Antifragility: Gaining From Volatility, Stress And Disorder | S.U.R.E.

Nassim Taleb R2

Join us for a public talk by Prof Nassim Taleb as he shares his theories on two of his bestselling books; The Black Swan and Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder.

Date: Wednesday, 24 September 2014

Time: 10.00am – 11.30am

Venue: Level 16, The Pod 100 Victoria Street, National Library Building, Singapore 188064.
For access to The Pod, please proceed to lift lobby opposite the information counter.

Please visit nlb.gov.sg/golibrary to register for this programme. Admission is free.  

via Antifragility: Gaining From Volatility, Stress And Disorder | S.U.R.E..

Friends, looking for data on deaths under nation-states compared to casualties under the “messy” city-state …

Friends, looking for data on deaths under nation-states compared to casualties under the “messy” city-state and statelings regime. Historians tell me that “there were a lot wars” but these wars weren’t cumulatively so murderous. Take Italy: 650,000 people died in the 1rst war; before that I can’t find anything worse than 16,000 in the 16th century. I don’t know how the 30 Y war affected Italy.

Any help with data would be welcome. The concern is city-states in 18th C Europe (and 17th)…

via Timeline Photos – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

LEARNING TO DO NOTHING Idleness as a BS detector/cleaner.

LEARNING TO DO NOTHING Idleness as a BS detector/cleaner – At the start of this year I resolved to do “nothing except if it felt like a hobby” i.e., “satisfy interests while providing entertainment value with zero pressure, no schedule and no feeling of duty”. The rule is to wake up with the aim to “do nothing”, have nothing scheduled and avoid the usual guilt or shame encountered by most when “wasting time”, have minimum committments and talk to NO journalist. Of course, cut everything unpleasant, no matter what the potential gain. Treat everything including mathematics the way a great-uncle of mine who was a man of leisure treated his afternoon game of bridge: intellectual concentration as entertainment.RESULT: 12 academic papers 9 accepted so far, finished a book Silent Risk–well, almost, wrote 100 aphorisms, ate 2 Beijing ducks, learned to typeset books as a self-standing publisher, found 4 investments … and this is 3/4 of the year.
NOTE: To do things make sure you have no assistant. They drag you into doing things for the sake of “work”.

via LEARNING TO DO NOTHING Idleness as a BS… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

I am trying to provide a probabilistic structure for fasting…

Friends, for comments.

I am trying to provide a probabilistic structure for fasting in nature assuming meal frequency follows a certain power law of various thickness of tails and scale.

Assuming that nature has traditionally delivered food to us with some periods of famines, it is foolish to think that it would have irregularity at a single scale, say one a week, but not at a different scale. So if we are deprived of food once a week for about one day, we should also be deprived of food for 2 consecutive days every month (or fortnight, etc.), and for an entire week every couple of years.

Recall that we are calibrated for occasional deprivation.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8nhAlfIk3QISldaN2dPd2VlMGs/edit?pli=1

via Friends, for comments. I am trying to provide a… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.