Monthly Archives: April 2013

Friends, 1 Changed the name of the technical book to: FAT TAILS AND ANTIFRAGILITY…

Friends, 1) Changed the name of the technical book to:FAT TAILS AND ANTIFRAGILITY: Lectures on Probability, Risk, and Decisions in the Real World, which should be a completely parallel piece of work, standalone. 2) Completed the main technical points of The Black Swan, and showed IN MATHEMATICAL TERMS the limits of current probability theory and the bullshit by social scientists misusing the math of probability. 3) Realizing that there is nothing more soothing than math in airports, hotel rooms, and train stations. Somehow, psychologically, if you put the argument in precise mathematical form, you feel it is there and you don’t need to make extra effort to convey it to others and avert misinterpretation: truth is robust, particularly when put in non-ambiguous form.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B_31K_MP92hURjZxTkxUTFZnMVk/edit?pli=1
textbook.pdf – Google Drive
docs.google.com

via Friends, 1 Changed….

News is bad for you – and giving up reading it will make you happier

News misleads. Take the following event borrowed from Nassim Taleb. A car drives over a bridge, and the bridge collapses. What does the news media focus on? The car. The person in the car. Where he came from. Where he planned to go. How he experienced the crash if he survived. But that is all irrelevant. What’s relevant? The structural stability of the bridge. That’s the underlying risk that has been lurking, and could lurk in other bridges. But the car is flashy, it’s dramatic, it’s a person non-abstract, and it’s news that’s cheap to produce. News leads us to walk around with the completely wrong risk map in our heads. So terrorism is over-rated. Chronic stress is under-rated.
The collapse of Lehman Brothers is overrated. Fiscal irresponsibility is under-rated. Astronauts are over-rated. Nurses are under-rated.We are not rational enough to be exposed to the press. Watching an airplane crash on television is going to change your attitude toward that risk, regardless of its real probability. If you think you can compensate with the strength of your own inner contemplation, you are wrong. Bankers and economists – who have powerful incentives to compensate for news-borne hazards – have shown that they cannot. The only solution: cut yourself off from news consumption entirely.

HatTip to Dave Lull
via News is bad for you – and giving up reading it will make you happier.