Monthly Archives: November 2009

Reassessing risk management – The Globe and Mail

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Nice recap of the HBR (paywall) article. From the Globe and Mail… Single comment is negative, uninformed and offensive.

With risk management under fire after the recent economic meltdown its adherents failed to prepare for, corporations are reassessing how to protect themselves in the days ahead. In Harvard Business Review, Nassim Taleb, author of the best seller The Black Swan: The Impact Of the Highly Improbable, and University of London’s Daniel Goldstein and Universa Investments’ Mark Spritznagel outline six mistakes that executives make in risk management:

TRYING TO PREDICT EXTREME EVENTS

We are inept at trying to predict unlikely events – the so-called “black swans” that Mr. Taleb highlighted – such as periodic financial crises or the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. By focusing attention on extreme scenarios, we neglect more likely possibilities, leaving us vulnerable.

Instead, companies should concentrate on the consequences of extreme events, as nuclear plants have done by shifting from trying to predict when an accident might occur to preparing for such a crisis. If a small but unexpected fall in demand could set your company reeling, rather than trying to predict the likelihood or when it might occur, pay attention instead to how it could withstand the impact.

Hedge Hub » Blog Archive » Hedge funds “a good thing”, says Taleb | Blogs |

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Regulators are going after the wrong target by trying to impose stricter rules on hedge funds, according to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, high-profile author of credit crisis hit The Black Swan.

rtxnzh6Taking a decidedly negative view of banks, Taleb told the Hedge 2009 conference in London today that a bank is essentially “a utility with a compensation scheme”, which the public has to bail out if it fails.

In contrast, “hedge funds are a good thing” (not a phrase that is heard very often).

With the possible exception of LTCM, taxpayers haven’t had to bail out hedge funds which,

The Six Mistakes Executives Make in Risk Management – Harvard Business Publishing

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They want $6.50 for the pdf.

by Nassim N. Taleb, Daniel G. Goldstein, Mark W. Spitznagel

6 pages. Publication date: Oct 01, 2009. Prod. #: R0910G-PDF-ENG

Taleb (who wrote the best-selling books Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan) and his coauthors argue that conventional risk-management textbooks don’t prepare us for the real world. For instance, no forecasting model predicted the impact of the current economic crisis. Managers make six common mistakes when confronting risk: They try to anticipate extreme events, they study the past for guidance, they disregard advice about what not to do, they use standard deviations to measure risk, they fail to recognize that mathematical equivalents can be psychologically different, and they believe there’s no room for redundancy when it comes to efficiency. Companies that ignore Black Swan (low-probability, high-impact) events will go under. But instead of trying to anticipate them, managers should reduce their companies’ overall vulnerability.

Of all the management tasks that were bungled in the period leading up to the global recession of 2008–2009, none was bungled more egregiously than the management of risk. This HBR Spotlight attempts to untangle the reasons that major systemic failures occurred, and to pin down some lessons for leaders and managers in the future.

Taleb Says ‘Fuzzy’ Regulation Works Better Than Clear-Cut Rules – Bloomberg.com

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Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) — Nassim Taleb, author of “The BlackSwan,” said “fuzzy” regulations are better than clear-cutrules in preventing future financial crises.

“People game the system because they know the ropes,”Taleb told a group of hedge fund traders in London. “The moreregulations you have, the more you make lawyers and derivativestraders rich.”

Black swans, debt, risk and mother nature-NassimTaleb & David Cameron 2009

David Cameron in Conversation with Nassim Taleb from The RSA on FORA.tv

(Click arrow to play audio) Audio only Nassim Taleb in conversation with UK Conservative party leader David Cameron. They discuss how Black Swan thinking can be applied…

From The Guardian’s take on the talk.

The remarks by Taleb, the conservative author of the book Black Swan, were made during an appearance with Cameron at the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (RSA) on Tuesday. Labour attacked Cameron, who says Taleb’s work confirms his own prejudices, because the “eccentric” academic says economic crashes are a good thing. In some of his most provocative remarks at his appearance with Cameron, the Lebanese-American academic criticised Obama for increasing his taxes as he harked back to Darwin’s theory of evolution. “I happen to do OK. I am paying more taxes,” Taleb said. “How can you have evolution if those who do the right thing have to finance those who did the wrong thing? If you are making money in 2009 – that means you have a robust business in the cycle – you are paying more taxes. If you are losing money in 2009 you get a bigger tax break. It is the opposite of everything I believe in.” Taleb has become a conservative folk hero following the success of his book, which examines the phenomena of “Black Swans” or “low-probability, high-impact events” that can have a major impact on the world. via David Cameron’s guru Nassim Nicholas Taleb says rich should not pay more tax to help the poor | Politics | The Guardian.