Category Archives: Antifragility

Philip Cross: Let’s celebrate risk | Financial Post

The antifragile viewpoint prefers age-tested heuristics to technology based on the scientific method. More specifically, it is deeply skeptical about school-based education compared with uncodifiable, intuitive, or experience-based knowledge. As the noted philosopher Yogi Berra said, “In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; in practice, there is.”

This is why economic models failed during the 2008 meltdown. As an example of how necessity is the best teacher, Taleb argues the fastest way to learn a foreign language is spending a month in jail with people who speak that tongue.

The obsession of economists with the very top and bottom of the income distribution is ironic, as Taleb’s fundamental point is that they don’t properly weigh the “tail risks” at the extreme ends of the probability distribution for highly-disruptive events. Growing income inequality in the U.S. is heralded as a positive sign of an increasing number “of risk-takers crazy enough to have ideas of their own,” striving to create wealth and produce innovations that ultimately benefit all.

Taleb proposes a National Entrepreneur Day to celebrate risk-takers, especially the large number who fail and thereby point the way for others to succeed. Ruined entrepreneurs should be treated by society with almost the same reverence shown for dead soldiers. This shows how the antifragility of a system like the economy requires fragility in its parts — the same idea of learning from mistakes is why airplane safety improves with every crash.

via Philip Cross: Let’s celebrate risk | FP Comment | Financial Post.

Big Data Caveats, Front and Center – Information Management Blogs Article

Given that backdrop, Taleb’s misgivings on big data and analytics aren’t at all surprising: “We’re more fooled by noise than ever before, and it’s because of a nasty phenomenon called “big data.” With big data, researchers have brought cherry-picking to an industrial level … Modernity provides too many variables, but too little data per variable. So the spurious relationships grow much, much faster than real information … In other words: Big data may mean more information, but it also means more false information … In observational studies, statistical relationships are examined on the researcher’s computer. In double-blind cohort experiments, however, information is extracted in a way that mimics real life … This is not all bad news though: If such studies cannot be used to confirm, they can be effectively used to debunk — to tell us what’s wrong with a theory, not whether a theory is right.”

via Big Data Caveats, Front and Center – Information Management Blogs Article.

Antifragile Systems – IEEE Spectrum

For the first half of the last century, multipath phenomena were harmful. In radio frequency transmission they caused signal fading as different paths became variously additive or destructive. In wire-line transmission there were similar effects due to the nonuniform delay of signal frequency components, resulting in intersymbol interference and degraded speeds.
These multipath impairments were eventually alleviated through diversity and adaptive signal processing. Still, I think of these adaptive systems as robust, rather than truly antifragile. Perhaps, though, we crossed the line to antifragile with the advent of multiple-input/multiple-output MIMO systems, in which we deliberately send multiple copies of the signal from different antennas, hoping there will be multipath phenomena that with processing can be used to enhance system performance. MIMO [PDF] is now commonly used in IEEE 802.11n (Wi-Fi), and elsewhere.

via Antifragile Systems – IEEE Spectrum.

Fragility, Robustness and Antifragility – NNT Video – National Science Foundation

Audio

Everything in life has nonlinear responses, from medical treatments to project management, for both benefits and harm (medical and economic iatrogenics). The talk introduces the concept of fragility and antifragility and maps them to nonlinearities in life and decision making. The presentation is adapted from Dr. Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s recent book Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder.

THE ANTIFRAGILITY of SAYING “F*** YOU” TO FATE

THE ANTIFRAGILITY of SAYING “F*** YOU” TO FATE

The classical, mostly Stoic, idea is that what matters isn’t the random event itself, but how one responds to it, how one acts when hitting a snag. This was believed by scholars to make people “robust”, that is immune from adversity –since we can control how we respond to events. But the point is, once again, misHarvardified: the classical man was vastly more antifragile than academic & library rats want him to be. He was not withdrawn from the world, but above it. His principal asset was in how much courage and fortitude he put in front of circumstances, how he could say “f*** you” to fate, how he defied reversals of fortune.

If that’s the case, then he is not robust, as academics want him to be, but antifragile, as he wants as much disorder, adversity, and volatility to show off, to say “f*** you” to circumstances. If so, he is long volatility.

The good news is that it takes a certain training. When a certain fellow failed his election bid for the Italian presidency (with an embarassingly low number of votes), as the results of the ballots were being announced, one of the senators was heard telling another: “now watch this man and learn from him how to lose”.

via THE ANTIFRAGILITY… | Facebook.