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Thanks friends! The paper is here…

Thanks friends! The paper is here.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1850428


The Future Has Thicker Tails than the Past: Model Error as Branching Counterfactuals by Nassim Taleb
papers.ssrn.com
Ex ante predicted outcomes should be interpreted as counterfactuals (potential histories), with errors as the spread between outcomes. But error rates have erro

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