The Black Swan Report

My nightmare when I started my adult life was the image of a committee of middle-aged and older men sitting around a conference table and quietly “deliberating”, in a composed way, then “judging” a junior person whose fate depends on them. The “judgment” could have been anything, ranging from a job assessment or promotion, a […]

Just as when you mix pure and impure material, the result is impure, uncertainty can contaminate certainty but never the other way around. When you multiply an uncertain variable by a certain number, the result is uncertain and not certain. If the multiplier is >1, the result is even more uncertain this is leverage, which […]

A trivial and potent heuristic to figure out success: a) you are absolutely successful if and only if you don’t envy anyone; b) quite successful if those you envy you don’t know in person; c) miserably unsuccessful if those you envy you encounter or think about daily. Absolute success is mostly found among ascetic persons. […]