A conjecture. Any “discovery” in the “soft” sciences…

A conjecture. Any “discovery” in the “soft” sciences related to human nature that is not wrong should be found in the ancients, and, if not there, it would be wrong.
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For ease of access these get recycled in Montaigne (who was a popularizer of people who wrote 1500 y earlier), better, the vastly more erudite Erasmus, plus the corpus Paroemiographorum of Greek proverbs, a compilation of Arabic proverbs, etc.
This is Lindy at work. I announced it to John Gray who immediately wondered if that covered such a thing as “cognitive dissonance”, an idea that seems eminently modern. Well, it is found it in Montaigne “Effect renard”, referring to Aesop (sour grapes, the grapes you can’t reach are declaed ex post to be not good.) We’ve known about it for at least 2600 years (and Aeasop was reflecting collective, perhaps more ancient, wisdom).
One exception perhaps concerns things that correspond to modernity, things to which the ancients were not exposed.
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via A conjecture. Any “discovery” in the “soft”… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

Public Lecture: “Markers of Country Fragility” with Dr. Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Eventbrite

Still 78 tickets left as of hitting the publish button!

Public Lecture: “Markers of Country Fragility” with Dr. Nassim Nicholas Taleb

The Fares Center of Eastern Mediterranean StudiesThursday, March 26, 2015 from 4:00 PM to 5:30 PM (EDT)Medford, MA Ticket Information
General Admission 78 Tickets 1d 23h 57m Free

via Public Lecture: “Markers of Country Fragility” with Dr. Nassim Nicholas Taleb- Eventbrite.

My arguments against Value at Risk…

My arguments against Value at Risk (or measurement of tail risks) 18 years ago and the very first article I ever wrote. My arguments have not changed, those of the opponents kept changing. The method is what blew up the banks and FNMA in 2008…
I am posting because it generalizes to all sucker risk taking in complex domains, including GMOs, etc. And also because people kept using a fraud periodically rediscovering it is a fraud yet kept using it.

John KAY: “As the global financial crisis began to break in 2007, David Viniar, then chief financial officer of Goldman Sachs, reported in astonishment that his firm had experienced “25 standard deviation events, several days in a row”. Mr Viniar’s successor, Harvey Schwartz, has been similarly surprised. When the Swiss franc was unpegged last month, he described Goldman Sachs’ experience as a “20-plus standard deviation” occurrence.”

This triggered a smear campaign, an 18 year smear campaign by very vactive people.
http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/jorion.html

Against Value at Risk
Philippe Jorion is perhaps the most credible member of the pro-VAR camp. I will answer his criticism while expanding on some of the more technical statements I made during the interview (DS, December/January 1997). Indeed, while Philippe Jorion and I agree on many core points, we mainly disagree on…
fooledbyrandomness.com|By ntaleb

via My arguments against Value at Risk (or… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.