Category Archives: John

RIMS 2010 Annual Conference & Exhibition – Education & Training – Claims Magazine

NNT will be a keynote speaker at this event.

Contingent commissions, climate change, crisis management, global risk, and pending legislation — dubbed the “Shareholder Bill of Rights” — will be just a few of the many topics covered at the Risk and Insurance Management Society’s 2010 annual conference and exhibition, which takes place April 25-29 at the Boston Convention and Exhibition Center.

Each year, RIMS attracts thousands of risk and insurance professionals at all experience levels by offering more than 120 sessions that cover critical risk management issues. In addition, the five-day event offers keynote presentations, special events, and an exhibit hall with more than 400 exhibitors.

Hay Festival – Nassim Nicholas Taleb

NNT will be speaking at the Hay Festival in Wales.
http://www.hayfestival.com/wales/index.aspx
HatTip to Dave Lull

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Event 63Saturday 29 May 2010, 5.30pm
Venue: Oxfam Studio

Black Swan Revisited

The writer extends his elegant and radical thinking beyond economics to climate change and medicine and what to do in a world we don’t understand.
Price: £6.00

 

Daniel Kahneman – A Bat and a Ball Cost $1.10

Daniel KahnemanRIP Danny. Thank you for your insights and stories. I’m glad of the opportunity to know your work. You made a difference.

[Update 9/8/2010 A paper Danny co-authored, “Income’s Influence on Happiness” has just been released.]

… the bat costs $1 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost? Daniel Kahneman KNOWS that the first thought that entered your head was $.10–even if you’re a Computer Science major at MIT. But that’s the wrong answer.

Daniel Gilbert’s “Stumbling On Happiness” led me to Nicholas Taleb’s “Fooled By Randomness“. Both books cite the work of Danny Kahneman. I blogged a bit about him here. I have been rummaging around the internet looking for whatever I can find on Danny and his work and have come up with some excellent content. But let me give you a taste of the sort of fascinating facts you’ll hear in Danny’s lectures first.

In a study Danny (I don’t know him personally but after listening to all these lectures, I feel as though I do. He could no doubt name the cognitive bias this suggests) mentions in one of his talks, people are asked how much pleasure they derive from their car. They are then asked enough questions about the car to determine its blue book (resale) value. It turns out that there IS a correlation between the amount of pleasure the subject reported and the dollar value of the car. i.e. Yes, that late model BMW in the garage DOES give you more pleasure than my 20 year old Honda would. BUT! They then go on to ask the subject if they find their commute to work pleasurable, and guess what?– nobody does!. It turns out that the ONLY time people derive pleasure from their car is when they are THINKING about it.

From Wikipedia:
With Amos Tversky (Kahneman’s longtime research partner, with whom he would have shared the Nobel prize had Tversky not died in 1996) and others, Kahneman established a cognitive basis for common human errors using heuristics and biases (Kahneman & Tversky, 1973, Kahneman, Slovic & Tversky, 1982), and developed Prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). He was awarded the 2002 the Nobel Prize in Economics for his work in Prospect theory.

Major Contributions:

  • anchoring and adjustment -describes the common human tendency to rely too heavily, or “anchor,” on one trait or piece of information when making decisions.
  • availability heuristic -where people base their prediction of the frequency of an event or the proportion within a population based on how easily an example can be brought to mind.
  • conjunction fallacy -when it is assumed that specific conditions are more probable than a general condition that contains the specific condition. (i.e. You think you’re MORE likely to die in an air disaster brought on by a terrorist event, than you are to die in ANY kind of air disaster).
  • framing (economics) -reversals of preference when the same problem is presented in different ways. (10% fat vs. 90% fat-free!)
  • loss aversion -the tendency for people strongly to prefer avoiding losses than acquiring gains. (Why New Yorkers stay in New York for the culture, and Angelenos stay in LA for the weather!!).
  • peak-end rule – we judge our past experiences almost entirely on how they were at their peak (pleasant or unpleasant) and how they ended.
  • prospect theory -how people make choices in situations where they have to decide between alternatives that involve risk.
  • reference class forecasting -predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions.
  • simulation heuristic – people determine the likelihood of an event based on how easy it is to picture mentally. (Why we buy lottery tickets.)
  • status quo bias -in other words, people like things to stay relatively the same.

Media – Most of these lectures have a fairly long-winded intro. Skip ahead if you don’t need the background info.

Explorations of the Mind – Well-Being: Living and Thinking About It. (YouTube)

Conversation With History – Intuition and Rationality. (YouTube)

Conversation With History – Intuition and Rationality. (Audio)

Explorations of the Mind – Intuition: The Marvels and the Flaws. (YouTube)

Nobel Prize Lecture. (YouTube)

Update March 2009- Kahneman and Taleb on the same stage discus the crash. (YouTube)

Update March 2010. From the February 2010, Ted Talk Daniel Kahneman: The riddle of experience vs. memory. (YouTube)

Found a few more DK links.
A Perspective on Judgment and Choice 24pg. PDF doc. on the subject of his Nobel Prize.
The Allais Paradox Wired magazine 10/10 (Archive)

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In Search of the Writer-Philosopher: N.N. Taleb « David L.

Shared by JohnH
David attended the recent Hard Problems symposium. His account does read a little bit like a scene in a movie. Check out the full post at the link above.

Taleb decried Academia, and Finance, the two being intimately connected. The former he rebuked because it was teaching all of the wrong things in the vulgar act of moneymaking—business; the latter for obvious reasons, being the locus of the recession. The Academics in the panel didn’t want to hear it; they wanted Academia and their methods of teaching to be exalted and not to be associated with vulgar finance.

Of course, there were some economist or would be economist in the audience. Indeed, when Taleb denounce VaR and the methods used in Finance, I noticed some young turks shaking their heads, I could hear them thinking: I mean, Harvard couldn’t be teaching us methods that don’t work, this is the epitome of knowledge, Taleb must be wrong and Harvard Business School right. However, these kids should be learning the scientific method: if your models, theories, tools, don’t work admit your wrong and change them. Alas, admitting you are wrong is so much difficult and it takes courage.

The panelist answer questions in long winded narratives; I was seeing Taleb’s indignation increased because non of the questions address his problem. Time was running out; and some last minute swipes at Taleb over the merit of the Noble Peace Price; the tension was palpable. Time is up, five a clock, Taleb walks out of the auditorium. I thought: here he is trying to promote his ideas, here he is in the suppose epitome of knowledge: Harvard University, here he is!– and far too many of the seats are empty. Most of the people were outside enjoying the wonderful sunny weather.

I am still kicking myself for not asking my question in public, but I wanted an answer, nonetheless. So I figure Taleb must be somewhere in the building. I grabbed my stuff and walkout into the main lounge nonchalantly. I saw him walking towards the auditorium.

“ Mr. Taleb I have a question?” trying to walk along with him.
He grumble.

“Mr. Taleb do you think we should Nationalist the Banks?” Trying to speedily read my question and trying to sound proper.

“No, let the banks destroy themselves.” he said grumbly, And I stopped and saw him walk into the auditorium.

Of course, from reading his books, I know he has a sense of humor and he had just come out of a very intense, emotional, meeting; thus, I didn’t take his answer seriously—and we shouldn’t.

I went back to brew myself a drink; a minute later, he was walking fast ready to make his escape from this suffocating place. I looked at his face and said  “have a good evening” he smiled at me and went his own way. With that he made a convert of me.

The Black Swan – Second Edition Now Shipping!

Black Swan Second Edition

This title was released on May 11, 2010. Order Here.

I’m on my third reading, not to mention having listened to the audio book twice, so I wasn’t sure
about getting the second edition. But in his Hard Problems talk,  NNT mentions having
become obsessed with robustness, and that accounting for the additional 100 pages…  Sold!
It will be nice to start with a fresh copy, mine is a little worn with all the highlighter, notes,
bent pages, cracked spine etc.