For comments:
It takes time for things to break, but they eventually break, & there should be no rush although our impulse is to think that they will collapse immediately after we become aware of the problem. Give things time… 3 to 8 years in today’s complex system. By definition the fragile cannot be selfsustaining as the probability of a collapse increases with time.
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We had to wait 4 years for Fannie Mae to go bust (after detection of their fragility), but it did go bust; 5 years for Syria to blow up, but it did; bankers are losing power 5 years after the crisis. We thought in 2009 that the econ establishment would be discredited and… it is starting to happen about 5 years later. We thought in 2010 that the Greeks would be in the streets and here they are…
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So what’s on the list (of the unsustainably fragile)? For me, Saudi Arabia, Elsevier/Wiley (academic publishing will be Uberized), the Fed’s monopoly, Monsanto, bureaucrats in Europe w/lifetime employment, Oligarchs, etc.Please be specific, avoid the vague and the general.
via For comments: It takes time for things… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
How about the use of the phrase “risk-free rate of return”?