Amateur prophets add to the future, pros remove from it.

http://www.economist.com/node/17509373?story_id=17509373&CFID=149238396&CFTOKEN=89583226

Nassim Taleb looks at what will break, and what won’t
www.economist.com
Paradoxically, one can make long-term predictions on the basis of the prevalence of forecasting errors. A system that is over-reliant on prediction (through leverage, like the banking system before the recent crisis), hence fragile to unforeseen “black swan” events, will eventually break into piece