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Yes, You Are (Maybe) Overconfident | Messy Matters

218 of you took our calibration quiz, not counting the 10% of submissions that had to be thrown out for not being complete or giving ranges with the min greater than the max or other sanity check failures. (Here’s the raw data.)

The bad news is that you’re terrible at making 90% confidence intervals. For example, not a single person had all 10 of their intervals contain the true answer, which, if everyone were perfectly calibrated, should’ve happened by chance to 35% of you. Getting less than 6 good intervals should, statistically, not have happened to anyone. How many actually had 5 or fewer good intervals? 76% of you.

Here’s a histogram of the number of good intervals you got, out of 10:

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