Note 154 on prediction markets, and more generally academic BS, and my argument with one of the proponents.Please don’t comment on prediction markets unless you have either read the paper of watched the video.
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/notebook.htm
via Note 154 on prediction markets, and more… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
Really interesting John, thanks!
I think that you would be really interested in some of the most cutting-edge research that I have come across explaining crowds and prediction markets.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=1919614
And you may also enjoy this blog about the same too:
https://thecrowdsociety.jux.com/
Powerful stuff, no?
You might have some luck catching NNT’s interest via Twitter. Will check out your links further when I have a sec.
Best, John