Tag Archives: Masquerade Problem

This is a technical version of the “Masquerade Problem”…

Update 4/8/20.  A reader has pointed out that the pdf this post linked to is no longer valid. They subsequently tweeted to NNT asking how to follow up on the Masquerade Problem and were directed to the recent version of the ‘Technical Incerto’ currently hosted and available to download as ‘Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Application’ from https://www.researchers.one/article/2020-01-21. Discussion of the Masquerade Problem starts on page 41 of the current version.


This is a technical version of the “Masquerade Problem” in The Black Swan, or how to survive with problem of induction. Remarkably, 7 years later, I have not seen anyone getting it. Hopefully, when presented technically, people may get the point.

Will convert the Chapter into a paper at some point, format in LaTex and put on ArXiv. But comments are welcome.

Thanks in advance