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The probabilistic argument for the effectiveness of nature in managing risk…

The probabilistic argument for the effectiveness of nature in managing risk: What is fragile will eventually break and what is not will not… This is the argument that nature does not produce monstrous tail events that threaten its existence, with n=trillions of trillions … And why we should act WITHIN nature’s statistical properties.
And unless we have ZERO tolerance for stuff such as GMOs we can’t survive.
This is the reasoning behind it: kolmorogov’s zero-one law, Borel-Cantelli lemma, etc.
(There is a weak survivorship bias, I agree, but it has to be very weak.)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kolmogorov’s_zero–one_law

Kolmogorov’s zero–one law – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
In probability theory, Kolmogorov’s zero–one law, named in honor of Andrey Nikolaevich Kolmogorov, specifies that a certain type of event, called a tail event, will either almost surely happen or almost surely not happen; that is, the probability of such an event occurring is zero or one.

via The probabilistic argument for the… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook. 7/5/2013

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