Monthly Archives: June 2010

New Statesman – “Black Swan” author adores David Cameron

Shared by JohnH

This is interesting, NNT is definitely backing Cameron. In a way, he’s throwing down the gauntlet for Obama and others to pay attention. But aligning with any politician is risky.

I’ve been a fan of Taleb ever since I saw him take apart the former IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff in this Newsnight discussion, in which he condemned economists for explaining events “after the fact” and for using “bogus measures of risk”.

His attacks on the bankers and the economics profession (“charlatans”, is how he refers to them in the interview), as well as on militant atheists (again, “charlatans”), are as intellectually robust as they are amusing and acerbic.

His Twitter feed is full of humour, wisdom and insight.

So I was astonished — and, as a long-standing critic of the cult of Cameron, frustrated! — to hear Taleb tell me that he regards David Cameron as “extraordinary”. Here’s the relevant exchange:

Here in the UK, the government is giving even more power to our central bank.
Your new government is at least conscious. You don’t have the Office of Management and Budget, which never forecasts anything right.

We’ll soon have an office of budget control.
But here they understand. David Cameron understands expert problems. He is extraordinary.

You have described him as “the best thing we have left on this planet”.
Exactly. I went to Washington, and the discourse had nothing to do with the real problem. And I thought, “He’s the only thing we have left.”

New Statesman – The NS Interview: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“Cameron is extraordinary. He’s the only thing we have left”

Many people believed that the banking crisis was unforeseeable, but you disagreed.
Well, I wrote in my book The Black Swan that the banking system was sitting on dynamite. I made bets on it because nobody was listening.

Your investments and books have made millions. Do people ask you for financial advice?
Yeah, but I don’t answer. That’s not my profession. I am a thinker. I like to use investment as a discipline.

In what way?
My motto is: “Never forecast anything unless you have your neck on the line.”

Is there one person you think is most to blame for the financial situation we find ourselves in?
There’s a collective, but I blame Ben Bernanke the most. He studied the Great Depression, so he should know better. Alan Greenspan is unskilled; you don’t take the unskilled seriously.

A new version of The Black Swan has just come out. What’s the theory behind it?
There are things we don’t understand – low-probability, high-impact events – and they hurt us. In the first version, I identified those things. Now, I’ve written about what to do next.

Taleb Calls Cameron ‘Extraordinary’ in New Statesman Interview – Bloomberg.com

June 17 (Bloomberg) — Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of
“The Black Swan,” said British Prime Minister David Cameron is
“the only thing we have left” to build a more robust economy,
in an interview with the New Statesman magazine.

Taleb, whose book is about how unforeseen events can roil
markets, said that Cameron is “extraordinary” and
“understands expert problems,” according to a transcript
released by the London-based magazine. By contrast, “Barack
Obama
doesn’t have a clue.”

PBS Video Taleb & Roubini Examine Potential for Longer Recession

Original Source, PBS Newshour (includes full transcript) HatTip to Dave Lull
Love the ‘Fat Tails’ info graphic. (Note, for some reason sometimes the embed
doesn’t show, if you don’t see a video window on this post, try refreshing the
page. Otherwise, watch it at the original source link above.)

 

Audio Only mp3

Nouriel Roubini also has a new book you might want to check out.

Black Swan Second Edition