Category Archives: Feeds

Nassim Taleb – Profiting from Uncertainty | Interviews withTopTraders

Shared by JohnH

Great find from Christopher at http://www.scalavolpe.com
From 2006.

AT: Do you just have to deal with the emotional side of trading, or is there a way to minimize it?

NNT: I have to deal with it. My strength is that I’m emotional, but that’s also my problem. I’ve always wanted to be out of the markets, but I have this love for options.

What bothers me is not the trading but what comes with it — the emotions and dealing with investors. Trading is like chocolate — a little bit is good for you, but a lot [can hurt you]. It should be done in small doses.

What Would You Do with a 67,000% Gain? – Scala Volpe Capital

Shared by JohnH

Wow, great find Christopher!

This article from The Forex Village contains some rare insight by Taleb on how he approached options trading.

Of all the information in the article, I think one of the biggest takeaways is Taleb’s point about how far out-of-the-money (OTM) options are likely not to be priced accurately.  Human beings created the option pricing formula.  Human beings have a very difficult time perceiving the likelihood of rare (and often catastrophic) events.  Thus, the option pricing formula does not perform so well when assigning values to far OTM options, since these options are attempting to capture the possibility of extremely rare events.  Ultimately, this undervaluing creates the potential for massive gains, like the one Taleb had in 1987.  

The Great Bank Robbery – Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Mark Spitznagel – Project Syndicate

2011-09-02

The Great Bank Robbery

NEW YORK – For the American economy – and for many other developed economies – the elephant in the room is the amount of money paid to bankers over the last five years. In the United States, the sum stands at an astounding $2.2 trillion for banks that have filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Extrapolating over the coming decade, the numbers would approach $5 trillion, an amount vastly larger than what both President Barack Obama’s administration and his Republican opponents seem willing to cut from further government deficits.