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HatTip to Dave Lull

He denounces “empirically blind savants,” rejects the Gaussian Belle Curve fixation, and champions a kind of mathematical or empirical skepticism.  He advances the theory of Professor Raimund Popper, who states that predicting historical events is possible if one can predict technological innovations. In a sense, the author is a Contrarian, even an Iconoclast. The Black Swan scores as it rails against the herd mentality—our need to be part of the social pattern. This, the author argues, prevents us from predicting the next Black Swan. But can we be the rugged individuals that the author asks of us? Hardly so.

And next from Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Mark Blyth:

Complex systems that have artificially suppressed volatility tend to become extremely fragile, while at the same time exhibiting no visible risks. In fact, they tend to be too calm and exhibit minimal variability as silent risks accumulate beneath the surface. Although the stated intention of political leaders and economic policymakers is to stabilize the system by inhibiting fluctuations, the result tends to be the opposite.

Shared by JohnH

Please somebody record this!

Tonight, NYC, open to the public (though technical):
http://www.ieor.columbia.edu/seminars/financialengineering/2011-2012/fall/Taleb_N/seminar.html

A Map and Simple Heuristic to Detect Fragility, Antifragility, and Model Error
www.ieor.columbia.edu
SEAS Columbia University;

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HatTip to Dave Lull! Thanks Dave.

Notes from the talk

Taleb returns to his alma mater. This talk supercedes his previous work (e.g. Black Swan). His main points are:

• We don’t have a word for the opposite of fragile.
    Fragile systems have small probability of huge negative payoff
    Robust systems have consistent payoffs
    ? has a small probability of a large pay-off
• Fragile systems eventually fail. ? systems eventually come good.

Shared by JohnH

There’s a two for one ticket offer (if your hedge fund is listed in their publication) for $1,950.

Nassim Taleb, author of the bestselling book “The Black Swan”; Mitch Julis, co-founder of Canyon Capital Advisors; and Emmanuel “Manny” Roman, chief operating officer of Man Group, will offer the keynote addresses at the eighth annual AR Symposium, being held in New York on Wednesday and Thursday, November 2 and 3 at the New York Athletic Club. The speakers will address the pressing issues faced by investors today as economic uncertainty continues.