Complexity is about the scale.Some systems are very intelligent…

Complexity is about the scale.Some systems are very intelligent in the aggregate while composed of unintelligent units Ant colonies.Some systems are very unintelligent while composed of very intelligent units certain countries on the Mediterranean.Some systems are intelligent while composed of intelligent units 19th C science, legal systems throughout history.And some systems are very unintelligent while composed of unintelligent units Washington, finance, modern academia, economics.

via Complexity is about the scale. Some systems are… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

An introduction for Silent Risk…

An introduction for Silent Risk. Presenting the difference between verbalistic description of probabilistic events and the true rigorous (contractual or mathematical) one. We really don’t know what we are talking about when we talk about probability. Except, of course, firefighters.

Adding (p 55) a definition of a Charlatan. Why verbalistic “predictions” (and prediction markets) are nonsense.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8nhAlfIk3QINW1YQm1uSmRjcmc/edit

via An introduction for Silent Risk. Presenting the… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.