Uses a continuous time process to price an election; we end up with an option-stule pricing. The martigale approach optimizes the Brier score.
The corresponding paper is here: How to Predict an Election (pdf)
Published on Feb 14, 2017
How “evidence” about the risk of terrorism as shown in the NYT and by BS vending journos makes no sense statistically. Explains the difference between classes using principles of Extreme Value Theory EVT without any math.
Tail Risk Measurement Heuristics by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
One Bank Flagship Seminar
Published on Jan 17, 2017
Published on Dec 7, 2016
A live recording of the viewpoints on behavioural economics by Gerd Gigerenzer and Nassim Nicholas Taleb at RiskMinds International, 2016. Find out more at https://finance.knect365.com/riskminds-international.