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Category Archives: Papers

Fat Tails From Recursive Uncertainty

Technical but shows logic behind my comments that future tail events larger than past (BRL GER) https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8nhAlfIk3QIOXo2a2xKSXgyM0k/edit?pli=1 via Twitter / nntaleb: Technical but shows logic behind ….

Where Do Thin Tails Come From?

Where Do Thin Tails Come From? Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Submitted on 25 Jul 2013 (v1), last revised 29 Jul 2013 (this version, v2)) The literature of heavy tails (typically) starts with a random walk and finds mechanisms that lead to fat tails under aggregation. We follow the inverse route and show how starting with fat […]

In the U.S., when I look at a room with hotshot businessmen in 2014…

In the U.S., when I look at a room with hotshot businessmen in 2014, I know that the 2024 one will be different (except for businessess subject to bailouts). The same cannot be said in Europe or in places where the state is powerful. And if I look at the bureaucratic and academic establishments, the […]

The Macrobullshit problem

158 The Macrobullshit problem, r=g, and why a degree in economics is very harmful analytically I started my professional life as a foreign exchange option trader. Thirty years ago economists believed that “purchasing power parity” determined the “long term” currency rate between countries. And economists who became traders (plus traders stupid enough to listen to […]

A bit technical, but the paper on measure of concentration under fat tails…

A bit technical, but the paper on measure of concentration under fat tails –just finished — also mentions Pinker’s mistakes in “The Better Angel”, but dismissing Pinker’s thesis and conclusions from microscopic sample for fat tails doesn’t require more than one single sentence. We had to add two theorems so people don’t counter us with […]