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Lebanese, Journalists, Dunning Kruger, New Jersey, Thaler, Questions, Donaldo, Tetlock, Probability, Orwell | Twitter


@nntaleb Yuuuuge point by Roger Makhlouf: We don’t quite and never had “ص”, “ض”, “ط” in Lebanese. It is just the “Basta aleph” Permalink 4:06 PM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb One see an explanation to the statement by Jelinek: “when you fire a linguist, speech recognition improves”. Permalink 2:07 PM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Another solution to the marriage problem (added derivation for n \to \infty). Somehow 1/e pops up where you never expected it. Permalink 10:57 AM – 7 Jan 2018

@rjs This is what I love about Twitter. @nntaleb shared a video on classifying languages with dimensional reduction (PCA) instead of pre-cut categories. The task of escaping categories is pervasive. Eg is IKEA a furniture store; is Basecamp project mangement?   Permalink 9:41 AM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Explaining most of the problems   Permalink 8:47 AM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb A very useful heuristic, a potent filter: When someone criticizes you, train to immediately ask yourself: “Would I rather be him/her, or I’d rather be me?” before taking the remark at face value. It works wonders. #SkinintheGame Permalink 8:11 AM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 4) The heuristic is as follows: You know someone will side with Trump, not his detractor, REGARDLESS OF THE ARGUMENT, if the person would rather be Trump when he/she grows up than the detractor. Gabish?   Permalink 6:17 AM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Except when n=1 matters (large deviation in a Fat Tailed domain).   Permalink 6:12 AM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) I mean that when it’s cold, you try to do things to just stay warm (higher entropy), when it’s hot you try to be as inactive as possible (min entropy). And when you are Mediterranean you cheat with spezzatura. Permalink 6:07 AM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb CONJECTURE du jour: When I first encountered ENTROPY, years ago, it hit me that: + In cold countries, civilizations are built to maximize entropy, + In hot ones, civilizations are built to minimize entropy, + the Med, uniquely, does both or neither. (this morning, in Celsius) Permalink 5:35 AM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Answering @VergilDen Permalink 5:29 AM – 7 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The discussion that helped finish my book. We need a second @econtalk on religion, rationality & risk bearing. Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Work, Slavery, the Minority Rule, and Skin in the Game | EconTalk | Library of Economics and Liberty   Permalink 4:03 PM – 6 Jan 2018

@mikeandallie Today’s blog: Sharing Markov chains and the “COVFEFE” problem with kids:   #math #mathchat Permalink 1:59 PM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 3) Commentary by anyone who a) ruled out Trump ‘s election, b) thought mahket wd collapse if Trump elected c) thought Trump wd be impeached within 1y should be ignored. Can only use Krugman-style IYIS is Uber drivers or something requiring low understanding. Permalink 1:58 PM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 2) In other words, if reality continously delivers something that doesn’t “make sense” to you, it is *you* that you need to worry about. Permalink 11:01 AM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 1) When a collection of journos getting around minimum wage call someone consistently successful “an idiot”, one is entitled to invoke Wittgenstein’s ruler: you don’t just use a ruler to measure the table, but the table to measure the ruler. (in Fooled by Randomness) Permalink 10:58 AM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I am declaring email bankruptcy. Starting from scratch. I have >2000 unread emails (from senders I don’t know). Permalink 7:50 AM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Another: is showing off a departure from virtue? Permalink 7:36 AM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Another question Permalink 7:27 AM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Never publicly refuse an award. Permalink 7:05 AM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb This may clear up that linguistic classifications, while useful in a domain, are too binary for cultural distances. Permalink 6:35 AM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Because people of courage (which includes Nader) are not after awards.   Permalink 6:16 AM – 6 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Squid ink. Permalink 6:07 PM – 5 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath The marriage problem   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:19 PM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb typo: I meant independent orthogonal components (PC) not PCAs Permalink 11:26 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The way to look at languages… Permalink 10:47 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Things I learned in 2017 1) Genetics: thet need a norm corrector for PCA maps. Similar to finance with STD->MAD. Permalink 6:54 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb and Ukraine! Permalink 6:38 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb And Georgia! Permalink 6:17 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Gives the exact same result as a computer putting n letters in n envelopes! (the derangement problem) @CutTheKnotMath   Permalink 5:29 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Friends into probability: this is very interesting thread as it gives totally counterintuitive results. Also same results as the derangement problem.   Permalink 5:25 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Second version of my article. Included among other things some miscategorization by Semitic linguistists.   Permalink 5:08 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Merry Christmas to my Armenian, Russian, and other nonGreek Orthodox friends. Permalink 5:03 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Linguists try to model on geneticists, but geneticists rely ONLY on independent PCAs. This idiot van Putten invoked Dunning-Kruger when he is unknowingly stepping on MY discipline, statistics. Permalink 4:55 AM – 5 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Never trust a journalist, even if she is your mother.   Permalink 1:42 PM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 15) And that abstract language nobody has seen called “proto-Arabic” is has to have Arabic in it , not Zwinglob, Schwing, or some other less offensive name, which would have made framing less effective. Permalink 12:06 PM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 14) The other politically motivated aspect of the discussion lies in adding “Arabic” as a designation (even if true): Lebanese “Arabic” not Lebanese “Semitic”,and not: Croatian Slavic, Ukrainian Slavic, Catalan Spanish, Norwegian Germanic, Russian Germanic…. Permalink 12:04 PM – 4 Jan 2018

@BrankoMilan So in Iran, Internet works to undermine the corrupt rulers. But in the US, internet works to elect Trump. Very interesting “liberal” logic. Permalink 9:20 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb A good predictor is someone who knows what not to predict. Permalink 8:51 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb A good predictor is someone who knows *what* to predict. Permalink 8:33 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@u_vakalate @nntaleb Sowell echoing #IYI concentration in non-#SITG environments?   Permalink 7:00 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Pronounciation is often areal diffusion (the French “r” doesn’t make it German) Permalink 6:58 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 13) Here @lameensouag nitpicking my list based on g->j, s<-> sh, k->kh, etc. pronounciations. But we say Yesou3 for Yeshou3 (Jesus) though from Aramaic (Arabic is 3issa), Juwwa from Aram. bgaw, etc. It would be classifying Mod. Hebrew as Germanic because w->v, 7->ch, p->ph. Permalink 6:19 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 12) This anachronism is paralleled by another “scholar” (@stephenniem supporter of him) who argued w/a straight face that we can call Islamic discoveries those by countries before Islam (“Islamic” discoveries by Ancient Egyptians, Asia Minor Greeks)   Permalink 5:52 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 11) So not even basic scientific evidential reasoning is needed, but just mere logic. Semitic linguistics is in need to adult supervision.   Permalink 4:01 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@Macaulayputra “Proto-Arabic”, along with “proto-Indo-European” appear to be the linguistic equivalent of non-existent “ether”. Foam used to arbitrarily fill in gaps in the respective theories. @bennedose Permalink 3:16 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 10) Keeps digging: defines some hypothetical language (never written) as Arabic based on cherry-picked rules, then classifies into it in a circular way. This plus lack of awareness of notion of “evidence” makes Semitic linguistics political propaganda.   Permalink 3:16 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@CutTheKnotMath The coffee shop game   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 3:09 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 9) Mr Dunning-Kruger needs to learn some Hebrew   Permalink 3:09 AM – 4 Jan 2018

@VogonPoem This is not just a problem with Semitic linguistics, but with linguistics in general. 1) Too many sound-change laws made up on the fly 2) No evidence to support claims 3) Proto-languages cooked up with insufficient data points The entire PIE tree is suspect. Cc @bennedose   Permalink 7:46 PM – 3 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 8) PS- Moral of the story: if you even invoke the “Dunning Kruger effect” against someone as a way to degrade his knowledge of the subject matter, expect yours to be degraded. Permalink 6:19 PM – 3 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 7) This is it for now as Mr Marijn van Putten @phoenixnl no doubt needs to be establish accordance w/”scientific standards” first, his points later in accordance with rules of evidence. In other words, no BS vending. If he can. Good night, לילה טוב Permalink 6:11 PM – 3 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 6) Finally, as one can see Semitic linguistics is plagued with elementary rigor. Establishing intelligibility betw. Leb and Arabic doesn’t flow from ad nauseam repetition, but something called EVIDENCE. And distinguising languages on the bases of 2-5 rules is called “fitting” Permalink 6:08 PM – 3 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 5) So main argument Leb comes from some abstract unseen “proto-Arabic” is the commonality of a negation “ma” which appears to be Indo-European (Anatolian?). Is it me or a strong, dizzing smell of BS Vending? (* ma is also in Bibilical Heb, but ignore.)   Permalink 6:06 PM – 3 Jan 2018

@nntaleb 4) Even low-IQ Arabists throw their main arguments first *for effect* so I guess retracting it … Other main argument is ad hocness of “varieties” some of which will amuse us next, in (5)   Permalink 6:03 PM – 3 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The point is that 1) is such a definition of dialect in use? 2) is it narrow jargon? 3) it is BS vending? Permalink 3:26 PM – 3 Jan 2018

@nntaleb So I assume that critique fails minimum sci. standards 1) @phoenixnl: “If Lebanese is a dialect of classical Arabic, classical Arabic is also a dialect of Lebanese.” (they aren’t mutually intelligible) 2) Ad hoc (call “proto-Arabic” whateveryoulike)   Permalink 3:05 PM – 3 Jan 2018

@nntaleb The slow-thinking people of “prediction markets” forget we have the real thing called called financial markets, in which one receives an “organic payoff”. Just another instance where academia is decades even centuries behind practice.   Permalink 8:23 AM – 3 Jan 2018

@profnfenton We have explained some other reasons why this use of statistics does NOT ‘highlight misunderstandings of risk’ and ‘illuminate the bigger picture’ as claimed by @RoyalStatSoc See:   Permalink 6:35 AM – 3 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Answers to this piece can help understand why Arabism has been such a glorious project, or why some countries resist economic & intellectual development. Permalink 10:12 AM – 2 Jan 2018

@nntaleb We need some comments by @QifaNabki & by the clown & Arabist @KarlreMarks Permalink 9:16 AM – 2 Jan 2018

@nntaleb   Permalink 7:07 AM – 2 Jan 2018

@Skeptical_Arab Saddest thing I’ve read this year   Permalink 6:53 AM – 2 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Actually the 3 smartest things I did in 2017 were in New Jersey. Once to meet @CutTheKnotMath Once to meet @HarryDCrane and participate in his probability workshop Once to eat auntie anne’s pretzel dogs (next favorite thing after squid ink). Permalink 6:34 AM – 2 Jan 2018

@nntaleb I just published “No, Lebanese is not a ‘dialect’ of Arabic”   Permalink 5:36 AM – 2 Jan 2018

@Extrachelle I deleted it cz I didn’t want to hurt psychologists feelings Permalink 3:47 PM – 1 Jan 2018

@nntaleb This fellow is not uncommon. People from Turkic republics are brainwashed to fughedaboud Armenian/Syriac genocides, ethnic cleansing of Greeks, and treatment of Kurds.   Permalink 7:51 AM – 1 Jan 2018

@tripoli187 True people don’t realise it was Turkish nationalist secularist known as the “young Turks” that began the killings on Armenians etc not the traditional religious ottomans Permalink 6:58 AM – 1 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Exactly. Thaler doesn’t know that “mental accounting” is needed for convexity of payoffs, that in a complex domain aggregate rationality diff from indiv. But he knows that myopic loss aversion doesn’t work under fat tails, that ecological effects need to be integrated. Permalink 5:56 AM – 1 Jan 2018

@nntaleb There are not “incomplete”, they give results BACKWARDS. Permalink 5:44 AM – 1 Jan 2018

@nntaleb When you try to sell 2-dimensional “solutions” to a deeper >3-D problem, and trying to make it pass for science, Mr Thaler @r_thaler, it is not called “idiot”, it is not called “unrigorous”, it is not called “distortion”. It is simply called bullshit vending. Permalink 5:38 AM – 1 Jan 2018

@nntaleb Say it the way it is.   Permalink 5:02 AM – 1 Jan 2018

@nntaleb One warning: Secularization in Turkey came with extreme, murderous nationalism. When you abruptly remove religion, you get a lot of stuff: the mind doesn’t like a vacuum. #Iran Permalink 2:55 AM – 1 Jan 2018

@nntaleb FAT TONY 101: In real world ecologies, questions convey some information about the answer/context. Nobody asks you a random question. But the main problem is not there: providing reduced static approaches to dynamic decisions, such as survival probability.   Permalink 12:00 PM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb FAT TONY 101: In real world ecologies, questions convey some information about the answer/context. Nobody asks you a random question. But the main problem is not there: providing reduced static approaches to dynamic decisions, such as survival probability.   Permalink 12:00 PM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb So from coments it looks more like regimes give concessions BECAUSE they are doomed anyway. More of a signal. Permalink 10:59 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@RonPaulInstitut US foreign policy in a nutshell – bipartisan interventionism: Permalink 8:22 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb SPECULATION: A previously inflexible regime is doomed when it starts giving *partial* concessions/reform. + Gorbachev + Iranian (1st) rev. + Russian rev. + Assad’s release of Islamist prisoners + French rev. More examples? Counteramples? Permalink 7:55 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb I automatically block: 1) Sophists 2) Serial nitpickers –they kill dialogue by diverting it 3) Lobbyists (Monsanto, think tanks funded by Saudi Barbaria) 4) Pple who answer “stick to your discipline” instead of counterargument 5) Someone abusing language w/”racist”, “nazi”, etc. Permalink 6:17 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Answering another Twitter Q. Permalink 6:10 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Answering a Twitter fellow. Permalink 6:04 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 3) This is an application of the minority rule: a small minority gives the accent. Permalink 3:39 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 2) I am writing in Levantine and realized there is a clustering into 2 “formal” accents, Beirut and Damascus. Permalink 3:29 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb SECULATIVE PHILOLOGY DUJOUR Language follow prestige & by mimicry take accent of dominant class. Hebrew: Ashkenazi accent (stripped of gutturals). Even young Seph use it. Leb: now Beirut upper class. Syria: most the “Shami” Damascus accent. French (Touraine=>Paris), Italian… Permalink 3:20 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@nntaleb En vente aujourd’hui   Permalink 2:28 AM – 31 Dec 2017

@jeitoapp “There’s no cost in thinking Donald Trump is an incompetent buffoon until you have to run against him” @nntaleb @ScottAdamsSays   Permalink 4:52 PM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 8 years left.   Permalink 2:18 PM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Jouer sa peau, (en francais)   Permalink 1:39 PM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Questio 4. Can you exchange social graces with a lobbyist, or an employee of a foreign funded think tank, say the @MiddleEastInst ? Permalink 10:20 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Questio 3. Should universities help their students by harming the collective? Permalink 9:38 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb I am very, very confused with Donaldo’s foreign policy. That, along with the scaling down of the State Dept, is the only recent piece of good news.   Permalink 9:25 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Compiling cases for the application of skin in the game. Questions welcome. Permalink 7:32 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 4) All is not GEOPOLITICS. Local problems are solved by locals.   Permalink 6:42 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 3) This said, that while Saudi Arabian citizens (like Egypt) are obsessively antiWest (& antisemitic) while their government is friendly to West/Israel, the reverse is true for Iran. Permalink 6:33 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 2) Iran is mostly focused on local geopolitics, support of Shiites in area. Saudi Barbaria spreads intolerant Salafism in Europe, Asia, everywhere, funding terrorisms worldwide & financing headcutters. Plus DIRECTLY exterminating Christians & Alawis in Syria, Copts in Egypt, Permalink 6:28 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb We all agree theocracies are incompatible with Western values, but Iran does not fund “terrorism” abroad/ spread “madrassah” in Europe & Asia, rather “friendly” Saudi Barbaria. How many of the attacks in West were done by Shiites?   Permalink 5:28 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DU JOUR (Closing on some open problems): The “ma” in Western Levantine (“ma fi”) ~ always used for negation does not appear to come from Arabic (where it is rare, compared to “la”), but a relic from a more ancient, local root, possibly Indo European.   Permalink 4:03 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@CharlesLogan @CutTheKnotMath had you ever seen this problem before? A computer puts n letters randomly into n envelopes. Find the probability that at least one of the letters reaches its intended destination. Find the limit when n tends to infinity. Permalink 2:51 AM – 30 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 5) Again I am NOT proposing a solution, just positing an ENIGMA, so please no overinterpretation. Things can be random, papers may be disproved, ideas can be refreshed, researchers might be stretching for pub. But it is strange to find 2 gnostic creeds so far apart. Gabish? Permalink 12:12 PM – 29 Dec 2017

@oldlevantine Rarely have @DanielPipes’ prognostications led astray: Always unsentimental, always frightening & premonitory, but always spot on. Yesterday the #Assyrian and #ArmenianGenocide, now the #Copts; #Maronites #Jews & others will follow. Middle East emptied of its #FirstNations. Permalink 11:01 AM – 29 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Which is why spreading sources of pollution brings portfolio effects.   Permalink 10:30 AM – 29 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 4) Something started buzzing in my head when, upon visiting Ireland, I surprised myself by describing the people as “blond Mediterraneans”. Then I saw in a bookstore a book on Druids… Permalink 8:55 AM – 29 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 3/ When you read “Middle East”, ignore, it’s a mistake common in papers bef 2015. Means East Med (Anatolia/Levant). Another strangeness is the Galatians who were Celts in Asia Minor (St Paul to the Galatians). Finally @financequant thinks like an Anatolian Greek. Permalink 8:17 AM – 29 Dec 2017

@nntaleb You need an agggggressive mind like @holland_tom for such enigmas. Permalink 8:12 AM – 29 Dec 2017

@nntaleb ENIGMA DU JOUR: Why do the Irish & Druze have similar creed: + Only Druids/Sheikh 3aql initiated to mysteries + Belief in reincarnation + Gnosticism + Other similarities Now genetics show both gene flow Anatolia => Ireland & Anatolian origin of Druze. Permalink 8:10 AM – 29 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Because people would also suddenly feel the urge to lend (& take the risk) without reward. Salafism attracts people with severe DEFECT of reasoning.   Permalink 5:44 AM – 29 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Politics right-left may cancel out. But the biggest problem is corporates targeting one individual, s. a. Monsanto et al. (Ketchum) harrassing me since my precautionary principle, with an organized smear campaign. I am antifragile, other people aren’t.   Permalink 4:51 AM – 29 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Last summer, after rereading my Lindy chapter, to be consistent with my Skin in the Game principle, I threw away almost ALL my social science & books written by recent academics, except for 80% of history & 100% mathematical subjects. 4 carloads of books. (Eco in was salvaged) Permalink 1:09 PM – 28 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath A cyclic inequality on unit interval   #FigureThat #math #algebra #inequality ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 12:19 PM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb LINDY at WORK: The general idea is to work in the presence of real texts (mostly in the original) that remind you of Lindy, instead of the jelly compotte of academic wailing. Not a single line of the SITG was written in the “other” library with contemporary marmelade. Permalink 12:08 PM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb and Spanish. Permalink 9:24 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb By my writing desk: Books in Aramaic, Syriac, Hebrew, Arabic, French, Greek, Latin, (Medieval) Italian, English, randomly arranged. Permalink 9:23 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Dear @BretWeinstein, my friend. If you use the “listen, I have the same values as you, I am not a Nazi” route, they will destroy you. If you call them “repressive neoStalist fake-lib sexist racist crap” (why they are), they will cower. Gabish?   Permalink 8:21 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb No, books will not make you understand Trump. Told an interviewer: “The man-with-a-library in me fails to understand Trump. The souk trader in me has no trouble understanding Trump”.   via @voxdotcom Permalink 7:45 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The more complex the world, the less you can grasp it from academic studies. Permalink 6:37 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb More lessons dujour: When you attack someone in person, do not BS about “imaginary” opponents When you are playing the academic game, don’t claim “pursuit of truth”, just lay low. PS: Nonbinary aspect of realworld proba publ. in Dynamic Hedging, 1997.   Permalink 6:33 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Hon xam jarreb “Lebanese Language Institute” hayyem kamen.   Permalink 4:41 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 3am tarjem “Bed of Procrustes” 3al lébnéné (kin3ané/finy2é jdid). Fi shwayy ghalat (l “el” lezem tkun “l” mitlel finy2é) Permalink 4:39 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Probability in the Real World Lesson 101. Permalink 4:23 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Lesson of the day: If you want to portray yours truly as “loud HENCE wrong”, better 1) know what you are talking about, 2) not buzzword using big names like Bernoulli, & 3) not make elementary mistakes about probability.   Permalink 3:32 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Mush l 7ruf l3arabiyyé, bass l latiné bidoun l s3oubé. Permalink 3:25 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Complication/addition of fonts will fail. Sta3mel l 7ruf l 3adiyyé iza baddak l3alam yiktbo fiya.   Permalink 3:14 AM – 28 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Why verbal forecasting doesn’t work in the real world. Permalink 6:13 PM – 27 Dec 2017

@spartanwarriors #Greece – An imposing statue in Sparta of King Leonidas, who was approximately 60 years old when he died defending the pass of Thermopylae in 480 BC. (Photo: Anastasios Michalopulos) Permalink 3:49 PM – 27 Dec 2017

@mikeandallie (3/3) I am amazed by the sheer amount of fantastic math ideas that people share on twitter. I also appreciate the the efforts that people make to make complicated or new math accessible and easy (or at least easier) to understand for the masses. Excited for more in 2018. Permalink 3:06 PM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Goat cheese camembert & other chevres, a Christmas gift from @Idyllfarms Permalink 2:04 PM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Permalink 1:08 PM – 27 Dec 2017

@oldlevantine Dear Mr. Zogby, with all due respect, none of those foods you call “Arab” are “Arab.” There were Levantines, among them Jews, partaking of those foods millennia before exogenous Arabs expropriated them. Wanna talk about cultural genocide? Let’s start with your vaunted Arabs.   Permalink 12:24 PM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Why real world exposures CANNOT be described in words that map to a single probability Permalink 11:32 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb This might educate your Mr Tetlock on probability & why the utility framework doesn’t work under inseparabilities.   Permalink 11:25 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Mr Tetlock should have shown the full thread, including this, not just a pic. Clearly it is beyond “utilility”. Probability is a kernel not a discrete value.   Permalink 11:14 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 4) A reader got it:   Permalink 9:34 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb In simple words, why just talking abt probability without payoff is BS: You would never ride in a plane with a 1% probability of crash (~no pilot/flight attendant would be alive at .001%), but you would accept a scientific result that is 1% false. Permalink 9:16 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath Quadratic Inequalities on [-1,1]   #math #algebra Thanks to @DMarghi ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 8:48 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 2) SILENT RISK: Probability is a kernel for decision, not an end product. Can’t discuss a kernel on its own. Permalink 7:22 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 1) This is the kind of BS about probability I spent my life fighting. Probability is meaningless unless one attaches a payoff/consequence. Verbalistic “assessments” include severity adjustments. INCERTO books sold 4.5 million copies & pple still make this mistake.   Permalink 7:17 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Koura valley where Byzantine garrisons were posted, using @PZalloua ‘s database. Permalink 4:52 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Actually, Salibi doubts Douahi’s account using my argument that the population of Amioun & Koura remained Greek-Orthodox to this day. (The problem with Salibi is elsewhere) Permalink 4:38 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 3) Most historical accounts are by Maronite bishop Stephanos Douaihi or the historian Kamal Salibi. Both are fabrications –like most of what Salibi wrote. Permalink 3:35 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 2) Another myth: the Maronites “won” the battle of Amioun. They were more likely pushed up Mount Leb. There is not a single Maronite church and not one Maronite family originating from the 15km Koura( χώρα) area betw Amioun & the Med. The border has not changed in 1200 years. Permalink 3:33 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 1) HISTORICAL DEBUNKING DUJOUR We are told Arabs invaded the Levant in 636. How did Byzantines battle Maronites in Amioun in 694? Truth is that most of the tension in coastal N. Levant was betw. Syrian-Greeks & Syriacs, not between them & Arabs. Arabs didn’t care abt. area. Permalink 3:21 AM – 27 Dec 2017

@nntaleb For Christmas bought a v. Insightful book by my favorite twitter enemy @davidgraeber Permalink 3:27 PM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 2) Being attacked by 2 similar crowds: 1) Neo-Nazi “white” (butter) supremacists using the “Aryan” theory to downgrade Meds (except those who fit “classical civilization”) 2)”Pol correct” rewriters of history s.a. @wmarybeard binarizing Meds and Subsaharans in same “other” group Permalink 2:28 PM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Truth is that the “Europeans” (butter, not olive oil) never had a “RE-naissance”. They just had a naissance 600 y ago. The Nazis (& others bef) manufactured “Aryan” continuity linking themselves to the ancient world. Meanwhile the Meds took a nap (& still half-sleeping).   Permalink 12:06 PM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The problem can be solved very simply longhand but here is the more formal solution with code. Permalink 10:55 AM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb And these posts about Meds and fake chromoclassification by identity warriors keep showing in my feed from retweets. Basically if one puts BS on twitter (a public forum), you can expect debunking. Twitter is not just a place for motivational marmelades. Gabish? Permalink 10:25 AM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb For those who persist in separating Greeks “white” from Western Asians (now “nonwhite”), some news for you. Permalink 10:01 AM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Another ignorant who doesn’t get that the Meds (Aristotle, etc.) were not Northern Europeans.   Permalink 9:06 AM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Identity pple who chromoclassify are largely intellectually challenged.   Permalink 9:03 AM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR: You type random numbers on your (sturdy) phone in sequence; how many numbers are you expected to push before you obtain the remarkable “Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison number”, that is 47246?   Permalink 8:43 AM – 26 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath An integral identity #FigureThat #math #algebra #calculus Permalink 8:17 AM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb “Assuming” oil goes up… Saudi Barbaria is even more fragile than I thought.   Permalink 7:30 AM – 26 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 6) My first reaction to Trump is the same as Nero’s to Fat Tony: it takes some effort for an intellectual to warm up to like people who don’t read/respect books. (from Antifragile) Permalink 4:14 AM – 26 Dec 2017

@RGumby14 .@nntaleb check out this gift my gf got me for Christmas. She’s hoping I one day make it as a flaneur. #antifragile Permalink 8:23 PM – 25 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 5) Even if Trump became suddenly left-wing, he would still be hated by the Intellektchuals who would drum up arguments. Why? They obsessively hate @realDonaldTrump because he is both totally non-intellectual and doesn’t hide it. He makes intellktchuals feel irrelevant. Permalink 2:55 PM – 25 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The imbecile generalizes from single instances: he cites ONE book hence he knows ONE book. We shoud subject people in humanities to IQ tests.   Permalink 2:32 PM – 25 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 4) The idea of #skininthegame is that people judged by reality and P/L, instead of peers or supervisors, are vastly more open-minded. Permalink 1:05 PM – 25 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 3) Employed intellectuals, professional academics, and other slaves are rarely in love with thought & ideas. They are primarily in love with Orthodoxy. Permalink 12:40 PM – 25 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Time to start a mass reconversion of Western Syria (particularly urban areas) to Greek Orthodoxy? Remember that the New Testament was written in the (bad) Greek of Syria. With the advantage that you can wear jeans in GrecoSyrian churches.   Permalink 6:04 AM – 25 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Note on this Christmas day that the Leb “zi7” (as opposed to Maltese Linea, Arabic “5att) comes from Aramaic the language of Christ. Permalink 5:53 AM – 25 Dec 2017

@SamuelGWalters Holy mackerel, look what I found by accident. (Just came up during my calculations. Don’t yet have a proof.) #math #fun Permalink 11:35 PM – 24 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath An Easy Cyclic Inequality And a Remark   #FigureThat #math #inequality ” target=”_blank”>″> Permalink 10:49 AM – 20 Dec 2017

@dukecrawford #attention is the petroleum of our time. Attention is refined by ignoring things that are irrelevant. Avoiding false patterns. @nntaleb Permalink 8:37 AM – 20 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Does someone understand this discrepancy between the formal document and the press on max tax rate (37% vs 38.5%) ?   ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 7:26 AM – 20 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Attention Data Scientists: the M4 competition is Open. The Makridakis Competitions address out of sample performance. M1, M2 & M3 revealed how complex methods are outformed by simpler ones (themselves poor). Permalink 6:37 AM – 20 Dec 2017

@nntaleb THINK TANK ETHICS Paul Salem is one of those Ivy-Lea IYIs who may have started out well-intentioned but never did anything except thinktank crap, now find themselves financially strapped in their 50s. So they prostitute themselves to Gulf Arabs to pay bills. They come cheap. Permalink 4:44 AM – 20 Dec 2017

@XFaure “Virtue is what you do when nobody is watching. The rest is marketing” @nntaleb   Permalink 12:29 AM – 20 Dec 2017

@jeitoapp “there’s no cost of thinking a bull is a cow, until you have to milk it” #SkinInTheGame @nntaleb Permalink 11:54 PM – 19 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Econs: In the age of social media, you can’t keep selling BS with pseudo-mathematics/citation ring/circular vetting with impunity. Eventually a bubble bursts. Permalink 7:04 AM – 19 Dec 2017

@nntaleb This is the kind of bullshit delivered by a BSchool “Associate Dean”. Dangerous BS. Saying “data has fat tails” YET using ordinary MLE estimators, accepting modern portfolio theory, calculating CVaR, regressions, doing business as usual, is INCOHERENT.   Permalink 6:22 AM – 19 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Never met an economist who “knows” statistics. Requires understanding Fat Tails since ~ALL econ variables are fat tailed.   Permalink 5:57 AM – 19 Dec 2017

@rhughesjones Heading to see @nntaleb – An Evening with Nassim Nicholas Taleb, if anyone else fancies it?   Permalink 12:45 AM – 19 Dec 2017

@nntaleb This is not to say business schools are useless: what you learn is either on your own or in the drinking parties. Permalink 3:25 PM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb The only thing you can learn from a business school professor is how to become a business school professor. Permalink 3:06 PM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb If I understand things well, the current situation is untenable: there would be, in the future, HUGE economic advantages for being a eunuch. Megan @asymmetricinfo has too much mental clarity for Bloomberg Views.   Permalink 1:51 PM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Thank you Rand Paul for nudging into the direction.   Permalink 1:34 PM – 18 Dec 2017

@charlesamadeus .@nntaleb Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. (2 hours into Anti-fragile). Permalink 1:32 PM – 18 Dec 2017

@yvespatte Bouclage d’un gros article pour Néo Santé, sur la notion d’#antifragilité de @nntaleb. L’article paraîtra dans le courant 2018, comme dossier spécial de la revue. Bcp de liens avec l’alimentation #paleo, #movnat, le #CrossFit, etc. #Hâte #Bestbookever Permalink 11:18 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Mr @paul_salem can you reveal who funds you for such statements? Can you confirm that no Wahabi regime pays you to promote Salafism in America & steer U.S. policy in favor of Jihadis? Thank you in advance. Permalink 10:20 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Correction: 99.99% for journalism. Permalink 7:27 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 8) A more advanced discussion about “empiricism” with fat-tailed distributions.   Permalink 6:51 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 7) The saddest was when I saw Brian Greene @bgreene making the mistake, then not understanding the error. The problem: because of packages, pple use statistics mechanistically so they either forget or don’t know that “significance” is central in discussing/ comparing variables. Permalink 6:39 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb We are open for scholarships for our next seminar in Real World Risk Taking, Feb 5-9 2018. Scholarship are not based on “academic” stuff, but on more general attributes.   Permalink 5:54 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 6) What we just saw with @HEtanShah retweeted by the “highly cited” medical statistician David Spiegelhalter @d_spiegel is the justification of this tweet.   Permalink 4:46 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 5) In other words, statistics in not an IN SAMPLE description (this is called an “anecdote”) but a representation of OUT OF SAMPLE properties (those that hold outside your sample set). Permalink 4:35 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 4) @Mr Shah @HetanShah, As Head of the @RoyalStatSoc Thou Shalt Not Use Statistics in an Unrigorous Manner, in a way to make the person in the street more knowledgeable about risk than a member of the @RoyalStatSoc Permalink 4:29 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@HarryDCrane Sad but true — the RSS has taken a nosedive in past few years, as have its journals (esp Series B) Shah isn’t a statistician — not sure why RSS allows him to peddle nonsense on its behalf Permalink 4:27 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 3) At the core the “statistician” head of the Royal Society is using a variable that converged to the mean by LLN to another one that did not. Permalink 4:22 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 2) Here is a discussion of the reason.   Permalink 4:17 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb 1) Look at head statistician from the Royal Society promoting that BS. No, the 2 variables are NOT comparable statistically. Your lawnmower is not trying to kill you. @DrCirillo and I aim to put an end to this in our book.   Permalink 4:15 AM – 18 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Cooperation   Permalink 6:02 PM – 17 Dec 2017

@nntaleb This explains diseconomies of scale from hidden risk (concavity to errors) and why large companies end up vanishing in a market system. #Antifragile   Permalink 5:13 PM – 17 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Second Version of Paper on Gini with coauthors incl @DrCirillo (after requests by referees) Permalink 3:25 PM – 17 Dec 2017

@CutTheKnotMath A slight variation. Two Chickens in Boxes   #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>”> Permalink 10:39 AM – 17 Dec 2017

@nntaleb (The idea of skin in the game is to remove the mimicry by filtering via judgment by reality. Otherwise you end up with actors & parrots.) Permalink 7:53 AM – 17 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Semitic Philology du Jour: Jwz and Zwj are different roots. Jawz (for husband in Lebanese) comes from Canaanite Agoz”walnut” (i.e. dual), אֱגוֹז , while zawj (husband in both Aramaic & Arabic) come from Greek ζεύγος (pair). Permalink 6:53 AM – 17 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Interestingly, 3 out of 50 are Lebanese (Abraham, Shaheen, Issa).   Permalink 6:15 AM – 17 Dec 2017

@nntaleb In any profession, 90% of people are clueless but work by situational imitation, narrow mimicry & semi-conscious role-playing. Except social “science” and journalism where it is 99% and 100%, respectively. Permalink 4:16 AM – 17 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Ma fi sha3b bala lugha Ma fi lugha bala adab Dante 5il2 eltilyéné. Sar marja3. (Iza baddak tshuf kif ligha, t-talla3 3al Malte. Bi Malta 3emlo ligha lawa7don). Permalink 3:40 PM – 16 Dec 2017

@nntaleb niktob kitob bilighitna el 3adieh 3ni3mol ligha la2lna, jdidé mush syriené (ligha mayté). 3am bitarjim kitbé 3al libnéné (kin3ané jdid).   Permalink 11:01 AM – 16 Dec 2017

@aintgotnobrakes I can’t get this thought out of my head: “You can define a free person precisely as someone whose fate is not centrally or directly dependent on his peer assessment”   Permalink 10:35 AM – 16 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Wel qaf kamen saret 2a (7atta bil seryéné bnilfuz 2a msh qa). Hiyye “th” saret “t” min zamen (bel aramé 2al l masi7).   Permalink 10:16 AM – 16 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Thank you twitter. #Mathtwitter, @CutTheKnotMath   Permalink 9:59 AM – 16 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Notez que “seeking” dans “rent seeking” ne veut pas dire “recherche” mais exploitation. Donc rente de situation. Permalink 5:53 AM – 16 Dec 2017

@nntaleb Chers amis, est-ce que “rent seeking” correspond au vieux terme francais “rente de situation”? Permalink 5:37 AM – 16 Dec 2017

@Spfannenschmidt Nassim Taleb eyeing an IYI @nntaleb   Permalink 3:36 PM – 15 Dec 2017

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