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Category Archives: Facebook

Everyone Worries Too Much About ‘Black Swans’

Relax. They really are pretty rare. In other words, Taleb might be wrong — people might be overestimating, rather than underestimating, the risk of market crashes. Some recent survey evidence indicates that this might be true. William Goetzmann, Dasol Kim and the Nobel-winning economist Robert Shiller looked at 26 years of survey data, and found […]

P-Values, Growth | Facebook

For those interested in p-values, a short (very technical) paper and a video commentary. I was able to pull out the exact meta-distribution of p-values (i.e. p-values as random variables). The point is that the same phenomenon will produce p-values all over the map, A true p-value of .12 will produce p-values <.05 more than […]

SOUL IN THE GAME, Real World Risk, Rebellion, Voting to Destroy the Establishment | Facebook

Reader: “Dear N., I have read all your books and have a question. How do you recommend an average young man navigate the modern world? “. Me: “Never ask a vague question“. (3/13/16) —————- SOUL IN THE GAME & THE RISE OF PROTECTIONISM The rise of protectionism may have a strong rationale. One fundamental flaw […]

Violence Under Fat Tails, Enemies of the Good, Real World Risk, Umberto Eco | Facebook

We finally summarized both our violence paper and our methodology for “Fooled by Randomness” under fat tails. We explain in the simplest possible terms what is noise and what is “significant” and why journos such as Pinker are fooled by “drops in violence”. (3/2/16) The file is at: Background: one economist, Michael Spagat, commented […]

One Bank, The Clinton System, Erudition, Minority Rule, SITG | Facebook

My Bank of England Seminar will be webcast.…/…/seminars/180216.aspx PDF of slides (temporary)…/BoE2016.pptx-show.pdf One Bank Flagship Seminar by Nassim Nicholas Taleb – Tail Risk Measurement Heuristics | Bank of… Date: Thursday 18 February 2016Time: 4.15-6pmVenue: Moorgate Auditorium, 20… ———- Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison and husband (sort of) Bill Clinton represent the reverse skin of the game, […]