Finally found a way to explain the central asymmetry of life leading to nonlinearities (convexity effects)
www.fooledbyrandomness.com/Seneca.pdf
via Finally found a way….
Finally found a way…
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Category Archives: Pdf
Chapter 2 is ready.http://fooledbyrandomness.com/chapter2.pdf(Fat Tony is back)
Chapter 2 is ready.
http://fooledbyrandomness.com/chapter2.pdf
(Fat Tony is back)
http://fooledbyrandomness.com/chapter2.pdf
fooledbyrandomness.com
…a simpler, more intuitive explanation
A link from NNT’s homepage.
Chapter 4. Thales’ Secret, or The Intelligence of Antifragility (pdf)
I landed early (once) — A simple heuristic to get an inheritance — Where we discuss the idea of doing instead place of walking the Great Walk — Where the philosophers’ stone was staring at us — ideas matter less than fragility
The Problem is Beyond Psychology: The Real World is More Random than Regression Analyses by Nassim Taleb, Daniel Goldstein :: SSRN
The Problem is Beyond Psychology: The Real World is More Random than Regression Analyses
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
NYU-Poly
Daniel G. Goldstein
London Business School
International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming
Abstract:
Where the problem is not expert underestimation of randomness, but more: the tools themselves used in regression analyses and similar methods underestimate fat tails, hence the randomness in the data. We should avoid imparting psychological explanations to errors in the use of statistical methods.
[Updated: The Problem is Beyond Psychology 2012]
Lillian Reports
Had a nice email from Lillian who was able to attend NNT’s talk the other night . She gave me permission to quote her…
This is the material used in the NNT presentation last evening at Columbia …The event was plagued with audiovisual gremlins but with good humor and a level of patience he is not supposed to have, all went remarkably well… NNT suggested that the reliability of the technical equipment is inverse to the tuition cost of the university that owns it…
Regards
Thanks Lillian!