Monthly Archives: March 2011

Janet Tavakoli: Where Were Drama Pundits — Whitney, Taleb and Gasparino — When It Mattered?

I’m in receipt today of a collection of emails from Janet Tavakoli. You may recall some controversy around figures NNT was quoted to have said in a GQ article. I believe I’ve posted about this elsewhere on the blog. It’s from 2009. As you know, I have no relationship with Nassim Taleb, I’m simply collecting, in one place, information related to him and his ideas, for people who, like myself, find his thinking fascinating. I am a fan, certainly not a devotee. So in the interest of fairness, and perhaps also, to provide a place for Ms. Tavakoli to further make her case, I’m posting these links to various articles and documents she presents.

 

Taleb’s Stranded Swan? pdf TSF Commentary – June 3, 2009 By Janet Tavakoli

Taleb Kills $20 Billion Mythical Swan pdf

And via Janet Tavakoli: Where Were Drama Pundits — Whitney, Taleb and Gasparino — When It Mattered? | The Big Picture.
Taleb asserted the article was about philosophy, and one should ignore the numbers. The Times (among others) didn’t seem to see it that way. The Times’s original reference to GQ’s article focused on the erroneous $20 billion in trading gains months before Taleb made his correction in the face of media pressure. As for Taleb’s eventual explanation that the “$20 billion” referred to a “notional” amount of derivatives that produced between $250 to $500 million in gains, it raises further strategy questions.

 

 

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb – Reviews, Discussion, Bookclubs, Lists

 

Shared by JohnH

How about 300 pages of reader reviews, again at GoodReads.com

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable


The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
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973
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A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everythin…moreA black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nassim Nicholas Taleb – Reviews, Discussion, Bookclubs, Lists

Shared by JohnH

A LOT of reader reviews over at GoodReads.com

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
3.89 of 5 stars3.89 of 5 stars3.89 of 5 stars3.89 of 5 stars3.89 of 5 stars
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1,891 ratings
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319
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Finally in paperback, here is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. This book is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill – the markets – Fooled by Randomness is an irre…moreFinally in paperback, here is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. This book is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill – the markets – Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, iconoclastic, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining multidisciplinary exploration of one of the least understood forces in all of our lives

Nassim Taleb and his ego

Taleb deleted my comments, calling them nonsensical. So, I posted a new comment, telling others that Taleb apparently didn’t favor free speech, when his words were questioned. I knew there was a risk he would delete my comment, and he did. He also blocked me from posting further comments, with these word:

“Removed comments (and commenters) that are either nitpicking & diverting from the main argument or lacking in both rigor & elegance.”

All that glitters / The 'black swan' song of Nassim Taleb – Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News

Nassim Taleb - Bloomberg

Nassim Taleb

Photo by: Bloomberg

Taleb’s mathematics are complicated, but his conclusions are not:

1. Small probabilities are incomputable, and the smaller they are, the harder they are to calculate.

2. Present models lead small probabilities to be underestimated.

3. These models cause the likelihood of horrible events with small probability to be even more underestimated.

4. Because of globalization and the fact that all markets and countries are interlinked, the economic cost of natural catastrophe rises in a nonlinear fashion.

5. If a person calculates the probability of a rare event and his life depends on that rare event not happening – for instance, a nuclear meltdown – he’s already underestimating the probability of that event.