To figure out how well you will do 10 years from now relative to someone else, count your enemies, count his, and square the ratio.
(Heuristic)
via To figure out how well you will do 10… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
Our longer & near final version of the Precautionary Principle. The web is great. We posted our paper and kept improving it just from indirectly answering criticism on twitter by integrating them in the text, and naming BS ones and erroneous reasoning “fallacies” antifragility. Calling something a fallacy such as the potato fallacy, or the Russian roulette fallacy saves time and eliminates sophistry. The best is the “carpenter fallacy” which addresses the insults by biologists.We are not adding the math appendix as it intimidates people and might cause them to stop attacking our paper .
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8nhAlfIk3QIbGFzOXF5UUN3N2c/edit
via Our longer & near final version of the… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
Friends, recall that the draft of this paper on hypertension and overmedication by Spyros Makridakis was put for discussion here last year. It looks like the paper benefited from our comments on nonlinearity of ailment to treatment.
Hypertension: empirical evidence and implications in 2014 — Makridakis and DiNicolantonio 1 (1)…
High blood pressure (HBP) or hypertension (HTN) is one of the leading causes of cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality throughout the world. Despite this fact, there is widespread agreement that the treatment of HBP, over the last half century, has been a great achievement. However, after the r…
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via Friends, recall that the draft of this paper on… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
Stating “Pro-Israel” or “Pro-Palestinian” has an unethical unconditionality.You should say “I am pro-Fairness, pro-Justice” & revise ad hoc.
QUIZ of the day. Looking for exceptions to a rule.
People tend to write done according to the script of the religion. Serbians and Croats speak what can still be considered identical languages, but write it in Cyrillic (the Orthodox Serbs) or Latin (the Catholic Croats); You can tell which Slavic population is Catholic (or Protestant) by the use of Latin script (Polish, Czech,Slovac), and Orthodox at the Cyrillic (Bulgarian, Ukranians, Russians).
Hindi and Urdu are almost the same language (with now different accents) but Urdu, spoken by Muslims, is written in Arabic script. Turkish (pre-Ataturk), Persan, Kurdish, etc. use the Arabic script which came with Islam.
+ Jews write Aramaic using the Hebraic script, Christian using the Syriac (Estranghelo, Sirto) versions.
+ Maronites in Lebanon histotically spoke Levantine, which they wrote in Syriac script ; Arabophone Jews wrote Arabic using Hebrew letters, as it was the same alphabet (Maimonides wrote Guide to the Perplexed in Arabic “Judeo-Arabic”). Of course languages start to diverge once they are spoken by separate populations.
+ Now what is the exception? Which population? I found one counterexample.
via QUIZ of the day. Looking for exceptions to a… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb.