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Tag Archives: Lindy effect


THE ETHICS OF DEBATING. You can attack what a person *said* or what the person *meant*. The former is more sensational. The mark of a charlatan (say the journalist Sam Harris) is to defend his position or attack a critic by focusing on *some* of his/her specific statement (“look at what he said”) rather than […]

A conjecture. Any “discovery” in the “soft” sciences…

A conjecture. Any “discovery” in the “soft” sciences related to human nature that is not wrong should be found in the ancients, and, if not there, it would be wrong. —- For ease of access these get recycled in Montaigne (who was a popularizer of people who wrote 1500 y earlier), better, the vastly more […]


LINDY FOR THE DETECTION of MODERN BULLSHIT. It is a (sort of) truism that we make the mistake of thinking of the past in terms entire made in the present, making the mistake of propagating backwards such notions as “religion”, “values”, “Gods”, “success”, “happiness”, “ambition”, “meaning of life”, and attribute it to motives of action, […]

An improvement of the LINDY EFFECT…

An improvement of the LINDY EFFECT: We can sort of measure of conditional antifragility by looking at what went down and bounced back. Things that survive provide information; but things that bounced back from severe hardship provide even more information under some conditions of homogeneity. You are as good as the worst adversity you encountered […]

Why we will be using email for at least another 50 years — GigaOM Pro

So, applying Taleb’s reasoning and Benoit Mandelbrot’s version of the Lindy effect, our modern social technologies — most of which haven’t been with us more than five years — can be guaranteed to be with us only an addition five years or so. And those pre- or proto-social technologies — like instant messaging and email […]