I am now co-editor of an academic journal Risk and Decision Analysis, seeking non-BS mathematical papers on risk:
http://www.iospress.nl/journal/risk-and-decision-analysis/
This picture show the effects of the information ratio (that is, benefits/uncertainty or signal/noise) on ruin; ruin is vastly more affected by noise than by the potential benefits or the signal.
(Continuing the previous post).
The Precautionary Principle paper is here
https://docs.google.com/file/d/ 0B8nhAlfIk3QIbGFzOXF5UUN3N2 c/edit?pli=1
The previous post has not been well digested as people still argued in about “benefits” not realizing the relation (many who did not seem to have read PP and repeated the Russian Roulette fallacy were zapped). Further, it looks like people are still mistaken about the concept behind our PP: it is NOT conservative, as it encourages (actually begs for) risk taking but confines it to safe domains.
Something people don’t get: more skepticism about climate models should lead to more “green” ecological conservationist policies not more lax pro-pollution ones. Why? Simply, uncertainty about the models increases fragility (and thickens the left tail), no matter what the benefits can be in the right tail.
Added the section to the precautionary principle. Please discuss but stick to rigor and avoid buzzwords.https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8nhAlfIk3QIUUthSzJqUnRPbDg/edit
via Facebook.
This video was recorded at UC Berkeley on August 10, 2014 as part of a series of talks to honor Seth Roberts.
HatTip to K Kalidasan
John, I reviewed Taleb’s Antifragile on Fat Tail Mag. Here is a quote:
“Now close to seven years later we have Antifragile Taleb’s newest book that leaves the black swan or the rare event as something beyond mystical and returns to the process itself—to the random distribution and how to take the upside payoff and avoid the downside. As Seneca once said: “Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity”. Being antifragile as Taleb explains is about cutting the downside and exposing oneself to volatility and opportunity as bearer of good news. He promises too that by following his antifragile logic, process, and even workout you would do better than the rest because of nonlinear convexity.”
Best
E.D. Lemus
N Underground Publisher Ltd.
Fat Tail Mag Number 1 Volume 1: Edvin Lemus: 9781500784423: Amazon.com: Books.
Nassim N. Taleb ن 