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don’t worry if you don’t know “absolutely everything” before starting out | Gapingvoid

Shared by JohnH

Again, just seeing NNT’s ideas filter into the culture. Hugh Macleod is an artist and an entrepreneur and a frequent speaker at internet conferences. He blogs at http://gapingvoid.com/

To get some very lucid, hard­core pers­pec­tive on this, I recom­mend that you read Nassim’s Taleb’s exce­llent and highly rea­da­ble “Foo­led By Ran­dom­ness” (W. W. Nor­ton & Co., 2001). Nassim’s the­sis is chil­dishly sim­ple: That the big­ger the his­to­ri­cal event, the more ran­dom and unpre­dic­ta­ble the event was to begin with. Nobody saw 9/11, Pearl Har­bor, the assas­si­na­tions of JFK, Lin­coln or Arch­duke Franz Fer­di­nand, the Ato­mic Bombs being drop­ped on Japan, the 1923 collapse of the Ger­man Deutch­mark, the Bar­ba­rians sac­king Rome in 410 A.D., The Bubo­nic Pla­gue of the 1300’s, or Hitler’s 1941 inva­sion of the Soviet Union coming down the pike. Ditto with Detroit not seeing the threat of Japa­nese cars coming after 1945, or IBM not seeing the  threat posed in the 1970s by Mic­ro­soft and Apple. Everything just hap­pe­ned when it did, every­body was shoc­ked com­ple­tely, and every­body just had to deal with the MASSIVE con­se­quen­ces after­ward. Not too much fun at the time, but there was no other choice. Nas­sim makes a damn good case.

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