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Tag Archives: Silent Risk

Silent Risk, Pascal’s Wager, Baal, Skin In the Game, Trump, Clinton-Malmaison, Gary Ruskin, Popper

AN INVITATION TO CONTRIBUTE (Facebook) Friends, I promised to deliver in the next few hours a discussion of the most neglected fragilities and the most overestimated risks. We can tell fragility when we see it… but we first need to look at it. I won’t say for now what I came up with but would […]

This is a one-page answer as the journalist-passing-for-scientist Pinker…

This is a one-page answer as the journalist-passing-for-scientist Pinker has been working the press to show that violence has “dropped” since 1945, citing political science bloggers innocent of fat tails, who seem clueless about the difference between data and information. How to separate anecdote from evidence, sampling error from truth, journalism from science? Well there […]

Finally, a Tablet version of SILENT RISK

Finally, a Tablet version of SILENT RISK. via Nassim NicholنTaleb on Twitter: “Finally, a Tablet version of SILENT RISK.”.

Discussion in SILENT RISK

Discussion in SILENT RISK about the properties of currency devaluations (refining some points in Dynamic Heding), and why this is as much a sucker trap today as it used to be years ago, if not more. via Timeline Photos – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook.

An introduction for Silent Risk…

An introduction for Silent Risk. Presenting the difference between verbalistic description of probabilistic events and the true rigorous (contractual or mathematical) one. We really don’t know what we are talking about when we talk about probability. Except, of course, firefighters. Adding (p 55) a definition of a Charlatan. Why verbalistic “predictions” (and prediction markets) are […]