THE LEBANESE WAR THAT DOESN”T HAPPEN. Please show this your Lebanese friends who are scared to come visit their families in Lebanon.
The casualty rate from bombs in Lebanon over 2013 was ~2.5 per 100,000 people. It remains < a tenth of crime in NY in the 90s, <20th of crime in Brazil, etc. Outside bombs the homicide rate is very low.
Why?
Simply, a bomb is immediately noticed by the press, series of isolated crimes don’t make the newspaper. Antony Veich wrote: “in the case of Belfast the press usually stayed at The Europa, so the IRA took the bombs to the hotel… 28 times.” Sadly, people in 2014 make more irrational decisions than they did in 1900.
Visible risks are not really risks.
The other good news is that everyone is worried about “future risks”. The risks in Lebanon are not hidden. They are open for everyone to see, and nobody is wondering why in spite of all these incidents the war DID NOT happen? Every bomb that does not cause generalized warfare makes the system more robust to war (see Antifragility).
In 1975 the Palestinians had nothing to lose from civil war. Same with Syria. Today all parties have skin in the game, and are deep into real estate in Beirut
via THE LEBANESE WAR THAT DOESN”T HAPPEN…. – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.
There are many other good reasons for being scared of going to or staying in Lebanon.
Be scared of the death toll in traffic (over 500 casualties per year, in a rather small population with not so many cars per capita compared to the US). Be scared of the majority of poorly constructed buildings that would most likely not withstand any serious earthquake, and Lebanon does sit on a fault line. Be scared of the multiple daily electricity cuts that let people be stuck in elevators and food go bad in the hot summer months. Be scared of food poisoning. Be scared of pollution of any kind (littering, really bad air quality due to old cars and diesel generators everywhere – remember the electricity cuts -, tab water, …). Be scared of the medical system outside Beirut. Be scared of violation of your human rights, even more so in case you are not a heterosexual man. Be scared of… I guess you get my point. Even putting bombs aside, Lebanon is not a safe country to go to, and it is very reasonable to stay away from it as much as you can.