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India-Pakistan, Nudging, Meat, The Incerto, Richard Thaler, The Intellectual Yet Idiot | Twitter

@nntaleb Any cardiologist in the room? Is a *simple* test of volatility of heart rate powerful enough? Thanks! Permalink 11:36 AM – 30 Sep 2016

@nntaleb السلاح ب ايد الخرا بيجرح Permalink 10:25 AM – 30 Sep 2016

@nntaleb 2/Trump n’est qu’un marchand de pacotille; Hilarante une interventioniste belliqueuse Permalink 10:23 AM – 30 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Pas du tout vrai. Hilarante est avide de guerre, prete a déstabiliser le systeme, a causer des cygnes noirs.   Permalink 10:19 AM – 30 Sep 2016

@RonPaulInstitut Syria – The US Propaganda Shams Now Openly Fail   Permalink 9:05 AM – 30 Sep 2016

@nntaleb 3/ You cannot expect @Grurray points out a sect with suicide bombers to play tit-for-tat as in your textbooks! *Nuclear* suicide bombers… Permalink 6:00 AM – 30 Sep 2016

@nntaleb 2/ Something in Pakistan has been strange, as we know from the Bin Laden episode. In time, about every inconsistency becomes apparent. Permalink 5:51 AM – 30 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Is it me? This India-Pakistan thingy is a very serious. Countries just don’t have direct “skirmishes”. Permalink 5:36 AM – 30 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Skin in the game.   Permalink 6:52 PM – 29 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Procrustes 2nd Edition, UK (Penguin) Permalink 1:05 PM – 29 Sep 2016

@nntaleb I was not worried about the European banking system until a European finance minister said to not worry.   Permalink 10:36 AM – 29 Sep 2016

@nntaleb The Reverse! Logistic is most elegant natural distribution, Normal is an adjustment to it. Permalink 9:53 AM – 29 Sep 2016

@robertwrighter Enjoyed chatting w @MaxAbrahms on @bloggingheads about whether Hillary’s or Trump’s foreign policy is scarier:   Permalink 6:20 PM – 28 Sep 2016

@nntaleb This is the real problem, compounded by an increase in age-conditional life expectancy.   Permalink 5:20 AM – 29 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Huge step in @WolframResearch Mathematica 11: Expression of functions in terms of MeijerG Permalink 4:29 AM – 29 Sep 2016

@nntaleb BTW, evidence that @michikokakutani is pathologically crazy.Not just incompetent; crazy. @MarkHarrisNYC Permalink 4:01 AM – 29 Sep 2016

@nntaleb My point is that a nudger would make your “choice architecture” into helmets. Wrong norms. @han0z @paulmarsha @gaijinrage Permalink 3:24 AM – 29 Sep 2016

@nntaleb 2) In Lebanon the absence of president has been a great thing, shifting a bit of power to the municipalities. Permalink 3:19 AM – 29 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Another reason “nudging” is dangerous.   Permalink 3:13 AM – 29 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Lesson from the 2016 election: an evolved decentralized country w/adults in it & developed legal machinery shouldn’t need a president. Permalink 3:09 AM – 29 Sep 2016

@nntaleb It is precisely because there is money that vultures will destroy Saudi Barbaria. @Jamal_A_Salem Permalink 2:49 AM – 29 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Thank you, the democratic system worked. Obama can be pre-bought by Saudi Barbaria, but we got enough.   Permalink 2:46 PM – 28 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Paternalistic IYI: “Av citizen doesn’t know where Syria is”. To be compatible w/democracy don’t drag them into smthg thy aren’t curious abt. Permalink 5:59 AM – 28 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Also to test regress, n low, do residuals on beta dist since error bounded [(x,(1-x))-, +] @sbelak @DrCirillo @Petronas865 @NateSilver538 Permalink 5:15 AM – 28 Sep 2016

@nntaleb If @DrCirillo says data looks “funny”, then consider that data looks funny. @Petronas865 @NateSilver538 Permalink 3:58 AM – 28 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Yes the graph shows too much noise. From this & other stuff Silver patently fails to refine signal from noise.   Permalink 3:32 AM – 28 Sep 2016

@nntaleb You can’t make this up. IYI ambassador to UN   Permalink 7:00 PM – 27 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Boris wants to swap UK for Turkey in EU.   Permalink 3:12 PM – 27 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Some results (with possible errors) for the Leiden paper. [Jet Lag, of course] Permalink 2:11 PM – 27 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Delenda Monsanto   Permalink 1:22 AM – 27 Sep 2016

@nntaleb *Most* Ancient Greeks ate meet only on festivals, after sacrificing to the gods, adding “most” for imbecile @davidgraeber nitpicking tweets Permalink 1:00 AM – 27 Sep 2016

@nntaleb My point is:limitation on meat eating in Greek Orthodoxy has *some* ancient origin, hence *some* forced Permalink 12:24 AM – 27 Sep 2016

@nntaleb David Graeber, if I call you imbecile, it is not without a reason. Permalink 11:55 PM – 26 Sep 2016

@night_review La dittatura delle minoranze: contro gli intolleranti ci vuole intolleranza, dice @nntaleb   Permalink 11:47 PM – 26 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Turned out @AmbassadorPower is wife of idiot @CassSunstein, protagonist of my piece on IYIs   Permalink 8:28 AM – 26 Sep 2016

@nntaleb History du jour: Shiism in Iran much earlier than Savafides, the 8th C. Khurramites mixed Shiism & Zoroastrianism.   Permalink 4:46 AM – 26 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Graeber is a LIAR. My point is that, empirically, an ACADEMIC job is not necessary to do #Antifragile @davidgraeber @Fedaykin98 Permalink 3:18 AM – 26 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Cor nitpickers, yes there were 4 male nonwaiters; ~10% Permalink 12:06 AM – 26 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Beirut restaurant: the only males are the Permalink 12:26 PM – 25 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Peter, @peterfrankopan beware: Al Arabiya is Saudi funded propaganda.   Permalink 2:59 AM – 25 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Indeed Obama is protecting al Qaeda in Syria. This & the veto are unexplainable… his sympathy for Jihadis…   Permalink 4:25 PM – 24 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Fat Tony attending a lecture.   Permalink 4:18 PM – 24 Sep 2016

@nntaleb A business school professor lecturing on finance is like Hillary Clinton lecturing on deadlifting. Permalink 3:07 PM – 24 Sep 2016

@MaxAbrahms Coincidentally, earlier today I taught a whole class on realism by contrasting it with Hillary’s foreign policies:   Permalink 12:04 PM – 24 Sep 2016

@nntaleb And the Companion Volume will be “Technical Incerto”. Permalink 7:09 AM – 24 Sep 2016

@nntaleb The Incerto finally became a single book. Don’t know when it will be Permalink 6:53 AM – 24 Sep 2016

@nntaleb La dittatura delle minoranze: Taleb mette in guardia dai rischi… contro gli intolleranti ci vuole intolleranza.   Permalink 3:27 AM – 24 Sep 2016

@nntaleb 10 old books feel very aged, out of place, out of sync. 200 year old books feel contemporary. 2000 year old bks feel fresh. #LindyEffect Permalink 6:02 PM – 23 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Mark, not complaining about the smear… I proved immune. I am complaining about showing me in an old picture! @CoachRippetoe @PennyKilkenny Permalink 5:46 PM – 23 Sep 2016

@nntaleb I don’t mind Monsanto’s smear campaign bt they show weightligting pics from 2015, before coaching by @CoachRippetoe!   Permalink 5:24 PM – 23 Sep 2016

@nntaleb I blocked @MehreenKhn who is both a Jihadi advocate & ….appears to works for the FT! BTW never engage Salafis. Just jail them. Permalink 4:55 PM – 23 Sep 2016

@nntaleb On way to Lebanon for a few days. I insist I feel safer than in Europe, as there is ZERO tolerance of Salafis. Zero. Permalink 1:55 PM – 23 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Me too.   Permalink 8:57 AM – 23 Sep 2016

@nntaleb “Airport Reading” you liar. Why are you lying, little parasite?   @florianederer @WGoetzmann Permalink 6:47 AM – 23 Sep 2016

@nntaleb He doesn’t pronounce 3ayn & 7et like natives & exaggerate diff Syriac-Aramaic. Hear the diff Permalink 7:18 PM – 22 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Small correction: Wstrn Syria spoke close to Galilean Aramaic; Syriac is Eastern. “Our Father” in Jewish Aramaic.   Permalink 6:37 PM – 22 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Shame. Shame.   Permalink 2:19 PM – 22 Sep 2016

@nntaleb I view science as a ruthless collision of originality & rigor; social science as the meeting of imitation & sloppiness. Permalink 9:39 AM – 22 Sep 2016

@nntaleb I view science as a ruthless collision of originality & rigor; (Much of social science fails on, not one, but both counts). Permalink 9:36 AM – 22 Sep 2016

@nntaleb I meant meat @drjasonfung @IDMProgram Permalink 9:32 AM – 22 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Ancient Greeks ate meet only on festivals, after sacrificing portion to the gods. Same for Semites. @drjasonfung @IDMProgram Permalink 7:23 AM – 22 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Just consider that carnivores have very stochastic intake compared to herbivores. @drjasonfung Permalink 5:57 AM – 22 Sep 2016

@nntaleb I suspect that under variability in protein intake, the required quantities drop   @drjasonfung @IDMProgram Permalink 5:54 AM – 22 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Imbecile, ALL my tweets autodelete every 5 months. @davidgraeber Permalink 4:58 AM – 22 Sep 2016

@nntaleb David Graeber @davidgraeber tries to disqualify me from discussion because I had wealthy ancestors. Institutionalized envy. @Fedaykin98 Permalink 3:12 PM – 21 Sep 2016

@nntaleb إذا أتتك مذمتي من ناقص فهي الشهادة لي بأني كامل: Mutanabbi @funtime_bobby Permalink 2:08 PM – 21 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Doorman calls you arrogant: you are an a**hole. Academic IYI calls you arrogant: certifies he can’t debunk your work   Permalink 2:04 PM – 21 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Indeed. There are 650 pages (including this) in Antifragile, its topic. @funtime_bobby @EmanuelDerman @R_Thaler @cdipaola62 @CassSunstein Permalink 1:14 PM – 21 Sep 2016

@nntaleb To put it in their terms,on top of other pbms, we are showing their “normative” (benchmarks) are fundamentally wrong   Permalink 12:38 PM – 21 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Is it me or Monsanto is trading as if the deal had ~20% chances of failing? Permalink 10:37 AM – 21 Sep 2016

@nntaleb … Which explains the bias-variance problem: 538 is noisy (and biased) the other is less noisy but more biased. Permalink 10:13 AM – 21 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Predictwise is high for H but his updating is consistent & seems >rigorous vs statisticophaster @FIveTHirtyEight   Permalink 8:17 AM – 21 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Our paper “Expected Shortfall Estimation for Apparently Infinite-Mean Models of Operational Risk” now in print.   Permalink 4:44 AM – 21 Sep 2016

@nntaleb The @FiveThirtyEight unrigorous dynamic updating & how it should be: the outer blue line is how not to change Permalink 4:41 AM – 21 Sep 2016

@nntaleb This is why Silver is ignorant of probability.   Permalink 7:08 PM – 20 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Ha! Round turn. Trump 48%? @FiveThirtyEight proved again a few weeks later CLUELESS abt dynamics of probability.   Permalink 7:05 PM – 20 Sep 2016

@nntaleb This is pure nonsense, statistically.   Permalink 1:06 PM – 20 Sep 2016

@nntaleb New edition of Procrustes, 50% longer. But, for Baal’s sake, shd only be read by pple who know what an aphorism is.   Permalink 6:25 AM – 20 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Cheap tawk: Apologies never exist. You pay: money tawks and BS walks.   Permalink 5:58 AM – 20 Sep 2016

@nntaleb A page frm @peterfrankopan that justifies my doubts w/@dottorpax about historical casualties, exaggerated for Permalink 5:09 AM – 20 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Could the Maaloula Aramaic “Baddak” come from same root as “David” DWD (B-widdak => “You would like?”) ? Permalink 5:01 AM – 20 Sep 2016

@nntaleb 2/”Doesn’t even know the difference between Hecate and Hecuba”:Search for “Hecuba” jumps every pub of my piece(3 x) Permalink 11:33 AM – 19 Sep 2016

@nntaleb From reactions to piece, discovered the IYI can’t tell the satirical from the literal. Permalink 11:15 AM – 19 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Lobbying is much, much cheaper than advertising or R&D to improve product, & has great payoff. Lobbying is immoral.   Permalink 8:30 AM – 19 Sep 2016

@nntaleb From my scratchpad: Beware of Richard Thaler’s results. Beware. @EmanuelDerman @R_Thaler @cdipaola62 Permalink 3:02 PM – 18 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Nestlé Just Suffered a Major Defeat as Community Blocks Water Privatization   Permalink 11:24 AM – 18 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Aramaic du jour: Baddak in Levantine doesn’t seem to come from Arabic but Aramaic; Ma3loula Western Permalink 9:37 AM – 18 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Via negativa   Permalink 9:24 AM – 18 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Like prevent GMO labeling & steer choices? How long can these psychosophasters manage to fool us?   Permalink 4:54 AM – 18 Sep 2016

@nntaleb I grew up w/Jesuits & @R_Thaler is amateur in casuistry.(Changed txt to “=deviation frm desired/prescribed protocol)   Permalink 2:08 PM – 17 Sep 2016

@bparispoker @nntaleb my belated apologies to @SenSanders and @TimReillyPoker for being an IYI on GMO’s a couple months back Permalink 7:42 AM – 17 Sep 2016

@nntaleb “The Intellectual Yet Idiot” Added The IYI has been wrong on Stalinism, GMOs, Iraq, Libya, Syria, lobotomies,   Permalink 5:35 AM – 17 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Problem du jour: find general form from sequence for \alpha ={1,2,…,n} Permalink 3:48 AM – 17 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Max is good. Very good.   Permalink 2:38 PM – 16 Sep 2016

@nntaleb I thank @DrCirillo & others for 4-d depth into Extreme Tails w/ pioneers: de Haan,Balkema,Huesler,Eimahl, & chance to discuss my 2 papers. Permalink 2:05 PM – 16 Sep 2016

@alexcmeyer The best technology is the one you don’t even know is there. @nntaleb hits it on the Permalink 10:51 AM – 16 Sep 2016

@nntaleb I am on a plane deriving guilty pleasure reading comments by IYIs (Intellectual Yet Idiots) on the piece abt IYIs.   Permalink 10:54 AM – 16 Sep 2016

@nntaleb I just published “The Intellectual Yet Idiot”   Permalink 7:36 AM – 16 Sep 2016

@nntaleb The ideological and financial roots of Jihadi terrorism are in Saudi Barbaria.   Permalink 5:34 AM – 16 Sep 2016

@nntaleb The agro lobby is explicitly targeting researchers. Destroy the lives of lobbyists!   Permalink 3:27 AM – 16 Sep 2016

@nntaleb ימח שמו וזכרו @GhassanDahhan يمحي اسموا و زكروا Permalink 3:23 AM – 16 Sep 2016

@nntaleb You should only hit terrorism when the aim is eradication, not mitigation; otherwise they get stronger.   Permalink 12:59 AM – 16 Sep 2016

@nntaleb If I know something about mergers, it is that they kill the companies, both the acquirer and the acquired.   Permalink 7:30 AM – 15 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Our turn to make them pay,@thackerpd, w/dividend. Revenge is to be eaten cold. Will help you get shill @keithkloor for the rest of his life. Permalink 2:06 PM – 14 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Voila: The beginning of the end for GMOs. If you have to shill so much, something is wrong.   Permalink 1:55 PM – 14 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Put on 15lbs weightlifting .   Permalink 7:43 AM – 14 Sep 2016

@DrCirillo #ERHD Workshop Day 3. Einmahl, Taleb @nntaleb and the statistics of extremes. Permalink 11:46 PM – 13 Sep 2016

@nntaleb It is as irrational to reject all conspiracy theories as it is to accept them. Permalink 2:13 PM – 13 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Better picture as @DrCirillo the organizer was hidden in the previous Permalink 1:57 PM – 13 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Trappist “blond” beer Affligem, something else, 1000 years Permalink 10:45 AM – 13 Sep 2016

@nntaleb 70% of the Extreme Value mathematics flaneuring in Leiden by a canal. De Haan asked: “who are the other 30%?” Permalink 10:12 AM – 13 Sep 2016

@BowenBBC Father Elias Adass, Maronite priest in Aleppo Old City stands in ruins of his church, destroyed by rebel Permalink 8:27 AM – 13 Sep 2016

@nntaleb Balkema and de Haan, pillars of Extreme Value Theory, chatting at the Leiden workshop. Permalink 3:13 AM – 13 Sep 2016

@nntaleb This explains why I call her Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison, now AlSaud-Malmaison.âteau_de_Malmaison   Permalink 2:43 AM – 13 Sep 2016

@singularityunl Borrowing a concept from @nntaleb, @carlovdweijer tells us about the #futureofmobility at Permalink 1:20 AM – 13 Sep 2016

@nntaleb The dirtiest man: @henryimiller a failed scientist you can hire to defame scientists.   Permalink 5:08 PM – 12 Sep 2016

@nntaleb The classical idea is to build mental, physical & moral fortitude to face the world #Antifragile Modern one is to change it technologically. Permalink 4:05 PM – 12 Sep 2016

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