{"id":9155,"date":"2020-11-05T00:48:19","date_gmt":"2020-11-05T08:48:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=9155"},"modified":"2020-11-05T00:48:19","modified_gmt":"2020-11-05T08:48:19","slug":"onassis-localism-testing-r0-ioannidis-walking-dawkins-heresies-borat-racist-masks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2020\/11\/onassis-localism-testing-r0-ioannidis-walking-dawkins-heresies-borat-racist-masks\/","title":{"rendered":"Onassis, Localism, Testing, R0, Ioannidis, Walking, Dawkins, HERESIES, Borat = racist, Masks"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Well, Twitter changed their code again and broke my scraper and it&#8217;s taking me a long time to find an alternative. Thing is, the reason I started collecting NNT&#8217;s tweets was because he initially was in the habit of deleting them every few months, which he has apparently stopped doing. Anyway, let&#8217;s have a look at what NNT&#8217;s been up to since mid September&#8230; Let me guess&#8230; math, and squid ink.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Can we all acknowledge that the REAL winner of this election is <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@nntaleb<\/a>\u2019s critique of election forecasting techniques, and his proposed approach\u2014treating elections like option contracts.<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/RJGpoKb28n\">https:\/\/t.co\/RJGpoKb28n<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/pcvAXG4umP\">pic.twitter.com\/pcvAXG4umP<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Franklin J. Parker, CFA (@FranklinParker1) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/FranklinParker1\/status\/1324008143412727815?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 4, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&quot;We can focus immediately on the simplest solution and the one with the smallest economic cost&#8211; testing would be the ideal solution. Why 10 months into the pandemic we still do not have systematic testing?&quot; &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@nntaleb<\/a>. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/QLttgNKA0u\">pic.twitter.com\/QLttgNKA0u<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SquawkCNBC\/status\/1323244462978596864?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 2, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&quot;You have to treat it as an opaque system. You do not know what is going to happen, and therefore it is going to be one or the other 50-50,&quot; says <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@nntaleb<\/a> on the 2020 election. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/YFAtVpRihI\">pic.twitter.com\/YFAtVpRihI<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SquawkCNBC\/status\/1323244373304397832?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 2, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2681006\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Expected Shortfall Estimation for Apparently Infinite-Mean Models of Operational Risk<\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"fm-citation half_rhythm no_top_margin clearfix\">\n<div class=\"inline_block eight_col va_top\">\n<div>\n<div><span class=\"cit\"><span role=\"menubar\"><a role=\"menuitem\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC7572356\/#\" aria-expanded=\"false\" aria-haspopup=\"true\">Int J Forecast<\/a><\/span>. 2020 Oct 20 <\/span><\/div>\n<div><span class=\"doi\">doi:\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1016%2Fj.ijforecast.2020.08.008\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">10.1016\/j.ijforecast.2020.08.008<\/a><\/span> [Epub ahead of print]<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"inline_block four_col va_top show-overflow align_right\">\n<div class=\"fm-citation-ids\">\n<div class=\"fm-citation-pmcid\"><span class=\"fm-citation-ids-label\">PMCID: <\/span>PMC7572356<\/div>\n<div class=\"fm-citation-pmid\">PMID: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pubmed\/33100449\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">33100449<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC7572356\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">On single point forecasts for fat-tailed variables<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"half_rhythm\">\n<div class=\"contrib-group fm-author\"><a id=\"au000001\" class=\"affpopup\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pubmed\/?term=Taleb%20NN%5BAuthor%5D&amp;cauthor=true&amp;cauthor_uid=33100449\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Nassim Nicholas Taleb<\/a>,<sup>a,<\/sup><sup>b,<\/sup><sup>\u204e<\/sup> <a id=\"au000002\" class=\"affpopup\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pubmed\/?term=Bar-Yam%20Y%5BAuthor%5D&amp;cauthor=true&amp;cauthor_uid=33100449\">Yaneer Bar-Yam<\/a>,<sup>c<\/sup> and <a id=\"au000003\" class=\"affpopup\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pubmed\/?term=Cirillo%20P%5BAuthor%5D&amp;cauthor=true&amp;cauthor_uid=33100449\">Pasquale Cirillo<\/a><sup>d,<\/sup><sup>e<\/sup><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/incerto\/religion-violence-tolerance-progress-nothing-to-do-with-theology-a31f351c729e\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-9161 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/..\/media\/CatharsToSlaughter.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"523\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/..\/media\/CatharsToSlaughter.jpeg 500w, https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/..\/media\/CatharsToSlaughter-287x300.jpeg 287w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/incerto\/religion-violence-tolerance-progress-nothing-to-do-with-theology-a31f351c729e\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Religion, Violence, Tolerance &amp; Progress: Nothing to do with Theology<\/a><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Corporations: the world of work in the new normal (20 OCT) V.O. | #enlightED\" width=\"625\" height=\"352\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/plim7AQU6Fw?start=768&#038;feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=plim7AQU6Fw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Corporations: the world of work in the new normal (20 OCT) V.O. | #enlightED Streamed live on Oct 20, 2020<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/YRvPF__du9w\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=YRvPF__du9w\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">How to Price an Election: A Martingale Approach- Discussion with Dhruv Madeka Oct 9, 2020<\/a><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/4Eb51iUDPkY\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=4Eb51iUDPkY\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Fake Regression by psychologists Premiered Oct 2, 2020<\/a><\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/ePmSa-n7kBA\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=ePmSa-n7kBA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">&#8216;Black Swan&#8217; Investor Nassim Taleb on Covid Misconceptions, Fed Policy, Inflation <span id=\"dot\" class=\"style-scope ytd-video-primary-info-renderer\"><\/span>Sep 22, 2020<\/a><\/p>\n<audio class=\"wp-audio-shortcode\" id=\"audio-9155-1\" preload=\"none\" style=\"width: 100%;\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"audio\/mpeg\" src=\"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/..\/media\/Black-Swan-Investor-Nassim-Taleb-on-Covid-Misconceptions-Fed-Policy-Inflation.mp3?_=1\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/..\/media\/Black-Swan-Investor-Nassim-Taleb-on-Covid-Misconceptions-Fed-Policy-Inflation.mp3\">https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/..\/media\/Black-Swan-Investor-Nassim-Taleb-on-Covid-Misconceptions-Fed-Policy-Inflation.mp3<\/a><\/audio>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.lesechos.fr\/idees-debats\/livres\/nassim-nicholas-taleb-ou-la-vertu-de-lincertitude-1243626#xtor=CS1-3046\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Nassim Nicholas Taleb ou la vertu de l&#8217;incertitude<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Well, Twitter changed their code again and broke my scraper and it&#8217;s taking me a long time to find an alternative. Thing is, the reason I started collecting NNT&#8217;s tweets was because he initially was in the habit of deleting them every few months, which he has apparently stopped doing. Anyway, let&#8217;s have a look [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9155","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-contributors"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9155","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9155"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9155\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9164,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9155\/revisions\/9164"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9155"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9155"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9155"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}