchum) harrassing me since my precautionary principle, with an organized smear campaign. I am antifragile, other people aren’t.   Permalink 4:51 AM – 29 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Last summer, after rereading my Lindy chapter, to be consistent with my Skin in the Game principle, I threw away almost ALL my social science & books written by recent academics, except for 80% of history & 100% mathematical subjects. 4 carloads of books. (Eco in was salvaged) Permalink 1:09 PM – 28 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath A cyclic inequality on unit interval   #FigureThat #math #algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:19 PM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb LINDY at WORK: The general idea is to work in the presence of real texts (mostly in the original) that remind you of Lindy, instead of the jelly compotte of academic wailing. Not a single line of the SITG was written in the “other” library with contemporary marmelade. Permalink 12:08 PM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb and Spanish. Permalink 9:24 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb By my writing desk: Books in Aramaic, Syriac, Hebrew, Arabic, French, Greek, Latin, (Medieval) Italian, English, randomly arranged. Permalink 9:23 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Dear @BretWeinstein, my friend. If you use the “listen, I have the same values as you, I am not a Nazi” route, they will destroy you. If you call them “repressive neoStalist fake-lib sexist racist crap” (why they are), they will cower. Gabish?   Permalink 8:21 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb No, books will not make you understand Trump. Told an interviewer: “The man-with-a-library in me fails to understand Trump. The souk trader in me has no trouble understanding Trump”.   via @voxdotcom Permalink 7:45 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The more complex the world, the less you can grasp it from academic studies. Permalink 6:37 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb More lessons dujour: When you attack someone in person, do not BS about “imaginary” opponents When you are playing the academic game, don’t claim “pursuit of truth”, just lay low. PS: Nonbinary aspect of realworld proba publ. in Dynamic Hedging, 1997.   Permalink 6:33 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Hon xam jarreb “Lebanese Language Institute” hayyem kamen.   Permalink 4:41 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 3am tarjem “Bed of Procrustes” 3al lébnéné (kin3ané/finy2é jdid). Fi shwayy ghalat (l “el” lezem tkun “l” mitlel finy2é) Permalink 4:39 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Probability in the Real World Lesson 101. Permalink 4:23 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Lesson of the day: If you want to portray yours truly as “loud HENCE wrong”, better 1) know what you are talking about, 2) not buzzword using big names like Bernoulli, & 3) not make elementary mistakes about probability.   Permalink 3:32 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Mush l 7ruf l3arabiyyé, bass l latiné bidoun l s3oubé. Permalink 3:25 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Complication/addition of fonts will fail. Sta3mel l 7ruf l 3adiyyé iza baddak l3alam yiktbo fiya.   Permalink 3:14 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Why verbal forecasting doesn’t work in the real world. Permalink 6:13 PM – 27 Dec 2017

@spartanwarriors #Greece – An imposing statue in Sparta of King Leonidas, who was approximately 60 years old when he died defending the pass of Thermopylae in 480 BC. (Photo: Anastasios Michalopulos) Permalink 3:49 PM – 27 Dec 2017

@mikeandallie (3/3) I am amazed by the sheer amount of fantastic math ideas that people share on twitter. I also appreciate the the efforts that people make to make complicated or new math accessible and easy (or at least easier) to understand for the masses. Excited for more in 2018. Permalink 3:06 PM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Goat cheese camembert & other chevres, a Christmas gift from @Idyllfarms Permalink 2:04 PM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Permalink 1:08 PM – 27 Dec 2017

@oldlevantine Dear Mr. Zogby, with all due respect, none of those foods you call “Arab” are “Arab.” There were Levantines, among them Jews, partaking of those foods millennia before exogenous Arabs expropriated them. Wanna talk about cultural genocide? Let’s start with your vaunted Arabs.   Permalink 12:24 PM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Why real world exposures CANNOT be described in words that map to a single probability Permalink 11:32 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb This might educate your Mr Tetlock on probability & why the utility framework doesn’t work under inseparabilities.   Permalink 11:25 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Mr Tetlock should have shown the full thread, including this, not just a pic. Clearly it is beyond “utilility”. Probability is a kernel not a discrete value.   Permalink 11:14 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 4) A reader got it:   Permalink 9:34 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb In simple words, why just talking abt probability without payoff is BS: You would never ride in a plane with a 1% probability of crash (~no pilot/flight attendant would be alive at .001%), but you would accept a scientific result that is 1% false. Permalink 9:16 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Quadratic Inequalities on [-1,1]   #math #algebra Thanks to @DMarghi ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:48 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 2) SILENT RISK: Probability is a kernel for decision, not an end product. Can’t discuss a kernel on its own. Permalink 7:22 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 1) This is the kind of BS about probability I spent my life fighting. Probability is meaningless unless one attaches a payoff/consequence. Verbalistic “assessments” include severity adjustments. INCERTO books sold 4.5 million copies & pple still make this mistake.   Permalink 7:17 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Koura valley where Byzantine garrisons were posted, using @PZalloua ‘s database. Permalink 4:52 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Actually, Salibi doubts Douahi’s account using my argument that the population of Amioun & Koura remained Greek-Orthodox to this day. (The problem with Salibi is elsewhere) Permalink 4:38 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 3) Most historical accounts are by Maronite bishop Stephanos Douaihi or the historian Kamal Salibi. Both are fabrications –like most of what Salibi wrote. Permalink 3:35 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 2) Another myth: the Maronites “won” the battle of Amioun. They were more likely pushed up Mount Leb. There is not a single Maronite church and not one Maronite family originating from the 15km Koura( χώρα) area betw Amioun & the Med. The border has not changed in 1200 years. Permalink 3:33 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 1) HISTORICAL DEBUNKING DUJOUR We are told Arabs invaded the Levant in 636. How did Byzantines battle Maronites in Amioun in 694? Truth is that most of the tension in coastal N. Levant was betw. Syrian-Greeks & Syriacs, not between them & Arabs. Arabs didn’t care abt. area. Permalink 3:21 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb For Christmas bought a v. Insightful book by my favorite twitter enemy @davidgraeber Permalink 3:27 PM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 2) Being attacked by 2 similar crowds: 1) Neo-Nazi “white” (butter) supremacists using the “Aryan” theory to downgrade Meds (except those who fit “classical civilization”) 2)”Pol correct” rewriters of history s.a. @wmarybeard binarizing Meds and Subsaharans in same “other” group Permalink 2:28 PM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Truth is that the “Europeans” (butter, not olive oil) never had a “RE-naissance”. They just had a naissance 600 y ago. The Nazis (& others bef) manufactured “Aryan” continuity linking themselves to the ancient world. Meanwhile the Meds took a nap (& still half-sleeping).   Permalink 12:06 PM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The problem can be solved very simply longhand but here is the more formal solution with code. Permalink 10:55 AM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb And these posts about Meds and fake chromoclassification by identity warriors keep showing in my feed from retweets. Basically if one puts BS on twitter (a public forum), you can expect debunking. Twitter is not just a place for motivational marmelades. Gabish? Permalink 10:25 AM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb For those who persist in separating Greeks “white” from Western Asians (now “nonwhite”), some news for you. Permalink 10:01 AM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Another ignorant who doesn’t get that the Meds (Aristotle, etc.) were not Northern Europeans.   Permalink 9:06 AM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Identity pple who chromoclassify are largely intellectually challenged.   Permalink 9:03 AM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR: You type random numbers on your (sturdy) phone in sequence; how many numbers are you expected to push before you obtain the remarkable “Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison number”, that is 47246?   Permalink 8:43 AM – 26 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath An integral identity #FigureThat #math #algebra #calculus Permalink 8:17 AM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb “Assuming” oil goes up… Saudi Barbaria is even more fragile than I thought.   Permalink 7:30 AM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 6) My first reaction to Trump is the same as Nero’s to Fat Tony: it takes some effort for an intellectual to warm up to like people who don’t read/respect books. (from Antifragile) Permalink 4:14 AM – 26 Dec 2017

@RGumby14 .@nntaleb check out this gift my gf got me for Christmas. She’s hoping I one day make it as a flaneur. #antifragile Permalink 8:23 PM – 25 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 5) Even if Trump became suddenly left-wing, he would still be hated by the Intellektchuals who would drum up arguments. Why? They obsessively hate @realDonaldTrump because he is both totally non-intellectual and doesn’t hide it. He makes intellktchuals feel irrelevant. Permalink 2:55 PM – 25 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The imbecile generalizes from single instances: he cites ONE book hence he knows ONE book. We shoud subject people in humanities to IQ tests.   Permalink 2:32 PM – 25 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 4) The idea of #skininthegame is that people judged by reality and P/L, instead of peers or supervisors, are vastly more open-minded. Permalink 1:05 PM – 25 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 3) Employed intellectuals, professional academics, and other slaves are rarely in love with thought & ideas. They are primarily in love with Orthodoxy. Permalink 12:40 PM – 25 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Time to start a mass reconversion of Western Syria (particularly urban areas) to Greek Orthodoxy? Remember that the New Testament was written in the (bad) Greek of Syria. With the advantage that you can wear jeans in GrecoSyrian churches.   Permalink 6:04 AM – 25 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Note on this Christmas day that the Leb “zi7” (as opposed to Maltese Linea, Arabic “5att) comes from Aramaic the language of Christ. Permalink 5:53 AM – 25 Dec 2017

@SamuelGWalters Holy mackerel, look what I found by accident. (Just came up during my calculations. Don’t yet have a proof.) #math #fun Permalink 11:35 PM – 24 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath An Easy Cyclic Inequality And a Remark   #FigureThat #math #inequality ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 10:49 AM – 20 Dec 2017

@dukecrawford #attention is the petroleum of our time. Attention is refined by ignoring things that are irrelevant. Avoiding false patterns. @nntaleb Permalink 8:37 AM – 20 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Does someone understand this discrepancy between the formal document and the press on max tax rate (37% vs 38.5%) ?   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:26 AM – 20 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Attention Data Scientists: the M4 competition is Open. The Makridakis Competitions address out of sample performance. M1, M2 & M3 revealed how complex methods are outformed by simpler ones (themselves poor). Permalink 6:37 AM – 20 Dec 2017

@nntaleb THINK TANK ETHICS Paul Salem is one of those Ivy-Lea IYIs who may have started out well-intentioned but never did anything except thinktank crap, now find themselves financially strapped in their 50s. So they prostitute themselves to Gulf Arabs to pay bills. They come cheap. Permalink 4:44 AM – 20 Dec 2017

@XFaure “Virtue is what you do when nobody is watching. The rest is marketing” @nntaleb   Permalink 12:29 AM – 20 Dec 2017

@jeitoapp “there’s no cost of thinking a bull is a cow, until you have to milk it” #SkinInTheGame @nntaleb Permalink 11:54 PM – 19 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Econs: In the age of social media, you can’t keep selling BS with pseudo-mathematics/citation ring/circular vetting with impunity. Eventually a bubble bursts. Permalink 7:04 AM – 19 Dec 2017

@nntaleb This is the kind of bullshit delivered by a BSchool “Associate Dean”. Dangerous BS. Saying “data has fat tails” YET using ordinary MLE estimators, accepting modern portfolio theory, calculating CVaR, regressions, doing business as usual, is INCOHERENT.   Permalink 6:22 AM – 19 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Never met an economist who “knows” statistics. Requires understanding Fat Tails since ~ALL econ variables are fat tailed.   Permalink 5:57 AM – 19 Dec 2017

@rhughesjones Heading to see @nntaleb – An Evening with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, if anyone else fancies it?   Permalink 12:45 AM – 19 Dec 2017

@nntaleb This is not to say business schools are useless: what you learn is either on your own or in the drinking parties. Permalink 3:25 PM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The only thing you can learn from a business school professor is how to become a business school professor. Permalink 3:06 PM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb If I understand things well, the current situation is untenable: there would be, in the future, HUGE economic advantages for being a eunuch. Megan @asymmetricinfo has too much mental clarity for Bloomberg Views.   Permalink 1:51 PM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Thank you Rand Paul for nudging into the direction.   Permalink 1:34 PM – 18 Dec 2017

@charlesamadeus .@nntaleb Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. (2 hours into Anti-fragile). Permalink 1:32 PM – 18 Dec 2017

@yvespatte Bouclage d’un gros article pour Néo Santé, sur la notion d’#antifragilité de @nntaleb. L’article paraîtra dans le courant 2018, comme dossier spécial de la revue. Bcp de liens avec l’alimentation #paleo, #movnat, le #CrossFit, etc. #Hâte #Bestbookever Permalink 11:18 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Mr @paul_salem can you reveal who funds you for such statements? Can you confirm that no Wahabi regime pays you to promote Salafism in America & steer U.S. policy in favor of Jihadis? Thank you in advance. Permalink 10:20 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Correction: 99.99% for journalism. Permalink 7:27 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 8) A more advanced discussion about “empiricism” with fat-tailed distributions.   Permalink 6:51 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 7) The saddest was when I saw Brian Greene @bgreene making the mistake, then not understanding the error. The problem: because of packages, pple use statistics mechanistically so they either forget or don’t know that “significance” is central in discussing/ comparing variables. Permalink 6:39 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb We are open for scholarships for our next seminar in Real World Risk Taking, Feb 5-9 2018. Scholarship are not based on “academic” stuff, but on more general attributes.   Permalink 5:54 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 6) What we just saw with @HEtanShah retweeted by the “highly cited” medical statistician David Spiegelhalter @d_spiegel is the justification of this tweet.   Permalink 4:46 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 5) In other words, statistics in not an IN SAMPLE description (this is called an “anecdote”) but a representation of OUT OF SAMPLE properties (those that hold outside your sample set). Permalink 4:35 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 4) @Mr Shah @HetanShah, As Head of the @RoyalStatSoc Thou Shalt Not Use Statistics in an Unrigorous Manner, in a way to make the person in the street more knowledgeable about risk than a member of the @RoyalStatSoc Permalink 4:29 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@HarryDCrane Sad but true — the RSS has taken a nosedive in past few years, as have its journals (esp Series B) Shah isn’t a statistician — not sure why RSS allows him to peddle nonsense on its behalf Permalink 4:27 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 3) At the core the “statistician” head of the Royal Society is using a variable that converged to the mean by LLN to another one that did not. Permalink 4:22 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 2) Here is a discussion of the reason.   Permalink 4:17 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 1) Look at head statistician from the Royal Society promoting that BS. No, the 2 variables are NOT comparable statistically. Your lawnmower is not trying to kill you. @DrCirillo and I aim to put an end to this in our book.   Permalink 4:15 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Cooperation   Permalink 6:02 PM – 17 Dec 2017

@nntaleb This explains diseconomies of scale from hidden risk (concavity to errors) and why large companies end up vanishing in a market system. #Antifragile   Permalink 5:13 PM – 17 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Second Version of Paper on Gini with coauthors incl @DrCirillo (after requests by referees) Permalink 3:25 PM – 17 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath A slight variation. Two Chickens in Boxes   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:39 AM – 17 Dec 2017

@nntaleb (The idea of skin in the game is to remove the mimicry by filtering via judgment by reality. Otherwise you end up with actors & parrots.) Permalink 7:53 AM – 17 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Semitic Philology du Jour: Jwz and Zwj are different roots. Jawz (for husband in Lebanese) comes from Canaanite Agoz”walnut” (i.e. dual), אֱגוֹז , while zawj (husband in both Aramaic & Arabic) come from Greek ζεύγος (pair). Permalink 6:53 AM – 17 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Interestingly, 3 out of 50 are Lebanese (Abraham, Shaheen, Issa).   Permalink 6:15 AM – 17 Dec 2017

@nntaleb In any profession, 90% of people are clueless but work by situational imitation, narrow mimicry & semi-conscious role-playing. Except social “science” and journalism where it is 99% and 100%, respectively. Permalink 4:16 AM – 17 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Ma fi sha3b bala lugha Ma fi lugha bala adab Dante 5il2 eltilyéné. Sar marja3. (Iza baddak tshuf kif ligha, t-talla3 3al Malte. Bi Malta 3emlo ligha lawa7don). Permalink 3:40 PM – 16 Dec 2017

@nntaleb niktob kitob bilighitna el 3adieh 3ni3mol ligha la2lna, jdidé mush syriené (ligha mayté). 3am bitarjim kitbé 3al libnéné (kin3ané jdid).   Permalink 11:01 AM – 16 Dec 2017

@aintgotnobrakes I can’t get this thought out of my head: “You can define a free person precisely as someone whose fate is not centrally or directly dependent on his peer assessment”   Permalink 10:35 AM – 16 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Wel qaf kamen saret 2a (7atta bil seryéné bnilfuz 2a msh qa). Hiyye “th” saret “t” min zamen (bel aramé 2al l masi7).   Permalink 10:16 AM – 16 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Thank you twitter. #Mathtwitter, @CutTheKnotMath   Permalink 9:59 AM – 16 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Notez que “seeking” dans “rent seeking” ne veut pas dire “recherche” mais exploitation. Donc rente de situation. Permalink 5:53 AM – 16 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Chers amis, est-ce que “rent seeking” correspond au vieux terme francais “rente de situation”? Permalink 5:37 AM – 16 Dec 2017

@Spfannenschmidt Nassim Taleb eyeing an IYI @nntaleb   Permalink 3:36 PM – 15 Dec 2017

Lindy, Globalism, Nikki Haley, Stiglitz, Pinker, Bitcoin, Futures, Daou, COVFEFE, Olives – Twitter

@Spfannenschmidt Nassim Taleb eyeing an IYI @nntaleb   Permalink 3:36 PM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Minority rule in action!   Permalink 3:27 PM – 15 Dec 2017

@oldlevantine Lebanese philology du jour: I want to suggest (based on folk etymology) that the Lebanese “tofshiita” (a bunch of malarkey) has its origins in the Aramaic ܦܫܝܛܬܐ/פשיטה for “simple,” whence the Peshitta 4 gospels come. Thoughts @nntaleb @turlevnon?? Permalink 3:20 PM – 15 Dec 2017

@financequant Globalism fosters points of centralized power which can (seemingly) “optimize” their outputs, creating conditions which work well when they work but which fail catastrophically when they don’t. Optimized systems, in a narrow sense, do not fail gracefully. 1/2   Permalink 9:45 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The 8 different meanings of BR in Aramaic, 2) (and more) Permalink 7:58 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The 8 different meanings of BR in Aramaic, 1) Permalink 7:57 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Never met a classicist who understands 1) Semitic philology 2) that times has an arrow that flows in one direction 3) that genetics like paternity tests >> oral history 4) that East-Med (Greek, Anatolian, Armenian & Canaanite) genetics are similar Permalink 7:00 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DUJOUR: Bar-ra in Leb (=outside) from B-ra (Aramaic) actually Akkadian. Barbar-Ru dog (outside wolf). Quest: any connection to βάρβαρος (i.e. outsider ) rather than onomatopeia for incomprehensible sounds? Hint: initially applied to Semitic-speaking Maltese.   Permalink 6:49 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Yes, expected. Permalink 6:02 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Lindy is closing.   Permalink 5:59 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Lindy is not “Lindy” (i.e., prone to the Lindy effect).   Permalink 5:58 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb People have the illusion that “globalism” is good for commerce. It is mainly good for commerce by large crony corporations, creating fragility & winner-take-all effects. Permalink 3:52 AM – 15 Dec 2017

@nntaleb A “bubble” becomes a bubble when you run out nonbankrupt people calling it a bubble. Permalink 3:52 PM – 14 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Nikki Haley is a shameless, flagrant, uninformed, clueless, low-IQ BS vendor. We need her out of the UN. Saudi Barbaria has been killing THOUSANDS of Yemeni civilians. Yemen has killed NO Saudi Civilians.   Permalink 3:31 PM – 14 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The sad part is that it is true. As demonstrated, a “Nobel” in economics correlates with negative knowledge.   Permalink 3:06 PM – 14 Dec 2017

@JamesMarsh79 Robert Taft was firmly against @R_Thaler and #sunstein Permalink 11:18 AM – 14 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath To continue the odyssey #FigureThat #math #probability Permalink 10:23 AM – 14 Dec 2017

@nntaleb For 10 seconds, I was scared: I thought I wrote the article. That solution is sooooooooo simple. Permalink 7:36 AM – 14 Dec 2017

@nntaleb I have not seen anybody provide an argument for why Joseph Stiglitz is socially useful.   Permalink 2:28 AM – 14 Dec 2017

@AStratelates Reminder. Permalink 8:30 PM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Deriving the distribution of Bitcoin assuming Log Returns Student-T as specified by @financequant . (There is no PDF for corresponding Stable Dist. For Cauchy set alpha=1) Permalink 3:04 PM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb In other words, IYI Pinker @sapinker promotes an article by journo @mark_lynas making pro-GMO “scientific”, when there is NO SINGLE tail risk analysis for GMOs & no single study on consumers, & nothing that’s not Monsanto cooked.   Permalink 2:34 PM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Pinker is clueless about anything that has a 2nd order effect. In other words, about practically everything.   Permalink 9:37 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The right link   Permalink 9:21 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@phl43 The Financial Times (  ) just gave a lesson on how to write a headline that is both intentionally misleading and strictly speaking true. ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:58 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Comment “sent” la traduction? Permalink 6:29 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Probability of a big quotient #FigureThat #math #probability This is step one towards a harder problem Permalink 5:47 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb I am fighting for the rest of the world, particularly the US, to have the fractal, bottom-up properties & the governance of CHF.   Permalink 4:17 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Antifragility for CHF is because they used to benefit from turmoil elsewhere –and will hopefully do so in the future. My model country.   Permalink 3:43 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Bitcoin seems to fit a Stable Distr, cannot rule out Cauchy! (Collaboration w/ @financequant ) Note that this makes practically any price level possible: whether 100K or 100. Permalink 3:34 AM – 13 Dec 2017

@nntaleb My Christmas Class party at NYU Tandon for my fat tails class. Permalink 4:35 PM – 12 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Chers amis, quelle est la traduction francaise la plus claire de “bullshit”? (c’est pour mon livre) Permalink 11:02 AM – 12 Dec 2017

@trueThorLund When @nntaleb writes abt taxi driver brother free to have own opinion, I imagine this…   Permalink 10:09 AM – 12 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Is that idiot is representative of a new generation of investors who don’t get that one can make claims about volatility & tails without committing to a direction?   Permalink 7:07 AM – 12 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Is it 1) stupid people become financial journalists or 2) financial journalism makes people stupid?   Permalink 8:13 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@nntaleb J2 Haplogroup, of course. Permalink 7:36 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Announcement by my Calabrez teachers: Antonio’s is open on Sunday Dec 24. Traduzione: Antonio’s abarberia aperto Domeni(c)ga diciembre 24. Permalink 6:35 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@Confusezeus The reaction to Trump’s declaration of #Jerusalem as a capital of Israel is more a reaction against #Trump himself than against the declaration. Here are three former presidents saying the same thing with no fuss to follow.   Permalink 5:57 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Dorin Marghidanu’s Permuted Inequality   #FigureThat #math #algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:05 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Shorting a future creates an unbounded liability: you are responsible for all your personal assets. Unlike futures, options have natural sellers: covered calls (hence spreadable into synthetic puts), & they should have been introduced AT THE SAME TIME as the future. Permalink 4:35 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@Yarimatahari @RBReich note @nntaleb call for decentralization as a tool against corporate lobbyists   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:29 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The fellow @harrynwilson is actually owning that their headline is a clickbait that doesn’t match the content –treated as fine print. In other words, what charlatans do.   Permalink 3:45 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@mikeandallie The most interesting piece of math I learned in 2017 was thanks to @octonion and @nntaleb -> the COVFEFE problem:   #math #mathchat Permalink 2:53 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@ido87 @nntaleb Had to smile when I saw this. Antifragility and the development of urban water infrastructure:   Permalink 1:36 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@John07331405 How India Economic Times reported this tweet:   Apparently you think it’s LIKELY bitcoin will hit $100k. Permalink 1:12 AM – 11 Dec 2017

@Cernovich Schiff was source of the fake CNN story and they have the guy on the very next day. Very Fake Jake!   Permalink 3:16 PM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Note that Bitcoin has a limited number of natural sellers. The entire concept is very concave supply (it costs more and more to extract). The number of producers shrinks with time. Permalink 3:03 PM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb As usual, fake news. “Properly” is key. Fools “can” short.   Permalink 2:36 PM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb This form of entrepreneurship [flipping companies] is the equivalent of bringing great looking and marketable children to this world with the sole aim to sell them at age 4. Permalink 12:52 PM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb A heuristic for happiness/contentment/good disposition: You are not upset to hear that someone you know has been owning bitcoin since 2011. Permalink 8:51 AM – 10 Dec 2017

@MaxAbrahms So, it turns out the pundits were wrong about Assad and the Islamic State as I’ve been saying forever.   Permalink 6:09 AM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Very big point. Futures that don’t have deliverables require a very, very deep market. Otherwise someone long the future can push prices higher at settlement time with impunity, by “locking” profits (never having to resell a deliverable).   Permalink 5:41 AM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Generalization of a problem by Maestro Alexander B @CutTheKnotMath (tex file   ) ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:49 AM – 10 Dec 2017

@nntaleb We can ignore Daou (as he doesn’t have the basic reasoning abilities to know what a fallacy means); but here is a good puzzle: Daou a Lebanese word (meaning illumination), doesn’t exist in Syro-Aramaic. I cannot find an Ugaritic/Western Semitic root. Permalink 4:05 PM – 9 Dec 2017

@nntaleb A Kafkaesque World. With the inquisition spirit & the criminalization of politics, you will soon wake up every morning with the question: “Which rule I didn’t know existed did I violate yesterday?” Permalink 2:24 PM – 9 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Bitcoin: my answer to the repeated questions. No, there is NO way to properly short the bitcoin “bubble”. Any strategy that doesn’t entail options is nonergodic (subjected to blowup). Just as one couldn’t rule out 5K, then 10K, one can’t rule out 100K. Gabish? Permalink 8:05 AM – 9 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Mr Peter Daou, I exposed a major fallacy in your argument. You respond with two elementary fallacies. Will you respond next with four even more elementary fallacies? Permalink 6:34 AM – 9 Dec 2017

@jeorgen @nntaleb’s fundamental notion: We live in a non-linear world, or else it wouldn’t exist. Permalink 6:22 AM – 9 Dec 2017

@GuruAnaerobic Think of sugar/carbohydrate as a ‘pollutant’. Both Zero-carbers and High-carbers miss this, as well as the difference between acute and chronic.   Permalink 3:41 AM – 9 Dec 2017

@nntaleb For those who do NOT understand nonlinearity of dose-response with respect to pollutants: Permalink 3:11 AM – 9 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Here, in 2017, we have to watch legal scholar @AlanDersh explain to one (very) intellectually challenged @peterdaou that legal expertise doesn’t equate with supporting Hillary. This is not 2017 BC. This is 2017 AD.   Permalink 4:20 PM – 8 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Sorry, this is the one Permalink 3:24 PM – 8 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The COVFEFE solution with code. Permalink 3:07 PM – 8 Dec 2017

@oldlevantine The Aramaic lo ta`lan l-nesyuno (with the verb “alel” standing for “enter into” or “lead into”) means precisely “do not let us enter into” temptation: ולא תעלנא לנסיונא   Permalink 4:43 AM – 8 Dec 2017

@nntaleb More details about precaution w/respect to climate. Permalink 9:50 AM – 7 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The author of the manual, Bernard Gui, is the villain in the Name of the Rose. He has a lot to teach the repressive autocratic pseudo-left. Permalink 9:12 AM – 7 Dec 2017

@nntaleb My French publisher has a time-tested manual for those who want to engage in the modern pseudo-leftist inquisition. Permalink 8:26 AM – 7 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Tartare (Paris) “Jouer sa peau” is the new title. Permalink 4:47 AM – 7 Dec 2017

@GeertNoels We have only one planet. Even a risk with a very low probability becomes unacceptable when it affects all of us Ergo, we should build down CO2 emissions, even regardless of what climate-models tell us. – @nntaleb Permalink 11:23 PM – 6 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Lshaghlé lwa7idé lmfakkrin jéyé minl3arabé hiyye’l “al” (wl jam3 lmaksur). Tel3et Kin3aniyyé. Home run. Permalink 2:14 AM – 6 Dec 2017

@nntaleb “Jouer sa Peau” “Risquer sa Peau” Permalink 2:12 AM – 6 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Semitic Philology du jour: only supposedly “certain” import from Arabic “al” into Lebanese actually from later Canaanite: “hal”, a form still in use, or even “l”. So “l-bét/hal-bét” (the house) it is NOT “al-bayt” (Arabic) or “beyto/a”(Syriac/Aramaic), but EXACTLY Phoenician. Permalink 12:52 AM – 6 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Les épreuves de mon livre. Permalink 12:19 AM – 6 Dec 2017

@byzantinepower Exceptionally erudite article by @DrMichaelBonner on the hybridity of the Classics (inc a war-cry for Aramaic) & a settlement of scores re: @nntaleb & @wmarybeard. A brilliant way to kick off the morning…   Permalink 12:08 AM – 6 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Someone in the classics understood me in my bone with Mary Beard! And yes, Aramaic is the West.   via @academia Permalink 1:35 PM – 5 Dec 2017

@elalterego01 @nntaleb . Look what is happening to the people you have uncovered   Permalink 8:27 AM – 5 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Henry Corbin’s 4 volume treatise on Shiism. Permalink 2:55 AM – 5 Dec 2017

@nntaleb I am now in the Beirut Armenian. Permalink 11:26 AM – 4 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Comparing Beirut(Aleppo) Armenian to Moscow Armenian Permalink 11:21 AM – 4 Dec 2017

@nntaleb People get The Minority Rule.   Permalink 3:05 PM – 3 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Tripes Phoenician-style with a Georges Brassens lookalike remote cousin (whose name is also Georges). Permalink 12:05 PM – 3 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Orthodox priest in Amioun blessing a meal at a luncheon party. Permalink 3:18 AM – 3 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Respect.   Permalink 2:06 PM – 2 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Expected time to COVFEFE: part of the exam at the Indian Statistical Institute. cc:@CutTheKnotMath Permalink 11:09 AM – 2 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Between the Carybde of pseudo-empiricism and the Scylla of postmodernism.   Permalink 10:33 AM – 2 Dec 2017

@primalpoly Are you for or against the @nntaleb poll about whether you’re for or against Twitter polls? Permalink 5:20 PM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb We can see that somewhere between 1% and 65% of my Twitter followers don’t understand the Godel-Popper paradox, or meta-problem that is, that you can’t use electoral system to vote against democracy or that you can’t let Salafis vote in democratic societies. Permalink 5:09 PM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Thread opens a BS detection prog: take claim”Arabic/Islamic science INVENTED x”, debunk & show historian misappropriates stuff by Persians/Chaldeans/GrecoPhoenicians/Syriacs. I’ve discussed in ThBlackSwan the lack of evidential rigor among historians. (& note funding by KSA)   Permalink 3:16 PM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Four hours left to vote, particularly for those against twitter polls.   Permalink 11:49 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Probability with Factorials   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 11:13 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Mediterranean vodka. Permalink 9:33 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The reason crusaders used fat is because olive oil cultivation was not widespread and local to narrow Med strips. Northern Europeans were not representative of Western civilization. They still aren’t fully so. Permalink 7:09 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Mr Fafinski, it is simple. There were between 60-180 Arab tribes. Banu Ghassan was one of them. Can you generalize to Arabs? More significant, do you know how few the Ghassanids were then? I can’t make you rigorous, I can just prevent you from bullshitting on Twitter. Permalink 6:57 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@EatTheDormouse Prof. Mulder, crediting Arab/Islamic society with ancient Mediterranean or Persian practices is saying we owe the cultivation of maize to American settlers. Highly insulting and anachronistic Permalink 6:34 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The claim by Prof Mulder is even weirder that the word for “soap” in Classical Arabic صابون comes from the Greek σαπούνι (Latin sapo). Permalink 6:15 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The claim by Prof Mulder is even weirder that the word for “soap” in Classical Arabic صابون comes from the Greek σαπούνι (Latin sapo). Permalink 6:15 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Here is the distribution of olives. A Mediterranean thing. The Western cultivation came mostly later. Twitter is not a good place for confabulatory and anachronistic statements. Permalink 5:56 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb and Byzantines are now Islamic? Permalink 5:44 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb You made a false claim and are now justifying it with …colonialism? Your bogus definition of Islamic covers pre-Islamic cultures, including Jews. Permalink 5:41 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb We are discussing an INVENTION after the 7th Century, so please, please, no anachronism. You are a historian. Permalink 5:18 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb To call this an “invention” of the Islamic world one needs evidence it did not predate the Arab invasion of the Levant. Permalink 4:39 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb This comes is from a Levantine practice of annointing with oil (Messiach from “wipe”). And do not confuse “shemen” in Aramaic (oil) w/Samen (fat). cc:@stephenniem Permalink 4:38 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb This is likely to be wrong. Arabs had no olives. This may be a pre-Islamic Syriac tradition. The usual “appropriation” by Arabs of Persian, Chaldean and Levantine sciences.   Permalink 4:31 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 2nd version (first was 2015). Permalink 3:54 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The expected P-Value Hacking derivations. Fooled by Randomness. Permalink 3:53 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Philology du Jour: Historically Lebanon refers to the White Mountain, not the coastal cities, collectively called Phoenicia up to Byzantine times. Permalink 2:17 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Snow slowly covering The White Mountain above Northern Phoenicia. Permalink 2:13 AM – 1 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Are you for or against Twitter polls? Permalink 4:18 PM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The median academic paper is read by ~ 2 pple. Some economists like Stiglitz have 10^5 citations with negative contribution to society (advice on FNMA/Venzuela is worse than silence). Same with econometrics. Do the math. Permalink 12:24 PM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Not quite the same origins. Levantine is inherited from much older languages than Arabic. I did a statistical analysis of words.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:17 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 3) For instance one may invoke justice and equality to completely open borders between Eu & Africa (or US & Mexico) & call anyone who disagree “racist”. The definition of freedom is more robust. Permalink 6:05 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 2) freedom of speech is a robust definition, scale invariant, and rigid across time and situations. Justice and other concepts are relative and vary with time, place, and scale. Permalink 5:53 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb As much as I fight Shermer’s bad empiricism & pseudo-rationalism, I support him in his endeavor to promote freedom of expression as the pivotal element of intellectual life.   Permalink 5:35 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb It all starts with writing in the vernacular. And the understanding that the “Arabs” in Algeria are predominantly of Beber origin. Permalink 4:23 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Algeria will probably be the first Arab League “Member” to de-Arabize, renew with its West-Med historical roots.   via @Algérie Part Permalink 1:08 AM – 30 Nov 2017

@_skininthegame Met Nassim “No-BS” Taleb at Kusturica concert in Moscow. Partying with the Russians. Thanks for everything @nntaleb Permalink 7:37 PM – 29 Nov 2017

Russians, Old Arbat, Academics, Twitter, Sunstein, Friedman, The “LEFT”, Taxes, “irrationality”, Intolerance – Twitter

@nntaleb It is very dangerous for intelligent people to be paranoid. In The Black Swan, 11 years ago Permalink 5:48 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The Russian pathological fixation is such that in the mind of those afflicted EVERYTHING has to have some Russian angle.   Permalink 5:39 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Now when it comes to history, this is the real ting.   Permalink 4:40 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb As proof that the Arabic alphabet not adapted to Lebanese, in Garshuni ܐܶ vs in Arabic ايه which is NEVER the correct sound. The Latin Alphabet remains close to the Phoenician alphabet & much more adapted to our sounds. Permalink 4:24 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@jackrim1 Possibly one of the best book cover quotes ever @nntaleb Permalink 3:41 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb GQ is the philosopher John Gray. Permalink 3:20 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Thanks friends, instead of having endorsements from hotshots we opted for “Joe from Chicago” style blurbs –real not fake readers. Permalink 3:17 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The code. Argument that 13 has highest probability to follow. Permalink 12:03 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The water in Moscow makes you more formal with probability. Solving a @CutTheKnotMath problem   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:00 PM – 29 Nov 2017

@Learn_lebanese The Lebanese É does not exist in Arabic. šÉyef fÉyet LebnÉn #LebaneseVsArabic Permalink 6:19 AM – 29 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Lesson #2: if you are tipsy, there is some elegance you need to maintain. Permalink 1:48 PM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Lesson #1: to get drunk with Russians, train to the following: no shame in being tipsy. It takes some training. Permalink 1:42 PM – 28 Nov 2017

@mdpopescu This. It drives me nuts (one might say it triggers me ) to see scientists take credit for engineers’ work. Scientists tell you that lasers cannot possibly work. Engineers make them work anyway. Scientists come back and claim another victory for science.   Permalink 10:10 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb This is the discussion in Antifragile about “academic” discoveries that were in fact made by practitioners. Permalink 7:45 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Errata: Meant 1 in 100,000. Also note that the net contribution of economics/finance is negative. Permalink 7:35 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb I need some help. I am in Old Arbat trying to buy trinkets and need a more reliable souvenir shop. Permalink 5:37 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Which explains why, in Georgian restaurants in Moscow, I am greeted like a local cousin until I open my mouth. Permalink 5:31 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The odds of an academic “researcher” producing anything eventually used by society is of the order of .00001%. That includes scientists. The odds for a baker: 100% Permalink 5:08 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb People collectively chosen for their misunderstanding of tail risk, both before and after the crisis.   Permalink 2:57 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb We face 3 predators: The State, Near-State Institutions (e.g. academia, media) & Large Corporations. Large corps end up destroying themselves (life expec. <10 y in SP500). Others stick and grow.   Permalink 2:17 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The problem with Lebanon is rent-seeking (and the inequality coming from it), not inequality per se. Permalink 2:04 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb In other words Krugman falls for the mistake: “For academics there is no difference between academia and the real world. In the real world there is”. Permalink 12:48 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Inded ideas don’t have skin in the game if the people holding them don’t.   Permalink 12:17 AM – 28 Nov 2017

@maciejolpinski why a 17 year old altcoin trader might be more ‘rational’ than any Twitter crypto-theorist (including myself), opinion without option < option without opinion Permalink 11:16 PM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Sloppiness alert: rising “life expectancy” has no effect on social security. It is driven by childhood mortality. You care about conditional life expectancy >65 (or 68). This is very common mistake.   Permalink 2:24 PM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Note that neither medicine nor engineering are academia-driven pursuits, rather practice and apprenticeship-based. Permalink 2:14 PM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Erratum 2 Antikhrupkost Permalink 1:03 PM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Footnote: Lektchuring Birds How to Fly in Antifragile discusses the myth that science -> technology, rather than reverse. Permalink 12:48 PM – 27 Nov 2017

@The_Cyrenian But by all means, send hundreds of millions more to terrorists to keep killing Syrian Christians like me and burning our churches to the ground… Permalink 11:32 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Academics, when they leave academia become at best back-office support staff, not decision-makers. Not like the grocery store owner who owns his own risk. Permalink 10:23 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Erratum: Москва Permalink 9:59 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb If majority of academics vote Democrat, it is not random: they 1) don’t have skin in the game, (others take risks for them) 2) are not productive members of society but want to lecture others on what to do 3) have steady income etc.   Permalink 9:52 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Mockba Many many Russians interested in Antikhtupkim and disorder… Was told there is no Russian recipe for squid ink. Permalink 9:43 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The NYT generalizing: because its friends have problems, ALL men are a problem. Shoddy. Same defensive generalization when I accuse someone w/o skin in the game of being a BS vendor/pseudoexpert: Taleb calls “everybody” a BS vendor/pseudoexpert. Permalink 1:02 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb In other words, such a reasoning would lead to preemptively arrest all vegetarians w/mustache. Permalink 12:19 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The logical fallacy of affirming the consequent. If ALL wars are preceded by tensions, NOT ALL tensions lead to war (empirically, most tensions lead to agreements/parties). If ALL members of the Smith family all tall, NOT ALL tall pple from Smith family.   Permalink 12:08 AM – 27 Nov 2017

@TMFStoffel When I read things like this — supporting @nntaleb’s theory of the body’s antifragility and the eventual harm of interventionism — it makes me wonder about ever icing a pulled muscle, taking ibuprofen, etc again   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:55 PM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb A speculation in Antifragile.   Permalink 10:00 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@romepix A moment in #Naples #Italy Permalink 5:40 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Finally getting rid of IYIs and Empty Suits.   Permalink 4:21 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Twitter getting a taste of its medicine.   Permalink 12:38 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Ergodic measures of inequality give a v. different story. Cc: @ole_b_peters Permalink 12:34 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb This is class-envy driven BS both statistically & philosophically. Unfortunately it is infecting Lebanon.   Permalink 12:32 AM – 26 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Presence in South England: You can see how an Anatolian/Syrian gene went NorthWest with Roman soldiers (the “diversity” of that ignorant Mary Beard). Permalink 2:12 PM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 20 years ago…   Permalink 1:05 PM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Attention conspiracists: I am on my way to Moscow. Just letting you know, speculate & theorize. (Last trip was cut short for personal reasons.) Permalink 10:43 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Fellow is a NYT columnist. Now if you don’t classify this fellow as repressive, authoritarian, insultingly illiberal “liberal”, you have a problem reasoning.   Permalink 8:57 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Fellow is a NYT columnist. Now if you don’t classify this fellow as repressive, authoritarian, insultingly illiberal “liberal”, you have a problem reasoning.   Permalink 8:57 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The point is not so much plagiarism as the fact that readers get offended seeing ethical breaches. Permalink 6:56 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Plagiarism alert: by one Luca de Sandro in @StartingFinance. Luckily, readers shout fraud when they see fraud. Permalink 6:40 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Statists who want to impose topdown solutions on pple agst their will have the NERVE to talk abt “authoritarianism”. “Nudger” @CassSunstein, clueless abt risk/probability, tried to manipulate citizens under Obama, (s.a. prevent them from knowing they were consuming GMOs). Permalink 5:10 AM – 25 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The bankruptcy of the NYT? of Monsanto? The collapse of Saudi Barbaria? Permalink 5:01 PM – 24 Nov 2017

@GabrielSaidR I agree but religion did matter here – it was a Sufi mosque.   Permalink 11:50 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@anhistorian In honor of Thomas Friedman’s latest love letter to Saudi here is 70 years of the NY Times describing #Saudi royals in the language of #reform. Permalink 7:26 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Arabic root same as other Semitic ones. Permalink 7:20 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb This is the reasoning defect by which Arabist idiots and Western IYIs deem that if word in Levantine has similar Arabic root, it comes FROM Arabic. On Wikipedia Levantine is called “Levantine Arabic” when Arabic came LATER. Permalink 7:14 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Erratum: I meant גבר in Heb not גָדוֹל. GVR root. Permalink 7:00 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Algebra is NOT necessarily from Arabic. That’s the problem w/ignorant historians of science. 2 roots: AKKADIAN (Babylon): gabaru =>compute(equivalence betw. solar & lunar._ CANNANITE & ARAMAIC: GBR is to “make bigger” (גָדוֹל in Heb = powerful), gabra= man/strong in Aram.   Permalink 6:41 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The J2b1 concentration, while hard to reverse-engineer w/the (elementary) probability used by geneticists, is relatively easy to do via Brownian Bridge. Permalink 5:44 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb New book uses Thomas Friedman @tomfriedman as representative of the criminally stupid no-skin in the game BS vendor/pearshape warmonger who destroys societies. Permalink 5:08 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Final, with thanks. Permalink 3:47 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb My attempt at solution. Permalink 2:37 AM – 24 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Dear @ehsani22, relax, NYT’s @tomfriedman is the perfect negative indicator; NEVER been right on anything: Iraq, Lybia, Syria, Leb, Trump, globalization, complexity. Means MBS and Saudi Barbaria are doomed.   Permalink 6:05 PM – 23 Nov 2017

@mns Crucial point. Overuse of words we have to describe atrocities not only diminishes victims of those past atrocities, but it blunts the main weapon (language) we have to prevent future atrocities   Permalink 3:36 PM – 23 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 3) Monoculturist. Permalink 9:58 AM – 23 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Note that I put “LEFT” in quotes. A lot of people on the left w/discernment abilities or civil libertarians, pacifists, nonstatists, localists, communitarians, etc. do not identify w/such a category. Permalink 8:53 AM – 23 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Thanksgiving Quiz, continuation of @CutTheKnotMath’s random interval problem.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:42 AM – 23 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The “LEFT”: Repressive. Anti-localist, anti-decentralization. Anti freedom of speech. Warmongering, militarist. Interventionist. Manipulation of pple w/nudges. Elitist/IYI. Anti self-determination of minorities worldwide. Race obsessed. Pro-Salafascists. Anti #SkinintheGame Permalink 6:08 AM – 23 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Decisions are not about epistemic beliefs, but operational ones. Religion is often very rational…   Permalink 12:16 PM – 22 Nov 2017

@AStratelates Nope. As @nntaleb points out, EVEN IF THE SUPERNATURAL DOESN’T EXIST and prayer doesn’t work, it fulfills our intervention tendency without harm. You’re just a bigoted asshole if you’re denigrating people praying.   Permalink 9:58 AM – 22 Nov 2017

@DonTravlos As the son of one of the victims of hitler glad someone with the authority of a Taleb finally said it Permalink 9:47 AM – 22 Nov 2017

@garyruskin “The best virtue requires courage,” writes @nntaleb   “If I were to describe the perfect virtuous acts, it would be to take currently frowned upon positions, those penalized by the common discourse (particularly when funded by lobbyists).” ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:42 AM – 22 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Blabbering Pseudolib Idiots Took Over Academia: The idea of comparing someone to Hitler: 1) who doesn’t actively conduct genocide, 2) invade neighbors, 3) muzzles speech , 4) etc. is an insult to the true victims of Hitler.   Permalink 4:05 AM – 22 Nov 2017

@CaesarIpse An inmersive week in philosophy, finance, markets and risk taking from bright practitioners who know their “ting” and awesome peers!   Permalink 12:20 PM – 21 Nov 2017

@CutTheKnotMath A problem of random intervals   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:29 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 12) The Scandinavians (and the Swiss) get it that taxation requires a level of TRUST found in municipalities, possibly regions, never large anonymous states. (Scalability & Skin in the Game)   Permalink 8:57 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb We managed with RWRI a technical education that has no BS no pol correctness &no admin fat.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 6:52 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 11) As tribes grow, I can understand paying protection money to warriors: Pax Romana/Ottomana/Habsburgianana even Americana to preserve PROPERTY RIGHTS. Historical rate ~2-10%. It is much harder to understand coercive redistribution & subsidies to rent seeking bureaucrats. Permalink 6:28 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 10) SCALING. A- Imagine you’re a hunter. You give a share (say ⅓) to a pool for invalid members of tribe; for social norms & #SITG symmetry. B- Community grows, someone FORCES you to give ⅓ to an administration managed far away, some of it pays salary of P. Krugman. Permalink 5:45 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb You mean this Falkenstein?   Permalink 4:41 AM – 21 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Mr @_tomazy 1) #Jews went down in Bagdad & Cairo by 100% and 99.99% (not an approximation). If that’s not evidence, I don’t what is. 2) The explicit mission by Qatar/KSA is a Sunni replacement to Alawis. Thank you. Permalink 1:13 PM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 9) CLASS ENVY isn’t from truck driver in South Texas, but from a NY/DC Ivy League educated IYI (Krugman, Stiglitz) w/sense of entitlement upset some “less smart” pple are much richer.   Permalink 11:49 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb That’s the problem with Big Government, not one with taxation. Gabish? Permalink 9:34 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 8) When you disguize CLASS ENVY as an intellectual argument (as Piketty, Krugman, IYIs), it always, always shows. Permalink 7:58 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 7) So we accept tht taxes are collective coersion; we can make it rational by allowing groups to form their own communities w/their own collective rules, as in CHF. This is why the ONLY political orientation I have is LOCALISM. Permalink 7:40 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 6) I only reply to comments that are wrong, not those that are sufficiently stupid to be “not even wrong”. Permalink 7:34 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 5) In that sense taxation can be seen as a Punishment ( جزية) on the wealthy for them to be allowed to stay wealthy. Which is OK, but don’t be fooled. Permalink 6:36 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 4) Islamic law gives insights: taxes are separated as 1) Charity ( زكاة, alms) vs. 2) Punishment ( جزية) (on Dhimmis (like me) to be allowed to stay Christian+ خراج). Charity (~2-3%) goes to the poor, Punishment to state coffers/military. Charity implies *thanking* benefactor. Permalink 6:32 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Accept disproportionate taxation, but be no fool: it is the coercive result of 1man-1vote just as in past it was military force. in LCD, it is patronage. In past, taxation was disguized as “Protection” & small, w/~5-15%. Then became “services”. Now “fairness”. Permalink 6:09 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The reason we have “progressive” taxation is the 1 person-1 vote, with the spin that zero-sum, which applies only to IYI jobs.   Permalink 5:24 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Fake narrative to justify expropriation: 1% of taxpayers pay ~ half of taxes for SAME services. You want them to pay 110%? 200%?   Permalink 4:57 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@bthies_watashi Legibility, explained.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:23 AM – 20 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Arab League = Sunni League. States that will be outside of it will prosper. Like Malta. Permalink 3:28 PM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 1st step, Arab states delegitimized their Jews (1940s) 2nd, they deligitimized Copts (1950s) 3rd, they deligitimized Maronites (1970s) 4th, they deligitimized Alawis (2011) Final step, they deligitimized Shiites (2017) Which means good luck to the Sunni League. .   Permalink 3:19 PM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Exactly my argument “surgeons should not look like surgeons”!!!   Permalink 1:12 PM – 19 Nov 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Problem 4186 from the Crux Mathematicorum Mathematicorum   #FigureThat #math #calculus #inequality ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:15 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Another chapter shows that individual “irrationality” is necessary for collective behavior. Also almost all of Thaler’s work misuses probability distributions.   Permalink 8:48 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Nudging is a mechanism that lead you to act according to Thaler and Sunstein both very ignorant of probability, & increases risk in society.   Permalink 8:39 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Added this to the final draft: the problem with universalists. Permalink 7:03 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Many pseudolibs & other idiots who replied to the Persian Muslim wife point don’t get it that the ONLY evidence of nonracism is one’s private life.   Permalink 6:48 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@BadgerPundit For 99% of us, better to block, not mute. Here’s the classic argument for that:  . But Taleb’s in a different situation, as many read his thread, and he needs to block people who ruin them for everyone. A tragedy-of-the-commons problem. Permalink 6:27 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb NITPICKING: Commenting/debating a point of no relevance to the substance of the argument; whether right or wrong, no effect, while distracting pple. Gabish? Permalink 5:47 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb This is a prime example of nitpicking coupled with distortion of my initial statement.   Permalink 5:42 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Should I block this responder?   Permalink 5:33 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Sunday Heuristic: Block nitpickers before trolls as they damage the discourse much more effectively by diverting it (pple engage nitpickers more than trolls). Permalink 4:53 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb They don’t mention that Wahabis in Saudi Barbaria currently ban dogs as impure animals.   Permalink 4:28 AM – 19 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Why is it that pple, in 2017, still don’t get the properties of Fat Tails? Is it a reasoning defect or because it is so hard? @DrCirillo   Permalink 5:42 PM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 3) And ha! Zaraqu means both BLUE and GREEN! Permalink 4:44 PM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 2) In Aramaic, both Green and Yellow <= ירוק Permalink 4:34 PM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Tarjamt Taḱt Prokrustes xal kinxané-jdid (Modern Canaanite). Permalink 12:37 PM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Tit for tat game theoretic Popper’s Paradox: the minute you cease to tolerate, I become intolerant.   Permalink 8:37 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Semitic Philology Saturday. Recall frm Antifragile that Greeks (and Heb) had no word for color blue. Closest old semitic word for Green is…Erz (->Cedar) or 7ashab (->wood) or ירוק ورق ->paper Permalink 7:31 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@shrykescythe Mike was never even the biggest voice or totally convinced on Pizzagate, yet media decided to do everything to stick the label on him. Brainwashed sheep just parrot “Pizzagate guy” without ever studying the facts. Permalink 6:57 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb When I have drinks w/someone on the left (I do weekly), nobody on the right bothers me. When I have drinks w/someone on the right, the “left” goes wild. (f*** them). #PopperParadox: never, never tolerate intolerance. Permalink 5:45 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb In Brazil, I thought kidnappers settled for 10-20% of the NW of the victim. Saudi Arabia: 70%. Corruption Schmoruption: none shd ever invest in Aramco, stock in a country that expropriates to balance budget. #ضد_آل_سعود Permalink 5:41 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@mikeandallie Finding e by throwing darts:   #math #mathchat inspired by @nntaleb @CutTheKnotMath @giohio and @JohnAllenPaulos Permalink 5:17 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@GreenRupertRead Green Brexit push set to continue despite amendments defeat > Yes: we fight on to save the @PrecPrinciple! [Pse RT!]   Permalink 4:42 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb How do I know that @Cernovich is not racist? #SkinintheGame: He has a Persian Muslim wife (& a half Persian daughter). Ignore talk (by pple & abt pple), observe what people do. Permalink 3:40 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@hichambh Looks like chef Sébastien Bras has read the work of @nntaleb Acclaimed French chef asks to be stripped of three Michelin stars   Permalink 3:26 AM – 18 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Lecture on Cybercrime at RWRI 6: Our policy now is to hire instructors from 1) past attendees 2) people who practice exactly what they talk about. No academic should teach anything nonacademic. Permalink 6:40 PM – 17 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Happy Birthday Mike C @Cernovich Permalink 5:49 PM – 17 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Voila   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:16 PM – 17 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Just a reminder that, as a philosopher @mpigliucci has a problem with Truth.   Permalink 4:19 PM – 17 Nov 2017

@mackthefresh Last day of Real World Risk with @nntaleb. It’s been great! Still waiting for the deadlift demonstration though. Permalink 8:23 AM – 17 Nov 2017

@CutTheKnotMath An inequality in 2+2 variables from SSMA magazine   #FigureThat #math#algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:03 AM – 17 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Thought of the day: never trust the thought & science of anyone who is not free. Being free means no honors, no position, nothing other than one’s own thought. Permalink 5:30 AM – 17 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Some people get that universalism & globalism lead to monoculture.   Permalink 11:24 AM – 16 Nov 2017

@nntaleb My answer is here: SITG vs CONFLICT OF INTEREST Permalink 7:46 AM – 16 Nov 2017

@ProbFact Chaos and the beta distribution   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:12 AM – 16 Nov 2017

@MaxAbrahms Since the start of the Cold War the strategy of U.S. Mideast proxies has been to sell themselves as strategic assets by constantly adjusting their professed utility depending on the latest geopolitical threat.   Permalink 6:22 AM – 16 Nov 2017

@GreenRupertRead The House of Commons has just voted against retaining the @PrecPrinciple into UK law. Good bye protection; hello recklessness and potential devastation of our posterity. A shameful failure of leadership. [Please RT.]   Permalink 11:57 PM – 15 Nov 2017

Ottomans, GMOs, Saudi Barbaria, Macron, Brazil | Twitter

@nntaleb RWRI 7 now open: Feb 5-9 2018   Listening to Robert Fry @financequant lecturing on chaotic systems. Permalink 8:52 AM – 15 Nov 2017

@dhavalpanchal Enterpreunership : Leprechaun’s – playful mischief over purpose. Don’t get imprisioned by ur biz plan. Inspired from #rwri session by @nntaleb. Errors & jumps to conclusions all mine. Permalink 7:06 AM – 15 Nov 2017

@silver_plasmon1 I read Antifragile by Taleb (@nntaleb) 4 times until now. First time I read as a text book to get wisdom to survive. Second time as a memorial statement for Fat Tony. Third time as Das Kapital of Marx with correct mathematics. Fourth time as ethics to know good way to die. Permalink 5:19 AM – 15 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Semitic Philology Du Jour: “I will return in a couple of days” in Lebanese means “I don’t think I can come back any time soon”. Bhal Yawmeyn != in 2 days.   Permalink 10:26 AM – 14 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Ok I need to mend with my Iberic friends: NOTHING is close to the Serrano, etc. Thanks Cesar at the RWRI seminar for the gift Permalink 5:11 AM – 14 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Which explains why in Levantine left is Shmel from Phoenician/Aramaic not Yassar. Permalink 4:18 AM – 13 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Semitic Philology Du Jour: Yamina (right) in Heb/Aram same root as “Yemen” = South; Smola/Shmola(left) same as “Bledel Shem”= North; “Shami“ =Northerner Permalink 4:11 AM – 13 Nov 2017

@nntaleb PATERNITY TEST: These Leb Arabists fed on fabricated theories of migrations from Arabia are in shock, like someone who went through paternity test & realizes his father isn’t his father. Permalink 3:08 AM – 13 Nov 2017

@GreenRupertRead Why are NGOs sceptical of genome editing?   > Useful information… Do share! @nntaleb Permalink 2:03 AM – 13 Nov 2017

@MaxBlumenthal No, you effectively called for the network to be destroyed, then demanded the cast of @RedactedTonight quit and take up work for Teen Vogue, which is guest edited this month by Hillary Clinton. What a joke.   Permalink 7:59 PM – 12 Nov 2017

@nntaleb In fact people like me (Rum millet for Greek Orthodox) were saved by the Ottomans who unlike Arabs allowed Christians a Byzantine or other identity.   Permalink 4:02 PM – 12 Nov 2017

@nntaleb “Geographically, it’s part of the region”: Why do all Arab nationalists bullshit? Athens is MUCH closer than Riyadh. And there is a desert+mountain separating. Permalink 2:55 PM – 12 Nov 2017

@nntaleb People you block feel compelled to read what you post. Permalink 9:52 AM – 12 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Some hope: Collapse of Saudi Barbaria, the most fragile place on the planet. With some compliments about yours truly.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 5:41 AM – 12 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Solution   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:37 AM – 12 Nov 2017

@spartanwarriors Objects of precision and aesthetic appeal….a close-up of the Corinthian columns of the Temple of Bacchus, ca. 150 AD in the #Roman Heliopolis (Baalbek, Lebanon) – Photograph: Philip Maaskant Permalink 3:37 AM – 12 Nov 2017

@AlbertoAtreides What are the main applications of @nntaleb’s ideas to Law and Legal Theory in general? Note that he has explicitly shown us that he’s had influence from Contract Theory Scholastics like Olivi. Curious. It’s something to think upon. Permalink 2:29 AM – 12 Nov 2017

@GreenRupertRead Brits! Please act on this: Crucial moment here for defending the @PrecPrinciple and stopping GMOs:   Permalink 2:37 PM – 11 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Gigantic Squid Ink plate. Permalink 11:35 AM – 11 Nov 2017

@SamiBarakat1916 Kamal salibi is full of shit and is a pan Arabist funded idiot. Science proves all those shit Arabist theories are wrong Permalink 9:42 AM – 11 Nov 2017

@nntaleb And gene flow from the Arabian Peninsula is small.   Permalink 3:58 AM – 11 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Being part of the Ottoman Empire (500 y) was being part of East Med (“Near East”) on top of 3000 y of Greco-Phoenician-Byzantine. Leb airline was “Trans Mediterranean Airlines”, successor “Middle East Airlines” when Arabs started having $$. Arabization is recent. Permalink 3:57 AM – 11 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Good News: The resentment of Saudi Barbaria in Lebanon, across all communities, is helping the country come back to the Eastern Mediterranean & its Phoenician/Greco-Roman heritage, away from the Middle East. Permalink 3:23 PM – 10 Nov 2017

@beachvetlbc How about freeing this study from a $42 paywall, #Monsanto, so we can share all the information& limitations u don’t want people to read ? Permalink 10:34 AM – 10 Nov 2017

@Learn_lebanese Matal tene чan l’farq bēỹn l’leğa l’lebnēniyé wel leğa l’чarabiyé. #lebaneseVsArabic Permalink 9:11 AM – 10 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 3) For those who don’t get it “good neighbor” here doesn’t refer to exchange of holiday gifts, only absence of “tit for tat” & tacit understanding of dynamics. Permalink 8:26 AM – 10 Nov 2017

@nntaleb 2) these game theoretic situations of coordination w/speaking (Axelrod) are common in the animal kingdom. Permalink 8:16 AM – 10 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Leb Shiites & Israel seem to have unspoken non-agression “good-neighbor” pact unblemished for >11 y. No real territorial claims/sources of dispute. Don’t expect the Israelis to go to war for low-IQ-yet-Napoleonic Saudi w/no skin in the game. Gabish? Permalink 8:04 AM – 10 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The problem with such systems is that the longer you wait to fix it, the worse the collapse. Permalink 7:14 AM – 10 Nov 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Problem 4117 from Crux Mathematicorum #FigureThat #math #algebra Permalink 7:12 AM – 10 Nov 2017

@CutTheKnotMath A Followup on Lewis Carroll’s Pillow Problem #FigureThat #math #probability Permalink 5:40 AM – 10 Nov 2017

@normonics Insulting anyone anonymously will surely only deepen your personal problems   Permalink 5:34 AM – 10 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The minority rule caused @GadSaad’s article on the minority rule to be hidden from sight.   Permalink 4:46 AM – 10 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Added entries to the glossary Permalink 4:19 AM – 10 Nov 2017

@nntaleb And remember to NEVER humiliate a bedouin in public. Permalink 3:31 AM – 10 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Saudi Arabia: with so much accumulated fragility, any reform, no matter if positive or negative, will accelerate collapse. Change is v. bad.   Permalink 3:13 AM – 10 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Will Macron be hikacked and forced to resign? Unless he builds Wahabi centers, of course.   Permalink 2:49 PM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Adding: monoculture (intellektshual) ( at the gym have nothing other than twitter to remember) Permalink 2:35 PM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Adding: scalability Permalink 2:33 PM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Adding: merchandizing of virtue. Permalink 2:27 PM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Last minute addition: The Glossary. Any comments? Permalink 1:49 PM – 9 Nov 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Practical Inevitability of Empty Spaces: a collection of tweets in a continued discussion on dart throwing   Permalink 12:58 PM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Looking for first name and city of residence of TakingHayekSeriously @FriedrichHayek Permalink 11:26 AM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Publishers put quotes by hotshots on back of books. I hate it. Told them I would get GENUINE quotes from REAL users e.g. “Joe from Denver”. Collecting quotes from readers (and re-readers) of Incerto & drafts of SITG. Please add to this thread. Permalink 11:15 AM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Nor for us Meds: Bread, olive oil, tapenade/hummus, garlic/herbs, and wine.   Permalink 10:57 AM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Robert Fisk: Hariri was hijacked by Saudi Arabia. #ClownPrinceofSaudiBarbaria   Permalink 9:46 AM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb #ClownPrinceofSaudiBarbaria Permalink 7:30 AM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb My characterization of the Clown Prince of Saudi Barbaria: a low-IQ brat. You can’t be both. Permalink 7:00 AM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Real mathematics is NOT about solving particular probability riddles. It is about the MOST general solution to a given problem.   Permalink 6:35 AM – 9 Nov 2017

@abdota “Peace: Neither Ink nor Blood” — @nntaleb—405-628   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 3:42 AM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb (revision) I wrote the 2 editions of Bed of Procrustes (Incerto, Vol. 3, a book of aphorisms) as tweets under the PROCRUSTEAN BED of 140 ch. limit. No aphorism should exceed ~140 ch. Permalink 2:41 AM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb I wrote the 2 editions of Bed of Procrustes (Incerto, Vol. 3, a book of aphorisms) as tweets under the 140 character limit. No aphorism should exceed ~140 ch.   Permalink 2:28 AM – 9 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Q: What are you trying to do with Skin in the Game (& the Incerto)? A: Separating the fake from the true in anything: business, scholarship, academia, history, weightlifting, speeches, literature, war, mathematics of probability, politics, food… Permalink 1:50 PM – 8 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Resolved. Thanks all! Permalink 1:34 PM – 8 Nov 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Practical Inevitability of Clustering. A collection of excerpts from a discussion that followed @nntaleb’s tweet   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:55 AM – 8 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Correction. The “anti-corruption” crown prince RECENTLY bought a $500 million yacht. My problem isn’t so much the use of corruption to grab power. It’s the war mongering. The fellow is destroying Yemen. Permalink 10:33 AM – 8 Nov 2017

@Nigel_Farage #NeverForget Permalink 9:31 AM – 8 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Technical friends: Which browser should I use for that? Thanks   Permalink 5:43 AM – 8 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The “anti-corruption” crown prince owns a $500 million yacht. Did he buy it with his government salary? Who is being fooled? Who?   Permalink 4:45 AM – 8 Nov 2017

@CutTheKnotMath You throw 16 darts uniformly randomly on 2D map with 16 squares. What is the probability of getting at least half the squares empty? Permalink 4:25 PM – 7 Nov 2017

@nntaleb OK, OK, not as good. But OK. Permalink 1:50 PM – 7 Nov 2017

@nntaleb T Shirt I got in Brazil x nao e f(x) ( x is not f(x) ) Permalink 1:49 PM – 7 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Ok Ok almost as good. Permalink 7:25 AM – 7 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The Brazilian version of Jamon Iberico tastes even better. Permalink 6:58 AM – 7 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Antifragile in Brazil! Permalink 4:50 AM – 7 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Is (war obsessed) Saudi Arabia socially, culturally, and intellectually one of the most BACKWARD nations on Planet Earth? Permalink 1:32 AM – 7 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Note that Monte Carlo methods for the problem converge very slowly. Combinatorial issues. Permalink 12:58 AM – 7 Nov 2017

@nntaleb A country that “confiscates”… Not very comforting investors in an IPO. Anyone thinking of “investing” in Saudi Barbaria is an imbecile.   Permalink 12:38 AM – 7 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Can someone explain why S. Barbaria w/GDP= 20K p capita (only oil), Yuge Youth unemployment, unskilled, Yuge deficit, is involved in wars? Permalink 3:38 PM – 6 Nov 2017

@nntaleb No! No!   Permalink 3:31 PM – 6 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Either media is stupid, or Saudi rulers are stupid, or both Lebanon did not formally declare war &no common border   Permalink 1:10 PM – 6 Nov 2017

@snarwani Where is Saad Hariri, and why did his “resignation” as #Lebanon’s PM take even his own party by surprise? Some background: Permalink 11:32 AM – 6 Nov 2017

@nntaleb The square differences. Nonlinearity: it flattens at 405.   Permalink 10:03 AM – 6 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Brazil Permalink 7:40 AM – 6 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Nudging fails in the only place where I thought it could work: medication routines.   Permalink 7:20 AM – 6 Nov 2017

@ggreenwald So much of the vicious, false, coordinated Dem/media attack on Donna Brazile was amazing, illuminating & horrifying. But this took the prize   Permalink 3:44 AM – 6 Nov 2017

@nntaleb Errata: “with d independent trials” @erugli @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 2:41 AM – 6 Nov 2017

@nntaleb FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS; final solution to the problem   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 2:35 AM – 6 Nov 2017

@mjd1735 Mohammed bin Salman fired him. So much for “sovereignty”.   Permalink 5:05 PM – 5 Nov 2017