Friends, let us look for heuristics to not be turkeys…

Friends, let us look for heuristics to not be turkeys.In the eyes of the nonspecialist, the marketer good at BS could more easily pass for a specialist than the real specialist Plato. This extends beyond the confidence game: In a highly random environment, the link cause-effect is blurred and in large corporations the fake who knows how to claim credit for successes tends to become the chairperson.So what is the heuristic in a situation facing such a choice? Assuming you are facing two persons and need to make a decision on whose services to use, what is your convex heuristic?
“Never hire a well-dressed option trader” was a heuristic I suggested in Dynamic Hedging 1996. Avoid the economist at all costs is a potent heuristic. Another: “If someone can explain very clearly a procedure, with a credible intellectual discourse, he is not likely to be a true expert”. Or: “verify if he eats his own dog food skin-in-the-game.Eager to hear suggestions.

via Friends, let us look for heuristics to… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.

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