Something people don’t get: more skepticism about climate models should lead to more “green” ecological conservationist policies not more lax pro-pollution ones. Why? Simply, uncertainty about the models increases fragility (and thickens the left tail), no matter what the benefits can be in the right tail.
Added the section to the precautionary principle. Please discuss but stick to rigor and avoid buzzwords.https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8nhAlfIk3QIUUthSzJqUnRPbDg/edit
via Facebook.
An introduction for Silent Risk. Presenting the difference between verbalistic description of probabilistic events and the true rigorous (contractual or mathematical) one. We really don’t know what we are talking about when we talk about probability. Except, of course, firefighters.
Adding (p 55) a definition of a Charlatan. Why verbalistic “predictions” (and prediction markets) are nonsense.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8nhAlfIk3QINW1YQm1uSmRjcmc/edit
via An introduction for Silent Risk. Presenting the… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
Finally, our Precautionary Principle-GMO paper is done. It establishes the difference between precaution and risk aversion.
Comments welcome, but only for those who have read the paper and do not rehash fallacies addressed in it.
via Finally, our Precautionary Principle-GMO paper… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
Paper on the measurement of inequality almost done. How people mismeasure it and flaws in Piketty’s approach.
—
Please make no comments on whether inequality is good or bad, etc. or engage in the politics of envy. This is a technical discussion about a technical *nonpolitical* problem.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8nhAlfIk3QIbzRrRkhhc1RNY0U/edit
via Paper on the measurement of inequality almost… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
The Precautionary Principle, a Fact Sheet With application to GMOs,a draft for discussiom by Yaneer Bar-Yam., Rupert Read, and yours truly. New File Location
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/pp2.pdf
via The Precautionary Principle, a Fact Sheet With… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.