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Tag Archives: Taleb’s Moocs

Binary vs Vanilla Payoffs and Predictions: An error in the research/risk literature | Taleb’s MOOCs

Published on Aug 21, 2013Micro-Mooc on a paper by Taleb and Tetlock (one manifestation of the LUDIC FALLACY). There are serious statistical differences between predictions, bets, and exposures that have a yes/no type of payoff, the “binaries”, and those that have varying payoffs, which we call the “vanilla”. Real world exposures tend to belong to […]