Strength Training is Learning from Tail Events | Medium 11/6/16

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Finally, the body is extremely opaque; it is hard to understand the exact physiological mechanisms. So we would like to make sure our methodology is robust and can stand the judgment of time. We have had theories of how muscles grow; these come and go. We have theories of nutrition; these come and go — the most robust is the one that favors occasional periodic fasts. But we are quite certain that while theories come and go, the phenomenologies stay; in other words, that in two thousand years the method of whole-body workout in the tails will still work, though the interpretation and “scientific” spin will change — just as two thousand five hundred years ago, Milo of Croton carried an ox on his shoulders and got stronger as the ox grew.

Full Post: Strength Training is Learning from Tail Events

Propagandists, Justin Wolfers, FiveThirtyEight, Michiko Kakutani, Nocera, Aleppo, Krugman | Twitter

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@nntaleb The work by scientific entertainer Steven Pinker on violence.https://twitter.com/peterfranklin_/status/796448677380452357   Permalink 12:33 PM – 9 Nov 2016

@mdvex @orestistsinalis @nntaleb in my officepic.twitter.com/pPwsRMcoxH Permalink 9:23 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb There is no “animosity” with Harris. I just consider him an intellectual fraud. @GuzziNba @SamHarrisOrg Permalink 9:21 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I know I saw his papers on forecasting and noticed mathematical probability was not … for him. @HenryMyers7 @JustinWolfers Permalink 8:57 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@themightypuck Something @nntaleb pointed out a year ago.https://twitter.com/conor64/status/796265774440542208   Permalink 8:54 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb That’s @JustinWolfers who should stop teaching economics, just drive an uber outside populated areas.https://twitter.com/carney/status/796390341997920256   Permalink 8:47 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@GuruAnaerobic “Fuck You” vs bought Hilary.pic.twitter.com/fkxXOhWKA5 Permalink 8:06 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The Middle East Institute @MiddleEastInst is funded by the Wahabis. Lister should mention it in every utterance @nadeemhaque @Charles_Lister Permalink 7:48 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Note that people like @Charles_Lister are paid by foreign governments/terrorist sponsors to spread their agendas. Permalink 7:39 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Should we classify propagandists like @Charles_Lister who advocate the interests of al Qaeda/Wahabis as terrorists? Permalink 7:36 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@yaobviously @nntaleb for a long while I thought you overstated your case against intellectuals. I was wrong. Permalink 6:52 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The reason I expected a Trump election would not affect the market is from noticing that ignorant IYI @JustinWolfers made Tump=lower SP. Permalink 6:49 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb How do you forecast an election (cluelessness of @FiveThirtyEight ) PRELIM DRAFT https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/binary%20forecasting%20538.nb.pdf  pic.twitter.com/MdKI0ecrfZ Permalink 6:21 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@EHSANI22 Clearly Americans value a job more than buying a cheap pack of 6 T.shirts made in Bangladesh for $6.99. Kudos to @nntaleb Permalink 4:35 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I forgot the big losers: the neocons. We have at least 4-8 years of watching them drive uber cars / taxis in DC. Permalink 10:09 PM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Who got burried? Saudi Barbaria Goldman Sacks Syrian Jihadis aka “rebels” Academic Economists w/PseudoNobel NYT & other bullshit venues. Permalink 9:59 PM – 8 Nov 2016

@MaxAbrahms What’s the best explanation for why pollsters seem to have failed so badly? To his credit, @nntaleb predicted this orange swan event. Permalink 9:42 PM – 8 Nov 2016

@SadStatueOfLib Just want to point out that @nntaleb has been calling @NateSilver538’s flaws (bullshit) in his models since… hmm, June? Earlier? Permalink 8:36 PM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Time to laugh at “Intellectuals”.https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.x3pmha81c   Permalink 9:25 PM – 8 Nov 2016

@john_f_hamer @nntaleb You’ve arrived, Nassim; you’ve arrived.pic.twitter.com/FX8cUQ997E Permalink 3:05 PM – 8 Nov 2016

@ghchammas 4 cousins in amioun lebanon @nntalebpic.twitter.com/ljAxOjYYkk Permalink 10:48 AM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb An example of forecaster A better than B regardless of finalpic.twitter.com/2zeH1hJ5he Permalink 8:52 AM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Correction: Solent it turned out is not yet out of business. Not yet. @EmanuelDerman @zzbar @motherboard Permalink 7:23 AM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb New edition of Procrustes. No more than 4 aphorisms per day. https://www.amazon.com/Bed-Procrustes-Philosophical-Practical-Aphorisms/dp/0812982401/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=  pic.twitter.com/FErRAAxzFa Permalink 6:37 AM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb We got a great vindication w/ Soylent going out of business. Keep neomania out of food.@EmanuelDerman @zzbar @motherboard Permalink 6:20 AM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Some probability musings from North Lebanon: how to compare forecasters BEFORE final outcome.pic.twitter.com/57ShuNvVVH Permalink 6:02 AM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Any human being who reads anything from @michikokakutani is at war with reason.https://twitter.com/michikokakutani/status/795752769420492800   Permalink 4:09 PM – 7 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Trump is just a symptom not a disease. Message: establishment is so bad that a random Bronx Zoo animal less harmful.pic.twitter.com/xcZLVKFuPs Permalink 3:35 PM – 7 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Levantine for “this”: hayda, haydi,pl. hol. comes frm Syro-Aramaic: hod, hodo. Now hano/hathe in Turoyo @SahinChrispic.twitter.com/WALhu4nJki Permalink 3:08 PM – 7 Nov 2016

@nntaleb John Gray is the real thing.https://twitter.com/orestistsinalis/status/795655586998325248   Permalink 8:23 AM – 7 Nov 2016

@joshua_landis Syrian rebels think it is OK to use civilians as Human Shields but not when Asad or ISIS do it. All powers are guilty when holding civilianshttps://twitter.com/RevolutionSyria/status/792891242581487616   Permalink 2:47 PM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb “Strength Training is Learning from Tail Events” by @nntalebhttps://medium.com/@nntaleb/strength-training-is-learning-from-tail-events-7aa2c074569d?source=twitterShare-f138bf5466fe-1478475236   Permalink 3:34 PM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Nocera, you’re a BS vendor. But everything you do to cover-up your BS vending entails more BS-vending. Keep quiet & non nocere, @NoceraNYT Permalink 11:56 AM – 6 Nov 2016

@RiskMinds “Your grandmother’s intuitions about #tailrisk is usually right”. Don’t miss @nntaleb @ #RiskMinds. More here http://spr.ly/60168EODK  pic.twitter.com/BAX0fIHKdv Permalink 8:00 AM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Version 2 (cleared typos) @CoachRippetoepic.twitter.com/4i9cF0Yj1r Permalink 7:21 AM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Tail risk management & weightlifting? Draft of the forward for a book published by @CoachRippetoe,for comments.pic.twitter.com/XXCtXSCwRO Permalink 6:58 AM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Syriac is Eastern Aramaic (Western Aramaic ~ Jerusalem/Damascus/Maaloula, Western Syriac ~ Nineveh, Eastern Syriac ~ Babylon) @rennyabraham Permalink 6:06 AM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Aramaic du Jour: “kursh”, slang for “belly” in Levantine, is from Accadian: Gilgamesh, Tablet 10, 222.pic.twitter.com/UOOy0K26De Permalink 5:12 AM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Yes, “Boy” as a sign of disrespect. You have a problem with displaying my intellectual (& personal) disrespect for you? @NoceraNYT Permalink 2:46 PM – 5 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Nocera boy, @NoceraNYT, let me debate you on “Aleppo” to show you what “Ignorance” is. You can even use Aramaic, W. Syriac or Syrian Arabic. Permalink 8:35 AM – 5 Nov 2016

@DrJillStein Saudi Arabia: -top Clinton Foundation donor -lobbies US via Podesta group -got record arms deals from Obama/Clinton -top terrorism sponsor Permalink 12:26 PM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb A neat way to transform a Wiener process (\-infty,infty) to election probabilities [0,1].pic.twitter.com/zKzhN6DtZv Permalink 7:57 AM – 5 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Nocera, next time you attend my lecture, remind me to teach you “straw man argument” & intel. dishonesty. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man   @NoceraNYT Permalink 7:15 AM – 5 Nov 2016

@lourou1981 @nntaleb the linguistic map of Syria looks strikingly similar to the sphere of control of diff factions in Syria today. Sheer coincidence? Permalink 5:36 PM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb (actually during the crisis) Permalink 3:20 PM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb With Mandelbrot right before the crisis. Alas, weightlifting makes one gain weight.https://twitter.com/HarriusHaller/status/794662544334057472   Permalink 3:19 PM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb In other words every person should vote according to way he or she expects or prefers others to vote. Be uncompromising with virtue ! Permalink 12:48 PM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb What makes a good election forecaster? Not the Brier metric 538 is a terrible forecaster regardless of final outcomepic.twitter.com/IF39qauxtP Permalink 11:34 AM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2) If Nocera were better read he would have suspected there is such a thing as deontic ethics. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deontological_ethics   @NoceraNYT Permalink 6:06 AM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Better NOT know where Aleppo is than BS about it with half knowledge a la Joe Nocera. IYI Joe Nocera. https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577   @NoceraNYT Permalink 5:26 AM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Dectecting another slip: I said “preferences”. I most probably meant “principles”. Permalink 1:28 PM – 3 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Why my ethics dictate that I vote for the 3rd party regardless of oddshttp://cnb.cx/2eZeyPC   Permalink 1:18 PM – 3 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Even if #GMOs will “feed the world”, you need to look at risks of ruin. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html  https://twitter.com/NonGMOProject/status/794262188349210624   Permalink 12:55 PM – 3 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Spent too much time cleaning the data on Mongolian invasions. Permalink 12:32 PM – 3 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Typo on CNBC: Said 1308 then corrected 1208 and said Attila for Genghis. Permalink 12:12 PM – 3 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Civis romanus sum @BlackWhiteKnite Permalink 8:10 PM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Unlike in static forecasting, the best dynamic forecaster (time) is he who every period forecasts HIS OWN next forecast best. (to continue) Permalink 7:48 PM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb You mean one of these deranged fellows ? @EconMBA @egfalken @IllimitableMan http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/smear.html   Permalink 2:36 PM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Mr Krugman, for economists, to “invoke authority”, well … not a good idea, to put it mildly.https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/793813730454888449   Permalink 7:03 AM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Scam alert: @Fidelity offers a credit card via outside Co, designed to charge late fees+ interest to unsuspecting, similar to Wells Fargo. Permalink 6:13 AM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Levantine du Jour: Ammianus Marcellinus was another Syro-Phoenician Greek. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ammianus_Marcellinus#cite_note-Britannica-1   Permalink 5:25 AM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2) Today someone w/economics degree has a higher chance of sleeping with Kim Kardashian than getting a job as a trader. Finance = STEM Permalink 5:08 AM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Economics is a fake discipline; attempts to improve it (s.a.”behavioral”,”evo”) made it worse! Finance moved to mathematics, accounting,etc. Permalink 5:04 AM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Psychologists are way behind probability/complexity theory in their “normative” definition of rationality.https://twitter.com/SanguineEmpiric/status/793646879485538304   Permalink 4:44 AM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Quite insulting to probability when someone “estimates” noise with precision: 24.8%, not 25 or 24. #cluelesshttps://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/793298019693146113   Permalink 1:29 PM – 1 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2) If you understand nothing about the problem (like DC pundits) then it becomes Iran vs Saudi Arabia, US vs Russia, Mars vs Saturn. Permalink 7:25 AM – 1 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Ignorant pundit (IYIs) see everything w/the magnified prism of geopolitics, not local people trying to make things work. #Lebanon elections Permalink 7:15 AM – 1 Nov 2016

@nntaleb … with HUGE (yuge) practical consequences on model error. @CutTheKnotMath @neilchrisspic.twitter.com/3ezlq1QaSJ Permalink 6:02 AM – 1 Nov 2016

@nntaleb V. counterintuitive useful mathematical result:How higher dimensional areas get SMALLER. @CutTheKnotMath @neilchrisspic.twitter.com/uqGuHzptXx Permalink 5:57 AM – 1 Nov 2016

@nntaleb (what they say about Oxford) Permalink 5:50 PM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb What they call engineering is really physics; what they call physics is math, what they call math nobody knows what it is. @PeterVeep Permalink 5:41 PM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb The conflict: Engineers, applied-probabilists, physicists think in terms of applications; mathematicians view math as art. @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 12:18 PM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb That poor @NateSilver538 still doesn’t get that the possibility of unexpected ↑ variance & moves probabilities→ 50%https://twitter.com/Thesokorus/status/793125893715685377   Permalink 9:34 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb A relevant lesson from Podesta/Huma: bureaucrats & empty suits spend their time in multiplicative/metastatic low information emailing. Permalink 8:24 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Typo. Range for thega [0, \pi] not [0, 2 \pi ]. Varphi in [ 0, 2 pi] Permalink 8:00 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb ἀπὸ μηχανῆς θεός Permalink 7:50 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Fooled by Correlations (cont), a geometric tutorial. Hard to visualize in dimensions >3.pic.twitter.com/6cmW6Krx2r Permalink 7:22 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb La trahison des clercs! The disgusting pseudoleft support for: Saudi Barbaria/Islamofascism Shillary Megacorps https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/trahison_des_clercs   Permalink 6:13 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb You never hear the pseudo-left & neocons say “butcher of Yemen”. Nor alQaeda in Aleppo ever called “butchers”.https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/793063579599577088   Permalink 6:08 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb (From a few months ago) Permalink 9:12 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb My election modelhttps://twitter.com/zzbar/status/792926636098330624   Permalink 8:47 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb The amount of short tails in the system in order to generate returns for retirees is mindbogggggling.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/792890807699247104   Permalink 6:09 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@MaxAbrahms Gary Kasparov is on CNN talking about how Russia wants Trump to win. Who will CNN have talk about how Saudi Arabia wants Hillary to win? Permalink 4:55 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Virtue is what you do when nobody is looking. The rest is marketing. #TheBedofProcrustes (but I can’t remember for sure) Permalink 1:51 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb GMOs advocacy reveals charlatanism, proposing solutions w/unseen side effects; scientism for profit. @philipbstarkpic.twitter.com/vL8Qcw8U7m Permalink 1:24 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Being nice counts the most when you are nice to people ignored by others. Permalink 1:21 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@ggreenwald The savage Saudi/US/UK war on Yemen lacks all the typical propaganda options- we’re bombing for freedom, Bad Dictator, etc- so it’s ignored. Permalink 6:34 AM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Journos & soc. “scientists” fail to detect the difference betw science and scientism.https://twitter.com/dmandl/status/792721099662307328   Permalink 6:35 AM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Ironically the computer allows us to do more abstract math as it does the nitty gritty sh*t work & frees us to see deeper @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 5:59 AM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb We should put ellipticality in our book as higher D fat tails while lower D thin tailed @DrCirillo @financequantpic.twitter.com/JnF0CpvbmS Permalink 5:23 AM – 30 Oct 2016

Randomness of Correlation

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This tutorial presents the intuitions of the randomness of sample correlation (spurious correlation) and the methodologies in derivations.
Some later sections are somewhat technical as rederived an old equation with more precise functions (in order to apply to fat tails) and showed the distribution of the maximum of d variables with n points per variable.
This paves the way to the real scientific work on random matric theory under fat tails and failure of Marchenko-Pastur.
CorrelationDistribution(10/16)
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/CorrelationDistribution.nb.pdf

Psycholophasters, social “science”, Tokyo, Graphical Representation, Shillary, Atheism, Flaneurmobile, Wahhabism, Mossul, Aleppo, Na zdorovie!

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@RussianCarousel An economist is a mixture of 1) a businessman without common sense, 2) a physicist without brain, and 3) a speculator without balls @nntalebhttps://twitter.com/TheBehaviourGuy/status/792430653472202753   Permalink 11:26 AM – 29 Oct 2016

@TheBehaviourGuy @DanielJHannan I would forward anyone who thinks economists matter to @nntalebhttp://read.bi/2eTEXPf   Permalink 11:19 AM – 29 Oct 2016

@nntaleb GMOs: Returnless Risk,case closed. Even NYT admits no ↑yield/↓pesticides. Next preys: +Saudi Barbaria +neocons +Pinkerisms (BS artists) Permalink 10:36 AM – 29 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Incidentally Procopius is one of the 100s of Greek Syrian authors not taught in Syria (Arabism brainwashing). @peterfrankopan @BrankoMilan Permalink 9:25 AM – 29 Oct 2016

@nntaleb the 3 integrals (2 bounds) @CutTheKnotMath Errata: Sn IS the Gen Harmonic Number.pic.twitter.com/28EcPBAJIo Permalink 9:07 AM – 29 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Route 2: comparing to 3 integrals @CutTheKnotMath (On a long plane ride back for Tokyo, your quizzes kill time!)pic.twitter.com/iDR6lTL9MG Permalink 8:27 AM – 29 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Am I cheating somewhere here? @CutTheKnotMathpic.twitter.com/VgEMFQfNGj Permalink 7:39 AM – 29 Oct 2016

@nntaleb I’ve stopped trusting scholarship by most pple on a salary, or deriving bulk of income from it. Scholarship is for the free (“Liberal” arts) Permalink 7:00 AM – 29 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Byzantinism du jour: The Orthodox church allows divorce in order to prevent excessive cases of poisoning. (Justinian code) Permalink 9:37 PM – 28 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Psycholophasters don’t get optionality of p-value. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1603.07532v3.pdf   Plus @DanTGilbert is an imbecile.https://twitter.com/BrianNosek/status/791790886841495552   Permalink 5:07 PM – 27 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Does anyone of Twitter-Byzantinist friends & proto-friends recommend Kazhdan’s book? Eucharist! https://www.amazon.com/Oxford-Dictionary-Byzantium-3-Set/dp/0195046528/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1477606098&sr=8-1&keywords=kazhdan+oxford+dictionary   @byzantinepower Permalink 3:12 PM – 27 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Revival of Greek Identity in Syria: Interview with Operation Antiochhttp://katehon.com/article/revival-greek-identity-syria-interview-operation-antioch   Permalink 2:05 PM – 27 Oct 2016

@nntaleb The more literary version of #DrainTheSwamp or F***you elections is Hercules cleaning the Augean stables. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Augeas  https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/791648893725450240   Permalink 11:59 AM – 27 Oct 2016

@nntaleb People have trouble understanding that sample mean != true mean, as we saw with BS artist Pinker. @DrCirillo @DCosmology Permalink 7:22 AM – 27 Oct 2016

@nntaleb The reasons to shut down social “science”: 1) It is largely BS, 2) Academics firmly believe their job is to *think* for the rest of us. Permalink 7:17 AM – 27 Oct 2016

@tparsi The neocons are salivating… Clinton Adviser: Let’s Attack Iran to Aid Saudis in Yemen http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/10/clinton-adviser-lets-attack-iran-to-aid-saudis-in-yemen.html?mid=twitter-share-di   @mehdirhasan @rezaaslan Permalink 8:45 PM – 26 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Invitation to my #Antifragile lecture tomorrow in Tokyo. So far >3000 rgstrd. #東京国際フォーラム http://bit.ly/2dyNu8P  pic.twitter.com/3vgpUsgW37 Permalink 7:23 PM – 26 Oct 2016

@nntaleb I see people focusing on the task not just the fruit of the task. This is refreshing. (Tokyo) Permalink 3:49 PM – 26 Oct 2016

@nntaleb My brief impression of Japan: life is a sequence of elegantly executed rituals. Permalink 3:40 PM – 26 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Japan: life is a sequence of skillfully executed rituals. Permalink 3:36 PM – 26 Oct 2016

@nntaleb The New Testament was written in the capital of Syria, Antioch, in (bad) Greek. @FullTiltonic Permalink 2:24 PM – 26 Oct 2016

@nntaleb The Beirut school of law kept Latin because Imperial law remained in Latin. @i_contemplate_ @FullTiltonic Permalink 2:13 PM – 26 Oct 2016

@nntaleb People know that most influential Greek city >3rd C was Alexandria… in Egypt. They don’t extend to other cities on the Med. Permalink 2:12 PM – 26 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Beirut was diglossic in the sense that it was the only Eastern city was Latin was used, to the horror of Libanius. @FullTiltonic Permalink 2:06 PM – 26 Oct 2016

@nntaleb 2) Too OBVIOUS:It is practically impossible to physically distinguish an urban Western Syrian (Sunni or Christian) from a Greek. Impossible. Permalink 2:04 PM – 26 Oct 2016

@nntaleb The Levant was diglossic except in coastal cities where it was all Greek. @FullTiltonic Permalink 2:00 PM – 26 Oct 2016

@nntaleb We have 2 stories of Syria, Greco-Roman v/s Arab. Salibi fell for the Arab fabrication. Maps are both preIslamicpic.twitter.com/5vCH62Irv3 Permalink 1:55 PM – 26 Oct 2016

@nntaleb More complete copy explaining steps in red. Full integral is just extra. @CutTheKnotMathpic.twitter.com/JKbbNkECzn Permalink 12:38 PM – 26 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Many are virtuous for lack of opportunity. [Revised] Permalink 7:53 AM – 26 Oct 2016

@nntaleb So many people think of themselves as honest simply because they can’t manage to steal. Permalink 10:50 PM – 25 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Problem: as a probabilist I focus on what’s missing from “evidence”. @DrCirillo & I have started foundations of statistical historiography.https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/790892396892610564   Permalink 3:43 PM – 25 Oct 2016

@nntaleb “If my enemies knew me better, they would hate me even more; If my friends knew me better, they would like me even more” Bed of Procrusteshttps://twitter.com/neelakandan1212/status/791032201752129536   Permalink 2:59 PM – 25 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Do you accept this proof? (On a 14h plane ride to Tokyo) @CutTheKnotMathpic.twitter.com/H7A1AUAd9R Permalink 1:58 PM – 25 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Is it me, or there is something profoundly, profoundly unphilosophical about ranking philosophers?https://twitter.com/davidpapineau/status/790989024785641472   Permalink 1:00 PM – 25 Oct 2016

@nntaleb You are welcome @Scaramuccihttps://twitter.com/scaramucci/status/790982370774118400   Permalink 11:40 AM – 25 Oct 2016

@nntaleb But I got a lot of pple trying to “bully” me: GMO shills, IYIs, Saudi lobbyists, economists & only when I care I bully the sh$t out of them Permalink 9:42 AM – 25 Oct 2016

@nntaleb The very idea of deadlifting is that you don’t feel “bullied” except of course when done by (some) large animals. @CoachRippetoehttps://twitter.com/scottadamssays/status/790948569293336577   Permalink 9:22 AM – 25 Oct 2016

@nntaleb .@Barkinka1 You need to 1) read Arabic script, 2) understand old Turkish. The intersection is very very rare. Permalink 8:38 AM – 25 Oct 2016

@nntaleb The Turks have wonderful archives nobody can read because in Arabic script. Some in Syriac script. @trscbrs @peterfrankopan Permalink 8:22 AM – 25 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Bingo! Arab is called Tayyaye (Tayyoyo), apparently from Bani Tayy, or Tayyoun or Tyan or closer to Babylon: Sarqaya! @BlackWhiteKnite Permalink 8:21 AM – 25 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Kamal Salibi is an amateur at best, blinded by protestant-fueled Arab nationalism @GhassanDahhan @peterfrankopanpic.twitter.com/Mr39wnA6sL Permalink 8:14 AM – 25 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Aramaic du jour. Quiz: what is the designation for Arab (i.e. from Arab tribes) in Syriac? Permalink 8:00 AM – 25 Oct 2016

@nntaleb The minority rule in action. Money tawks and BS walks https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.vmhfiqpww  https://twitter.com/GMWatch/status/790922366989643777   Permalink 7:27 AM – 25 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Because when you put historical fabrications on social media, you are bound to account for it. @Abunass3r @GhassanDahhan @peterfrankopan Permalink 7:24 AM – 25 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Gaps: historians tend to mistake absence of evidence for evidence of absence. Historiographical approach in The Black Swan @peterfrankopan Permalink 5:47 AM – 25 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Tempted to write a Brief History of Syria using Aramaic/Greek/Armenian/Persian/Turkic sources instead of Arab propaganda. @peterfrankopan Permalink 5:26 AM – 25 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Fat Tonys do not debate Dr Johns. When they do, they do it for entertainment, not to win. They prefer the moneyhttps://twitter.com/marcushewitson/status/790876747608707072   Permalink 4:28 AM – 25 Oct 2016

@nntaleb The @EmanuelDerman approach visualized. The combination lies inside the sphere @financequant @CutTheKnotMathpic.twitter.com/aURW4SKFaB Permalink 12:10 PM – 24 Oct 2016

@nntaleb While US & Russia bicker over bones, China is slowly swallowing the Pacific. Just as in 1208->1230s before Ghengis.https://twitter.com/GennadySimanovs/status/790625087359778818   Permalink 11:50 AM – 24 Oct 2016

@nntaleb .@financequant @EmanuelDerman @CutTheKnotMath 4) What makes math unique & diverse is that approaches are *duals* to one another. Permalink 11:40 AM – 24 Oct 2016

@nntaleb With some geometry @CutTheKnotMathpic.twitter.com/VC12s2bpnz Permalink 10:10 AM – 24 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Real World Risk Certificate, 4th class, Feb 6-10 2017 RWRI-4 http://www.realworldrisk.com   Permalink 9:11 AM – 24 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Resting is valuable only if you are resting *from* something. Permalink 7:49 AM – 24 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Finally, as we converge to equality from below @CutTheKnotMathpic.twitter.com/Fg3m8uOiui Permalink 7:02 AM – 24 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Graphical representation: ridge a=b for different values of c. Can’t get a clean RegionPlot3D. @CutTheKnotMathpic.twitter.com/Vo5RYHRPvS Permalink 6:53 AM – 24 Oct 2016

@nntaleb My kind of response (except more polite). Journalism is the last refuge of the rejects of the information age.https://twitter.com/MilenaRodban/status/790538546184544256   Permalink 6:06 AM – 24 Oct 2016

@nntaleb 3) So all you got is failed scholars with Ivy League degrees living hand to mouth. @faysalitani @MiddleEastInst @nabihbulos @Charles_Lister Permalink 5:08 AM – 24 Oct 2016

@nntaleb 2) I never ran into a smart person whose ambition was to become a propagandist. @faysalitani @MiddleEastInst @nabihbulos @Charles_Lister Permalink 5:03 AM – 24 Oct 2016

@nntaleb 1) At the risk of being offensive, Mr Itani, pbm w/shills is lack of intelligence. @faysalitani @MiddleEastInst @nabihbulos @Charles_Lister Permalink 5:02 AM – 24 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Mr Itani, you think we do not know about the EXACT sources of funds of @MiddleEastInst ? @faysalitani @nabihbulos @Charles_Lister @EHSANI22 Permalink 4:56 AM – 24 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Something strange with correlation distributions under fat tails; althought they don’t technically “exist”:pic.twitter.com/MTBZssPo9H Permalink 4:01 PM – 23 Oct 2016

@nntaleb No leftist should EVER consider Shillary, warmonger, cronyist, corrupt, shill. Pick any other candidate, to taste.https://twitter.com/maxbsawicky/status/790293484204920832   Permalink 1:50 PM – 23 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Force @TheEconomist to live in Syria under an ISIS regime. Add to that the pseudoleftists who support Shillary.https://twitter.com/OnatMansur/status/790280073148522497   Permalink 1:38 PM – 23 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Foretaste: thanks to pseudoleftist IYIs, neighborhoods in Paris, Brussels & London will be modelled after E Aleppo.https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/790239391276994560   Permalink 12:36 PM – 23 Oct 2016

@nntaleb The Nobel itself is impolite, arrogant, arbitrary, hierarchical… It is not arrogant to ignore unsollicited calls.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/music/news/nobel-academy-member-calls–bob-dylan-impolite-and-arrogant/   Permalink 5:58 AM – 23 Oct 2016

@nntaleb This BS picture was retweeted >11k. Yet the picture was made in 2013 in Dubai.https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/789852854227984384   Permalink 4:16 AM – 23 Oct 2016

@nntaleb It is neither cheap nor easy. It is called conflict of interest & @Charles_Lister is a prostitute. @faysalitani @EHSANI22 @MiddleEastInst Permalink 1:00 PM – 22 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Fooled by Correlations, a MiniMooc tutorial.https://youtu.be/yUooqL47akM   Permalink 6:50 AM – 22 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Atheism is not part of Paganism. Atheism is an extreme version of Protestantism.https://twitter.com/ektrit/status/789774672091029504   Permalink 4:38 AM – 22 Oct 2016

@GhassanDahhan Compare the coverage of Mosul and East Aleppo and it tells you a lot about the propaganda we consumehttp://www.independent.co.uk/voices/iraq-syria-aleppo-mosul-patrick-cockburn-propaganda-we-consume-a7373951.html   Permalink 2:19 AM – 22 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Truth is in the extremes. There is no noise in the far tails. Permalink 5:12 PM – 21 Oct 2016

@nntaleb In flaneurmobile with coach Rippetoe; he promised a one rep max of 500 lbs within 1-2 years.pic.twitter.com/LXHQezPN1q Permalink 5:45 AM – 21 Oct 2016

@nntaleb I do presses. No bench. @debabyatskiy @chaslutz @CoachRippetoe Permalink 12:18 PM – 20 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Squid Ink … Got @CoachRippetoe addicted!pic.twitter.com/LeGwlOq0U7 Permalink 12:17 PM – 20 Oct 2016

@nntaleb With @CoachRippetoe in New York heating to the squid ink place.pic.twitter.com/kM9BCvBeI0 Permalink 9:51 AM – 20 Oct 2016

@nntaleb in·tel·lec·tu·alˌ in(t)əˈlek(t)SH(əw)əl/ noun: intellectual 1.an idiot deprived of clarity of mind trying to hide it under complication. Permalink 6:30 AM – 20 Oct 2016

@nntaleb For the list of typical IYI you,@dandrezner, weren’t suggested. Is it because you carry no influence? [Watch Drezner’s frenetic responses] Permalink 5:24 AM – 20 Oct 2016

@nntaleb You can expect in return to see Germany supporting the Syrian “rebels”.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/789075781762834432   Permalink 5:15 AM – 20 Oct 2016

@nntaleb If math-economics has failed, it isn’tn because math failed; since Samuelson social science has been bullshitting us with the WRONG math. Permalink 5:02 AM – 20 Oct 2016

@nntaleb …another example of complication without rigor busted with higher math. Economists’ GMM is dressed up BS. @NessimAitKacimi Permalink 4:58 AM – 20 Oct 2016

@nntaleb I agree with results but this is TOTAL statistical BS: method of moments fails under fat tails. @NessimAitKacimipic.twitter.com/oUNtqcsG3S Permalink 4:50 AM – 20 Oct 2016

@nntaleb We cherish bards like Bob Dylan for the combination of depth and simplicity in comparison to intellectuals both shallow and complicated. Permalink 5:26 PM – 19 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Sounds familiar! @nichnachnoch @peterfrankopanpic.twitter.com/VBTknzCKCN Permalink 3:52 PM – 19 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Put these investors through psychiatric evaluation. Except that they are not investing their OWN money. SITG.https://twitter.com/mhmalek/status/788868445349838848   Permalink 3:31 PM – 19 Oct 2016

@nntaleb The US supported “rebels” are not allowing civilians to exit E #Aleppo. We get different stories talking to locals!https://twitter.com/EHSANI22/status/788789130109001728   Permalink 3:07 PM – 19 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Total BS. Who are they fooling? Blame Wahhabism for terrorism.https://twitter.com/Confusezeus/status/788779801838514176   Permalink 9:40 AM – 19 Oct 2016

@nntaleb For happiness, avoid social life w/ those who place others in a hierarchy, across activities: “best writer”, “best plumber”, “richest”, etc. Permalink 5:16 AM – 19 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Voila! Young Bob Dylan calling out a journo for his BS profession. Bob Dylan Interview with Time Magazinehttps://youtu.be/mnl5X5MQKTg   Permalink 4:13 AM – 19 Oct 2016

@nntaleb The allies did break up Germany into small statelings. It worked. https://twitter.com/otootsmcgroots/status/788685646470733824   Permalink 3:36 AM – 19 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Federations like pre-WWII US don’t like wars. @hrishio @dav33241 Permalink 3:29 AM – 19 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Italy, in 500 years of city states had many many tiny wars and tiny casualties. Post unification, WW1: 680,000 killed. @dav33241 Permalink 3:22 AM – 19 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Next week in Tokyo, invitaion to my lecture http://hsiftokyo.hitachi/invitation/hsif2016_invitation_en_001.pdf   Permalink 3:20 AM – 19 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Centralized systems make wars inevitable.https://twitter.com/spectator/status/788665513266257920   Permalink 3:15 AM – 19 Oct 2016

@nntaleb This adds to @yaneerbaryam ‘s argument.https://twitter.com/plektix/status/788470570669207552   Permalink 2:23 PM – 18 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Did Trump read the MS Skin-in-the-game? Trump to propose 5y lobbying ban on executive branch officials http://reut.rs/2ep5MIl   via @Reuters Permalink 1:27 PM – 18 Oct 2016

@nntaleb So finance people are free to follow, but they should stay quiet. @LadyFOHF Permalink 7:03 AM – 18 Oct 2016

@nntaleb I block financiaphasters who put my handle, such as @LadyFOHF & friends just to escape the vulgarity of financiaphasters. Permalink 7:01 AM – 18 Oct 2016

@nntaleb The extended version #Nobel and the sanctified aspect of literature.pic.twitter.com/FkSAqyG9Mz Permalink 6:52 AM – 18 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Don’t look for pleasure in convents, love in bordellos,intellect on campuses, wisdom in senates,nobility in law firms, & literature in Vegas Permalink 6:14 AM – 18 Oct 2016

@nntaleb I never ax Fat Tony for aesthetic advice @d_ramsden Permalink 6:07 AM – 18 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Finito: Fooled by the Randomness of Correlation! https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/CorrelationDistribution.nb.pdf  pic.twitter.com/vpg0flgywE Permalink 4:22 AM – 18 Oct 2016

@nntaleb 5/What is bothering me isn’t Dylan, but exalting as “Literature” somthng highly commercial performed in Vegas! As if books with ads in them! Permalink 3:26 AM – 18 Oct 2016

@DrCirillo How can we characterize tail risk in loss distributions? Can inequality measures help? Comments are very welcome. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2850949   Permalink 2:44 AM – 17 Oct 2016

@nntaleb 2- So they were nonSemitic tribes from North who took the Accadian language. Look at Assyrians, Ezidis, Kurds: similarities. Permalink 2:24 AM – 18 Oct 2016

@nntaleb 1-Specultn du Jour: Mossul (Nineveh)≉pop frm Babylon wch they conquered,Assyrians more (to this day) Euro/Mediterranean looking than Iraqis. Permalink 2:23 AM – 18 Oct 2016

@nntaleb The Jihadi rebels (Saudi financed) are ALSO bombing Aleppo. Why is it that the media in 2016 is worse than 1516?https://twitter.com/nfergus/status/788106138797694976   Permalink 4:59 PM – 17 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Thank you twitter. Other than a few personal friends/acquaintances, I am followed by NO journalist, NO economist, & no psycholophaster. Permalink 2:30 PM – 17 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Skin in the game.https://twitter.com/a_lesniewski/status/788125778076692480   Permalink 2:23 PM – 17 Oct 2016

@nntaleb My enemies are vastly more predictable than my friends. Permalink 1:50 PM – 17 Oct 2016

@nntaleb My respect goes to Bob Dylan.https://www.theguardian.com/music/2016/oct/17/nobel-prize-bob-dylan-unable-to-reach?CMP=share_btn_tw   Permalink 12:18 PM – 17 Oct 2016

@nntaleb I cannot believe that the US is siding with AlQaeda in Syria just to spite Russia. I just cannot.https://twitter.com/RonPaulInstitut/status/788083699485204480   Permalink 11:34 AM – 17 Oct 2016

@nntaleb There is a neuroscience of why people believe bullshit like this as science when it has “neuro” in it. Really.https://twitter.com/thescienceofus/status/788059882691895296   Permalink 10:06 AM – 17 Oct 2016

@nntaleb 5) Worse than p-values. Academics tend to severely misunderstand correlation. The most used statistical metric!pic.twitter.com/t8xCHUrNo1 Permalink 9:09 AM – 17 Oct 2016

@nntaleb 1) Define castrati. 2) How do they overlap with IYI? @GadSaadhttps://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.dl2xbnojw   Permalink 8:03 AM – 17 Oct 2016

@nntaleb And flow of funds ro lobbyists in DChttps://twitter.com/newsweekme/status/787979470124773376   Permalink 6:46 AM – 17 Oct 2016

@Shaunaob Looking forward to #kilkenomics More events added @kilkenomics @davidmcw @nntaleb @stephenkinsella @GuerillaEcon #kilkenny @LiamHalliganpic.twitter.com/8h2z5Iesch Permalink 5:31 AM – 17 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Randomness in correlation: Extracting the exact bias from “data hacking” for d variables with n points per variable.pic.twitter.com/LgewzHuN5u Permalink 5:00 AM – 17 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Emanuel, the Podesta fraud has been caught/humiliated so he is trying to win argument with “best revenge is to live well”.@EmanuelDerman Permalink 3:08 PM – 16 Oct 2016

@nntaleb An excellent book!https://twitter.com/drjasonfung/status/787723289183608832   Permalink 11:49 AM – 16 Oct 2016

@byzantinepower Always the Lebanese isn’t it? Dismantling our finest propaganda…https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/787716493110808576   Permalink 11:35 AM – 16 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Randomness in correlations. An exact derivation for n small. Started in a Moscow café and completed on plane back.pic.twitter.com/cQdWUHrkxB Permalink 10:59 AM – 16 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Mr @johnpodesta, honorable pple would rather starve than eat lobster risotto paid w/ shilling/lobbying immoral fundshttps://twitter.com/johnpodesta/status/786988264985100288   Permalink 9:34 AM – 16 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Some realizations are delayed, particularly when they entail denial. They don’t go away. #SaudiBarbaria et al.https://twitter.com/maxabrahms/status/787355884880007169   Permalink 11:47 PM – 15 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Russia is a place where doing mathematics in a café in a central district is very, very normal.pic.twitter.com/JYVzgl1vTz Permalink 1:47 PM – 15 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Some Russian historians are revising some accounts of his temperamental reactions… shaky sources. @ramsay_randall Permalink 1:13 PM – 15 Oct 2016

@nntaleb The Boyars write history. Common folks plow the fields. @Bernd__Neuner Permalink 1:10 PM – 15 Oct 2016

@nntaleb I wonder if Shillary Clinton/MSM/SaudiLobbyists did not do a smear campaign against Ivan the Terrible. “Terrible?” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivan_the_Terrible_in_Russian_folklore   Permalink 1:04 PM – 15 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Heuristic: never trust someone’s historical analogies if (as is common with policymakers) his historical knowledge starts in 1934. Permalink 7:48 AM – 15 Oct 2016

@nntaleb School destroys the aura and appeal of real literature.https://twitter.com/stan_yurin/status/786834419097210880   Permalink 1:11 AM – 15 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Na zdorovie!pic.twitter.com/EF2Ra87prX Permalink 12:41 PM – 14 Oct 2016

@LegInsurrection .@washingtonpost WH bureau chief @eilperin tips off Podesta abt upcoming story — this is y ppl don’t trust media https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails/emailid/9149  pic.twitter.com/a1jColKu5e Permalink 7:55 AM – 14 Oct 2016

@nntaleb In Moscow nobody (in lit circles) knows Dostoyeski’s Crocodile in which he shows the absurdity of ppls of economics!pic.twitter.com/6jHFN5CirV Permalink 4:09 PM – 13 Oct 2016

@nntaleb 4/ Literature, so far, is the only intellectual discipline that escaped academia. Don’t let the pol-correct profs debase it! #NobelDylan Permalink 12:09 PM – 13 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Why on earth should you pay attention to a prize that was never granted to JL Borges, but given to Bob Dylan? Permalink 7:25 AM – 13 Oct 2016

@nntaleb That you like Bob Dylan’s songs &listen to them while driving to work doesn’t make them literature. Literature is something deeper. Kapish? Permalink 7:21 AM – 13 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Would you be surprised if Kim Kardashian won a Nobel Prize “for bringing mundane concepts into public discussions?” Permalink 7:13 AM – 13 Oct 2016

@nntaleb As expected idiotic lobbyists managed to butcher the Black Swan idea. @zerohedgepic.twitter.com/fLul5rB5dR Permalink 6:59 AM – 13 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Prizes are so absurd they end up debasing themselves, like currencies. -Bob Dylan -Barak Obama -Economistshttps://twitter.com/NobelPrize/status/786522083111030784   Permalink 6:13 AM – 13 Oct 2016

@SenWarren A bank CEO should not be able to oversee a massive fraud & simply walk away to enjoy his millions in retirement. Permalink 4:13 PM – 12 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Skin in the game!https://twitter.com/TheNostromoDos/status/786295846400733184   Permalink 4:14 PM – 12 Oct 2016

@nntaleb In his response,@FiveThirtyEight, proved he really did not understand 1)probability, 2)time series,3)how to respond.https://twitter.com/jasonawe83/status/785857965345701888   Permalink 8:34 AM – 11 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Best tasting sandwiches, with Ukrainian tomatoes & bread, before I devoured the whole plate. @cdipaola62pic.twitter.com/sOjzR3nYEA Permalink 5:03 AM – 11 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Voila. Saudi Barbaria’s cover aid to Jihadis.https://twitter.com/ghassandahhan/status/785786864628211712   Permalink 5:00 AM – 11 Oct 2016

@nntaleb On my way to Moscow (for, among other things, drinking) via Minsk as one can’t fly to Russia from The Ukraine. Permalink 1:53 AM – 11 Oct 2016

@nntaleb What @peterfrankopan reveals is something few realized before owing to overestimation of Mongolian wars: was followed by a Pax Mongoliana! Permalink 7:16 AM – 10 Oct 2016

@nntaleb All day seminar lekchur in Kyiv.pic.twitter.com/ZjSqnG4GKY Permalink 3:01 AM – 10 Oct 2016