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Art of Manliness Podcast, Motley Fool Interview, SITG Reviews

Podcast #395: Skin in the Game

Motley Fool Interview: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

A Celebration of What Works: Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Skin In the Game (2018)

Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life

Neocons, Saudi Barbaria, IYIs, Localism, David Reich, Holy Week | Twitter


via @trishankkarthik

@nntaleb The mental defects of the neo-cons, from Skin In The Game Permalink 7:34 AM – 14 Apr 2018

@sayed_ridha Patriarchates of Antioch and all the East for the Greek Orthodox, Syrian Orthodox and Greek-Melkite Catholic condemn aggression on Syria. Permalink 7:21 AM – 14 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Some background: among other things, IYI @DAaronovitch was a stauch advocate of the Iraq war (&WMDs). This imbecile is still making pronoucements instead of working as an Uber driver in the London suburbs. Permalink 6:52 AM – 14 Apr 2018

@nntaleb You can tell low-intellect NEOCONS: remarks out of a script, randomly selected from “99 negative things to say” In #SkinInTheGame: if neocon babblers can’t think in dynamics (only 1st order thought), it’s bc they are rejects selected to be unimaginative, & incompetent at doing.   Permalink 6:31 AM – 14 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Last night the regime of Saudi Barbaria struck Syria, using its three most faithful agents. Permalink 5:31 AM – 14 Apr 2018

@rory_yeomans This is Britain. This is the new McCarthyite reality. Permalink 3:21 PM – 13 Apr 2018

@nntaleb My 2016 comment on the Syrian war. NOTHING has changed.   Permalink 11:51 AM – 13 Apr 2018

@nntaleb You cannot be both soldier and judge. Permalink 7:48 AM – 13 Apr 2018

@nntaleb A serious problem in the way IYIs (Intellectuals Yet Idiots) frame Syria. They talk about Assad w/o comparing his to the rebels -or as if the rebels were Mother Theresa. They also fail to think in dynamics (what happens after?). #Idiots Permalink 5:48 AM – 13 Apr 2018

@nntaleb When you define yourself as “localist”, nobody frames you in the “partisan” box; both the “left” & the “right” take you for one of them. The only people in favor of centralization are lobbyists, bureaucrats, & DC parasites. Yet the world is centralizing. Permalink 3:17 PM – 12 Apr 2018

@wikileaks POLL: Should the United States military be used to conduct a bombing campaign against the state of Syria? Please retweet for the widest possible poll. Permalink 2:04 PM – 12 Apr 2018

@karthikshaz @RandPaul one of the few sensible rational people left in Washington   @nntaleb @MaxAbrahms Permalink 1:40 PM – 12 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Historians are victims of framing. Malta, Sicily, & Lampedusa, Med islands, are part of “Europe” not “Africa” because…they are Christian. Had they stayed w/Arabs a bit longer, they would now be “African”. Had Tunisia/Algeria stayed Christian, “North Africa” wd be “South Med”. Permalink 1:19 PM – 12 Apr 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Before taking a break, Problem 1 from the APMO 2000:   #FigureThat #math #algebra ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:11 AM – 12 Apr 2018

@jeitoapp Reports from a friend of mine who attended today’s @nntaleb tawk Permalink 8:54 AM – 12 Apr 2018

@nntaleb It is lacking in critical thinking to think that *studying* philosophy will improve your critical thinking.   Permalink 8:47 AM – 12 Apr 2018

@financequant Science is built on falsification, not proof. When you lose that insight, the humility of the genuine skeptic is replaced by the arrogance of scientism. Permalink 7:35 AM – 12 Apr 2018

@MikeTek “If you want to help the world, start a business…we need more risk takers.” @nntaleb dropping the mic (and a few f-bombs) in NYC this morning. Much better than coffee. Permalink 7:07 AM – 12 Apr 2018

@trishankkarthik Popcorn time! Permalink 4:35 AM – 12 Apr 2018

@nntaleb I have never seen a clown publish a book, Mr @KarlreMarks.   Permalink 4:06 AM – 12 Apr 2018

@Cernovich Which country has sponsored the most terrorist attacks on American soil? Permalink 4:54 PM – 11 Apr 2018

@artofmanliness New Podcast: Skin in the Game, with @nntaleb   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:54 AM – 11 Apr 2018

@TMFStoffel A Practical Approach to a Political Divide: This is a brilliant OpEd in the New York Times about the practicality of localism — combinging the efforts of @StrongTowns and it’s anointed patron saint, @nntaleb   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 9:41 AM – 11 Apr 2018

@nntaleb But the nickname for Vladimir Vladimirovich is “Volodya”.   Permalink 7:53 AM – 11 Apr 2018

@RandPaul Promising war by tweet, insults not only the Constitution but every soldier who puts their life on the line. Permalink 6:52 AM – 11 Apr 2018

@WRatHsChilD_ish Permalink 5:06 AM – 11 Apr 2018

@dpinsen You just signed an omnibus bill that authorized military spending that’s more than double what Russia and China spend on their militaries combined.   Permalink 4:42 AM – 11 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Antifragile. The press overused its weapon against Trump. Aphorism: “ A weapon is something you only use once. Or, preferably, never”   Permalink 3:57 AM – 11 Apr 2018

@nntaleb In other words, The SouthMed is an extension of Western Eurasia. The naming of continents is arbitrary “Africa” meant Tunisia in Latin. From the magisteria Reich (2018) Permalink 2:52 AM – 11 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Such a narrative/framing would collapse if it were reframed as “First Southern Mediterranean Emperor”. People are suckers for labels.   Permalink 2:33 AM – 11 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Bruno Tertrais is a propagandist. Why is that junk published in L’Orient Le Jour?   via @LorientLeJour Permalink 2:18 AM – 11 Apr 2018

@BruceGodfrey Enjoying @nntaleb in Incerto: “Skin in the Game.” Book is serious but feels like an indulgent vice. You get both Rav Safra at prayer and Taleb’s barber. Makes me want to visit Phoenicia and drink Ksara with the neo-Canaanites. Permalink 7:28 PM – 10 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Prostitutes!   Permalink 2:54 PM – 10 Apr 2018

@iraqschristians Yes, we are asking fellow Americans to please ask @POTUS @VP to not attack Syria. Attacking Syria only emboldens terrorists who aim to destroy Christianity in Syria. These terrorists have crucified Syrian Christians, kidnapped nuns & bishops, & raped Christian women & girls. Permalink 12:46 PM – 10 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Here is the graph of Maximum/Sum showing the imprint of an infinite mean. Permalink 9:56 AM – 10 Apr 2018

@DanielLMcAdams Hey @realDonaldTrump — have a look at this instead of listening to your idiotic neocons. It’s all fake!   Permalink 8:06 AM – 10 Apr 2018

@normonics @nntaleb did you watch this? proposes SITG for all pundits calling for war at the end. Permalink 5:49 AM – 10 Apr 2018

@deadly_onion Most people are focused on “winning” some contrived competition among their peers. Freedom is making the competition irrelevant. @nntaleb (resurfaced by @readwiseio) Permalink 9:37 AM – 9 Apr 2018

@nntaleb The mechanism, in the U.S., @realDonaldTrump, is still that a person is innocent until proven guilty. It’s a degradation of Western Civilization when the machinery of justice is discharged through the media, the BBC, & “think tanks” funded by Saudi Barbaria. Remember Iraq & WMD   Permalink 6:10 AM – 9 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Or use Max to Sum plot for p^th moment cc: @DrCirillo Permalink 5:43 AM – 9 Apr 2018

@nntaleb An overview in the right direction (anti-abstract universalism, without naming it), though very polite (soft on BS vendors Pinker & Brooks) @yhazony   Permalink 3:33 AM – 9 Apr 2018

@nntaleb You know something has an infinite mean (or variance) from Monte Carlo simulations when different runs give different results, no matter how large the generated sample.   Permalink 8:50 PM – 8 Apr 2018

@oldlevantine @nntaleb shouldn’t apologize for speaking Phoenician during @GadSaad ‘s chat with the author of Incerto   Permalink 10:26 AM – 8 Apr 2018

@Sophiam1973 The bystander effect – the more people the less moral. Paradoxical cos morality is allegedly designed to make society work. Maybe @nntaleb is right – morality doesn’t scale well. Permalink 3:42 AM – 8 Apr 2018

@nntaleb You want to get your enemies to call you “arrogant”. I’ve never called someone I disrespect “arrogant”, even if they were; I’d say “ignorant” or “fool” or “psychologist”.   Permalink 1:54 AM – 8 Apr 2018

@nntaleb And in Arabic, the “Arabian Sea” was called the Green Sea. Compatible with: Black=North Green=East White=West Red=South Permalink 1:49 AM – 8 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Philology du jour, chromonaming: In Turkish, the Med is Akdeniz (Ottoman: Bahr-i-Sefid) (WHITE Sea), BLACK & RED Seas are Kara Deniz& Kızıl Deniz. Old Arabic name was “Ba7r El Abyad”( White sea), then “ba7r erRum” now “Mutawassit”). How did the color designations come abt? Permalink 1:36 AM – 8 Apr 2018

@nntaleb ERRATUM (Skin in the Game) Copyeditors can change the meaning of your text “to make it better”, and in a way that escapes your notice. Permalink 11:00 PM – 7 Apr 2018

@MaxAbrahms Students of international relations are taught that even adversaries can generally be understood as essentially rational actors. Not so for #Assad, though.   Permalink 5:06 PM – 7 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Happy Resurrection! Permalink 12:05 PM – 7 Apr 2018

@john_f_hamer @nntaleb : The single best review of Skin In the Game (2018) to come out thus far:   Permalink 7:26 AM – 7 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Roman temple (another) 3.9 miles from Amioun on Google Maps. (3ayn 3ikrin) Permalink 7:19 AM – 7 Apr 2018

@nntaleb It would be interesting to look at this in connection with the volume paradox.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:54 AM – 7 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Orthodoxy is alive in Phoenicia. Greek Orthodox Good Friday: I had to stand outside as all churches in Amioun were full, with crowds outside. Permalink 1:28 PM – 6 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Everyone likes the “he is an a*****le”   Permalink 6:54 AM – 6 Apr 2018

@nntaleb On the way back, discovered a narrow road behind my house; never knew it existed. Permalink 6:33 AM – 6 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Motley Fool Interview: Nassim Nicholas Taleb @themotleyfool #stocks   Permalink 6:27 AM – 6 Apr 2018

@nntaleb From Reich’s book: there are advantages to being of short height in an agricultural society, & tall in a hunting one. Permalink 4:19 AM – 6 Apr 2018

@nntaleb So that height privilege needs more testing to see if it applies to Northern Eurasia, not the Mediterranean. Permalink 3:33 AM – 6 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Strange: N. W-Eurasians have genes that makes them taller, S. W-Eurasians (Meds) that make them shorter. And negative sayings about height by Meds: “Homo longus rare sapiens” “Tawil habil” “En un corps grand bien rarement, Sagesse prend son ébergement” “Uomo lungo, testa corta”   Permalink 3:31 AM – 6 Apr 2018

@nntaleb You can tell a field is BS when different methods give different solutions. In real science, you get the SAME result NO MATTER what method is used. Observe probability pbms by Maestro Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath: numerous solutions -some drawing on separate branches of math.   Permalink 2:06 PM – 5 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 2) So according to Arabists, HL Gates is “racist” for being interested in ancestry. Permalink 1:25 PM – 5 Apr 2018

@nntaleb 1) Low-IQ-Arabists trying to smear as “racist” minorities who don’t identify w/Arabism Clueless: +Not being an Arab doesn’t mean superior or inferior +Arabists started the narrative of descent from Arab tribes + African-Americans interested in their roots are now…racist? Permalink 1:07 PM – 5 Apr 2018

@johndurant This should be good: @tylercowen requests questions he should ask @nntaleb   Permalink 10:58 AM – 5 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Vegan kebbe made with herbs for Orthodox holy week. Permalink 10:14 AM – 5 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Life is much, much easier when you treat all humans as flawed and imperfect, but flawed in quite different ways. Permalink 9:01 AM – 5 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Ixsir (sorry I had wine) Permalink 7:02 AM – 5 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Izair Winery in Northern Canaan, 14.1 miles from Amioun on Google Maps. Permalink 6:51 AM – 5 Apr 2018

@yvessmith Economists’ Dubious Relationship with Trade Policy: Comparative Advantage is a System that Works for the Wealthy   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 2:51 AM – 5 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Mr Greaves, I systematically block people who use labels not reasoning, false analogies and exhibit defects in thinking and empirical representation –in other words babbling idiots — even if they do not interact with me. Gabish? Permalink 12:47 AM – 5 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Correction: it wasn’t Vox but Aeon magazine. Note 1: “France” is a nation with 17 languages because it was the territory of the king, not Phoenicia because they were city-states. Note 2: Phoenician writings have been destroyed; historians don’t get SAMPLING BIAS. #Klueless Permalink 12:33 AM – 5 Apr 2018

@nntaleb A lot of idiots-Arabists are citing a Vox article saying “Phoenicians didn’t exist” because… they weren’t organized as a nation 1-They had a clear genetic differentiation (@PZalloua) on PCA (+language) 2-Argument cancels every “nation” that didn’t share a common ruler   Permalink 12:09 AM – 5 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Whatever you say about Trump, nonbureaucrats & people who spent time w/skininthegame like to *close* deals. Bureaucrats let situations rot for decades. Decades. Decades. Next: *close* deal with Iran, please.   Permalink 11:52 PM – 4 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Antifragile, nonlinearity of iatrogenics   Permalink 2:24 PM – 4 Apr 2018

@nntaleb David Reich’s book: buy two copies, just in case you lose one.   Permalink 12:09 AM – 4 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Holy week in Greek Orthodox Phoenicia: vegan food, arak, and rose wine. Permalink 10:57 AM – 3 Apr 2018

@nntaleb OK, OK, there is a second lecktchur in NY.   Permalink 9:30 AM – 3 Apr 2018

@nntaleb If Fat Tony got on some diet (say w/beeds & Brus sprouts/miso soup, thatkindofstuff), & became the “Formerly Fat Tony” (or Formerly Horizontally Challenged Tony), would he lose his charm, persona, etc.? In other words would the thin, “Formerly Fat Tony” still be “Fat Tony”? Permalink 9:05 AM – 3 Apr 2018

@spyrosmakrid M4 Competition:   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:40 AM – 3 Apr 2018

@SylviaNetwork “Nunca digas ‘No’ dos veces si lo dices en serio” y otros aforismos de @nntaleb:   Permalink 5:54 AM – 2 Apr 2018

@spyrosmakrid The major finding is: ”The forecasting accuracy of ML forecasting methods is lower than the worst of statistical ones while the accuracy of more than half the ML methods is lower than a random walk”. M4 Competition:   will solve the accuracy issue. Permalink 5:11 AM – 2 Apr 2018

@REXvsDeji The yardstick for measuring rationality is survival, not intellectual constructs that are only relevant to…..intellectuals. So mocking lay people for using crude heuristics to navigate the world is just signalling. Remember the segment he posted online. Permalink 4:52 AM – 2 Apr 2018

@Cholagio It would be a biggest understatement to say that I was excited to meet @nntaleb Meeting people that have inspired you is tricky, as you never know who they turn out to be. Permalink 4:45 AM – 2 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Interventionistas Outraged Over Trump’s Syria Withdrawal: “We Took The Oil. We’ve Got To Keep The Oil” | Zero Hedge   Permalink 12:13 AM – 2 Apr 2018

@phl43 En France on appelle ça des fonctionnaires.   Permalink 2:01 PM – 1 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Like Orthodox Chanting Permalink 9:55 AM – 1 Apr 2018

@nntaleb With 4 Armenians. Permalink 9:31 AM – 1 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Khachapuri in Tbilisi Permalink 9:25 AM – 1 Apr 2018

@nntaleb Georgia was part of Antioch, then Moscow. And happy Palm Sunday! Permalink 10:25 PM – 31 Mar 2018

@alexandersquats .@nntaleb   Permalink 4:47 PM – 31 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Actually, not Zoroastrian. Must be Nestorian or ancient Pagan. Permalink 2:46 PM – 30 Mar 2018

@mikeandallie After a day of running the kids all over the place, a glass of wine and @nntaleb book recommendation Permalink 2:07 PM – 30 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Ashoura rites come from the same ancient Christian source. Same with some aspects of ancient Soufism, & some Zoroastrianism.   Permalink 8:23 AM – 30 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Tbilisi: Signs in Georgian and English; people speak Georgian and Russian. Permalink 7:26 AM – 30 Mar 2018

@JYuter “If you give an opinion, and someone follows it, you are morally obligated to be, yourself, exposed to its consequences.” – @nntaleb Skin in the Game There’s some aspect of this in Torah regarding halakhic decision making Permalink 6:27 AM – 30 Mar 2018

@nntaleb First book review by an academic (a political scientist no less) who did not get offended.   Permalink 3:31 AM – 30 Mar 2018

@nntaleb I mean you can detect who feels rich based on how much they talk about money. Permalink 10:58 AM – 29 Mar 2018

@nntaleb The definition of wealth is thought to be relative, proportional to neighbors, or one’s aims, etc. No: Is wealthy he or she who doesn’t talk about money. Permalink 10:42 AM – 29 Mar 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Taking Turns to Toss a Die   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:03 AM – 29 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Chartwell Speakers, can you IMMEDIATELY remove me as a speaker from your page? This is despicable, putting people’s bio as if you represented them. I am not a lecture bureau commodity. @Chartwell_Ideas Permalink 7:23 AM – 29 Mar 2018

@navydish Jobs on consulting. Is this what @nntaleb’s skin in the game is about? “Coming in and making recommendations but not owning the implementation results in a fraction of the value and opportunity to learn and get better. You do get a broad cut at companies but it is very thin.” Permalink 2:44 AM – 29 Mar 2018

What should I ask Nassim Taleb? | MarginalRevolution

From Tyler Cowan’s blog. Some great questions in the thread.

What should I ask Nassim Taleb?
I will be doing a Conversation with him, and I really have been enjoying the reread of his body of work. What should I ask him? CWT fans will, by the way, receive a double treat. After my talk with Taleb, Taleb will have an exchange with Bryan Caplan.

‘Skin In The Game’ – With Special Guest Nassim Nicholas Taleb | YouTube


Streamed live on Mar 15, 2018
New York Times bestselling author of “Skin in the Game” Nassim Nicholas Taleb joins today’s Liberty Report to discuss the “interventionistas” who produce chaos everywhere in the name of “doing good.” What does it mean to have “skin in the game”? Tune in!

Bureaucracy, Cliff Asness, Dictator, Monsanto, Boltan, Wolfram, Tillerson, Genealogy, Pi Day, Pompeo | Twitter

@nntaleb On a long flight to Tbilisi, a new book that opens the new science. Permalink 12:16 PM – 28 Mar 2018

@LorenzTrader “Bureaucracy is a construction by which a person is conveniently separated from the consequences of his/her actions.” @nntaleb #SkinInTheGame Permalink 11:38 AM – 28 Mar 2018

@thackerpd I took exact measures of that depth here: Flacking for #GMOs How the Biotech Industry Cultivates Positive Media—and Discourages Criticism   One of the reporters, @savortooth, has since inserted his nose even further up academic tuchus Permalink 7:14 AM – 28 Mar 2018

@nntaleb L’7ayét wa2fét 3izz Permalink 7:11 AM – 28 Mar 2018

@nntaleb On a scale of 0 to 100, paternity tests count as 99.99 and written/oral history count for .01. Apply that to populations. That’s plain stat/probability. We are seeing science in action. @iosif_lazaridis   Permalink 6:18 AM – 28 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Book reviewers now have skin in the game: they are now unaware that their review can be turned into a test of reading comprehension –SAT style. For instance you can gauge @EasterbrookG’s reading comprehension level from this.   Permalink 5:13 AM – 28 Mar 2018

@nntaleb It is the opposite of: religions avoiding to pronounce some holy words spelled out in full on the page. There is a demarcation between the holy and the profane, or the more or less holy and the profane. Permalink 4:33 AM – 28 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Aesthetics. I don’t like to see bulls**t fully spelled on a page, though I don’t mind seeing it on a screen.   Permalink 3:43 AM – 28 Mar 2018

@axgry .@nntaleb is this what you mean by “skin in the game” ?   Permalink 2:26 PM – 27 Mar 2018

@sharbatanu A packed hall listened to Mikhail Gromov quote Nassim Nicholas Taleb as “If you hear a ‘prominent’ economist using the word ‘equilibrium’ or ‘normal distribution’, just put a rat down his shirt” Permalink 10:38 AM – 27 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 5) There is this great theorem by Dubins and Savage, but I owe the much simpler games example to Cliff Asness @CliffordAsness who mentioned it in 1999 at lunch in NYC.   Permalink 2:06 PM – 26 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 4) This is another example where pathologizing mental accounting by the Uberklueless and Verbiagiastic Richard Thaler @r_thaler fails: his model considers such path dependent strategies irrational. Permalink 2:01 PM – 26 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 3) The general principle #Antifragile is that when the payoff is bigger or you have your back to the wall you go for maximum variance (convexity). When the downside is bigger you go for minimum variance. Why explains why winning teams mark time and losing teams take risks. Permalink 1:50 PM – 26 Mar 2018

@mgpolitis Could be a variant of the theme “Η ημιμάθεια είναι χειρότερη από την αμάθεια”   Permalink 12:43 PM – 26 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 2) Here is my solution, will generalize showing results across all regimes. Convexity (optionality) beats skills. Any time. #Antifragile @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 12:14 PM – 26 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 1) This is a grrrrreat case study by Maestro Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath showing OPTIONALITY matters more than skills: You can have >53% chance of winning when odds are against you is you have the option of switching between 2 (strategies, both of which have odds against you).   Permalink 12:11 PM – 26 Mar 2018

@MaxMakz #incerto change lives. Thank you / Danke / Спасибо @nntaleb Permalink 11:15 AM – 26 Mar 2018

@ShapsterD the times and @nntaleb on the same page for once? Permalink 9:57 AM – 26 Mar 2018

@Cernovich Paging @nntaleb for his excellent article, “The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority”   Permalink 9:32 AM – 26 Mar 2018

@nntaleb The opposite of education isn’t ignorance but miseducation. Permalink 6:09 AM – 25 Mar 2018

@nntaleb That pill has to potential to transforming any regular person into an economist.   Permalink 5:00 AM – 25 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Soul in the game. He died for the sake of others. RIP, with our prayers and greatest respect.   Permalink 3:50 PM – 24 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Where revealing that you have skin in the game violates the principle that one should not market virtue (except when taking risk, by taking risk).   Permalink 2:12 PM – 24 Mar 2018

@CutTheKnotMath A simple (some say “nasty”) integral   #FigureThat #math #calculus ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 11:14 AM – 24 Mar 2018

@GMWatch Stop #Monsanto’s Secretary of State! Mexican corn products widely contaminated with GMOs & #glyphosate. And other news!   #gmo ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 10:45 AM – 24 Mar 2018

@nntaleb I’ve never met a Spanish grammar specialist.   Permalink 8:54 AM – 24 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Nothing wrong abt dismissing someone as a fool or a bulls***ter, i.e., not solid, not reliable in reasoning & conversation. But when someone’s viewpoint escapes a psychologist’s logic, he will impart some psychological cause to the divergence. Permalink 8:52 AM – 24 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Someone at dinner just asked me to define a “dictator”. Someone who doesn’t buy weapons from your government. Permalink 6:05 PM – 23 Mar 2018

@greekhistorypod Sicily – Land of the Phoenicians, via @GillianHovell   Permalink 2:00 PM – 23 Mar 2018

@LorenzoWVilla In linea con quanto sostiene @nntaleb   Permalink 12:02 PM – 23 Mar 2018

@nntaleb I am not involved. BTW the technical SILENT RISK shows the plumbing behind The Black Swan.   Permalink 8:00 AM – 23 Mar 2018

@SyrianLionesss Mothers day mass earlier this week in #Aleppo #Syria Permalink 7:54 AM – 23 Mar 2018

@chris_walker_ Inspired by @nntaleb, I tried cuttlefish ink pasta in Venice. I think it was the real thing! Permalink 7:14 AM – 23 Mar 2018

@thackerpd Spinning Science & Silencing Scientists: A Case Study in How the Chemical Industry Attempts to Influence Science   Missed this House Report on disinformation created by #Monsanto operatives cc: @MariahCBlake @fastlerner Permalink 5:56 AM – 23 Mar 2018

@BrankoMilan My review of @nntaleb tetralogy   Permalink 7:13 PM – 22 Mar 2018

@nntaleb One thing that struck me at NASA-JPL: these were scientists, many PhDs, but were not academics. It hit me that they were BS-free: from contact w/real world, w/results in the micro world. It takes a certain mindset to send a robot to Mars AND make it actually get there.   Permalink 6:37 PM – 22 Mar 2018

@nntaleb No!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!   Permalink 4:11 PM – 22 Mar 2018

@JulianAssange 811 WikiLeaks files on John Boltan:   Permalink 3:58 PM – 22 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Out understanding of history would be much, much improved if “North Africa” was called “South Med” instead. Too many people think in words. Permalink 1:04 PM – 22 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Witness.   Permalink 9:59 AM – 22 Mar 2018

@noemie_issan Les honnêtes hommes, ça lit Montaigne et le Talmud. Un petit commentaire sur un narratif talmudique dans le dernier livre de @nntaleb “Jouer sa peau”   Permalink 9:32 AM – 22 Mar 2018

@Jevaughn_Brown He ties ancient wisdom to modern insights with mathematical/scientific rigor while making it all accessible to the non-technical AND hilarious at the same time. Just incredible. Permalink 8:22 AM – 22 Mar 2018

@nntaleb BS vendors usually write popular science/philosophy books, those that tell people what they want to hear. Non BS vendors write anti-popular science/philosophy, those that disturb the maximum number of people. Permalink 6:14 PM – 21 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Unpopular book here means the book should disturb a certain number of people. Permalink 6:07 PM – 21 Mar 2018

@nntaleb The point is not that Sarkozy took money from Gadhafi. The problem is the ingratitude: he tried to eliminate him right after. Ingratitude is the worst trait in a human being.   Permalink 6:04 PM – 21 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Ramp is the generator of konveksity. Permalink 2:56 PM – 21 Mar 2018

@nntaleb BS vendors usually write popular science/philosophy books. Non BS vendors write unpopular science/philosophy. Permalink 2:54 PM – 21 Mar 2018

@nntaleb JPL lecktchur on Antifragility and Konveksity, in 9 min. Permalink 2:52 PM – 21 Mar 2018

@DaliaGlickman Interjecting as his daughter – my father and Nassim were business colleagues and friends. My father just mentioned Nassim last week and cherished their conversations about all things financial and philosophical. Permalink 7:21 AM – 21 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Ended up hiking with @stephen_wolfram (& others at Bezos’ #Mars2018), in the snow on a steep mountain wearing flaneuring shoes (Italian moccasins without socks). Permalink 5:47 PM – 20 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 6) look at this idiot @marcgunther who fell for it   Permalink 1:35 PM – 20 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 2) You cannot get the open butterfly with sum of sigmoidal functions (they are closed at the ends), but you can with ramp functions. In other words, neural nets can now capture tails of distributions! Permalink 8:31 AM – 20 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 1) Some thoughts from the Bezos #MARS2018 conference. Why Machine learning methods are very intuitive for option traders. Captures functions better than sigmoids (binaries). Permalink 7:47 AM – 20 Mar 2018

@embracethetrend Few men who have a handshake worth trusting. I agree with @nntaleb on the importance of honour   Permalink 7:27 AM – 20 Mar 2018

@The_Cyrenian I am Syrian. In Syria. The “rebels” you and @nikkihaley support have killed many of my friends, and six of my family members – the youngest being two-years-old. Both of you have done nothing but bring death and destruction to us – especially to my community – Syria’s Christians.   Permalink 7:26 AM – 20 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Sorely missed. Permalink 6:44 AM – 20 Mar 2018

@nntaleb RIP Rabbi Tony Glickman, who said “life is long gamma”. You will be missed.   Permalink 6:40 AM – 20 Mar 2018

@TheStoicEmperor Steve Jobs had a very good understanding of @nntaleb’s crucial concept of “skin in the game.” Permalink 11:26 PM – 19 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Wolfram is a mathematician with skin in the game!   Permalink 6:12 PM – 19 Mar 2018

@lawrennd Very lucky to spend time with @stephen_wolfram and @nntaleb .. we’re talking about you @matthewsyed Permalink 6:08 PM – 19 Mar 2018

@mvachhar Sadly this won’t be the last time this happens. No #skininthegame (@nntaleb) means that bad actors are not removed from the ecosystem, leading to bad outcomes over and over again. Permalink 11:22 AM – 19 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Advice given to any young person: “I can’t tell you what to do. I can tell who what I’ve done. I’ve instinctively never gotten into a zero-sum business, such as academia, sports, bureaucracy, etc. The mark of a zero-sum business is hierarchy.” (Academia is a quarter position.) Permalink 7:57 AM – 19 Mar 2018

@kunalb11 “Men destroy each other during war, themselves during peacetime.” ― @nntaleb Permalink 3:26 AM – 19 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Trading prices are minority rules, not average of opinions. If there is wisdom, it’s the wisdom of the minority.   Permalink 12:14 PM – 18 Mar 2018

@nntaleb I agree, but social media makes it easy to counter mob with mob. Eventually neutralizes.   Permalink 11:33 AM – 18 Mar 2018

@nntaleb I know how to select co-authors.   Permalink 9:45 AM – 18 Mar 2018

@LouisLebbos A few more examples of Beirut architecture from my trip last month Permalink 7:40 AM – 18 Mar 2018

@CutTheKnotMath Random Numbers And Obtuse Triangle   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 6:42 AM – 18 Mar 2018

@Extrachelle #Beirut balconies. Permalink 3:26 AM – 18 Mar 2018

@nntaleb For instance, for a linear payoff, if you predict an event priced at 1% probability, you can be wrong 99% of the time. For the same probability w/ a convex payoff, you can be wrong 999 times out of 1000 and still do very well. Permalink 2:47 AM – 18 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 2) In other words, the predictions that matter are those with a large payoff and little costs. If you predict what other people are predicting, you get nothing (but a nice paper track record). Monoculture works for blabbering academics, not traders & people in the real world. Permalink 12:50 AM – 18 Mar 2018

@HarryDCrane Forecasting is anti-fragile among IYIs. Bad forecasts lead to reverse engineering on how forecasts can be improved for next time — most discussion after election focused on improving for next time, instead of stopping w prediction snake oil   Permalink 8:35 PM – 17 Mar 2018

@nntaleb A prediction is wrong only if it costs you something. A prediction is right only if it makes you something. The rest is tawk. #skininthegame. Permalink 6:31 PM – 17 Mar 2018

@TimTravis2 Just finished reading the chapter in Skin in the Game about the michelin star restaurant versus just getting a pizza and was laughing hysterically because it is so true. Loving the book by the way. One of your best. Permalink 6:26 PM – 17 Mar 2018

@nntaleb This was with spelt. Works. Permalink 5:49 PM – 17 Mar 2018

@ArcheRomaion Kinds of Greeks: Alexandrians Cosmopolitan, inquisitive, affluent. At the crossroads of civilizations, the flux only began with the founding of the city in 331 BC. Producing philosophers, scientists, theologians & industrialists, most were expelled to #Greece by Nasser in 1956. Permalink 5:04 PM – 17 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink. Permalink 5:02 PM – 17 Mar 2018

@orestistsinalis Fantastic interview of @nntaleb with @RalphNader on #SkinInTheGame. It’s so good it makes you think deeper about the book.   Permalink 1:08 PM – 17 Mar 2018

@nntaleb No chi vuole la mamma carezza la bambina (sorry for the spelling, z3leni)   Permalink 6:51 AM – 17 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 5) Effectively the “Monsanto troll army” is a shadow of its former self; either funding dropped or they got more careful. I am scheduled to talk to the German press abt Monsanto & meeting members of the board of Bayer in conjunction w/SITG pub in German. Permalink 6:34 AM – 17 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Debunk fake news, ESPECIALLY if they are on the side of your political opinions. It is the hardest thing to do. And make sure your correction of fake news is as vigorous as the inital annoucement. I dislike Gina Haspel & everything she stands for. But I put TRUTH first. Permalink 6:18 AM – 17 Mar 2018

@Sundaresaganesh @nntaleb a perfect Skin in the game – the last shot Permalink 4:07 AM – 17 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Armenians running for elections in Beirut. Wherever they go, Armenians give more than they take. Permalink 4:02 AM – 17 Mar 2018

@AlainPannetier Permalink 1:11 AM – 17 Mar 2018

@nntaleb The man was destroying the IYI den of the state department. For the first time they had adult supervision.   Permalink 5:33 PM – 16 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Here is an example of the Monsanto army.   Permalink 1:55 PM – 16 Mar 2018

@nntaleb I am aware of that, which is why I have been waiting before exposing Monsanto shills such as @keithkloor and @tamarhaspel when they are defenseless after the Bayer integration. Permalink 1:51 PM – 16 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 3) So far I’ve made lemonade out of lemons with my problem with Monsanto. The idea is to use their shills to sell more books. Remember it is typically rejects that become smear campaigners for Monsanto .   Permalink 1:07 PM – 16 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 2) Monsanto has a policy of leaving nothing unanswered. There are stuff in the court papers.   Permalink 1:00 PM – 16 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 1) As expected, looks like Monsanto Shills are retaliating against my stance ag Monsanto in #SkinIntheGame by gaming Amazon Reviews while claiming they are not shills.   Permalink 12:57 PM – 16 Mar 2018

@nntaleb After the Pompeo disaster, is there a possible way to stop Bolton from getting the White House position? Permalink 12:43 PM – 16 Mar 2018

@vonLichtenfeld At jump school, the guys who folded our parachutes had to take one of them at random each week and use it for their own jump. Given +50 jumps was improbable based on physical req.s, this is the definition of SitG Permalink 12:18 PM – 16 Mar 2018

@MattPirkowski Couldn’t script a clearer example of @nntaleb’s concept of Skin in the Game. In fact, he’s mentioned the architectural responsibility codes of Hammurabi many times. This would mean death for the architects in question. Fewer bridges would collapse.   Permalink 10:41 AM – 16 Mar 2018

@nntaleb It was obvious Assad had NO GAIN from using gas. Now they are getting it with SOME delay.   Permalink 5:53 AM – 16 Mar 2018

@nntaleb The risk-based skeptical empirical approach to CLIMATE is here. Permalink 5:32 AM – 16 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Indeed, @clairlemon, you are undoing centuries of skeptical empiricism. One can approach our climate tragedy without SCIENTISM See our   Permalink 5:13 AM – 16 Mar 2018

@skiales He @nntaleb either has impecable timing ..! Or is a tails type of a guy..! Bring the engineers at spot where the dead bodies got collapsed by the bridge & well … #hamurabi the SOB’s RITE WHERE THEY committed the. heinous sin of a #skinlessgame #skininthegame   Permalink 3:34 AM – 16 Mar 2018

@RonPaul ‘Skin In The Game’ – With Special Guest Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb)   Permalink 3:00 PM – 15 Mar 2018

@Sapere_vivere Reading the brilliant Skin In The Game by @nntaleb. Four little words that should be in the forefront of your mind when you think about human existence. Permalink 2:49 PM – 15 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 6) Mr @ImaraWaTijara, let me say it in one sentence” One single DNA test offsets 12 hours of b***ting. Gabish? Permalink 2:32 PM – 15 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 5) We have known since Ruffié and Taleb (1965) [my father’s hobby was scientific genealogy via blood markers] that Koura valley was heavily Macedonian/Western Cypriot & we can see it through DNA. Historians are convinved they can contest paternity tests with tons of verbal BS Permalink 12:05 PM – 15 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 4) As an example of how fabrications work: a Low-IQ Arabist below, @ImaraWaTijara is responding by inventing origins FOR ME and the Greek-Orthodox of the Koura Valley using bogus oral history, when DNA shows no Hawran stock in Koura & in MY OWN DNA (J2b).   Permalink 11:59 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@TMFStoffel While doing some research into our piece, I found this gem from @nntaleb in the @nytimes Note that it was written…… in 2003!   ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 11:38 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@TMFStoffel Here’s one for all of us to chew on from @nntaleb: “every time you open your mouth in a public forum and you say something: * that is not risky or * is meant to improve your image and reputation, every time you do that you are COMPROMISING YOUR ETHICS.” Permalink 10:47 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@nntaleb You can’t be an author without attitude; write on your own terms.   Permalink 9:55 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@RonPaul Grab your seat belts! Today’s Liberty Report is joined by @nntaleb to discuss @nytimes bestselling book #skininthegame — and the “interventionists” braying for war! Live @ noon ET on   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:20 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 3) The other interesting “hard science” discovery is that a) Modern Greeks are the same as ancient Greeks, b) Greeks are largely Anatolian, c) Canaanites are largely Anatolian. Minority rule chapter in #skininthegame : languages travel, genes not so much. Permalink 6:52 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Never argue with someone with the aim of changing his or her mind; focus instead on changing the much less invested minds of the audience. Permalink 6:47 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@nntaleb 2) @PZalloua (Reich collab) showed Leb Shiites were of Phoenician ancestry, caused a shock, but now slowing building a Canaanite identity. I found from his databse that there is ~3% Arab genes in Lebanon & West. Syria. Arabist Historians s.a. Salibi are largely fabricators. Permalink 6:02 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@nntaleb A Lebanese proverb: “If you give a fool a weapon, he will hurt himself”.   Permalink 5:13 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@nntaleb THREAD 1) We are facing a complete and *sudden* rewriting of history using DNA, like paternity tests, disturbs linguists, historians, (recall the Mary Beard affair), archeologists, and Arabists.   Permalink 4:40 AM – 15 Mar 2018

@jordanbpeterson Did you notice, @JustinTrudeau, that a law-abiding Canadian citizen has been DENIED ENTRY by the UK? Do you think she’s more dangerous than the former ISIS fighters you rolled out the welcome mat for in Canada?   Permalink 11:07 PM – 14 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Happy Pi day –and, in the bargain, via Euler’s Identity. “The shortest path between two truths in the real domain passes through the complex domain.” ~ Jacques Hadamard   Permalink 5:32 PM – 14 Mar 2018

@EmPee78 @nntaleb thank you for writing books that are meaningful Permalink 3:01 PM – 14 Mar 2018

@RonPaul We are REALLY looking forward to having @nytimes multiple-time bestselling author @nntaleb joining us tomorrow Thursday live on the Liberty Report @noon ET on   Be there!!!   Permalink 2:11 PM – 14 Mar 2018

@nntaleb I will be discussing the point and inveighing against these depraved interventionistas w/o #skininthegame with @RonPaul and @DanielLMcAdams on Ron Paul’s channel tomorrow at noon. @RonPaulInstitut   Permalink 2:08 PM – 14 Mar 2018

@HarryDCrane Data != information Data = information only if you understand it. Collecting more of something you don’t understand only leads to more confusion. Permalink 12:31 PM – 14 Mar 2018

@CutTheKnotMath A Trigonometric Identity for the Pi Day   #FigureThat #math #geometry #algebra ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 11:30 AM – 14 Mar 2018

@JulianAssange My article on new US Secretary of State nominee Mike Pompeo   Permalink 10:09 AM – 14 Mar 2018

@rjboyle Someone anonymously gifted me a copy of latest book from @nntaleb. Thanks to whomever it may be! Permalink 9:36 AM – 14 Mar 2018

@nntaleb   Permalink 7:23 AM – 14 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Those in “Colonialism” a la Ed. Said/Arabism studies are Fabricators. The French spent 22 years in Lebanon as military mandate (Italo-French was Christians’ education) The Ottomans spent ~501y The Mamluks spent ~220 y The Arabs spent ~250-350 y WTF is this Euro “colonialism”? Permalink 6:03 AM – 14 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Achrafieh, Taleb Family 1923-1972 Permalink 5:49 AM – 14 Mar 2018

@nntaleb MACHINE LEARNING & FORECASTING Announcement: the M4 competition (Makridakis) is open. We will finally figure out how the various machine learning methods fare with time series, without the currently prevailing cherry-picking.   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 4:09 AM – 14 Mar 2018

@WeAreLebanon Fascinating buildings in #Beirut By @elmaalouf #WeAreLebanon Permalink 4:02 AM – 14 Mar 2018

@Confusezeus “Foregone Conclusionism” explained – deserves a hashtag: spot the #foregoneconclusionism   Permalink 4:37 PM – 13 Mar 2018

@DShaywitz Also from @nntaleb Antifragile: skeptical about Baconian model academia -> applied science&tech ->practice; favors tinkering model, see below (includes contrast w/his take on model 1). cc @JamesBessen Permalink 10:28 AM – 13 Mar 2018

@normonics 2 things about Pompeo evidenced by DARK act I very much DO NOT like 1) D act was about denying states the ability to determine their own law. centralizer. what is the point of electing a republican if a centralizer?might as well be a dem. 2) D act was a favor to MON-corporatist Permalink 9:14 AM – 13 Mar 2018

@nntaleb This is a disaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaster.   Permalink 6:32 AM – 13 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Decorators are not users. #skininthegame   Permalink 6:23 AM – 13 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Our Page on GMOs   Permalink 4:34 AM – 13 Mar 2018

@nntaleb Monsanto’s fraudulent claims. Show me papers on tail risks of GMOs. Show me.   Permalink 4:17 AM – 13 Mar 2018

@TMFStoffel Love this. @RalphNader ‘s host: “@nntaleb sounds a little…Republican.” @RalphNader: “You CANNOT pigeonhole him!!” Permalink 6:04 PM – 12 Mar 2018