@nntaleb The work by scientific entertainer Steven Pinker on violence.https://twitter.com/peterfranklin_/status/796448677380452357   Permalink 12:33 PM – 9 Nov 2016

@mdvex @orestistsinalis @nntaleb in my officepic.twitter.com/pPwsRMcoxH Permalink 9:23 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb There is no “animosity” with Harris. I just consider him an intellectual fraud. @GuzziNba @SamHarrisOrg Permalink 9:21 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I know I saw his papers on forecasting and noticed mathematical probability was not … for him. @HenryMyers7 @JustinWolfers Permalink 8:57 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@themightypuck Something @nntaleb pointed out a year ago.https://twitter.com/conor64/status/796265774440542208   Permalink 8:54 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb That’s @JustinWolfers who should stop teaching economics, just drive an uber outside populated areas.https://twitter.com/carney/status/796390341997920256   Permalink 8:47 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@GuruAnaerobic “Fuck You” vs bought Hilary.pic.twitter.com/fkxXOhWKA5 Permalink 8:06 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The Middle East Institute @MiddleEastInst is funded by the Wahabis. Lister should mention it in every utterance @nadeemhaque @Charles_Lister Permalink 7:48 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Note that people like @Charles_Lister are paid by foreign governments/terrorist sponsors to spread their agendas. Permalink 7:39 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Should we classify propagandists like @Charles_Lister who advocate the interests of al Qaeda/Wahabis as terrorists? Permalink 7:36 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@yaobviously @nntaleb for a long while I thought you overstated your case against intellectuals. I was wrong. Permalink 6:52 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb The reason I expected a Trump election would not affect the market is from noticing that ignorant IYI @JustinWolfers made Tump=lower SP. Permalink 6:49 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb How do you forecast an election (cluelessness of @FiveThirtyEight ) PRELIM DRAFT https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/binary%20forecasting%20538.nb.pdf  pic.twitter.com/MdKI0ecrfZ Permalink 6:21 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@EHSANI22 Clearly Americans value a job more than buying a cheap pack of 6 T.shirts made in Bangladesh for $6.99. Kudos to @nntaleb Permalink 4:35 AM – 9 Nov 2016

@nntaleb I forgot the big losers: the neocons. We have at least 4-8 years of watching them drive uber cars / taxis in DC. Permalink 10:09 PM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Who got burried? Saudi Barbaria Goldman Sacks Syrian Jihadis aka “rebels” Academic Economists w/PseudoNobel NYT & other bullshit venues. Permalink 9:59 PM – 8 Nov 2016

@MaxAbrahms What’s the best explanation for why pollsters seem to have failed so badly? To his credit, @nntaleb predicted this orange swan event. Permalink 9:42 PM – 8 Nov 2016

@SadStatueOfLib Just want to point out that @nntaleb has been calling @NateSilver538’s flaws (bullshit) in his models since… hmm, June? Earlier? Permalink 8:36 PM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Time to laugh at “Intellectuals”.https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.x3pmha81c   Permalink 9:25 PM – 8 Nov 2016

@john_f_hamer @nntaleb You’ve arrived, Nassim; you’ve arrived.pic.twitter.com/FX8cUQ997E Permalink 3:05 PM – 8 Nov 2016

@ghchammas 4 cousins in amioun lebanon @nntalebpic.twitter.com/ljAxOjYYkk Permalink 10:48 AM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb An example of forecaster A better than B regardless of finalpic.twitter.com/2zeH1hJ5he Permalink 8:52 AM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Correction: Solent it turned out is not yet out of business. Not yet. @EmanuelDerman @zzbar @motherboard Permalink 7:23 AM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb New edition of Procrustes. No more than 4 aphorisms per day. https://www.amazon.com/Bed-Procrustes-Philosophical-Practical-Aphorisms/dp/0812982401/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr=  pic.twitter.com/FErRAAxzFa Permalink 6:37 AM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb We got a great vindication w/ Soylent going out of business. Keep neomania out of food.@EmanuelDerman @zzbar @motherboard Permalink 6:20 AM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Some probability musings from North Lebanon: how to compare forecasters BEFORE final outcome.pic.twitter.com/57ShuNvVVH Permalink 6:02 AM – 8 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Any human being who reads anything from @michikokakutani is at war with reason.https://twitter.com/michikokakutani/status/795752769420492800   Permalink 4:09 PM – 7 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Trump is just a symptom not a disease. Message: establishment is so bad that a random Bronx Zoo animal less harmful.pic.twitter.com/xcZLVKFuPs Permalink 3:35 PM – 7 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Levantine for “this”: hayda, haydi,pl. hol. comes frm Syro-Aramaic: hod, hodo. Now hano/hathe in Turoyo @SahinChrispic.twitter.com/WALhu4nJki Permalink 3:08 PM – 7 Nov 2016

@nntaleb John Gray is the real thing.https://twitter.com/orestistsinalis/status/795655586998325248   Permalink 8:23 AM – 7 Nov 2016

@joshua_landis Syrian rebels think it is OK to use civilians as Human Shields but not when Asad or ISIS do it. All powers are guilty when holding civilianshttps://twitter.com/RevolutionSyria/status/792891242581487616   Permalink 2:47 PM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb “Strength Training is Learning from Tail Events” by @nntalebhttps://medium.com/@nntaleb/strength-training-is-learning-from-tail-events-7aa2c074569d?source=twitterShare-f138bf5466fe-1478475236   Permalink 3:34 PM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Nocera, you’re a BS vendor. But everything you do to cover-up your BS vending entails more BS-vending. Keep quiet & non nocere, @NoceraNYT Permalink 11:56 AM – 6 Nov 2016

@RiskMinds “Your grandmother’s intuitions about #tailrisk is usually right”. Don’t miss @nntaleb @ #RiskMinds. More here http://spr.ly/60168EODK  pic.twitter.com/BAX0fIHKdv Permalink 8:00 AM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Version 2 (cleared typos) @CoachRippetoepic.twitter.com/4i9cF0Yj1r Permalink 7:21 AM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Tail risk management & weightlifting? Draft of the forward for a book published by @CoachRippetoe,for comments.pic.twitter.com/XXCtXSCwRO Permalink 6:58 AM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Syriac is Eastern Aramaic (Western Aramaic ~ Jerusalem/Damascus/Maaloula, Western Syriac ~ Nineveh, Eastern Syriac ~ Babylon) @rennyabraham Permalink 6:06 AM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Aramaic du Jour: “kursh”, slang for “belly” in Levantine, is from Accadian: Gilgamesh, Tablet 10, 222.pic.twitter.com/UOOy0K26De Permalink 5:12 AM – 6 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Yes, “Boy” as a sign of disrespect. You have a problem with displaying my intellectual (& personal) disrespect for you? @NoceraNYT Permalink 2:46 PM – 5 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Nocera boy, @NoceraNYT, let me debate you on “Aleppo” to show you what “Ignorance” is. You can even use Aramaic, W. Syriac or Syrian Arabic. Permalink 8:35 AM – 5 Nov 2016

@DrJillStein Saudi Arabia: -top Clinton Foundation donor -lobbies US via Podesta group -got record arms deals from Obama/Clinton -top terrorism sponsor Permalink 12:26 PM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb A neat way to transform a Wiener process (\-infty,infty) to election probabilities [0,1].pic.twitter.com/zKzhN6DtZv Permalink 7:57 AM – 5 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Nocera, next time you attend my lecture, remind me to teach you “straw man argument” & intel. dishonesty. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man   @NoceraNYT Permalink 7:15 AM – 5 Nov 2016

@lourou1981 @nntaleb the linguistic map of Syria looks strikingly similar to the sphere of control of diff factions in Syria today. Sheer coincidence? Permalink 5:36 PM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb (actually during the crisis) Permalink 3:20 PM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb With Mandelbrot right before the crisis. Alas, weightlifting makes one gain weight.https://twitter.com/HarriusHaller/status/794662544334057472   Permalink 3:19 PM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb In other words every person should vote according to way he or she expects or prefers others to vote. Be uncompromising with virtue ! Permalink 12:48 PM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb What makes a good election forecaster? Not the Brier metric 538 is a terrible forecaster regardless of final outcomepic.twitter.com/IF39qauxtP Permalink 11:34 AM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2) If Nocera were better read he would have suspected there is such a thing as deontic ethics. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deontological_ethics   @NoceraNYT Permalink 6:06 AM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Better NOT know where Aleppo is than BS about it with half knowledge a la Joe Nocera. IYI Joe Nocera. https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577   @NoceraNYT Permalink 5:26 AM – 4 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Dectecting another slip: I said “preferences”. I most probably meant “principles”. Permalink 1:28 PM – 3 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Why my ethics dictate that I vote for the 3rd party regardless of oddshttp://cnb.cx/2eZeyPC   Permalink 1:18 PM – 3 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Even if #GMOs will “feed the world”, you need to look at risks of ruin. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html  https://twitter.com/NonGMOProject/status/794262188349210624   Permalink 12:55 PM – 3 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Spent too much time cleaning the data on Mongolian invasions. Permalink 12:32 PM – 3 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Typo on CNBC: Said 1308 then corrected 1208 and said Attila for Genghis. Permalink 12:12 PM – 3 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Civis romanus sum @BlackWhiteKnite Permalink 8:10 PM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Unlike in static forecasting, the best dynamic forecaster (time) is he who every period forecasts HIS OWN next forecast best. (to continue) Permalink 7:48 PM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb You mean one of these deranged fellows ? @EconMBA @egfalken @IllimitableMan http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/smear.html   Permalink 2:36 PM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Mr Krugman, for economists, to “invoke authority”, well … not a good idea, to put it mildly.https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/793813730454888449   Permalink 7:03 AM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Scam alert: @Fidelity offers a credit card via outside Co, designed to charge late fees+ interest to unsuspecting, similar to Wells Fargo. Permalink 6:13 AM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Levantine du Jour: Ammianus Marcellinus was another Syro-Phoenician Greek. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ammianus_Marcellinus#cite_note-Britannica-1   Permalink 5:25 AM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2) Today someone w/economics degree has a higher chance of sleeping with Kim Kardashian than getting a job as a trader. Finance = STEM Permalink 5:08 AM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Economics is a fake discipline; attempts to improve it (s.a.”behavioral”,”evo”) made it worse! Finance moved to mathematics, accounting,etc. Permalink 5:04 AM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Psychologists are way behind probability/complexity theory in their “normative” definition of rationality.https://twitter.com/SanguineEmpiric/status/793646879485538304   Permalink 4:44 AM – 2 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Quite insulting to probability when someone “estimates” noise with precision: 24.8%, not 25 or 24. #cluelesshttps://twitter.com/FiveThirtyEight/status/793298019693146113   Permalink 1:29 PM – 1 Nov 2016

@nntaleb 2) If you understand nothing about the problem (like DC pundits) then it becomes Iran vs Saudi Arabia, US vs Russia, Mars vs Saturn. Permalink 7:25 AM – 1 Nov 2016

@nntaleb Ignorant pundit (IYIs) see everything w/the magnified prism of geopolitics, not local people trying to make things work. #Lebanon elections Permalink 7:15 AM – 1 Nov 2016

@nntaleb … with HUGE (yuge) practical consequences on model error. @CutTheKnotMath @neilchrisspic.twitter.com/3ezlq1QaSJ Permalink 6:02 AM – 1 Nov 2016

@nntaleb V. counterintuitive useful mathematical result:How higher dimensional areas get SMALLER. @CutTheKnotMath @neilchrisspic.twitter.com/uqGuHzptXx Permalink 5:57 AM – 1 Nov 2016

@nntaleb (what they say about Oxford) Permalink 5:50 PM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb What they call engineering is really physics; what they call physics is math, what they call math nobody knows what it is. @PeterVeep Permalink 5:41 PM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb The conflict: Engineers, applied-probabilists, physicists think in terms of applications; mathematicians view math as art. @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 12:18 PM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb That poor @NateSilver538 still doesn’t get that the possibility of unexpected ↑ variance & moves probabilities→ 50%https://twitter.com/Thesokorus/status/793125893715685377   Permalink 9:34 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb A relevant lesson from Podesta/Huma: bureaucrats & empty suits spend their time in multiplicative/metastatic low information emailing. Permalink 8:24 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Typo. Range for thega [0, \pi] not [0, 2 \pi ]. Varphi in [ 0, 2 pi] Permalink 8:00 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb ἀπὸ μηχανῆς θεός Permalink 7:50 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Fooled by Correlations (cont), a geometric tutorial. Hard to visualize in dimensions >3.pic.twitter.com/6cmW6Krx2r Permalink 7:22 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb La trahison des clercs! The disgusting pseudoleft support for: Saudi Barbaria/Islamofascism Shillary Megacorps https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/trahison_des_clercs   Permalink 6:13 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb You never hear the pseudo-left & neocons say “butcher of Yemen”. Nor alQaeda in Aleppo ever called “butchers”.https://twitter.com/joshua_landis/status/793063579599577088   Permalink 6:08 AM – 31 Oct 2016

@nntaleb (From a few months ago) Permalink 9:12 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb My election modelhttps://twitter.com/zzbar/status/792926636098330624   Permalink 8:47 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb The amount of short tails in the system in order to generate returns for retirees is mindbogggggling.https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/792890807699247104   Permalink 6:09 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@MaxAbrahms Gary Kasparov is on CNN talking about how Russia wants Trump to win. Who will CNN have talk about how Saudi Arabia wants Hillary to win? Permalink 4:55 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Virtue is what you do when nobody is looking. The rest is marketing. #TheBedofProcrustes (but I can’t remember for sure) Permalink 1:51 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb GMOs advocacy reveals charlatanism, proposing solutions w/unseen side effects; scientism for profit. @philipbstarkpic.twitter.com/vL8Qcw8U7m Permalink 1:24 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Being nice counts the most when you are nice to people ignored by others. Permalink 1:21 PM – 30 Oct 2016

@ggreenwald The savage Saudi/US/UK war on Yemen lacks all the typical propaganda options- we’re bombing for freedom, Bad Dictator, etc- so it’s ignored. Permalink 6:34 AM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Journos & soc. “scientists” fail to detect the difference betw science and scientism.https://twitter.com/dmandl/status/792721099662307328   Permalink 6:35 AM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb Ironically the computer allows us to do more abstract math as it does the nitty gritty sh*t work & frees us to see deeper @CutTheKnotMath Permalink 5:59 AM – 30 Oct 2016

@nntaleb We should put ellipticality in our book as higher D fat tails while lower D thin tailed @DrCirillo @financequantpic.twitter.com/JnF0CpvbmS Permalink 5:23 AM – 30 Oct 2016