Taleb addresses climate change in the second edition of his book and answers those who want to use his theories to do nothing: “The skepticism about models I propose does not lead to the conclusion endorsed by anti-environmentalists and pro-market fundamentalists. Quite the contrary: we need to be hyper-conservationists ecologically, since we do not know what we are harming with now. That’s the sound policy under conditions of ignorance and epistemic opacity.” That’s his fancy way of saying that the Black Swan of climate change has so much downside, we need to be very careful. But to handle this challenge, we’ll need to do something we’ve never done and it thus seems impossible as well. That’s the second Black Swan here.

In that sense, though, Taleb’s work gives me hope — the unexpected not only can happen, he says, it’s really the only thing that ever changes history. Which Black Swan will hit first? Will it be climate devastation and resource shortages … or collective action to create more profitable, healthy, and sustainable companies, communities, and countries?

The first Swan has left the gate and we have some catching up to do, but I’m betting on the second.