Monthly Archives: April 2013

Friends, presenting Book IV of Antifragile at Stanford…

The podcast of this talk is now live!
How Things Gain from Disorder

Friends, presenting Book IV of Antifragile at Stanford, 4:30, Open to the Public. Focus on Optionality/Convexity, or why you’d rather be antifragile and dumb than robust and educated & why they built cathedrals without knowledge of Euclidian geometry….

http://stvp.stanford.edu/blog/?page_id=1277

(Friends of the area I apologize for not connecting as I am in-and-out.)

DFJ Entrepreneurial Thought Leaders Seminar | Stanford Technology Ventures Program

The DFJ Entrepreneurial Thought Leaders Seminar is a weekly lecture series on entrepreneurship featuring entrepreneurs, innovators and industry leaders. Stanford students can earn credit for attending the series by registering for MS&E 472. The series is also free and open to the public.

via Friends, presenting… | Facebook.

Friends, has anyone taken a MOOC online class?

Friends, has anyone taken a MOOC online class? Is there a big difference with a physical class? Does the absence of 3-D physical contact lower motivation?Universities seem more metastatic in their bureaucracies than government … and unchecked. Back-of-the-envelope: It could be that universities cost between 5 and 20x more to operate than the private. When I was at U Mass Amherst, I calculated that the costs of having someone clean my office there were 10-20 times that of my home office. And they would not let me use a private cleaning service.And there is a huge amount of money spent of funding people to “do research” that is not research, but just something totally cosmetic.

via Friends, has anyone… | Facebook.

Edge Perspectives with John Hagel: Getting Stronger through Stress: Making Black Swans Work for You

In this context, his perspective is very consistent with the critique of modern push systems that I (and my co-authors) developed in The Power of Pull. Push systems are driven by two concerns: the ability to forecast or predict events and the quest for increasing efficiency by designing systems that are highly standardized and tightly specified to remove any unnecessary activity – everything is arranged to be in the right place at the right time to meet anticipated demand. Scalable efficiency is the ultimate goal.

Virtually all of our contemporary institutions – firms, educational institutions and government – have been designed as push systems. While these systems tend to prosper in highly stable times, they do very poorly in times of rapid change and growing uncertainty. They become highly vulnerable to Black Swans, setting cascades and avalanches into motion that amplify and extend the disruptive effects of the initial event. By seeking to remove unpredictability, we are actually becoming more fragile. As Taleb observes: “When you are fragile, you depend on things following the exact planned course, with as little deviation as possible – for deviations are more harmful than helpful. This is why the fragile needs to be very predictive in its approach, and, conversely, predictive systems cause fragility.”

via Edge Perspectives with John Hagel: Getting Stronger through Stress: Making Black Swans Work for You.

The importance of being antifragile | Bjørn Stærk

Antifragility is the opposite of this, a condition where the potential downside is limited, but the upside is unlimited. A situation where things will probably go badly, but only a little badly, and in the best case they will go really well. An everyday example is that you ask someone out for a date. The worst, and most likely, outcome is that they decline, which is sad but no disaster. But the best outcome is that you will find someone to spend the rest of your life with.
Or let’s say you write a novel. The worst, and most likely, outcome is that you will have wasted your time, because nobody wants to read it. Again, this is sad, but no disaster. You’ve lost time and effort, but it is a limited loss. But the best possible outcome is practically unlimited: That you will have written the next Harry Potter or Fifty Shades of Grey.
Antifragility is frightening, but the fact that the downside is more probable is outweighed by the fact that the upside is so wonderful.

via The importance of being antifragile | Bjørn Stærk.

William Cohan is showing us the true mission of journalism…

William Cohan is showing us the true mission of journalism: expose ethical breaches (instead of confusing people with noise or cause them to take foolish risks). He has what very few journalists have: courage. No other journalist had the guts to expose the Alan Blinder problem (I know, since when I went to the FT, they said “no interest”).

Where Bank Regulators Go to Get Rich
www.bloomberg.com
Mary Schapiro, the former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, must take us for fools.

via William Cohan is… | Facebook.