Shared by JohnH

HatTip to Dave Lull! Thanks Dave.

Notes from the talk

Taleb returns to his alma mater. This talk supercedes his previous work (e.g. Black Swan). His main points are:

• We don’t have a word for the opposite of fragile.
    Fragile systems have small probability of huge negative payoff
    Robust systems have consistent payoffs
    ? has a small probability of a large pay-off
• Fragile systems eventually fail. ? systems eventually come good.

Shared by JohnH

There’s a two for one ticket offer (if your hedge fund is listed in their publication) for $1,950.

Nassim Taleb, author of the bestselling book “The Black Swan”; Mitch Julis, co-founder of Canyon Capital Advisors; and Emmanuel “Manny” Roman, chief operating officer of Man Group, will offer the keynote addresses at the eighth annual AR Symposium, being held in New York on Wednesday and Thursday, November 2 and 3 at the New York Athletic Club. The speakers will address the pressing issues faced by investors today as economic uncertainty continues.

Shared by JohnH

From Bloomberg Markets 50. HatTip to Dave Lull Hoping some audio or video of the panel comes available. NNT and Danny Kahneman on the same panel!

Taleb stated that “black swans” can’t be predicted. He pointed out lessons from the ancient world and the need for heuristics, or the experienced-based techniques of problem solving and learning.

“Technology has side effects,” Dr. Taleb said. “We don’t understand how things that don’t work. Do we implement more regulation or don’t regulate at all?”

He alluded to the ancients, who focused on preventative medicine as a way to keep human error in check—make the penalty for wrongdoing stiff enough and “risk is greatly reduced.” In the modern world, Dr. Taled said, “There will be more rogue traders, more government waste.”

A good map is ambiguous; it is one that intrigues you, manipulates you, instils enough confusion to keep things sparkling -not a nerdy attempt at so-called realism. Just like language. Just like conversation. Like life. (Venice, Dorsoduro – tore the map)

A book that can be summarized should not be written as a book.