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Tag Archives: probability

Social Science and Probability

Triangular self reference, citation rings, and the subdiscipline of bullshittology. Timeline Photos – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

Throw Out the Old Economic Models – Room for Debate – NYTimes.com

Throw Out the Probability Models Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a former derivatives trader, is a distinguished professor of risk engineering at Polytechnic Institute of New York University. He is the author of “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.” Updated April 2, 2012, 4:44 PM After the events that started in 2007 and the […]

How to do Precisely the Right Thing at all Possible Times

“The happiness you can expect from anything you do is a function of two things: the odds of getting a gain, and; the value of that gain. You multiply these two things together and you know exactly how good your decision or action is going to be.”