Non-predictability

Taleb says that anything that is non-measurable and non-predictable will remain non-measurable and non-predictable, no matter how many PhDs you put on the job. There is a limit to knowledge that can be reached, no matter how much you rely on sophisticated statistical and risk management science.

Living life

Provided we have the right type of rigor, we need randomness, mess, adventures, uncertainty, self-discovery, near-traumatic episodes, all these things that make life worth living, compared to the structured, fake, and ineffective life of an empty-suit CEO with a preset schedule and an alarm clock.

via Business lessons from Anti-Fragile | Marketing Donut.

Book review in the form of Taleb quotes organized under topics.

Taleb sometimes gives the feeling of contradictions: marketing is bad, but Steve Jobs is great; barbell strategy and optionality is great, but isn’t it about risks and downsides transferred to others [Isn’t Thales a pure speculator?], cigarettes are bad but traditions are good.

Also this love of tradition makes people with more background at ease to take risks with barbell strategy; but what about the poor with nothing to lose? Benefits might statistically go to those who already have… [It reminds the story told by J.-B. Doumeng: It is a millionaire who recounts his difficult beginnings: “I bought an apple 50 cents, I polished it to shine and I sold it for one franc. With this, I bought two apples 50cts, I carefully polished and I sold them 2 Fr after a moment, I could buy a cart to sell my apples and then I made a big inheritance … “]

You now know why it has been a challenge. A very strange, dense, fascinating book, but if you like these concepts, you must read Antifragile. In fact you must read the Black Swan first, if you have not and if you like it, I am sure you will read Antifragile.

via Start-Up: the book » Blog Archive » After the Black Swan, Taleb strikes again with Antifragile.

By TJ Strydom for The Times

Many people wish Lebanese-born American thinker Nassim Taleb would redesign the world economy, rebooting it like a computer, making it more durable to shocks, panic and unforeseen tragedies.

In his new book, Antifragile, he makes it clear that he won’t, and that no one should even try.

He distinguishes between three concepts: fragility, robustness and antifragility. Anyone who has ever dropped an anvil on an iPad knows that the first is robust, and the second is fragile. Fragile things can stop working even if a small part is damaged. Robust things seem able to withstand any assault, but over time a tiny crack or a spot of rust will grow into something devastating.

The only way to stand the test of time, according to Taleb, is to be “antifragile”. It is the term he coins for “a mechanism by which the system regenerates itself continuously by using, rather than suffering from, random events, shocks, stressors and volatility”.

via Handle Without Care: TJ Strydom Reviews Antifragile by Nassim Taleb | Books LIVE.

Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder by Nassim Nicholas Taleb looks at life according to a Stoic philosophy which is indifferent to pleasure or pain. The concept of antifragility domesticates uncertainty and examines the future with a robust rationality devoid of too much emotional attachment.

The main thrust of antifragility teaches that systems benefit from stress and uncertainty. The Stoic sage transforms fear to prudence and pain to information.

Every good doctor investigates the source of pain. This is true because valuable information can be gleaned in order to arrive at a correct diagnosis and treatment regimen.

Taleb teaches that major systems benefit from stress, disorder, volatility and turmoil. Essentially, the absence of challenge degrades the best performers because they cannot grow due to atrophy from disuse of their talents and skills.

In fact, barricades can enhance strength from the monumental effort needed to break them down. The only problem here is the stress on the individual which extracts costs to society later on.

via Book Review: Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder by Nassim Nicholas Taleb – Blogcritics Books.