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Tag Archives: fat tails

Something people don’t realize about fat-tailed probabilities…

Something people don’t realize about fat-tailed probabilities: We may accept to take risks with .00001 pct chance of blowing up the planet. May be OK for some. But the inconsistency is that we do serially and collectively take A LOT of “one-off” risk. If nothing happens, we may do it again. And again. Or we […]

Friends, thanks to the requests, here is the first in a mini-tutorial series. Subject: Fat Tails.

Friends, thanks to the requests, here is the first in a mini-tutorial series. Subject: Fat Tails.corrected video version http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s45E8_jkyJc&feature=youtu.beMini Tutorial 1, Fat Tails Simplified in 8 1/2 minutesA quick tutorial introducing the idea of Fat Tails in about 8 minutes, as simply as possible. Fat Tails make us understand the world much less than we […]

The central argument of The Black Swan was understood by…

The central argument of The Black Swan was understood by:100% of firemen99.9% of skin-in-the-game risk-takers and businesspersons85% of common readers about > 3 million copies80% of hard scientists except those doing econonophysics, s.a. Sornette, etc. and complexity artists65% of psychologists except Harvard psychologists60% of traders25% of U.K. journalists12.1% of money managers who manage money of […]

Twitter / nntaleb: Hierarchy of Fat Tails …

Hierarchy of Fat Tails https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/fattailedness.pdf via Twitter / nntaleb: Hierarchy of Fat Tails ….

Friends, here is: my new text. Volume 1…

Friends, here is: my new text. Volume 1 covers the ideas of The Black Swan expressed mathematically. http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/FatTails.html(added derivations of skin-in-the-game, etc.) How can one correct academic fraud? Not only have economics professors not addressed the substance of my points accusing them of misusing statistical methods, remember these frauds are still using risk methods that […]